• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.130.2-130.2
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• 2012

태양의 활동영역에서 관측할 수 있는 흑점은 주로 흑점군으로 관측되며, 태양폭발현상의 발생을 예보하기 위한 중요한 관측 대상 중 하나이다. 현재 태양 폭발을 예보하는 모델들은 McIntosh 흑점군 분류법을 사용하며 통계적 모델과 기계학습 모델로 나누어진다. 컴퓨터는 흑점군의 형태학적 특성을 연속적인 값으로 계산하지만 흑점군의 형태적 다양성으로 인해 McIntosh 분류를 잘못 분류할 수도 있다. 이러한 이유로 컴퓨터가 계산한 흑점군의 형태학적인 특성을 예보에 직접 적용하는 것이 필요하다. 우리는 흑점군의 형태학적인 특성(개수, 면적, 면적비 등)과 함께 모든 흑점을 정점(Vertex)으로 하고 그 사이를 연결하는 간선(Edge)으로 하는 간선의 거리 합이 최소인 최소신장트리(Minimum spanning tree : MST)를 작성하였다. 이 최소신장트리를 사용하여 흑점군을 검출하고 가장 면적이 큰 정점을 중심으로 트리의 깊이(Depth)와 차수(Degree)를 계산하였다. 이 방법을 2003년 SOHO/MDI의 태양 가시광 영상에 적용하여 구한 흑점군의 내부 흑점수와 면적은 NOAA에서 산출한 값들과 90%, 99%의 좋은 상관관계를 가졌다. 우리는 이 연구를 통해 흑점군의 형태학적인 특성과 더불어 예보에 직접적으로 활용할 수 있는 방법을 논의하고자 한다.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.9-15
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• 2009

A necessary condition for the formation of a filament is magnetic helicity. In the present paper we seek the origin of magnetic helicity of intermediate filaments. We observed the formation of a sinistral filament at the boundary of a decaying active region using full-disk $H_{\alpha}$ images obtained from Bi Bear Solar Observatory. We have measured the rate of helicity injection during the formation of the filament using full-disk 96 minute-cadence magnetograms taken by SOHO MDI. As a result we found that 1) no significant helicity was injected around the region (polarity inversion line; PIL) of filament formation and 2) negative helicity was injected in the decaying active region. The negative sign of the injected helicity was opposite to that of the filament helicity. On the other hand, at earlier times when the associated active region emerged and grew, positive helicity was intensively injected. Our results suggest that the magnetic helicity of the intermediate filament may have originated from the helicity accumulated during the period of the growth of its associated active region.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.181-186
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• 2008

Recently, Choe & Cheng (2002) have demonstrated that multiple magnetic flux systems with closed configurations can have more magnetic energy than the corresponding open magnetic fields. In relation to this issue, we have addressed two questions: (1) how much fraction of eruptive solar active regions shows multiple flux system features, and (2) what winding angle could be an eruption threshold. For this investigation, we have taken a sample of 105 front-side halo CMEs, which occurred from 1996 to 2001, and whose source regions were located near the disk center, for which magnetic polarities in SOHO/MDI magnetograms are clearly discernible. Examining their soft X-ray images taken by Yohkoh SXT in pre-eruption stages, we have classified these events into two groups: multiple flux system events and single flux system events. It is found that 74% (78/105) of the sample events show multiple flux system features. Comparing the field configuration of an active region with a numerical model, we have also found that the winding angle of the eruptive flux system is slightly above $1.5{\pi}$.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.29.1-29.1
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• 2010

