• 제목/요약/키워드: Safety Estimation

검색결과 1,647건 처리시간 0.03초

Conclusions and Suggestions on Low-Dose and Low-Dose Rate Radiation Risk Estimation Methodology

  • Sakai, Kazuo;Yamada, Yutaka;Yoshida, Kazuo;Yoshinaga, Shinji;Sato, Kaoru;Ogata, Hiromitsu;Iwasaki, Toshiyasu;Kudo, Shin'ichi;Asada, Yasuki;Kawaguchi, Isao;Haeno, Hiroshi;Sasaki, Michiya
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제46권1호
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    • pp.14-23
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    • 2021
  • Background: For radiological protection and control, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) provides the nominal risk coefficients related to radiation exposure, which can be extrapolated using the excess relative risk and excess absolute risk obtained from the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki with the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). Materials and Methods: Since it is impossible to directly estimate the radiation risk at doses less than approximately 100 mSv only from epidemiological knowledge and data, support from radiation biology is absolutely imperative, and thus, several national and international bodies have advocated the importance of bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology. Because of the accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, the exposure of the public to radiation has become a major concern and it was considered that the estimation of radiation risk should be more realistic to cope with the prevailing radiation exposure situation. Results and Discussion: To discuss the issues from wide aspects related to radiological protection, and to realize bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology, we have established a research group to develop low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation risk estimation methodology, with the permission of the Japan Health Physics Society. Conclusion: The aim of the research group was to clarify the current situation and issues related to the risk estimation of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure from the viewpoints of different research fields, such as epidemiology, biology, modeling, and dosimetry, to identify a future strategy and roadmap to elucidate a more realistic estimation of risk against low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure.

교통사고 추정방법 비교 연구: 경험적 베이즈 추정치 vs. 관측교통사고건수 (Comparative Study on the Estimation Methods of Traffic Crashes: Empirical Bayes Estimate vs. Observed Crash)

  • 신강원
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제30권5D호
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2010
  • 교통안전연구에서 한 지점 (또는 구간)의 기대교통사고건수를 신뢰성 높게 추정하는 것은 매우 중요하다. 기대교통사고건수를 추정하기 위해 현재 국내에서는 주로 관측교통사고건수를 사용하고 있으나 국외에서는 포아송-감마 혼합모형에 기반한 경험적 베이즈 추정치를 활용하고 있는 추세이다. 그간 많은 연구들이 경험적 베이즈 추정치를 이용해 기대교통사고건수 추정 및 교통안전개선사업의 평가를 시도 하였으나 전술한 2가지 추정방법의 추정오차를 비교연구한 문헌은 없는 실정인 바 본 연구는 2가지 추정방법의 추정오차를 모의실험을 통해 비교 분석하여 제시하였다. 모의 발생된 총 3,000,000개 지점의 교통사고 자료를 분석한 결과 기대교통사고건수를 경험적 베이즈 추정방법을 이용해 추정했을 경우 그 추정오차는 관측교통 사고건수만을 이용했을 때 발생하는 추정오차에 비해 항상 작은 것으로 나타나 국내의 교통안전연구 가이드라인에 경험적 베이지안 추정방법의 도입이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. 그러나 사전분포의 불확실성이 높아질수록 두 가지 추정방법의 추정오차의 차이는 감소하는 것으로 나타나, 기대교통사고건수 추정 시 추정된 음이항 모형에 대한 종합적인 검증을 수행한 후 신뢰성 있는 초모수의 추정치를 이용해 경험적 베이지안 방법을 적용하는 것이 바람직하다고 판단된다.

