• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.65-74
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• 2017

An analysis of elderly behavior at home needs to be meticulously understood in order to build a spatial environment where the elderly can live safe and independent lives. To this end, the following study analyzed elderly behavior that occurs in the home, constructed personas, and developed persona-based scenarios of elderly behavior at home. Persona was composed of behavioral characteristics, spatial characteristics, and personal characteristics (gender, age, disease etc) that have a direct effect on living activities in the home, so it was intended to express a more real persona. The study developed six personas based on the behavioral and mobility characteristics of the elderly, and scenarios for each persona developed bsed on the following eight behaviors: toilet use, bating/Shower, washing and grooming, having meal, sleeping, dressing/undressing, laundering clothes, and getting out of home). Through this, the study determined the characteristics and difficulty level of various sub-behaviors and actions that occur in elderly behaviors at home. It also determined characteristics related to the use of physical elements such as equipment and furniture that are a part of those sub-behaviors. The behavior scenarios developed in this study can be utilized to understand the difficulties involved in elderly behavior, and to present a spatial plan and remodeling direction that alleviates such difficulties. This study is also significant that it investigates the applicability of persona-based scenario method on residential architecture.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.107-121
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• 2011

To assess the impact of climate change on water quality in an impounded river basin, this study estimated future air temperature and rainfall in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080 by statistically downscaling the simulation results from two GCM models combined with two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). Both scenarios were selected from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) suggested by IPCC. The A2 scenario represents an extreme condition whereas the B1 scenario represents a clean and energy efficient condition which is similar to that of study basin. With the results of estimated climate factors and land use data, the discharge and the concentrations of BOD, TN and TP in the Andong dam basins were simulated using the SWAT model. The change in BOD concentration for the B1 emission scenario was greater than the A2 scenario in the annual increase range and the pollution level. The concentration of TN was decreased during March? June which is drought period and increased again afterward. In contrast to TN, the concentration of TP was generally decreased. The change in TP concentration was greater for the B1 scenario than the A2 scenario.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.227-234
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• 2011

In the study, CE-QUAL-W2 was used and its examination and correction were conducted targeting 2001 and 2003 when the condition of rainfall was contradicted. Using the proved model in 2003, a scenario was implemented with management of locations for dewatering outlets and actual data for dam management in 1987 when inflow and outflow level were almost same. In case of the scenario which the location of dewatering outlets was 5m higher than usual location, exclusion efficiency for turbid water inflow at the beginning of precipitation was good. In case of the scenario which the location of dewatering outlets was 10m lower than usual location, exclusion efficiency for excluding turbid water remained in a reservoir after the end of precipitation. However, the scenario applying dam management data in 1987, exclusion efficiency was relatively low. In the scenario, power-generating water release spot at EL.57m for first four days after the beginning of precipitation, EL.52m for 5th to 8th and EL.42m from 9th days. An analysis of the scenario reveals that both excessive days exceeded 30 NTU and average turbidity levels were decreased comparing before and after the alteration on outlets. The average turbidity levels were decreased by minimum of 55% to maximum of 70% and 30NTU exceeding days were decreased by 45 days at maximum. Also, since it could exclude most of turbid water in a reservoir before the destatifcation, the risk for turbid water evenly distributed in a reservoir along with turn-over could be decreased as well.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.63-71
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• 2013

Developing future weapons systems has become increasingly complicated and costly. There, modeling and simulation techniques have been highly interested in developing the defense systems. Modeling and simulation techniques provide a means to simulate military training, strategies, military doctrines, and weapons acquisition. In this paper, we proposed a small scale engagement scenario generation method for engagement M&S model. Generated scenario is one of critical factors in the field of commander training, operational analysis, and tactical evaluation. The objective of this paper is to develop a scenario generation method for small scale engagement using the FSA(Finite State Automata) and DFS(Depth First Search) algorithm. The proposed method is verified using a one-on-one combat engagement scenario between assault ship and reconnaissance ship. Also, we are visualized using Delta3D$^{TM}$.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.29-48
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• 2012

As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.34 no.7
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• pp.587-594
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• 2010

