• Title/Summary/Keyword: Root-mean-square-error method

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Application of Very Short-Term Rainfall Forecasting to Urban Water Simulation using TREC Method (TREC기법을 이용한 초단기 레이더 강우예측의 도시유출 모의 적용)

  • Kim, Jong Pil;Yoon, Sun Kwon;Kim, Gwangseob;Moon, Young Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.409-423
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    • 2015
  • In this study the very short-term rainfall forecasting and storm water forecasting using the weather radar data were implemented in an urban stream basin. As forecasting time increasing, the very short-term rainfall forecasting results show that the correlation coefficient was decreased and the root mean square error was increased and then the forecasting model accuracy was decreased. However, as a result of the correlation coefficient up to 60-minute forecasting time is maintained 0.5 or higher was obtained. As a result of storm water forecasting in an urban area, the reduction in peak flow and outflow volume with increasing forecasting time occurs, the peak time was analyzed that relatively matched. In the application of storm water forecasting by radar rainfall forecast, the errors has occurred that we determined some of the external factors. In the future, we believed to be necessary to perform that the continuous algorithm improvement such as simulation of rapid generation and disappearance phenomenon by precipitation echo, the improvement of extreme rainfall forecasting in urban areas, and the rainfall-runoff model parameter optimizations. The results of this study, not only urban stream basin, but also we obtained the observed data, and expand the real-time flood alarm system over the ungaged basins. In addition, it is possible to take advantage of development of as multi-sensor based very short-term rainfall forecasting technology.

Comparison Study on the Various Forms of Scale Parameter for the Nonstationary Gumbel Model (다양한 규모매개변수를 이용한 비정상성 Gumbel 모형의 비교 연구)

  • Jang, Hanjin;Kim, Sooyoung;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.331-343
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    • 2015
  • Most nonstationary frequency models are defined as the probability models containing the time-dependent parameters. For frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall data, the Gumbel distribution is generally recommended in Korea. For the nonstationary Gumbel models, the time-dependent location and scale parameters are defined as linear and exponential relationship, respectively. The exponentially time-varying scale parameter of nonstationary Gumbel model is generally used because the scale parameter should be positive. However, the exponential form of scale parameter occasionally provides overestimated quantiles. In this study, various forms of time-varying scale parameters such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic forms were proposed and compared. The parameters were estimated based on the method of maximum likelihood. To compare the accuracy of each scale parameter, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for various conditions. Additionally, nonstationary frequency analysis was conducted for the sites which have more than 30 years data with a trend in rainfall data. As a result, nonstationary Gumbel model with exponentially time-varying scale parameter generally has the smallest root mean square error comparing with another forms.

Implementation of Gait Analysis System Based on Inertial Sensors (관성센서 기반 보행 분석 시스템 구현)

  • Cho, J.S.;Kang, S.I.;Lee, K.H.;Jang, S.H.;Kim, I.Y.;Lee, J.S.
    • Journal of rehabilitation welfare engineering & assistive technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we present an inertial sensor-based gait analysis system to measure and analyze lower-limb movements. We developed an integral AHRS(Attitude Heading Reference System) using a combination of rate gyroscope, accelerometer and magnetometer sensor signals. Several AHRS modules mounted on segments of the patient's body provide the quaternions representing the patient segments's orientation in space. And a method is also proposed for calculating three-dimensional inter-segment joint angle which is an important bio-mechanical measure for a variety of applications related to rehabilitation. To evaluate the performance of our AHRS module, the Vicon motion capture system, which offers millimeter resolution of 3D spatial displacements and orientations, is used as a reference. The evaluation resulted in a RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) of 1.08 and 1.72 degree in yaw and pitch angle. In order to evaluate the performance of our the gait analysis system, we compared the joint angle for the hip, knee and ankle with those provided by Vicon system. The result shows that our system will provide an in-depth insight into the effectiveness, appropriate level of care, and feedback of the rehabilitation process by performing real-time limb or gait analysis during the post-stroke recovery.

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Fault Detection & SPC of Batch Process using Multi-way Regression Method (다축-다변량회귀분석 기법을 이용한 회분식 공정의 이상감지 및 통계적 제어 방법)

  • Woo, Kyoung Sup;Lee, Chang Jun;Han, Kyoung Hoon;Ko, Jae Wook;Yoon, En Sup
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.32-38
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    • 2007
  • A batch Process has a multi-way data structure that consists of batch-time-variable axis, so the statistical modeling of a batch process is a difficult and challenging issue to the process engineers. In this study, We applied a statistical process control technique to the general batch process data, and implemented a fault-detection and Statistical process control system that was able to detect, identify and diagnose the fault. Semiconductor etch process and semi-batch styrene-butadiene rubber process data are used to case study. Before the modeling, we pre-processed the data using the multi-way unfolding technique to decompose the data structure. Multivariate regression techniques like support vector regression and partial least squares were used to identify the relation between the process variables and process condition. Finally, we constructed the root mean squared error chart and variable contribution chart to diagnose the faults.