수소 충전소에 대한 정량적 안전성 평가 (Quantitative Safety Assessment for Hydrogen Station)

  • 성대현;이광원;김태훈;오동석;오영달;서두현;김영규;김은정
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제27권3호
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    • pp.111-116
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    • 2012
  • This study is about the quantitative safety assessment of hydrogen station in Korea operating with on-site type. This was written by background information that before qualitative safety assessment to write. For the qualitative safety assessment method, the study used FMEA(failure mode & effect analysis) and HAZOP(hazard & operability), and adopted the FTA(fault tree analysis) as the quantitative safety assessment method. To write the FTA, we wrote FT by Top event that hydrogen leakage can be called most serious accident of hydrogen station. Each base event collect reliability data by reliability data handbook, THERP-HRA and estimation of the engineering. Assessment looked at the high frequency and the possible risk through Gate, Importance, m.cutsets analysis.

안전문화와 효율적 안전경영 방안 연구 (A Study on the Safety Culture and Effective Management System)

  • 이관형;오지영
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2005
  • Recently in Korean Society, risk and safety has become a central discourse in not only the social and natural science but also political decision making. The efficient organizational management contributes to controlling the risk factors in the workplace. For the management is influenced and improved by the organizational culture, the alternatives more than simply improving the work environment or enforcing the education of safety on each workers are required. This study was the status of safety culture in organizational members(managers and workers, and specialist) including the attitude on the safety atmosphere and risk perception, and experiences, knowledges, motivation etc. For this part, the method of questionnaire and statistical analysis are mobilized. The degree of safety commitment of organization members appears relatively high (3.97 in five scale estimation), but there are variations in this results according to socio-demographic characteristics. At the same time, managers and professionals actively participation in the program related to safety than workers in production/sales. The higher income level and career is the more attention to the safety is. Based on this survey, we make an rough suggestion of several tasks to the policy -makers: improvement of communication on the risk and safety is required and in particular, the workers in the relatively low level in production/sales. The education system about safety which is, with one-side, provided by government or managers turns out to be inefficient. Rather, small group performance of the organizational members which they participate in the communication with interaction in the various discourse are able to provoke the safety mood in workplace.

교량 성능변화를 고려한 유지관리비용 추계분석 방법 개발 (Development of maintenance cost estimation method considering bridge performance changes)

  • 선종완;이후석;박경훈
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제19권12호
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    • pp.717-724
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    • 2018
  • 사회기반시설물의 노후화에 따른 교량 유지관리비용의 급격한 증가에 대비하기 위해서는 미래 발생 가능한 유지관리비용의 예측이 선행되어야 한다. 이를 위해 본 논문에서는 교량 관리주체의 유지관리 현황 분석을 통해 교량의 관리수준을 파악하고, 이를 생애주기에 따른 목표관리수준과 성능향상 한계 값으로 모델링하였다. 이와 함께 교량 안전점수에 따른 보수보강비용 예측모델, 성능열화모델, 평균개축비용단가, 평균 개축시기로 구성된 기존의 비용 및 성능 예측모델과 연계하여, 교량 유지관리비용 추계분석을 위한 방법론 및 절차를 제안하였다. 제안된 방법의 활용성 검증을 위해 특정 관리주체가 관리하는 교량의 규모, 노후화 정도, 현재 관리현황을 고려하여 미래 유지관리비용 추계 분석을 수행하였다. 연차별로 개별 교량 수준의 안전등급과 유지관리 조치에 따른 비용 추정 결과와 이들을 관리주체 수준으로 합산하여 연차별 평균 안전점수, 안전등급 구성비, 점검진단비용, 보수보강비용, 개축비용을 합리적으로 추정할 수 있다. 향후 목표성능관리수준의 변경에 따른 생애주기 예산의 변화를 추정하여 최적의 관리수준을 제안할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

샘플링오차에 의한 품질통계 모형의 해석 (Interpretation of Quality Statistics Using Sampling Error)

  • 최성운
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.205-210
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    • 2008
  • The research interprets the principles of sampling error design for quality statistics models such as hypothesis test, interval estimation, control charts and acceptance sampling. Introducing the proper discussions of the design of significance level according to the use of hypothesis test, then it presents two methods to interpret significance by Neyman-Pearson and Fisher. Second point of the study proposes the design of confidence level for interval estimation by Bayesian confidence set, frequentist confidential set and fiducial interval. Third, the content also indicates the design of type I error and type II error considering both productivity and customer claim for control chart. Finally, the study reflects the design of producer's risk with operating charistictics curve, screening and switch rules for the purpose of purchasing and subcontraction.

