• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.485-500
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• 1999

단계적 금리자율화의 시행을 계기로 금융계에서는 시장금리의 체계적 예측이 중요한 문제점으로 대두되고 있다. 금융의 자율화, 국제화, 대형화는 금융기관간의 경쟁유발과 금융시장의 판도에 심각한 변화를 초래하였다. 또한 시장금리의 변화는 금융기관의 수익에 결정적인 영향을 미친다. 따라서 대부분의 금융기관은 시장금리를 과학적이고 체계적으로 해석하기 위하여 금리결정요인에 대한 연구 및 향후 금리수준을 예측하기 위한 금리예측모형의 개발을 활발히 진행하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 시계열분석에 근거하여 예측의 정확도를 높이고 컴퓨터환경의 체계화로 사용의 편리성을 극대화한 금리예측 시스템을 개발하고 이의 활용도에 대해 논의하고자 한다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.207-223
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• 1995

A new medical delivery system which regulated outpatient department(OPD) use from tertiary care hospitals was adopted in 1989. Under the new system, patients using tertiary care hospital OPD without referral slip from clinics or hospitals could not get any insurance benefit for the services received from the tertiary care hospital. This study was conducted to evaluate the Patient Referral System(PRS) with respect to health care expenditures and utilization. Two data sets were used in this study. One was monthly data set(from January 1986 to December 1992) from the Annual Report of Korea Medical Insurance Corporation(KMIC). The other was monthly joint data set composed of personal data of which 10% were selected randomly with their utilization data of KMIC from January 1988 to December 1992. The data were analyzed by time-series intervention model of SAS-ETS. The results of this study were as follows: 1. There was no statistically significant changes in per capita expenditures following PRS. 2. Utilization episodes per capita was increased statistically significantly after implementation of PRS. The use of clinics and hospitals increased significantly, whereas in tertiary care hospitals the use decreased significantly immediately after implementation of PRS and increased afterwards. 3. Follow-up visits per episode were decreased statistically significantly after implementation of PRS. The decrease of follow-up visits per episode were remarkable in clinics and hospitals, whereas in tertiary care hospitals it was increased significantly after implementation of PRS. 4. There was no statistically significant changes in prescribing days per episode following PRS. Futhermore, clinics and hospitals showed a statistically significant decrease in prescribing days per episode, whereas in tertiary care hospital it showed statistically significant increase after implementation of PRS. 5. Except high income class, the use of tertiary care hospitals showed statistically significant decrease after implementation of PRS. The degree of decrease in the use of tertiary care hospitals was inversely proportional to income. These results suggest that the PRS policy was not efficient because per capita expenditures did not decrease, and was not effective because utilization episodes per capita, follow-up visits per episode. and prescribing days per episode were not predictable and failed to show proper utilization. It was somewhat positive that utilization episodes per capita were decreased temporarily in tertiary care hospitals. And PRS policy was not appropriate because utilization episodes per capita was different among income groups. In conclusion, the PRS should be revised for initial goal attainment of cost containment and proper health care utilization.