• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.187-198
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• 2020

This study extracted deforestation area and degraded forestland area, which are potential REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) project candidate areas in Paraguay using Land Cover Map (LCM) and Tree Cover Map (TCM). The REDD+ project objectives scenarios were set three stages: 'afforestation and economic efficiency scenario', 'local capacity reinforcement scenario', and 'Infrastructure-oriented scenario'. And then, we evaluated the project unit suitable area of the REDD+ project. All scenarios selected the evaluation factors for each scenario in addition to the area ratio factors for deforestation area and degraded forestland area and weighted values were extracted by assigning category scores. As a result of the three scenarios comparison analysis, Concepcion state score was the highest. Within Concepcion state, the Belon district had the highest score, making it appropriate as a project unit REDD+ project candidate area in Paraguay, while the San Carlos district had the lowest score. This study can be used as basic data for selecting REDD+ project candidate area in Paraguay, and it is expected to contribute sufficiently to REDD+ project if additional data or information of social, cultural and economic sectors are secured.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 1998년도 Proceedings of International Symposium on Remote Sensing
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• pp.3-8
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• 1998

Using GIS and socio-economical data the relationship between human activities and global environmental change Is Analysed from the view point of food productivity and CO2 emission. Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption of food, energy and timber on global environment changes, and global population capacity are Analysed using developed system dynamics model in the research. In the model the world is divided into two groups: OECD countries and the others. Used global land use data set Is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Clamor and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of CO2 emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback. The results of the analysis for BaU scenario and Toronto Conference scenario are similar to the results of existing models. From the result of this study, the human habitability in 2020 is 8 billion people, and CO2 emission in 2020 based on BaU Scenario and on Toronto Scenario is 1.7 and 1.2 times more than the 1986's respectively. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data to distribute the environmental variables and sauce-economical indices is left for further studies.

• Water Engineering Research
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• 제1권4호
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• pp.267-277
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• 2000

This study reports an examination of the sensitivity of water resources in the Keum River basin to climate change. Assuming a doubling in $CO_2$ concentrations, a cooperative study provided four climate change scenarios for this study, which have been translated into temperature and precipitation scenarios on a basin scale. The study utilized these temperature and precipitation data for each climate change scenario as inputs to the NWS-PC model to generate the corresponding streamflow scenario over the Keum River basin. A reservoir simulation model for the Dae-Chung Dam in the Keum River basin has been developed with an object-oriented simulation environment, STELLA. For each streamflow scenario, the performance of the reservoir was assessed in terms of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability. Although the simulation results are heavily dependent on the choice of the climate change scenarios, the following conclusions can be clearly concluded: (1) the future streamflow over the Dae-Chung Dam tends to decease during the dry period, which seriously increases competitive water use issues and (2) flood control issues predominate under the $2CO_2$-High case.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.133-144
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• 2020

Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제55권4호
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• pp.73-82
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• 2013

The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.520-537
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• 2019

This paper proposes a system that can detect the data leakage pattern using a convolutional neural network based on defining the behaviors of leaking data. In this case, the leakage detection scenario of data leakage is composed of the patterns of occurrence of security logs by administration and related patterns between the security logs that are analyzed by association relationship analysis. This proposed system then detects whether the data is leaked through the convolutional neural network using an insider malicious behavior graph. Since each graph is drawn according to the leakage detection scenario of a data leakage, the system can identify the criminal insider along with the source of malicious behavior according to the results of the convolutional neural network. The results of the performance experiment using a virtual scenario show that even if a new malicious pattern that has not been previously defined is inputted into the data leakage detection system, it is possible to determine whether the data has been leaked. In addition, as compared with other data leakage detection systems, it can be seen that the proposed system is able to detect data leakage more flexibly.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 2th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.459-468
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• 2007

The u-City construction project has become a hot topic in the construction market because it seems economic value-added field for construction firms. However, construction firms don't willingly participate in the u-City construction market because environments of the future business for the u-City are very uncertain. Scenario planning is a very powerful method in managing this uncertain planning situation and is based on scenarios that help each enterprise appropriately adapt itself to its own business environments. Therefore it is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. For the purpose of dealing with such uncertainties, this paper attempts to develop the possible market scenarios of the u-City construction market in S.Korea through a scenario planning approach. From this perspective, we considered various aspects of the u-City construction such as market demands, technology development, policy level and management environment. After considering the relevant issues, we identified the main trends and key uncertainties. Finally, we developed three coherent u-City construction market scenarios. Construction firms can use these scenarios as a basic reference for market analysis and business strategy. Therefore, this paper is able to enhance the participation of construction firms in the u-City construction market.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.11-17
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• 2006

In this paper, crashworthiness of EMU carbody against overhead line structure is numerically evaluated. The material of the EMU carbody is made of stainless steel(SS301L). The material of the overhead line structure(a portal-type) is structure steel (SS400). The EMU carbody is numerically analyzed under collision conditions such as upright side-on impact scenario and angled impact scenario to collide against overhead line structure(a portal-type) at 64.6 kph, respectively.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국컴퓨터정보학회 2019년도 제60차 하계학술대회논문집 27권2호
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• pp.123-124
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• 2019

본 논문에서는 안전관리를 시나리오 모델의 환경을 고려한다. 안전관리에 대해서 보통의 경우 사고의 재발 환경이 높은 곳에서 그 필요성이 절실히 요구된다. 따라서 안전관리의 필요성이 제시된 곳에서 그 환경에 적용될 수 있는 시나리오의 모델을 추출해야 한다. 시나리오 모델들의 추출은 시나리오 적용 지역의 환경 분석을 통하여 대상 요소를 분석하여 구축하여야 한다.

• 자동차안전학회지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.5-11
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• 2012

This paper discusses the evaluation of the safety impact of the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in Korea. To evaluate the safety impact, this paper suggests an analysis method by using the test scenario and field operational test data. The test scenario is composed to represent the main component factor of the ACC system and ACC related accident situation such as rear-end collision, lane-change, and road-curvature, etc. Also, from the field operation test data, the system's potential to increase the safety can be measured ideally. Besides, field operational testdata was used to revise the expected safety impact value as Korean road conditions. By using the proposed evaluation method, enhanced safety impact of the ACC system can be estimated scientifically.