We report three types of evolutions of EUV bright points (EBPs) which are characterized by their height variations. We analyzed three EBPs during their lifetimes observed by STEREO/SECCHI/EUVI and we obtained heights, sizes, and intensities. Moreover, we investigated their underlying magnetic bipoles observed by SOHO/MDI and we measured distances and fluxes of the two opposite fragments. We found three distinct changes in the heights of the EBPs: upward, downward, and flat. In the upward case, the EBP showed a small and dark structure first, and then changed to a large and bright loop. In the downward case, the EBP first appeared as a large and dark loop structure, and then evolved to a compact and bright loop system. Finally, in the flat case, the height and the size of the EBP didn't change significantly. We found that those EBPs were associated with three distinct contact types of their underlying magnetic fragments, emerging, cancelling, and shearing, respectively. In all cases, both flux emergences and flux cancellations were observed during the lifetimes of the BPs. The flux emergence was dominant in the initial phase and the flux cancellation was significant when the intensity reached its maximum. In addition, we found a remarkable correlation between the heights of the EBPs and the distance of the opposite magnetic fragments.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.36.2-36.2
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• 2011

A cancelling magnetic feature (CMF) is believed to be a result of magnetic reconnection in the low atmosphere of the Sun. In this work, we investigate the physical properties of CMFs, focusing on the rates of flux cancellation in CMFs and the dynamics of chromospheric phenomena coupled with CMFs. First, we have determined the specific rates of flux cancellation using the magnetograms taken by the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) aboard the Hinode satellite. The specific rates determined with the SOT turned out to be systematically higher than those based on the data taken by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) aborad the SOHO. Second, we analyzed transient Ca II brightenings associated with small-scale CMFs using the SOT/Hinode. We found that in most Ca II brightenings related to CMFs, and the Ca II intensity peaks after magnetic flux cancellation proceeds. Moreover, brightenings tend to appear as pairs of bright points of similar size and similar brightness overlying magnetic bipoles. To further study the brightening and dynamics of chromospherie features associated with CMFs, we have analyzed Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) data. From this data the Doppler motion of chromospheric features above a CMF changed from redshift to blueshift. The duration of such dynamics is very short being less than 2 minutes. These results are unexpected one and can not be explained by any pre-existing pictures of CMFs.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.137.1-137.1
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• 2012

If all Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have flux ropes, then the CMEs should keep their helicity signs from the Sun to the Earth according to the helicity conservation principle. We select 34 CME-ICME pairs whose source active regions (ARs) have continuous SOHO/MDI magnetogram data covering more than 24 hr without data gap during the passage of the ARs near the solar disk centre. The helicity signs in the ARs are determined by estimation of accumulating amounts of helicity injections through the photospheric surfaces in the entire source ARs. The helicity signs in the ICMEs are estimated by applying the cylinder model developed by Marubashi (2000) to 16 second resolution magnetic field data from the MAG instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft. It is found that 30 out of 34 events (88%) are helicity sign-consistent events, while 4 events (12%) are sign-inconsistent. Through a detailed investigation of the AR solar origins of the 4 exceptional events, we find that those exceptional events can be explained by the local AR helicity sign opposite to that of the entire AR helicity (2000 July 28 ICME), incorrectly reported solar source in CDAW (2005 May 20 ICME), or the helicity sign of the pre-existing coronal magnetic field (2000 October 13 and 2003 November 20 ICMEs). We conclude that the helicity signs of the ICMEs are quite consistent with those of the injected helicities in the AR regions where CMEs were erupted.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.98-98
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• 2013

