• Title/Summary/Keyword: Safety Estimation

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Conclusions and Suggestions on Low-Dose and Low-Dose Rate Radiation Risk Estimation Methodology

  • Sakai, Kazuo;Yamada, Yutaka;Yoshida, Kazuo;Yoshinaga, Shinji;Sato, Kaoru;Ogata, Hiromitsu;Iwasaki, Toshiyasu;Kudo, Shin'ichi;Asada, Yasuki;Kawaguchi, Isao;Haeno, Hiroshi;Sasaki, Michiya
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.14-23
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    • 2021
  • Background: For radiological protection and control, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) provides the nominal risk coefficients related to radiation exposure, which can be extrapolated using the excess relative risk and excess absolute risk obtained from the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki with the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). Materials and Methods: Since it is impossible to directly estimate the radiation risk at doses less than approximately 100 mSv only from epidemiological knowledge and data, support from radiation biology is absolutely imperative, and thus, several national and international bodies have advocated the importance of bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology. Because of the accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, the exposure of the public to radiation has become a major concern and it was considered that the estimation of radiation risk should be more realistic to cope with the prevailing radiation exposure situation. Results and Discussion: To discuss the issues from wide aspects related to radiological protection, and to realize bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology, we have established a research group to develop low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation risk estimation methodology, with the permission of the Japan Health Physics Society. Conclusion: The aim of the research group was to clarify the current situation and issues related to the risk estimation of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure from the viewpoints of different research fields, such as epidemiology, biology, modeling, and dosimetry, to identify a future strategy and roadmap to elucidate a more realistic estimation of risk against low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure.

Comparative Study on the Estimation Methods of Traffic Crashes: Empirical Bayes Estimate vs. Observed Crash (교통사고 추정방법 비교 연구: 경험적 베이즈 추정치 vs. 관측교통사고건수)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2010
  • In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.

Quantitative Safety Assessment for Hydrogen Station (수소 충전소에 대한 정량적 안전성 평가)

  • Seong, D.H.;Rhie, K.W.;Kim, T.H.;Oh, D.S.;Oh, Y.D.;Seo, D.H.;Kim, Y.G.;Kim, E.J.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.111-116
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    • 2012
  • This study is about the quantitative safety assessment of hydrogen station in Korea operating with on-site type. This was written by background information that before qualitative safety assessment to write. For the qualitative safety assessment method, the study used FMEA(failure mode & effect analysis) and HAZOP(hazard & operability), and adopted the FTA(fault tree analysis) as the quantitative safety assessment method. To write the FTA, we wrote FT by Top event that hydrogen leakage can be called most serious accident of hydrogen station. Each base event collect reliability data by reliability data handbook, THERP-HRA and estimation of the engineering. Assessment looked at the high frequency and the possible risk through Gate, Importance, m.cutsets analysis.

A Study on the Safety Culture and Effective Management System (안전문화와 효율적 안전경영 방안 연구)

  • Yi Kwan Hyung;Oh Ji Young
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2005
  • Recently in Korean Society, risk and safety has become a central discourse in not only the social and natural science but also political decision making. The efficient organizational management contributes to controlling the risk factors in the workplace. For the management is influenced and improved by the organizational culture, the alternatives more than simply improving the work environment or enforcing the education of safety on each workers are required. This study was the status of safety culture in organizational members(managers and workers, and specialist) including the attitude on the safety atmosphere and risk perception, and experiences, knowledges, motivation etc. For this part, the method of questionnaire and statistical analysis are mobilized. The degree of safety commitment of organization members appears relatively high (3.97 in five scale estimation), but there are variations in this results according to socio-demographic characteristics. At the same time, managers and professionals actively participation in the program related to safety than workers in production/sales. The higher income level and career is the more attention to the safety is. Based on this survey, we make an rough suggestion of several tasks to the policy -makers: improvement of communication on the risk and safety is required and in particular, the workers in the relatively low level in production/sales. The education system about safety which is, with one-side, provided by government or managers turns out to be inefficient. Rather, small group performance of the organizational members which they participate in the communication with interaction in the various discourse are able to provoke the safety mood in workplace.

Development of maintenance cost estimation method considering bridge performance changes (교량 성능변화를 고려한 유지관리비용 추계분석 방법 개발)

  • Sun, Jong-Wan;Lee, Huseok;Park, Kyung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.717-724
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    • 2018
  • To prepare for the explosive increase in maintenance costs of bridges according to the aging of infrastructure, future maintenance costs of bridges should be predicted. For this purpose, the management status of bridges was investigated and modeled as the upper limit of the performance level and the target management level according to the life cycle. This paper proposes methodologies and procedures for estimating the bridge maintenance costs using two models and existing cost and performance prediction models that consist of unit repair cost model according to the safety score, performance degradation model of bridges, unit reconstruction cost, and average reconstruction time. To verify the applicability, future maintenance costs can be forecasted for specific management agency considering the number of bridges, degree of aging, and current management status. As a result, it is possible to obtain the maintenance cost and safety level of an individual bridge level for each year. In addition, by summing them up to the agency level, the average safety score, ratio of the safety level, inspection costs, repair costs, and reconstruction costs can be obtained. In a further study, the changes in maintenance costs can be analyzed according to the changes in the target management levels using the developed method. The optimal management level can be suggested by reviewing the results.

