• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.47 no.4
• /
• pp.182-190
• /
• 2023

This study proposes a predictive model using XGBoost and SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) to estimate fuel consumption in bulk carriers. Previous studies have also utilized ship engine data and weather data. However, they lacked reliability in predicted results and explanations of variables used in the fuel consumption prediction model implementation. To address these limitations, this study developed a predictive model using XGBoost and SHAP. It provides research background, scope, relevant regulations, previous studies, and research methodology. Additionally, it explains the data cleaning method for bulk carriers and verifies results of the predictive model.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
• /
• v.18 no.6
• /
• pp.1331-1336
• /
• 2023

In text-based fish disease classification using machine learning, there is a problem that the input parameters of the machine learning model are too many, but due to performance problems, the input parameters cannot be arbitrarily reduced. This paper proposes a method of optimizing input parameters specialized for Paralichthys olivaceus disease classification using SHAP analysis techniques to solve this problem,. The proposed method includes data preprocessing of disease information extracted from the halibut disease questionnaire by applying the SHAP analysis technique and evaluating a machine learning model using AutoML. Through this, the performance of the input parameters of AutoML is evaluated and the optimal input parameter combination is derived. In this study, the proposed method is expected to be able to maintain the existing performance while reducing the number of input parameters required, which will contribute to enhancing the efficiency and practicality of text-based Paralichthys olivaceus disease classification.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
• /
• 2024.01a
• /
• pp.39-40
• /
• 2024

본 연구는 SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)을 활용하여 신용카드 사용자의 연체 가능성을 예측하는 기계학습 모델의 해석 가능성을 강화하는 방법을 제안한다. 대규모 신용카드 데이터를 분석하여, 고객의 나이, 성별, 결혼 상태, 결제 이력 등이 연체 발생에 미치는 영향을 명확히 하는 것을 목표로 한다. 본 연구를 토대로 금융기관은 더 정확한 위험 관리를 수행하고, 고객에게 맞춤형 서비스를 제공할 수 있는 기반을 마련할 수 있다.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
• /
• v.24 no.2
• /
• pp.177-184
• /
• 2024

In the situation of increasing data at fast speed, we use all kinds of complex ensemble and deep learning algorithms to get the highest accuracy. It's sometimes questionable how these models predict, classify, recognize, and track unknown data. Accomplishing this technique and more has been and would be the goal of intensive research and development in the data science community. A variety of reasons, such as lack of data, imbalanced data, biased data can impact the decision rendered by the learning models. Many models are gaining traction for such interpretations. Now, LIME and SHAP are commonly used, in which are two state of the art open source explainable techniques. However, their outputs represent some different results. In this context, this study introduces a coupling technique of LIME and Shap, and demonstrates analysis possibilities on the decisions made by LightGBM and Keras models in classifying a transaction for fraudulence on the IEEE CIS dataset.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.29 no.4
• /
• pp.325-345
• /
• 2023

In the rapidly evolving domain of e-commerce, our study presents a cohesive approach to enhance customer satisfaction prediction from online reviews, aligning methodological innovation with practical insights. We integrate the RFE-SHAP feature selection with LDA topic modeling to streamline predictive analytics in e-commerce. This integration facilitates the identification of key features-specifically, narrowing down from an initial set of 28 to an optimal subset of 14 features for the Random Forest algorithm. Our approach strategically mitigates the common issue of overfitting in models with an excess of features, leading to an improved accuracy rate of 84% in our Random Forest model. Central to our analysis is the understanding that certain aspects in review content, such as quality, fit, and durability, play a pivotal role in influencing customer satisfaction, especially in the clothing sector. We delve into explaining how each of these selected features impacts customer satisfaction, providing a comprehensive view of the elements most appreciated by customers. Our research makes significant contributions in two key areas. First, it enhances predictive modeling within the realm of e-commerce analytics by introducing a streamlined, feature-centric approach. This refinement in methodology not only bolsters the accuracy of customer satisfaction predictions but also sets a new standard for handling feature selection in predictive models. Second, the study provides actionable insights for e-commerce platforms, especially those in the clothing sector. By highlighting which aspects of customer reviews-like quality, fit, and durability-most influence satisfaction, we offer a strategic direction for businesses to tailor their products and services.

