• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.431-438
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• 2023

The information about battlefield environment changes and operational impacts on Korean Peninsula due to climate change is essential for national defense. In this study, the future impact of four ground operations was analyzed by using the national climate change standard scenario based on the IPCC 6^th report. As a result, it was analyzed that the number of operational-limited days for ambush and airlift operations would decrease, making the operational environment favorable. However, the operational environment unfavorable as the number of operational-limited days for crossing and reconnaissance operations increase, but the number is not large so much.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.6
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• pp.419-429
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• 2023

The objective of this study was to determine the management water level of an estuary reservoir considering three aspects: the water use, flood control and water quality, and to use a robust decision-making to consider uncertainty due to climate change. The watershed-reservoir linkage model was used to simulate changes in inflow due to climate change, and changes in reservoir water level and water quality. Five management level alternatives ranging from -1.7 El.m to 0.2 El.m were evaluated under the SSP1, 2, 3, and 5 scenariosof the ACCESS-CM2 Global Climate Model. Performance indicators based on period-reliability were calculated for robust decision-making considering the three aspects, and regret was used as a decision indicator to identify the alternatives with the minimum maximum regret. Flood control failure increased as the management level increased, while the probability of water use failure increased as the management level decreased. The highest number of failures occurred under the SSP5 scenario. In the water quality sector, the change in water quality was relatively small with an increase in the management level due to the increase in reservoir volume. Conversely, a decrease in the management level resulted in a more significant change in water quality. In the study area, the estuary reservoir was found to be problematic when the change in water quality was small, resulting in more failures.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2024

Persistent droughts due to climate change will intensify water shortage problems in Korea. According to the 1st National Water Management Plan, the shortage of domestic and industrial waters is projected to be 0.07 billion m³/year under a 50-year drought event. A long-term prediction of water demand is essential for effectively responding to water shortage problems. Unlike industrial water, which has a relatively constant monthly usage, domestic water is analyzed on monthly basis due to apparent monthly usage patterns. We analyzed monthly water usage patterns using water usage data from 2017 to 2021 in Chungcheong, South Korea. The monthly water usage rate was calculated by dividing monthly water usage by annual water usage. We also calculated the water distribution rate considering correlations between water usage rate and climate variables. The division method that divided the monthly water usage rate by monthly average temperature resulted in the smallest absolute error. Using the division method with average temperature, we calculated the water distribution rates for the Chungcheong region. Then we predicted future water usage rates in the Chungcheong region by multiplying the average temperature of the SSP5-8.5 scenario and the water distribution rate. As a result, the average of the maximum water usage rate increased from 1.16 to 1.29 and the average of the minimum water usage rate decreased from 0.86 to 0.84, and the first quartile decreased from 0.95 to 0.93 and the third quartile increased from 1.04 to 1.06. Therefore, it is expected that the variability in monthly water usage rates will increase in the future.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.107-117
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• 2024

The objective of this study is to estimate riverbed fluctuations and the volume of aggregate extraction attributable to climate change. Rainfall-runoff modeling, utilizing the SWAT model based on climate change scenarios, as well as long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling, employing the HEC-RAS model, were conducted for the Nonsan River basin. The analysis of rainfall-runoff and sediment transport under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for the early part of the future indicates that differences in annual precipitation may exceed 600 mm, resulting in a corresponding variation in the basin's sediment discharge by more than 30,000 tons per year. Additionally, long-term riverbed fluctuation modeling of the lower reaches of the Nonsan Stream has identified a potential aggregate extraction area. It is estimated that aggregate extraction could be feasible within a 2.455 km stretch upstream, approximately 4.6 to 6.9 km from the confluence with the Geum River. These findings suggest that the risk of climate crises, such as extreme rainfall or droughts, could increase due to abnormal weather conditions, and the increase in variability could affect long-term aggregate extraction. Therefore, it is considered important to take into account the impact of climate change in future long-term aggregate extraction planning and policy formulation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.243-243
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• 2021

담수호는 방조제 건설 및 담수화를 통해 다양한 용수공급을 위해 개발된 수자원으로서 담수화된 수자원은 농업용수로 활용이 가능하다. 특히 간월호의 경우, 담수호 주변이 주로 농경지로 이루어져 있으며, 담수화된 수자원은 농업용수를 공급하기 위해 활용되고 있다. 따라서 간월호의 수자원 관리를 위한 장기적인 계획 수립을 위해서는 간월호의 주요 용수공급 대상이 되는 농경지 물수요량의 미래 변화에 대한 평가가 우선되어야 한다. 최근 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)에서는 기존 대표농도경로에 사회·경제 조건을 추가하여 공동 사회-경제 경로 (SSP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)라는 개념을 새롭게 제안하였으며, 이를 기반으로 6차 평가보고서 (6th Assessment Report, AR6)를 발간한 바 있다. 본 연구에서는 CMIP6 기후변화 자료를 기반으로 한 기후변화 자료를 통해 담수호 유역의 농업용수 수요량 변화를 평가하였으며, Makov chain 모형을 이용한 토지이용변화 자료를 검토하여 기후변화 뿐만 아니라 토지이용변화를 함께 고려한 미래 농업용수 수요량 변화 평가를 수행하였다. 이를 통해 CMIP6 시나리오별 미래 농업용수 수요량 변화를 검토하고, 현재 간월호의 용수공급 능력과 비교를 통해 간월호의 수자원 관리 능력을 평가하는 것이 본 연구의 목적이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.305-305
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• 2022

A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.298-306
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• 2016

Planting date shift is one of the means of adapting to climate change in Kimchi Cabbage growers in major production areas in Korea. This study suggests a method to estimate the potential yield of Kimchi Cabbage based on daily temperature accumulation during the growth period from planting to maturity which is determined by a plant phenology model tuned to Kimchi Cabbage. The phenology model converts any changes in the thermal condition caused by the planting date shift into the heat unit accumulation during the growth period, which can be calculated from daily temperatures. The physiological maturity is estimated by applying this model to a variable development rate function depending either on growth or heading stage. The cabbage yield prediction model (Ahn et al., 2014) calculates the potential yield of summer cabbage by accumulating daily heat units for the growth period. We combined these two models and applied to the 1km resolution climate scenario (2000-2100) based on RCP8.5 for South Korea. Potential yields in the current normal year (2001-2010) and the future normal year (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were estimated for each grid cell with the planting dates of July 1, August 1, September 1, and October 1. Based on the results, we divided the whole South Korea into 810 watersheds, and devised a three - dimensional evaluation chart of the time - space - yield that enables the user to easily find the optimal planting date for a given watershed. This method is expected to be useful not only for exploring future new cultivation sites but also for developing cropping systems capable of adaptation to climate change without changing varieties in existing production areas.