The positive and negative opinion to cargo demand of Incheon's SAMT in the near future remains cloudy. Considering port and shipping environmental changes and the logistics situation of China which explains the lack of facilities in Chinese airports, the creating of SAMT cargoes of the Incheon region could catches a favorable opportunity to be a logistics hub in the North-East Asia. On the other hand, as open-sky policy and direct-call service has been carried out between China and N.A.(North America), Incheon could cause a loss of competitiveness in SAMT because the enhancement in the aspect of the connectivity of Chinese airlines and shipping lines makes customer sent to last destination their cargoes whenever they want. In the same context, this paper analyses on conditions of domestic and international SAMT and proposes in this uncertainty future forecasting of SAMT of Incheon by scenario planning according to changes in integrated SAMT, measuring the likelihood of final scenario. This study shows the Sea & Air multi-transport volume will have either slight increase or decrease from the current condition. Consequently, RFS expansion and system & service improvement through strong ties with major cities in China will be required in a short run aspect. Nonetheless, we also need to take domestic & international transportation environment into account in the long run.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.25-51
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• 2015

The purpose of this paper is to analyze nutrients dynamics depending on biomass of Menyanthes trifoliata L., the endangered species, in a small closed-type wetland. In order to understand dynamics between Menyanthes trifoliata L. and eutrophication, causal loops and stock-flow diagram were constructed. The result of the model simulation was matched well with monitoring data (Menyanthes trifoliata L. biomass, TN, TP, DO). The model was simulated with 3 scenarios. In case of scenario 1, the initial value of biomass was 0mg/L, and the eutrophic state period was 77 days. In case of scenario 2, the initial value of biomass was 35.8 mg/L, and the eutrophic state lasted for 13 days. In case of scenario 3, the initial value of biomass was 71.6 mg/L, and the eutrophic state was nonexistent. The scenario 3 was selected as planting plan of Menyanthes trifoliata L. Through this study, planting design with an endangered plant was developed to control eutrophication in small closed-type wetland.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.4 no.5
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• pp.641-653
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• 2008

This paper proposes a practical and realistic method to establish an optimal lifetime maintenance strategy for deteriorating bridges by considering the life-cycle performance as well as the life-cycle cost. The proposed method offers a set of optimal tradeoff maintenance scenarios among other conflicting objectives, such as minimizing cost and maximizing performance. A genetic algorithm is used to generate a set of maintenance scenarios that is a multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem related to the lifetime performance and the life-cycle cost as separate objective functions. A computer program, which generates optimal maintenance scenarios, was developed based on the proposed method using the life-cycle costs and the performance of bridges. The subordinate relation between bridge members has been considered to decide optimal maintenance sequence and a corresponding algorithm has been implemented into the program. The developed program has been used to present a procedure for finding an optimal maintenance scenario for steel-girder bridges on the Korean National Road. Through this bridge maintenance scenario analysis, it is expected that the developed method and program can be effectively used to allow bridge managers an optimal maintenance strategy satisfying various constraints and requirements.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.65-76
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• 2018

Recently, most of the information system use environment is changing to GUI environment based on windows and web. Most of the development tools for building such a GUI-based information system support object-oriented and event-driven programming concepts. However, there is still a lack of a development methodology that systematically supports event-based information system construction. From a business perspective, an information system is one that supports business processes efficiently and effectively to improve business performance. These business processes are composed of business activities which involve a series of business events. A business event is executed according to a business scenario. Therefore, it is necessary to grasp these events in the requirements analysis stage and to apply it on the system development methodology. However, information systems development methodology which systematically reflect the event processing concept still is insufficient. From this viewpoint, this paper proposes an event-driven scenario-based development methodology that can meet the recent development environment of information systems, and applies the proposed methodology to a small scale information system development case.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.187-198
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• 2020

This study extracted deforestation area and degraded forestland area, which are potential REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) project candidate areas in Paraguay using Land Cover Map (LCM) and Tree Cover Map (TCM). The REDD+ project objectives scenarios were set three stages: 'afforestation and economic efficiency scenario', 'local capacity reinforcement scenario', and 'Infrastructure-oriented scenario'. And then, we evaluated the project unit suitable area of the REDD+ project. All scenarios selected the evaluation factors for each scenario in addition to the area ratio factors for deforestation area and degraded forestland area and weighted values were extracted by assigning category scores. As a result of the three scenarios comparison analysis, Concepcion state score was the highest. Within Concepcion state, the Belon district had the highest score, making it appropriate as a project unit REDD+ project candidate area in Paraguay, while the San Carlos district had the lowest score. This study can be used as basic data for selecting REDD+ project candidate area in Paraguay, and it is expected to contribute sufficiently to REDD+ project if additional data or information of social, cultural and economic sectors are secured.