• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk-informed design

검색결과 25건 처리시간 0.02초

위험도 및 성능기반 분석방법에 의한 원전 화재방호규정 적용 방안 (Application for Fire Protection Regulation based on Risk-Informed and Performance-Based Analysis)

  • 지문학;이병곤
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
    • /
    • 제20권3호
    • /
    • pp.65-70
    • /
    • 2006
  • 원자력발전소의 화재방호규정은 발전소 건설 초기단계에서 인허가 요건에서 제시하는 설계기준을 따른다. 이러한 규정은 발전소 정상상태를 기준한 것이며 발전소 과도상태, 배열이 변경될 수 있는 계획예방정비기간 또는 발전소 해체기간의 화재방호 적용기준으로는 부족한 실정이다. 최근 미국에서 개발되고 있는 화재방호요건은 발전소 전체 수명기간에 걸쳐 성능기반 요건과 관리기준을 제시하고 있으나 발전소 상태 변경에 따른 정성적 및 정량적 평가를 위한 적용기준이라기 보다 개념적 적용방법을 제시하고 있다. 반면, 성능기반 화재위험 분석기법은 원전의 화재방호구역을 하나의 분석공간으로 설정한 다음 열 및 연기의 유동을 해석하며, 실내의 안전성 관련 기기 및 케이블에 대한 열적 영향을 평가한다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 새로운 정량적 분석기술을 국내 원전에 적용하기 위한 목적으로 원전 화재방호규정의 적용방법 변경 방안과 발전소 상태변경에 대한 위험도 평가 항목을 구분하여 제시하였다.

Adherence to Recommended Treatments for Early Invasive Breast Cancer: Decisions of Women Attending Surgeons in the Breast Cancer Audit of Australia and New Zealand

  • Roder, David M.;Silva, Primali De;Zorbas, Helen N.;Webster, Fleur;Kollias, James;Pyke, Chris M.;Campbell, Ian D.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • 제13권4호
    • /
    • pp.1675-1682
    • /
    • 2012
  • Aim: The study aim was to determine the frequency with which women decline clinicians' treatment recommendations and variations in this frequency by age, cancer and service descriptors. Design: The study included 36,775 women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer in 1998-2005 and attending Australian and New Zealand breast surgeons. Rate ratios for declining treatment were examined by descriptor, using bilateral and multiple logistic regression analyses. Proportional hazards regression was used in exploratory analyses of associations with breast cancer death. Results: 3.4% of women declined a recommended treatment of some type, ranging from 2.6% for women under 40 years to 5.8% for those aged 80 years or more, and with parallel increases by age presenting for declining radiotherapy (p<0.001) and axillary surgery (p=0.006). Multiple regression confirmed that common predictors of declining various treatments included low surgeon case load, treatment outside major city centres, and older age. Histological features suggesting a favourable prognosis were often predictive of declining various treatments, although reverse findings also applied with women with positive nodal status being more likely to decline a mastectomy and those with larger tumours more likely to decline chemotherapy. While survival analyses lacked statistical power due to small numbers, higher risks of breast cancer death were suggested, after adjusting for age and conventional clinical risk factors, (1) for women not receiving breast surgery for unstated reasons (RR=2.29; p<0.001); and (2) although not approaching statistical significance $p{\geq}0.200$), for women declining radiotherapy (RR=1.22), a systemic therapy (RR1.11), and more specifically, chemotherapy (RR=1.41). Conclusions: Women have the right to choose their treatments but reasons for declining recommendations require further study to ensure that choices are well informed and clinical outcomes are optimized.

RELIABILITY DATA UPDATE USING CONDITION MONITORING AND PROGNOSTICS IN PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT

  • KIM, HYEONMIN;LEE, SANG-HWAN;PARK, JUN-SEOK;KIM, HYUNGDAE;CHANG, YOON-SUK;HEO, GYUNYOUNG
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제47권2호
    • /
    • pp.204-211
    • /
    • 2015
  • Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has had a significant role in quantitative decision-making by finding design and operational vulnerabilities and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. In particular, it has been widely used as the core methodology for risk-informed applications (RIAs). Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still "conservative" aspects. One of the sources for the conservatism is the assumptions of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, diagnosis, and prognosis (SDP), utilizing massive databases and information technology, is worth highlighting in terms of its capability for alleviating the conservatism in conventional PSA. This article provides enabling techniques to solidify a method to provide time- and condition-dependent risks by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs) and probability of basic events (BEs). Two illustrative examples will be introduced: (1) how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and (2) how the IE frequency for a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of core damage frequency (CDF) depending on operational conditions.

