• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.313-320
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• 2018

As ships operating on the Arctic route are exposed to various ice environments such as level ice, pre-swan, pack ice, ice ridge and brash ice, it is essential to estimate the ice resistance according to the ice environment. Methods for estimating the ice resistance include a method using mathematical model, numerical simulation, and a method using empirical formula. In this study, empirical formulas are used to estimate the ice resistance. The purpose of this study is to develop the ice resistance and attainable speed estimation program(I-RES) for brash ice. To develop the Brash ice attainable speed estimation algorithm, the environmental characteristics of the brash ice were analyzed, and the results of I-RES were evaluated by comparing the model test results of brash ice. The accuracy of I-RES for brash ice is around 20% in this study but it will be more developed near future with accumulating more model test results and calculation results.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.21 no.1 s.74
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• pp.1-6
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• 2007

While a typhoon is traveling, characteristics of its wind fields are continuously changing, producing severe changes in local water level and wave conditions, especially, when a typhoon comes into shallow water. However, there have not been many studies related to local typhoon effects, especially, considering real time changes of wind direction related to the coastal topography. In the study, the characteristics of the wind field by typhoon and topographical characteristics in shallow water are considered, as well as conditions of wave climate estimation. These are performed by the SWAN (Simulating waves nearshore) model, in order to estimate the growth of wave energy due to the wind field. It can be strongly suggested that the wave energy of theof an inner bay should be estimated when the direction of the bay entrance and the wind direction of the typhoon are identical. The result of the numerical calculations is in better agreement with the observed data than the result of the conventional estimation techniques.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.211-232
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• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.179-188
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• 2012

Performance analyses of vertical breakwaters were conducted for fictitiously designed breakwaters for various water depths to analyze the influence of climate change on the structures. The performance-based design method considering sea level rise and wave height increase due to climate change was used for the performance analysis. One of the problems of the performance-based design method is the large calculation time of wave transformation. To overcome this problem, the SWAN model combined with artificial neural network was used. The significant wave height and principal wave direction at the breakwater site are quickly calculated by using a trained neural network with inputs of deepwater significant wave height and principal wave direction, and tidal level. In general, structural stability becomes low due to climate change impacts, but the trend of stability is different depending on water depth. Outside surf zone, the influence of wave height increase becomes more significant, while that of sea level rise becomes negligible, as water depth increases. Inside surf zone, the influence of both wave height increase and sea level rise diminishes as water depth decreases, but the influence of wave height increase is greater than that of sea level rise. Reinforcement and maintenance policies for vertical breakwaters should be established with consideration of these results.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.599-607
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to reproduce long-term wave fields in coastal waters of Korea based on wave hind-casting modelling and discuss its applications. To validate wind data(NCEP, ECMWF, JMA-MSM), comparison of wind data was done with wave buoy data. JMA-MSM predicted wind data with high accuracy. But due to relatively longer period of ECMWF wind data as compared to that of JMA-MSM, wind data set of ECMWF(2001~2014) was used to perform wave hind-casting modelling. Results from numerical modelling were verified with the observed data of wave buoys installed by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) and Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency(KHOA) on offshore waters. The results agree well with observations at buoy stations, especially during the event periods such as a typhoon. Consequently, the wave data reproduced by wave hind-casting modelling was used to obtain missing data in wave observation buoys. The obtained missing data indicated underestimation of maximum wave height during the event period at some points of buoys. Reasons for such underestimation may be due to larger time interval and resolution of the input wind data, water depth and grid size etc. The methodology used in present study can be used to analyze coastal erosion data in conjunction with a wave characteristic of the event period in coastal areas. Additionally, the method can be used in the coastal disaster vulnerability assessment to generate wave points of interest.