• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.24 no.63
• /
• pp.33-43
• /
• 2001

To estimate the reliability of a large and complex network with a small variance, we propose two dynamic Monte Carlo sampling methods: the sequential minimal cut set (SMCS) and the sequential minimal path set (SMPS) methods. These methods do not require all minimal cut sets or path sets to be given in advance and do not simulate all arcs at each trial, which can decrease the valiance of network reliability. Based on the proposed methods, we develop the importance sampling estimators, the total hazard (or safety) estimator and the hazard (or safety) importance sampling estimator, and compare the performance of these simulation estimators. It is found that these estimators can significantly reduce the variance of the raw simulation estimator and the usual importance sampling estimator. Especially, the SMCS algorithm is very effective in case that the failure probabilities of arcs are low. On the contrary, the SMPS algorithm is effective in case that the success Probabilities of arcs are low.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
• /
• v.22 no.5
• /
• pp.1097-1106
• /
• 1997

Most works on importance sampling (IS) as an efficient evaluation technique havd been done in an additibe white gaussian noise channel (Awgn). In this paper we propose a CQ(conventional importance sampling and quasi-translantion) IS technique for the mobile radio channel modeled as Rician fading, and analyze the IS estimator's variance to determine optimum IS parameters and the minimum number of run times. Reference showed that CIS technique has a poor performance for systems with meories, but it is shown that the CIS technique can be improved by combining with quasi-translation technique even for systems with memories. Here the CQ IS technique modifies the variance of additive noise and also performs quasi-translation for the fading distribution. We determine the optimum IS parameters of the proposed CQ IS estimator and whow that the simulation gains are about 10$^{3}$~10$^{6}$ for the mobile communication systems with memories in case of the expected BERs 10$^{-5}$ ~10$^{-8}$ .

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.3-14
• /
• 1980

This paper is concerned with the design of an appropriate sampling plan or stopping rule and the construction of estimate for the estimation of process or lot fraction defective. Various sampling plans which are well known or have potential applications are unified into a generalized sampling plan. Under this sampling plan sufficient statistic, probability distribution, moment, and minimum variance unbiased estimate are obtained. Results for various sampling plans can be derived as special cases. Then, under given parameter values, the relative efficiencies of the various sampling plans are compared with respect to expected sample sizes and variances of estimates.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.12 no.1
• /
• pp.36-45
• /
• 1983

After every decennial census in the U.S., national surveys such as the Consumer Expenditures surveys are redesigned. The redesigned samples will be multi-stage systematic samples. Many sampling schemes have been proposed for comparison which requires the estimation and variance estiamtion formula. This paper deals with the surveys redesign research which concerns the sample design within the Primary Sampling Unit (PSU). In constructing the estimators it deals with the problem of which first stage inflation factor to use. The expected value of the proposed estimators is also derived.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
• /
• 2002.07b
• /
• pp.1153-1156
• /
• 2002

In this parer, a high quality mesh generation method by using interval arithmetic is proposed. In the proposed method, the variance of a tangent vector at the point is considered by the automatic differentiation. From the variance, sampling points on the surface are judged whether it is adequate or not, which is calculated by the interval arithmetic. Then Delaunay triangulation is performed to the obtained sampling points, and a set of meshes is generated. The proposed method is hard to overlook the local variation of surfaces.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
• /
• 2003.10a
• /
• pp.201-205
• /
• 2003

We show how some probability nonreplacement sampling designs can be implemented using nonlinear programming, The efficiency of the proposed approach is compared with selected probability sampling schemes in the literature. The approach is simple to use and appears to have reasonable variance.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.19 no.1
• /
• pp.23-32
• /
• 2012

This paper deals with the bias and variance of regression coefficient estimators in a finite population. We derive approximate formulas for the bias, variance and mean square error of two estimators when we select a fixed-size inclusion probability proportional to the size sample and then estimate regression coefficients by the ordinary least square estimator as well as the weighted least square estimator based on the selected sample data. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the comparison of the two estimators in terms of variance and mean square error are suggested. In addition, a simple example is introduced to numerically compare the variance and mean square error of the two estimators.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.7
• /
• pp.1-15
• /
• 2022

Combining the strength of both Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) Regression and realized variance measures, this paper seeks to investigate two objectives: (1) evaluate the post-sample performance of the proposed weekly Realized Variance-MIDAS (RVar-MIDAS) in one-week ahead volatility forecasting against the established Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and the less explored but robust STES (Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing) methods. (2) comparing forecast error performance between realized variance and squared residuals measures as a proxy for actual volatility. Data of seven private equity mutual fund indices (generated from 57 individual funds) from two different time periods (with and without financial crisis) are applied to 21 models. Robustness of the post-sample volatility forecasting of all models is validated by the Model Confidence Set (MCS) Procedures and revealed: (1) The weekly RVar-MIDAS model emerged as the best model, outperformed the robust DAILY-STES methods, and the weekly DAILY-GARCH models, particularly during a volatile period. (2) models with realized variance measured in estimation and as a proxy for actual volatility outperformed those using squared residual. This study contributes an empirical approach to one-week ahead volatility forecasting of mutual funds return, which is less explored in past literature on financial volatility forecasting compared to stocks volatility.

• International Journal of Contents
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2007

The distributions of the minimum correlated F-variable arises in many applied statistical problems including simultaneous analysis of variance (SANOVA), equality of variance, selection and ranking populations, and reliability analysis. In this paper, negative binomial sampling technique is employed to derive the distributions of the minimum of chi-square variables and hence the distributions of the minimum correlated F-variables. The work presented in this paper is divided in two parts. The first part is devoted to develop some combinatorial identities arised from the negative binomial sampling. These identities are constructed and justified to serve important purpose, when we deal with these distributions or their characteristics. Other important results including cumulants and moments of these distributions are also given in somewhat simple forms. Second, the distributions of minimum, chisquare variable and hence the distribution of the minimum correlated F-variables are then derived within the negative binomial sampling framework. Although, multinomial theory applied to order statistics and standard transformation techniques can be used to derive these distributions, the negative binomial sampling approach provides more information regarding the nature of the relationship between the sampling vehicle and the probability distributions of these functions of chi-square variables. We also provide an algorithm to compute the percentage points of the distributions. The computation methods we adopted are exact and no interpolations are involved.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.29 no.4
• /
• pp.385-394
• /
• 2000

Jackknife variance estimation based on adjusted imputed values when nonresponse is nonrandom and follow-up data are available for a subsample of nonrespondents is provided. Both hot-deck and ratio imputation method are considered as imputation method. The performance of the proposed variance estimator under nonrandom response mechanism is investigated through numerical simulation.