• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.445-455
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• 2023

Sea level rise due to global warming is accelerating. According to the IPCC survey, the expected sea level rise in 2100 was analyzed to be 47cm in the low-carbon scenario (SSP 1-2.6) and 82cm in the high-carbon scenario (SSP 5-8.5). Sea level rise can cause serious damage to port infrastructure and reduce the safety of ships docked inside ports. In this study, Mokpo Port, which frequently suffers from flooding during high tide, was selected and the sensitivity of mooring evaluation factors was analyzed for actual berthing ships according to sea level rise scenarios. From the analysis, we found that the tension of mooring line, the load of bollard, vertical angle of mooring line, and ship's motion of 6-DOF, which are evaluation factors, generally increased when the sea level increased. The most sensitive evaluation factor was sway motion of 6-DOF. Also, we analyzed that the value of mooring evaluation factors decreased when the crown height was raised. This was beneficial in improving ship and pier safety. The results of this study can be used as basic data to secure measures to improve port and ship safety according to sea level rise in Mokpo Port.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.19-31
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• 2023

According to the climate change scenarios, the intensity of typhoons, a major factor in Korea's natural disaster, is expected to increase. The increase in typhoon intensity leads to a rise in wave heights, which is likely to cause large-scale disasters in coastal regions with high populations and building density for dwelling, industry, and tourism. This study, therefore, analyzed observation data of the Donghae ocean data buoy and conducted a numerical model simulation for wave estimations for the typhoon MAYSAK (202009) period, which showed the maximum significant wave height. The boundary conditions for wave simulations were a JMA-MSM wind field and a wind field applying the typhoon central pressure reduction rate in the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. As a result of the wave simulations, the wave height in front of the breakwater at Sokcho port was increased by 15.27% from 4.06 m to 4.68 m in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Furthermore, the return period at the location of 147-2 grid point of deep-sea design wave was calculated to increase at least twice, it is necessary to improve the deep-sea design wave of return period of 50-year, which is prescriptively applied when designing coastal structures.

• Journal of Species Research
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.109-113
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• 2023

To build a distribution model for Haemadipsa rjukjuana, we collected current occurrences of the species on Heuksando with adjacent islands. Based on current locations and 19 climate variables with DEM (digital elevation model), we built the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) species distribution model for H. rjukjuana in the islands. Then, we applied the MaxEnt model to the mainland of Korea with the current climate condition and topology. In addition to the current distribution scenario, we predicted the future distribution scenarios in Korea by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models. Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 585 of two CMIP6 models(GISS-E2-1 and INM-CM4-8) from 2040 to 2100 were used for the future projection.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.177-185
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• 2024

We developed a regional ocean climate model using dynamic downscaling in the Northwest Pacific Ocean to build a climate model for the Korean Peninsula. The past marine environment was reproduced through historical simulations, and the future marine environment in 2100 was predicted according to the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) climate change scenario. The future sea surface temperature of the Korean seas is predicted to rise about 1-4℃, and the increase in water temperature in the East Sea is expected to be the largest. The National Institute of Fisheries Science has monitored abnormal seawater temperatures such as high and low seawater temperatures in coastal and inland waters, and predicted that the number of high seawater temperature days in the East, West, South Sea, and the coast of Jeju Island will increase in the future. In addition, the occurrence of Ciguatera fish poison plankton around Jeju Island was projected to increase. This study is expected to provide accurate forecasting information for fishery issues. The aim of this study was to analyze future ocean environment changes around the Korean Peninsula using climate change SSP scenarios and predict fisheries issues through future projections of the regional ocean climate model.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.159-170
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• 2022

As the severity of water-related disasters increases in urban watersheds due to climate change, reducing flood damage in urban watersheds is one of the important issues. This study focuses on prioritizing the optimal site for permeable pavement to maximize the efficiency of reducing flood damage in urban watersheds in the future climate environment using multi-criteria decision making techniques. The Mokgamcheon watershed which is considerably urbanized than in the past was selected for the study area and its 27 sub-watersheds were considered as candidate sites. Six General Circulation Model (GCM) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6) according to two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were used to estimate future monthly precipitation for the study area. The Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was used to select the water quantity evaluation criteria for prioritizing permeable pavement, and the study area was modeled using ArcGIS and Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). For the values corresponding to the evaluation criteria based on the DPSIR framework, data from national statistics and long-term runoff simulation value of SWMM according to future monthly precipitation were used. Finally, the priority for permeable pavement was determined using the Fuzzy TOPSIS and Minimax regret method. The high priorities were concentrated in the downstream sub-watersheds where urbanization was more progressed and densely populated than the upstream watersheds.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.802-811
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• 2023

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.314-314
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• 2023

