• Title/Summary/Keyword: Root-mean-square-error method

검색결과 432건 처리시간 0.026초

수문학적 가뭄전망을 위한 GloSea5의 활용체계 구축 및 예측성 평가 (Construction & Evaluation of GloSea5-Based Hydrological Drought Outlook System)

  • 손경환;배덕효;정현숙
    • 대기
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.271-281
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    • 2015
  • The objectives of this study are to develop a hydrological drought outlook system using GloSea5 (Global Seasonal forecasting system 5) which has recently been used by KMA (Korea Meteorological Association) and to evaluate the forecasting capability. For drought analysis, the bilinear interpolation method was applied to spatially downscale the low-resolution outputs of GloSea5 and PR (Predicted Runoff) was produced for different lead times (i.e., 1-, 2-, 3-month) running LSM (Land Surface Model). The behavior of PR anomaly was similar to that of HR (Historical Runoff) and the estimated values were negative up to lead times of 1- and 2-month. For the evaluation of drought outlook, SRI (Standardized Runoff Index) was selected and PR_SRI estimated using PR. ROC score was 0.83, 0.71, 0.60 for 1-, 2- and 3-month lead times, respectively. It also showed the hit rate is high and false alarm rate is low as shorter lead time. The temporal Correlation Coefficient (CC) was 0.82, 0.60, 0.31 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 0.52, 0.86, 1.20 for 1-, 2-, 3-month lead time, respectively. The accuracy of PR_SRI was high up to 1- and 2-month lead time on local regions except the Gyeonggi and Gangwon province. It can be concluded that GloSea5 has high applicability for hydrological drought outlook.

농업소유역의 홍수유출량 추정을 위한 단위도 모형 비교연구 (A Comparative Study of Unit Hydrograph Models for Flood Runoff Simulation at a Small Watershed)

  • 성충현;김상민;박승우
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제50권3호
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2008
  • In this study, three different unit hydrograph methods (Snyder, SCS, Clark) in the HEC-HMS were compared to find better fit with the observed data in the small agricultural watershed. Baran watershed, having $3.85km^2$ in size, was selected as a study watershed. The watershed input data for HEC-HMS were retrieved using HEC-GeoHMS which was developed to assist making GIS input data for HEC-HMS. Rainfall and water flow data were monitored since 1996 for the study watershed. Fifty five storms from 1996 to 2003 were selected for model calibration and verification. Three unit hydrograph methods were compared with the observed data in terms of simulated peak runoff, peak time and total direct runoff for the selected storms. The results showed that the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) for the observed peak runoff was $0.8666{\sim}0.8736$ and root mean square error, RMSE, was $5.25{\sim}6.37\;m^3/s$ for calibration stages. In the model verification, $R^2$ for the observed peak runoff was $0.8588{\sim}0.8638$ and RMSE was $9.57{\sim}11.80\;m^3/s$, which were slightly less accurate than the calibrated data. The simulated flood hydrographs were well agreed with the observed data. SCS unit hydrograph method showed best fit, but there was no significant difference among the three unit hydrograph methods.

Performance Improvement of the Horizontal Control System for a Tractor Implement Using Sensor Signal from the Front Axle

  • Ro, Young-Min;Moon, Jun-Hee;Kim, Kyeong Uk
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제41권2호
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: Many tractors have adopted the horizontal control system designed to maintain the three-point mounted implements in horizontal position when they are tilted sideways. The control system rotates the implement in the opposite direction to the inclination of rear axle of the tractor. However, the current control system was found to have poor performance in accuracy and response. A new control system was therefore developed to improve the performance. Methods: The new control system was designed to get the response of the implement to be started earlier by using the tilt information from the front axle of the tractor. By this approach, the rotation of the implement can be adjusted as required to make it horizontal at the expected time, even though the response is slow. The optimal values of the control parameters for the new system were determined by computer simulation and validated by a performance test conducted with an obstacle of 120 mm height on a flat concrete surface. The performance of the control system was evaluated by the root mean square error (RMSE) of the rotation angle of the implement with respect to the actual inclination of the rear axle. Results: The new control system reduced the RMSE of the current control system by 44.6% indicating a high performance improvement. The inclination of the front axle was easily obtained from a sensor mounted on the front axle of the tractor and used as input to the new control system. Conclusions: The method of getting the response of the implement to be started earlier by utilizing the inclination information of the front axle can be applied to improve the performance of the current control system at least cost.