Interpretation of Quality Statistics Using Sampling Error (샘플링오차에 의한 품질통계 모형의 해석)

  • Choi, Sung-Woon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.205-210
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    • 2008
  • The research interprets the principles of sampling error design for quality statistics models such as hypothesis test, interval estimation, control charts and acceptance sampling. Introducing the proper discussions of the design of significance level according to the use of hypothesis test, then it presents two methods to interpret significance by Neyman-Pearson and Fisher. Second point of the study proposes the design of confidence level for interval estimation by Bayesian confidence set, frequentist confidential set and fiducial interval. Third, the content also indicates the design of type I error and type II error considering both productivity and customer claim for control chart. Finally, the study reflects the design of producer's risk with operating charistictics curve, screening and switch rules for the purpose of purchasing and subcontraction.

A Study on Endurance Estimation of 3D Sprag Type Ultra Precision Reverse-Locking Clutches under Contact Condition (접촉상태에 있는 의 초정밀 역전방지클러치의 3D SPRAG TYPE 내구성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 이상범;서정세;이석순;이태선;최중환
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.1429-1433
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    • 2004
  • Recently, a dangerous event occurred at the field industry and mechanical system. At developed by SUNGGOK corp. a R-L clutches of a small and high capacity serves safety device from a variety environment of mechanical system, it permits transmission of driving torque form input to output shaft in both directions of rotation, but restrains any feedback torque of the driven load from rotating the output shaft in either direction. This study was carried out to demonstrate through finite element methode and durability estimation for safety of the R-L clutches without sliding during the engagement process. As results, we organized about endurance test methode when applied rated torque.

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Estimation of Wind Speeds for Return Period in Cellularized District of Basan by the Recent Meteorological Data (최근 기상 자료에 의한 부산의 세분화된 지역별 재현기대 풍속 산정)

  • An, Jae-Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.158-163
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    • 2012
  • This study is concerned with the estimation of wind speeds for return period in cellularized district of Busan by the recent meteorological data. Recently standard of the wind load in Busan area is determined by using meteorological wind speed data which is observed on Automated Synoptic Observing System(ASOS) only. Applying the existing basic wind speed that is 40m/s to the construction design of Busan area is inefficient. Because the wind speeds of Busan area show different amounts depend on the location of cellularized district. This research analyze the observed data of wind speeds of cellularized district in Busan based on Automate Weather System(AWA). In addition that we compute regional wind speeds for return period by using Gumbel distribution and study and compare with the existing basic wind speeds after evaluating appropriateness by Hazen's plot method.

Design of Lane Keeping Steering Assist Controller Using Vehicle Lateral Disturbance Estimation under Cross Wind (횡풍하의 차량 외란 추정을 이용한 차선 유지 조향 보조 제어기 설계)

  • Lim, Hyeongho;Joa, Eunhyek;Yi, Kyongsu
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents steering controller for unintended lane departure avoidance under crosswind using vehicle lateral disturbance estimation. Vehicles exposed to crosswind are more likely to deviate from lane, which can lead to accidents. To prevent this, a lateral disturbance estimator and steering controller for compensating disturbance have been proposed. The disturbance affecting lateral motion of the vehicle is estimated using Kalman filter, which is on the basis of the 2-DOF bicycle model and Electric Power Steering (EPS) module. A sliding mode controller is designed to avoid unintended the lane departure using the estimated disturbance. The controller is based on the 2-DOF bicycle model and the vision-based error dynamic model. A torque controller is used to provide appropriate assist torque to driver. The performance of proposed estimator and controller is evaluated via computer simulation using Matlab/Simulink.

A Study on the Improvement Scheme of the Total Water Pollution Load Management Plan (수질오염총량관리 계획수립의 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Il;Yi, Sang-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.977-981
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    • 2006
  • In order to improve water quality in drinking water sources, Ministry of Environment (MOE) was implemented total water pollution load management (TWPLM) in all the major river basins. From the experience of the application of TWPLM, we could find some problems relating the target watershed, standard operating procedure (SOP) of establishment and implementation plan, water quality and flow rate, design flow, water quality model, margin of safety (MOS), and estimation of wasteload were found. The authors were reviewed ongoing TWPLM and presented the improvement schemes for a successful TWPLM. For the application of these suggestions, further detailed studies should be done to implement TWPLM in the future.