Extreme climate events can have a large impact on human life by hampering social, environmental, and economic development. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the widely used numerical models to understand the anticipated future climate change. However, different GCMs can project different future climates due to structural differences, varying initial boundary conditions and assumptions about the physical phenomena. The multi-model ensemble (MME) approach can improve the uncertainties associated with the different GCM outcomes. In this study, a comprehensive rating metric was used to select the best-performing GCMs out of 11 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 GCMs, according to their skills in terms of four temporal and five spatial performance indices, in replicating the 21 extreme climate indices during the baseline (1975-2017) in South Korea. The MME data were derived by averaging the simulations from all selected GCMs and three top-ranked GCMs. The random forest (RF) algorithm was also used to derive the MME data from the three top-ranked GCMs. The RF-derived MME data of the three top-ranked GCMs showed the highest performance in simulating the baseline extreme climate which was subsequently used to project the future extreme climate indices under both the representative concentration pathway (RCP) and the socioeconomic concentration pathway scenarios (SSP). The extreme cold and warming indices had declining and increasing trends, respectively, and most extreme precipitation indices had increasing trends over the period 2031-2100. Compared to all scenarios, RCP8.5 showed drastic changes in future extreme climate indices. The coasts in the east, south and west had stronger warming than the rest of the country, while mountain areas in the north experienced more extreme cold. While extreme cold climatology gradually declined from north to south, extreme warming climatology continuously grew from coastal to inland and northern mountainous regions. The results showed that the socially, environmentally and agriculturally important regions of South Korea were at increased risk of facing the detrimental impacts of extreme climatology.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.93-104
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• 2022

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sector to droughts, and drought damage on the agriculture sector could have effects on other sector. Droughts have different characteristics compared to other extreme events, which means more sophisticated methods considering the characteristics of droughts are required when measuring their damage. The purpose of this study is to analyze the damage of droughts based on limited computational general equilibrium model. To be specific, we constructed a CGE model focusing on the agriculture sector in Korea. Also, to limit changes in land use and labor, we limited them, and assume droughts only have effects on productivity of value-added. Lastly, we simulate drought effects on rice production in Korea based on several climate scenarios and GCM to identify the economic effects of droughts. The results show that 1) the cumulated damage of droughts during 2021~2040 is higher than other periods (2040~2061, 2081~2100), 2) the correlation between the damage of droughts and SSP scenarios is insignificant. This result implies the necessity of the effective drought risk management to prevent future droughts effects, irrespective of mitigation policies. 3) Due to increases in rice price, GDP of rice sector is increased. However, GDP of the other sector and consumer welfare are decreased. This result show that indirect effects of droughts would be more important when measuring drought effects on agriculture sector.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.21-31
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• 2024

Macromia daimoji Okumura, 1949 was designated as an endangered species and also categorized as Class II Endangered wildlife on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List in Korea. The spatial distribution of this species ranged within a region delimited by northern latitude from Sacheon-si(35.1°) to Yeoncheon-gun(38.0°) and eastern longitude from Yeoncheon-gun(126.8°) to Yangsan-si(128.9°). They generally prefer microhabitats such as slowly flowing littoral zones of streams, alluvial stream islands and temporarily formed puddles in the sand-based lowland streams. The objectives of this study were to analyze the similarity of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in M. daimoji habitats, to predict the current potential distribution patterns as well as the changes of distribution ranges under global climate change circumstances. Data was collected both from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and by field surveys from April 2009 to September 2022. We adopted MaxEnt model to predict the current and future potential distribution for M. daimoji using downloaded 19 variables from the WorldClim database. The differences of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in the mainstream of Nakdonggang were smaller than those in its tributaries and the other streams, based on the surrounding environments and stream sizes. MaxEnt model presented that potential distribution displayed high inhabiting probability in Nakdonggang and its tributaries. Applying to the future scenarios by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), SSP1 scenario was predicted to expand in a wide area and SSP5 scenario in a narrow area, comparing with current potential distribution. M. daimoji is not only directly threatened by physical disturbances (e.g. river development activities) but also vulnerable to rapidly changing climate circumstances. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the habitat environments and establish conservation strategies for preserving population of M. daimoji.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2024

Persistent droughts due to climate change will intensify water shortage problems in Korea. According to the 1st National Water Management Plan, the shortage of domestic and industrial waters is projected to be 0.07 billion m³/year under a 50-year drought event. A long-term prediction of water demand is essential for effectively responding to water shortage problems. Unlike industrial water, which has a relatively constant monthly usage, domestic water is analyzed on monthly basis due to apparent monthly usage patterns. We analyzed monthly water usage patterns using water usage data from 2017 to 2021 in Chungcheong, South Korea. The monthly water usage rate was calculated by dividing monthly water usage by annual water usage. We also calculated the water distribution rate considering correlations between water usage rate and climate variables. The division method that divided the monthly water usage rate by monthly average temperature resulted in the smallest absolute error. Using the division method with average temperature, we calculated the water distribution rates for the Chungcheong region. Then we predicted future water usage rates in the Chungcheong region by multiplying the average temperature of the SSP5-8.5 scenario and the water distribution rate. As a result, the average of the maximum water usage rate increased from 1.16 to 1.29 and the average of the minimum water usage rate decreased from 0.86 to 0.84, and the first quartile decreased from 0.95 to 0.93 and the third quartile increased from 1.04 to 1.06. Therefore, it is expected that the variability in monthly water usage rates will increase in the future.