Astronomical Instruments with Two Scales Drawn on Their Common Circumference of Rings in the Joseon Dynasty

  • Mihn, Byeong-Hee;Choi, Goeun;Lee, Yong Sam
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2017
  • This study examines the scale unique instruments used for astronomical observation during the Joseon dynasty. The Small Simplified Armillary Sphere (小簡儀, So-ganui) and the Sun-and-Stars Time-Determining Instrument (日星定時儀, Ilseong-jeongsi-ui) are minimized astronomical instruments, which can be characterized, respectively, as an observational instrument and a clock, and were influenced by the Simplified Armilla (簡儀, Jianyi) of the Yuan dynasty. These two instruments were equipped with several rings, and the rings of one were similar both in size and in scale to those of the other. Using the classic method of drawing the scale on the circumference of a ring, we analyze the scales of the Small Simplified Armillary Sphere and the Sun-and-Stars Time-Determining Instrument. Like the scale feature of the Simplified Armilla, we find that these two instruments selected the specific circumference which can be drawn by two kinds of scales. If Joseon's astronomical instruments is applied by the dual scale drawing on one circumference, we suggest that 3.14 was used as the ratio of the circumference of circle, not 3 like China, when the ring's size was calculated in that time. From the size of Hundred-interval disk of the extant Simplified Sundial in Korea, we make a conclusion that the three rings' diameter of the Sun-and-Stars Time-Determining Instrument described in the Sejiong Sillok (世宗實錄, Veritable Records of the King Sejong) refers to that of the middle circle of every ring, not the outer circle. As analyzing the degree of 28 lunar lodges (lunar mansions) in the equator written by Chiljeongsan-naepyeon (七政算內篇, the Inner Volume of Calculation of the Motions of the Seven Celestial Determinants), we also obtain the result that the scale of the Celestial-circumference-degree in the Small Simplified Armillary Sphere was made with a scale error about 0.1 du in root mean square (RMS).

건물일체형 태양광발전 시스템 성능평가 프로그램 개발 (The Development of Performance Evaluation Program of Building Integrated Photovoltaic System)

  • 김법전;박재완;윤종호;신우철
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.85-90
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: In design and planning Building Integrated Photovoltaic(BIPV) system can reduce cost by replacing building facade as construction material such as roofs, outer walls and windows as well as generating electricity. BIPV system should be applied at the early stage of architectural design. However, it is hard to decide whether using BIPV system or not for architects and builders who are not professional at BIPV system because performance of system is considerably influenced by types of module, installation position, installation methods and so on. It is also hard for experts because commercialized analytical program of photovoltaic systems is too complicated to use and domestic meteorological data is limited to partial areas. Therefore, we need evaluation program of BIPV system which can easily but accurately interpret generating performance and evaluate validity of BIPV system at the early stage of architectural design even for inexpert. Method: In this study, we collected meteorological data of domestic major region and analyzed generation characteristic of BIPV system by using PVsyst(commercialized software) in accordance with regions, types of solar module, place and methods of installation and so on. Based on this data, we developed performance evaluation program of BIPV system named BIPV-Pro, through multiple regression analysis and evaluated its validity. Result: When comparing predictive value of annual average PR and annual electricity production of BIPV-Pro an that of PVsyst, each of root mean square error was 0.01897 and 123.9.

기상자료 보간 방법에 의한 GPS기반 가강수량 산출 정확도 분석 (Accuracy Analysis of GPS-derived Precipitable Water Vapor According to Interpolation Methods of Meteorological Data)

  • 김두식;원지혜;김혜인;김경희;박관동
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2010
  • 우리나라에는 100여개의 GPS 상시관측소가 설치되어 있으나 대략 10개의 관측소만이 GPS 전용 기상센서를 보유하고 있다. 따라서 전국을 대상으로 하는 GPS 가강수량 산출을 위해서는 주변 AWS의 가상자료 보간에 의한 GPS 관측소 기상정보의 생성이 필요하다. 이 연구에서는 가상자료 보간 방법인 역해면경정과 크리깅의 보간 정확도를 분석하였다. 그 결과 역해변경정법의 RMSE가 기압의 경우 약 7배, 기온의 경우 약 2배 더 정확함을 확인하였다. PWV 정확도 분석을 위해 역해면경정법으로 보간된 기상자료와 GPS 관측자료를 이용해 2008년 여름철에 대한 GPS PWV를 산출하였다. 보간 기상 자료를 이용한 GPS PWV를 GPS 전용 기상센서의 값을 사용한 PWV, 라디오존데 PWV와 비교하였다. 비교 결과 보간 기상자료를 이용한 GPS PWV 가 요구 정확도 3mm이내를 만족함을 확인하였다.

Growth Modelling of Listeria monocytogenes in Korean Pork Bulgogi Stored at Isothermal Conditions

  • Lee, Na-Kyoung;Ahn, Sin Hye;Lee, Joo-Yeon;Paik, Hyun-Dong
    • 한국축산식품학회지
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.108-113
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to develop predictive models for the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in pork Bulgogi at various storage temperatures. A two-strain mixture of L. monocytogenes (ATCC 15313 and isolated from pork Bulgogi) was inoculated on pork Bulgogi at 3 Log CFU/g. L. monocytogenes strains were enumerated using general plating method on Listeria selective medium. The inoculated samples were stored at 5, 15, and $25^{\circ}C$ for primary models. Primary models were developed using the Baranyi model equations, and the maximum specific growth rate was shown to be dependent on storage temperature. A secondary model of growth rate as a function of storage temperature was also developed. As the storage temperature increased, the lag time (LT) values decreased dramatically and the specific growth rate of L. monocytogenes increased. The mathematically predicted growth parameters were evaluated based on the modified bias factor ($B_f$), accuracy factor ($A_f$), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination ($R^2$), and relative errors (RE). These values indicated that the developed models were reliably able to predict the growth of L. monocytogenes in pork Bulgogi. Hence, the predictive models may be used to assess microbiological hygiene in the meat supply chain as a function of storage temperature.