A Study on the Reduction of Non-Point Source Pollution loads from Small Agricultural Watershed by Applying Surface Covering Scenario using HSPF Model (HSPF 모델을 이용한 지표피복 시나리오 적용에 따른 농촌 소유역에서의 비점원오염 저감연구)

  • Jung, Chung-Gil;Park, Jong-Yoon;Kim, Sang-Ho;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.103-103
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구에서는 시험포장($1276.6m^2$)에서의 지표피복 BMPs (Best Management Practices) 시나리오를 적용하여 얻은 평균 유출저감율을 HSPF 모델에 적용하여 유역차원에서의 비점원오염 저감효과를 평가하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 별미천 유역($1.21km^2$)을 대상으로 모형의 적용을 위한 입력자료로 기상자료와 지형자료를 구축하였으며 기상자료로 수원, 양평, 이천 기상관측소 자료를 구축하였으며, 지형자료로 격자크기 2m의 DEM (Digital Elevation Model)과 토지이용도는 2006년 5월 1일 QuickBird 영상을 제공받아 기존 환경부, 건교부, USGS의 토지피복분류체계 및 현장조사를 통하여 QuickBird 영상으로부터 추출 가능한 정밀농업정보에 대한 항목을 결정하였으며, 정사보정된 QuickBird 영상을 스크린 디지타이징 기법(On-Screen Digitizing Method)을 이용하여 총 21개 토지이용항목의 정밀토지이용도를 구축하였다. 실제모니터링으로 측정된 자료를 바탕으로 수위-유량곡선 산정 및 오염부하곡선을 선정, 2011년 6월 8일부터 10월 31일 분석기간으로 HSPF 모델링을 실시하였으며 모의결과 월별 통계에 따른 적용성 분석으로 RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) 는 1.15 ~ 1.76(mm/day), $R^2$는 0.62 ~ 0.78, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE)는 0.62 ~ 0.76로 모의치는 실측치와 유의성이 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, Sediment, T-N, T-P의 $R^2$는 각각 0.72, 0.62, 0.63으로 상관성을 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 시험포장으로부터 얻어진 event별 볏짚을 이용한 지표피복시나리오적용 후 밭에서의 평균 유출 약 10 % 유출율 감소 조건과 실제 평균 비점원오염 저감효과 89.7 % ~ 99.4 %의 결과로부터 지표피복효과의 침투효과를 HSPF 모델로 적용하기 위해 침투량(INFILT)를 조절하여 평균유출 약 10 %가 감소되는 16.0 mm/hr 값을 선정하였다. 그 결과, Sediment. T-N, T-P의 평균 저감율은 각각 87.2 %, 28.5 %, 85.1 %로 나타났으며 이는 시험포장에서의 실제 평균 비점오염 저감효과 89.7 % ~ 99.4 %에 근접함을 알 수 있었다. 이 결과로부터 침투량 조절에 따른 지표피복(침투짚단)효과는 Sediment, T-P에서 저감효율이 80 % 이상으로 높았지만 T-N은 약 30 %로 낮은 저감율을 보임으로써 저감효과가 크지 않음을 나타냈다.

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Optimization of Wind Turbine Pitch Controller by Neural Network Model Based on Latin Hypercube (라틴 하이퍼큐브 기반 신경망모델을 적용한 풍력발전기 피치제어기 최적화)

  • Lee, Kwangk-Ki;Han, Seung-Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.36 no.9
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    • pp.1065-1071
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    • 2012
  • Wind energy is becoming one of the most preferable alternatives to conventional sources of electric power that rely on fossil fuels. For stable electric power generation, constant rotating speed control of a wind turbine is performed through pitch control and stall control of the turbine blades. Recently, variable pitch control has been implemented in modern wind turbines to harvest more energy at variable wind speeds that are even lower than the rated one. Although wind turbine pitch controllers are currently optimized using a step response via the Ziegler-Nichols auto-tuning process, this approach does not satisfy the requirements of variable pitch control. In this study, the variable pitch controller was optimized by a genetic algorithm using a neural network model that was constructed by the Latin Hypercube sampling method to improve the Ziegler-Nichols auto-tuning process. The optimized solution shows that the root mean square error, rise time, and settle time are respectively improved by more than 7.64%, 15.8%, and 15.3% compared with the corresponding initial solutions obtained by the Ziegler-Nichols auto-tuning process.