ADR을 통한 저작권분쟁 해결에 관한 검토 (The Role of ADR in the Resolution of the Copyright Disputes)

  • 김선정
    • 한국중재학회지:중재연구
    • /
    • 제21권2호
    • /
    • pp.85-112
    • /
    • 2011
  • These days utilization of copyright in daily life and economic activities is becoming more important than ever, and IT technology is developing day by day. Along with those fact, copyright infringement and dispute is naturally increasing. This thesis dealt with the 3 different issues of ADR on copyright. The First part, introduce ADR system that was performed by Korea Copyright Committee according to Copyright law. This paper evaluate the committee's efforts to provide resolution of copyright disputes via conciliation was effective. So it needs to be look over several countries' ADR, beside conventional judicial remedy. And Korea's copyright conciliation system which is successfully operating also introduced. Second, In many countries, including South Korea are take advantage of conciliation as the way to settle down the dispute over copyright. Furthermore, looked over if we can use arbitration as tool to settle dispute or not. Currently in Korea, patent dispute is handled by Industrial Property Dispute Conciliation Committee(The Invention Promotion Act Ch.5) and Layout-design Review and Mediation Committee(The Act on the Layout-designs of Semiconductor Integrated Circuits Art.29-34), but using performance of those two committee is still too low. In comparison, the copyright committee, a affiliation organization of the ministry of culture, sports and tourism has much more result in conciliation compare with patent dispute. Copyright disputes has arbitrability of it's subject-matter and many regulating organs are interested in it. (especially, binding of arbitral award and final resolution). Take advantage of both conciliation and arbitration could be good way to resolve copyright disputes. Third, the writer look at the proposal on the creation of Northeast Regional Center for Intellectual Property ADR. Because of the nature of copyright and rapid development of internet technology, international use of work become more frequent and accordingly infringement cases are increasing. The role of commercial arbitration regimes and institutions which has progressed significantly worldwide level, but which has only just begun in the intellectual property ADR area, leads also to a clash of often very different legal cultures and protection in a market economy. International cooperation in regional area with conflict interests becomes an important alternative. But it will depend on the building of regional institutions and mechanisms. The feasibility of this proposal and preconditions were examined. Establishment of new international organization requires a lot of time, cost and efforts. And risk of failure is much too high. Therefore factual, statistical review should be preceded. In addition, technical measures, such as on-line arbitration is necessary to review also. Furthermore in order to establish new organization, the relative law, legal environment, public sentiment and international compliance must be carefully considered with factual review about the needs and economic benefits of each country Yet on complex regulatory matters such as IP and ADR, a great deal of the potential benefits from international standards arises not from the international legal framework nor even the formal content of national legislation, but from the informed and effective use made of the possibilities within the system, including by policymakers and regulators.

  • PDF

Status Quo Bias in Ocean Marine Insurance and Implications for Korean Trade

  • Jung, Hongjoo;Lim, Soyoung
    • Journal of Korea Trade
    • /
    • 제25권5호
    • /
    • pp.39-57
    • /
    • 2021
  • Purpose - This research uses ocean marine insurance (OMI) statistics, international emails, focus-group interviews, and surveys to fill the gap between the theory of behavioral insurance, particularly status quo bias (SQB), and the practice of OMI in Korea. The contractual forms of OMI, the oldest and most globalized form of commercial insurance, were developed in the UK as the Institute Cargo Clauses in 1906 and revised in 1963, 1982, and 2009. SQB has been academically explored, mostly in health insurance and the financial services sector, but never in OMI. Thanks to the availability of OMI statistics in Korea, we can conduct SQB research here for the first time in this field. Design/methodology - We show the existence of SQB in the OMI of Korea through Korean statistics between 2009 and 2018, email correspondence with experts in the UK, Germany, and Japan, focus-group interviews with Korean OMI underwriters, an in-depth interview with one underwriter, and a survey of 15 OMI insureds (company representatives). Findings - We find that Korean foreign traders rely on the old-type OMI contracts developed in 1963, whereas other industrialized countries use the newest type of OMI contract developed in 2009. With a simple loss ratio analysis during 2009-2018, we show that the behavior of insurers has little to do with rational profit maximization and is instead driven by irrational bias, as they forgo the more profitable contracts provided by the new clauses by keeping the old clauses. The consistent addiction to old types of contracts in the OMI market suggests strong SQB among Korean exporters, importers, bankers, or insurers, which we confirmed in our interviews and survey. Originality/value - This research has significant originality and academic value because it reports new findings with crucial implications for the development of efficient trade practices and policy. First, this research is based on actual statistics that have not been used in previous Korean research on OMI. Second, this research shows that all-risk OMI policies provide more value to insureds, in terms of coverage given premium, than partial coverage policies, which differs from arguments previously made in Korea. Third, this research reveals strong SQB in Korea, where foreign trade plays a pivotal role in economic growth. That bias could be attributable to uninformed traders, informed but idle insurers, or conservative bankers. Fourth, to further develop foreign trade, policy initiatives are needed to review the current practices of OMI contracts and move forward with the new contract forms. All of these findings and arguments are both new and important.