태양의 활동영역에서 관측할 수 있는 흑점은 주로 흑점군으로 관측되며, 태양폭발현상의 발생을 예보하기 위한 중요한 관측 대상 중 하나이다. 현재 태양 폭발을 예보하는 모델들은 McIntosh 흑점군 분류법을 사용하며 통계적 모델과 기계학습 모델로 나누어진다. 컴퓨터는 흑점군의 형태학적 특성을 연속적인 값으로 계산하지만 흑점군의 형태적 다양성으로 인해 McIntosh 분류법과 일치하지 않는 경우가 있다. 이러한 이유로 컴퓨터가 계산한 흑점군의 형태학적인 특성을 예보에 직접 적용하는 것이 필요하다. 우리는 흑점군을 검출하기 위해 최소신장트리(Minimum spanning tree : MST)를 이용한 계층적 군집화 기법을 수행하였다. 그래프(Graph)이론에서 최소신장트리는 정점(Vertex)과 간선(Edge)으로 구성된 간선의 가중치의 합이 최소인 트리이다. 우리는 모든 흑점을 정점, 그들의 연결을 간선으로 적용하여 최소신장트리를 작성하였다. 또한 최소신장트리를 활용한 계층적 군집화기법은 초기값에 따른 군집화 결과의 차이가 없기 때문에 흑점군 검출에 있어서 가장 적합한 알고리즘이다. 이를 통해 흑점군의 기본적인 형태학적인 특성(개수, 면적, 면적비 등)을 계산하고 최소신장트리를 통해 가장 면적이 큰 흑점을 중심으로 트리의 깊이(Depth)와 차수(Degree)를 계산하였다. 이 방법을 2003년 SOHO/MDI의 태양 가시광 영상에 적용하여 구한 흑점군의 내부 흑점수와 면적은 NOAA에서 산출한 값들과 각각 90%, 99%의 좋은 상관관계를 가졌다. 우리는 이 연구를 통해 흑점군의 형태학적인 특성과 더불어 예보에 직접적으로 활용할 수 있는 방법을 논의하고자 한다.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.61.1-61.1
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• 2017

As the application of deep-learning methods has been succeeded in various fields, they have a high potential to be applied to space weather forecasting. Convolutional neural network, one of deep learning methods, is specialized in image recognition. In this study, we apply the AlexNet architecture, which is a winner of Imagenet Large Scale Virtual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC) 2012, to the forecast of daily solar flare occurrence using the MatConvNet software of MATLAB. Our input images are SOHO/MDI, EIT $195{\AA}$, and $304{\AA}$ from January 1996 to December 2010, and output ones are yes or no of flare occurrence. We consider other input images which consist of last two images and their difference image. We select training dataset from Jan 1996 to Dec 2000 and from Jan 2003 to Dec 2008. Testing dataset is chosen from Jan 2001 to Dec 2002 and from Jan 2009 to Dec 2010 in order to consider the solar cycle effect. In training dataset, we randomly select one fifth of training data for validation dataset to avoid the over-fitting problem. Our model successfully forecasts the flare occurrence with about 0.90 probability of detection (POD) for common flares (C-, M-, and X-class). While POD of major flares (M- and X-class) forecasting is 0.96, false alarm rate (FAR) also scores relatively high(0.60). We also present several statistical parameters such as critical success index (CSI) and true skill statistics (TSS). All statistical parameters do not strongly depend on the number of input data sets. Our model can immediately be applied to automatic forecasting service when image data are available.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.34.1-34.1
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• 2010

Solar proton events, whose fluxes are larger than 10 particles cm-2 sec-1 ster-1 for >10 MeV protons, have been observed since 1976. NOAA proton event list from 1997 to 2006 shows that most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. In this study, we carefully identified the sources of these events. For this, we used LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. First, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the CMEs are found to eject from the western hemisphere. Second, we searched a major active region in the front solar disk for several days before the proton events occurred by taking into account two facts: (1) The location of the active region is consistent with the position angle of a given CME and (2) there were several flares in the active region or the active region is the largest among several candidates. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce proton events without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of proton events by considering solar rotation rate, $13.2^{\circ}$ per day. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.38.2-38.2
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• 2010

We have examined the occurrence probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending three flare parameters (X-ray peak flux, longitude, and impulsive time). For this we used NOAA SPEs from 1976 to 2006, and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we selected 166 proton events that were associated with major flares; 85 events associated with X-class flares and 81 events associated with M-class flares. Especially the occurrence probability strongly depends on these three parameters. In addition, the relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. Among NOAA SPEs from 1997 to 2006, most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. We carefully identified the sources of these events using LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. Specifically, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the history of active regions. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce SPEs without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of SPEs by considering solar rotation rate. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side. Now we are examining the occurrence probability of SPEs depending on CME parameters. Finally, we will discuss the future prospects on the development of an empirical SPE forecast model based on the information of flares and CMEs.