접촉상태에 있는 의 초정밀 역전방지클러치의 3D SPRAG TYPE 내구성 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study on Endurance Estimation of 3D Sprag Type Ultra Precision Reverse-Locking Clutches under Contact Condition)

  • 이상범;서정세;이석순;이태선;최중환
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1429-1433
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    • 2004
  • Recently, a dangerous event occurred at the field industry and mechanical system. At developed by SUNGGOK corp. a R-L clutches of a small and high capacity serves safety device from a variety environment of mechanical system, it permits transmission of driving torque form input to output shaft in both directions of rotation, but restrains any feedback torque of the driven load from rotating the output shaft in either direction. This study was carried out to demonstrate through finite element methode and durability estimation for safety of the R-L clutches without sliding during the engagement process. As results, we organized about endurance test methode when applied rated torque.

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최근 기상 자료에 의한 부산의 세분화된 지역별 재현기대 풍속 산정 (Estimation of Wind Speeds for Return Period in Cellularized District of Basan by the Recent Meteorological Data)

  • 안재혁
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.158-163
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    • 2012
  • This study is concerned with the estimation of wind speeds for return period in cellularized district of Busan by the recent meteorological data. Recently standard of the wind load in Busan area is determined by using meteorological wind speed data which is observed on Automated Synoptic Observing System(ASOS) only. Applying the existing basic wind speed that is 40m/s to the construction design of Busan area is inefficient. Because the wind speeds of Busan area show different amounts depend on the location of cellularized district. This research analyze the observed data of wind speeds of cellularized district in Busan based on Automate Weather System(AWA). In addition that we compute regional wind speeds for return period by using Gumbel distribution and study and compare with the existing basic wind speeds after evaluating appropriateness by Hazen's plot method.

횡풍하의 차량 외란 추정을 이용한 차선 유지 조향 보조 제어기 설계 (Design of Lane Keeping Steering Assist Controller Using Vehicle Lateral Disturbance Estimation under Cross Wind)

  • 임형호;좌은혁;이경수
    • 자동차안전학회지
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents steering controller for unintended lane departure avoidance under crosswind using vehicle lateral disturbance estimation. Vehicles exposed to crosswind are more likely to deviate from lane, which can lead to accidents. To prevent this, a lateral disturbance estimator and steering controller for compensating disturbance have been proposed. The disturbance affecting lateral motion of the vehicle is estimated using Kalman filter, which is on the basis of the 2-DOF bicycle model and Electric Power Steering (EPS) module. A sliding mode controller is designed to avoid unintended the lane departure using the estimated disturbance. The controller is based on the 2-DOF bicycle model and the vision-based error dynamic model. A torque controller is used to provide appropriate assist torque to driver. The performance of proposed estimator and controller is evaluated via computer simulation using Matlab/Simulink.

수질오염총량관리 계획수립의 개선방안에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Improvement Scheme of the Total Water Pollution Load Management Plan)

  • 김영일;이상진
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.977-981
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    • 2006
  • In order to improve water quality in drinking water sources, Ministry of Environment (MOE) was implemented total water pollution load management (TWPLM) in all the major river basins. From the experience of the application of TWPLM, we could find some problems relating the target watershed, standard operating procedure (SOP) of establishment and implementation plan, water quality and flow rate, design flow, water quality model, margin of safety (MOS), and estimation of wasteload were found. The authors were reviewed ongoing TWPLM and presented the improvement schemes for a successful TWPLM. For the application of these suggestions, further detailed studies should be done to implement TWPLM in the future.