Quantitative precipitation estimation of X-band radar using empirical relationship (경험적 관계식을 이용한 X밴드 레이더의 정량적 강우 추정)

  • Song, Jae In;Lim, Sanghun;Cho, Yo Han;Jeong, Hyeon Gyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2022
  • As the occurrences of flash floods have increased due to climate change, faster and more accurate precipitation observation using X-band radar has become important. Therefore, the Ministry of Environment installed two dual-pol X-band radars at Samcheok and Uljin. The radar data used in this study were obtained from two different elevation angles and composed to reduce the shielding effect. To obtain quantitative rainfall, quality control (QC), KDP retrieval, and Hybrid Surface Rainfall (HSR) methods were sequentially applied. To improve the accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) of the X-band radar, we retrieved parameters for the relationship between rainfall rate and specific differential phase, which is commonly called the R-KDP relationship; hence, an empirical approach was developed using multiple rain gauges for those two radars. The newly suggested relationship, R = 27.4K0.81DP, slightly increased the correlation coefficient by 1% more than the relationship suggested by the previous study. The root mean square error significantly decreased from 3.88 mm/hr to 3.68 mm/hr, and the bias of the estimated precipitation also decreased from -1.72 mm/hr to -0.92 mm/hr for overall cases, showing the improvement of the new method.

Youtube Mukbang and Online Delivery Orders: Analysis of Impacts and Predictive Model (유튜브 먹방과 온라인 배달 주문: 영향력 분석과 예측 모형)

  • Choi, Sarah;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2022
  • One of the most important current features of food related industry is the growth of food delivery service. Another notable food related culture is, with the advent of Youtube, the popularity of Mukbang, which refers to content that records eating. Based on these background, this study intended to focus on two things. First, we tried to see the impact of Youtube Mukbang and the sentiments of Mukbang comments on the number of related food deliveries. Next, we tried to set up the predictive modeling of chicken delivery order with machine learning method. We used Youtube Mukbang comments data as well as weather related data as main independent variables. The dependent variable used in this study is the number of delivery order of fried chicken. The period of data used in this study is from June 3, 2015 to September 30, 2019, and a total of 1,580 data were used. For the predictive modeling, we used machine learning methods such as linear regression, ridge, lasso, random forest, and gradient boost. We found that the sentiment of Youtube Mukbang and comments have impacts on the number of delivery orders. The prediction model with Mukban data we set up in this study had better performances than the existing models without Mukbang data. We also tried to suggest managerial implications to the food delivery service industry.

Assembly and Testing of a Visible and Near-infrared Spectrometer with a Shack-Hartmann Wavefront Sensor (샤크-하트만 센서를 이용한 가시광 및 근적외선 분광기 조립 및 평가)

  • Hwang, Sung Lyoung;Lee, Jun Ho;Jeong, Do Hwan;Hong, Jin Suk;Kim, Young Soo;Kim, Yeon Soo;Kim, Hyun Sook
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 2017
  • We report the assembly procedure and performance evaluation of a visible and near-infrared spectrometer in the wavelength region of 400-900 nm, which is later to be combined with fore-optics (a telescope) to form a f/2.5 imaging spectrometer with a field of view of ${\pm}7.68^{\circ}$. The detector at the final image plane is a $640{\times}480$ charge-coupled device with a $24{\mu}m$ pixel size. The spectrometer is in an Offner relay configuration consisting of two concentric, spherical mirrors, the secondary of which is replaced by a convex grating mirror. A double-pass test method with an interferometer is often applied in the assembly process of precision optics, but was excluded from our study due to a large residual wavefront error (WFE) in optical design of 210 nm ($0.35{\lambda}$ at 600 nm) root-mean-square (RMS). This results in a single-path test method with a Shack-Hartmann sensor. The final assembly was tested to have a RMS WFE increase of less than 90 nm over the entire field of view, a keystone of 0.08 pixels, a smile of 1.13 pixels and a spectral resolution of 4.32 nm. During the procedure, we confirmed the validity of using a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor to monitor alignment in the assembly of an Offner-like spectrometer.

The Comparison of Existing Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Method in Korea (국내 기존 합성단위도 방법의 비교)

  • Jeong, Seong-Won;Mun, Jang-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.659-672
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    • 2001
  • Generally, design flood for a hydraulic structure is estimated using statistical analysis of runoff data. However, due to the lack of runoff data, it is difficult that the statistical method is applied for estimation of design flood. In this case, the synthetic unit hydrograph method is used generally and the models such as NYMO method, Snyder method, SCS method, and HYMO method have been widely used in Korea. In this study, these methods and KICT method, which is developed in year 2000, are compared and analyzed in 10 study areas. Firstly, peak flow and peak time of representative unit hydrograph and synthetic unit hydrograph in study area are compared, and secondly, the shape of unit hydrograph is compared using a root mean square error(RMSE). In Nakayasu method developed in Japan, synthetic unit hydrograph is very different from peak flow, peak time, and the shape of representative unit hydrograph, and KICT method(2000) is superior to others. Also, KICT method(2000) is superior to others in the aspects of using hydrologic and topographical data. Therefore, Nakayasu method is not a proper in hydrological practice. Moreover, it is considered that KICT model is a better method for the estimation of design flood. However, if other model, i.e. SCS method, Nakayasu method, and HYMO method, is used, parameters or regression equations must be adjusted by analysis of real data in Korea.

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