• Annual Conference on Human and Language Technology
• /
• 2020.10a
• /
• pp.563-568
• /
• 2020

본 연구에서는 블랙박스로 알려진 딥러닝 모델에 설명 근거를 제공할 수 있는 설명자 모델을 적용해 보았다. 영화평 감성 분석을 위해 MLP, CNN으로 구성된 딥러닝 모델과 결정트리의 앙상블인 Gradient Boosting 모델을 이용하여 감성 분류기를 구축하였다. 설명자 모델로는 기울기(gradient)을 기반으로 하는 IG와 레이어 사이의 가중치(weight)을 기반으로 하는 CAM, 그리고 설명가능한 대리 모델을 이용하는 LIME과 입력 속성에 대한 선형모델을 추정하는 SHAP을 사용하였다. 설명자 모델의 특성을 보기 위하여 히트맵과 관련성 높은 N개의 속성을 추출해 보았다. 설명자가 제공하는 기여도에 따라 입력 속성을 제거해 가며 분류기 성능 변화를 측정하는 정량적 평가도 수행하였다. 또한, 사람의 판단 근거와의 일치도를 살펴볼 수 있는 '설명 근거 정확도'라는 새로운 평가 방법을 제안하여 적용해 보았다.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.27 no.3
• /
• pp.173-182
• /
• 2022

In this paper, we propose a machine learning model that can prevent fraudulent transactions in advance and interpret them using the XAI approach. For the experiment, we collected a real data set of 12,258 mobile phone sales posts from Joonggonara, a major domestic online C2C resale trading platform. Characteristics of the text corresponding to the post body were extracted using Doc2vec, dimensionality was reduced through PCA, and various derived variables were created based on previous research. To mitigate the data imbalance problem in the preprocessing stage, a complex sampling method that combines oversampling and undersampling was applied. Then, various machine learning models were built to detect fraudulent postings. As a result of the analysis, LightGBM showed the best performance compared to other machine learning models. And as a result of SHAP, if the price is unreasonably low compared to the market price and if there is no indication of the transaction area, there was a high probability that it was a fraudulent post. Also, high price, no safe transaction, the more the courier transaction, and the higher the ratio of 0 in the price also led to fraud.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
• /
• v.18 no.5
• /
• pp.999-1008
• /
• 2023

Early prediction of chronic diseases such as diabetes is an important issue, and improving the accuracy of diabetes prediction is especially important. Various machine learning and deep learning-based methodologies are being introduced for diabetes prediction, but these technologies require large amounts of data for better performance than other methodologies, and the learning cost is high due to complex data models. In this study, we aim to verify the claim that DNN using the pima dataset and k-fold cross-validation reduces the efficiency of diabetes diagnosis models. Machine learning classification methods such as decision trees, SVM, random forests, logistic regression, KNN, and various ensemble techniques were used to determine which algorithm produces the best prediction results. After training and testing all classification models, the proposed system provided the best results on XGBoost classifier with ADASYN method, with accuracy of 81%, F1 coefficient of 0.81, and AUC of 0.84. Additionally, a domain adaptation method was implemented to demonstrate the versatility of the proposed system. An explainable AI approach using the LIME and SHAP frameworks was implemented to understand how the model predicts the final outcome.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.41-47
• /
• 2022

A reliable prediction model of national occupational accident fatality rate can be used to evaluate level of safety and health protection for workers in a country. Moreover, the socio-economic aspects of occupational accidents can be identified through interpretation of a well-organized prediction model. In this paper, we propose a machine learning based relative comparison methods to predict and interpret a national occupational accident fatality rate based on socio-economic indicators. First, we collected 29 years of the relevant data from 11 developed countries. Second, we applied 4 types of machine learning regression models and evaluate their performance. Third, we interpret the contribution of each input variable using Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP). As a result, Gradient Boosting Regressor showed the best predictive performance. We found that different patterns exist across countries in accordance with different socio-economic variables and occupational accident fatality rate.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
• /
• 2021.07a
• /
• pp.387-390
• /
• 2021

최근 전자 상거래 시장이 급격한 성장을 이루면서 고객들의 급변하는 니즈를 파악하는 것이 기업들의 수익에 직결되는 요소로 인식되고 있다. 이에 기업들은 고객들의 니즈를 신속하고 정확하게 파악하기 위해, 기축적된 고객 관련 각종 데이터를 활용하려는 시도를 강화하고 있다. 기존 시도들은 주로 구매 행동 예측에 중점을 두었으나 고객 행동의 전후 과정을 해석하는데 있어 어려움이 존재했다. 본 연구에서는 고객이 구매한 상품을 확정 또는 환불하는 행동을 취할 때 해당 행동이 발생하는데 있어 어떤 요소들이 작용하였는지를 파악하고, 어떤 고객이 환불할 지를 예측하는 예측 모형을 새롭게 제시한다. 예측 모형 구현에는 트리 기반 앙상블 방법을 사용해 예측력을 높인 XGBoost 기법을 적용하였으며, 고객 의도에 영향을 미치는 요소들을 파악하기 위하여 대표적인 설명가능한 인공지능(XAI) 기법 중 하나인 SHAP 기법을 적용하였다. 이를 통해 특정 고객 행동에 대한 각 요인들의 전반적인 영향 뿐만 아니라, 각 개별 고객에 대해서도 어떤 요소가 환불결정에 영향을 미쳤는지 파악할 수 있었다. 이를 통해 기업은 고객 개개인의 의사 결정에 영향을 미치는 요소를 파악하여 개인화 마케팅에 사용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.