Estimation of Fractional Vegetation Cover in Sand Dunes Using Multi-spectral Images from Fixed-wing UAV

  • Choi, Seok Keun;Lee, Soung Ki;Jung, Sung Heuk;Choi, Jae Wan;Choi, Do Yoen;Chun, Sook Jin
    • 한국측량학회지
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.431-441
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    • 2016
  • Since the use of UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) is convenient for the acquisition of data on broad or inaccessible regions, it is nowadays used to establish spatial information for various fields, such as the environment, ecosystem, forest, or for military purposes. In this study, the process of estimating FVC (Fractional Vegetation Cover), based on multi-spectral UAV, to overcome the limitations of conventional methods is suggested. Hence, we propose that the FVC map is generated by using multi-spectral imaging. First, two types of result classifications were obtained based on RF (Random Forest) using RGB images and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) with RGB images. Then, the result map was reclassified into vegetation and non-vegetation. Finally, an FVC map-based RF were generated by using pixel calculation and FVC map-based GI (Gutman and Ignatov) model were indirectly made by fixed parameters. The method of adding NDVI shows a relatively higher accuracy compared to that of adding only RGB, and in particular, the GI model shows a lower RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) with 0.182 than RF. In this regard, the availability of the GI model which uses only the values of NDVI is higher than that of RF whose accuracy varies according to the results of classification. Our results showed that the GI mode ensures the quality of the FVC if the NDVI maintained at a uniform level. This can be easily achieved by using a UAV, which can provide vegetation data to improve the estimation of FVC.

안테나 간격 및 배열에 따른 위상 비교 모노펄스 알고리즘의 성능 분석 (A Performance Analysis of Phase Comparison Monopulse Algorithm for Antenna Spacing and Antenna Array)

  • 심헌교;정민아;김성철
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제40권7호
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    • pp.1413-1419
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    • 2015
  • 모노 펄스 레이더는 단일 송신 신호를 이용해 목표물의 위치를 예측해 내는 레이더이다. 본 논문은 9.41GHz의 X밴드 대역 주파수를 이용하여 해양 환경에서 선박용 레이더에 사용 될 각도 추정 기술로써 위상 비교 모노펄스 알고리즘에 대한 연구를 수행하였다. 또한, 위상 비교 모노펄스 알고리즘을 이용하여 안테나 간격과 타겟의 위치에 따른 평균 제곱근 오차를 계산해 보았다. 이를 이용하여 선형 배열 안테나를 사용할 때와 비선형 배열 안테나를 사용할 때의 위상 비교 모노펄스 알고리즘 성능을 비교 하였다. 마지막으로 본 논문에서 제안한 위상 비교 모노펄스 알고리즘과 MUSIC, BARTLETT 알고리즘의 성능 차이를 분석해 보았다.

Assessing Unit Hydrograph Parameters and Peak Runoff Responses from Storm Rainfall Events: A Case Study in Hancheon Basin of Jeju Island

  • Kar, Kanak Kanti;Yang, Sung-Kee;Lee, Jun-Ho
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.437-447
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    • 2015
  • Estimation of runoff peak is needed to assess water availability, in order to support the multifaceted water uses and functions, hence to underscore the modalities for efficient water utilization. The magnitude of storm rainfall acts as a primary input for basin level runoff computation. The rainfall-runoff linkage plays a pivotal role in water resource system management and feasibility level planning for resource distribution. Considering this importance, a case study has been carried out in the Hancheon basin of Jeju Island where distinctive hydrological characteristics are investigated for continuous storm rainfall and high permeable geological features. The study aims to estimate unit hydrograph parameters, peak runoff and peak time of storm rainfalls based on Clark unit hydrograph method. For analyzing observed runoff, five storm rainfall events were selected randomly from recent years' rainfall and HEC-hydrologic modeling system (HMS) model was used for rainfall-runoff data processing. The simulation results showed that the peak runoff varies from 164 to 548 m3/sec and peak time (onset) varies from 8 to 27 hours. A comprehensive relationship between Clark unit hydrograph parameters (time of concentration and storage coefficient) has also been derived in this study. The optimized values of the two parameters were verified by the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and runoff comparison performance were analyzed by root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) estimation. After statistical analysis of the Clark parameters significance level was found in 5% and runoff performances were found as 3.97 RMSE and 0.99 NSE, respectively. The calibration and validation results indicated strong coherence of unit hydrograph model responses to the actual situation of historical storm runoff events.