• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk-informed decision making

검색결과 28건 처리시간 0.025초

Risk-Scoring System for Prediction of Non-Curative Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection Requiring Additional Gastrectomy in Patients with Early Gastric Cancer

  • Kim, Tae-Se;Min, Byung-Hoon;Kim, Kyoung-Mee;Yoo, Heejin;Kim, Kyunga;Min, Yang Won;Lee, Hyuk;Rhee, Poong-Lyul;Kim, Jae J.;Lee, Jun Haeng
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.368-378
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: When patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) undergo non-curative endoscopic submucosal dissection requiring gastrectomy (NC-ESD-RG), additional medical resources and expenses are required for surgery. To reduce this burden, predictive model for NC-ESD-RG is required. Materials and Methods: Data from 2,997 patients undergoing ESD for 3,127 forceps biopsy-proven differentiated-type EGCs (2,345 and 782 in training and validation sets, respectively) were reviewed. Using the training set, the logistic stepwise regression analysis determined the independent predictors of NC-ESD-RG (NC-ESD other than cases with lateral resection margin involvement or piecemeal resection as the only non-curative factor). Using these predictors, a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG was developed. Performance of the predictive model was examined internally with the validation set. Results: Rate of NC-ESD-RG was 17.3%. Independent pre-ESD predictors for NC-ESD-RG included moderately differentiated or papillary EGC, large tumor size, proximal tumor location, lesion at greater curvature, elevated or depressed morphology, and presence of ulcers. A risk-score was assigned to each predictor of NC-ESD-RG. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting NC-ESD-RG was 0.672 in both training and validation sets. A risk-score of 5 points was the optimal cut-off value for predicting NC-ESD-RG, and the overall accuracy was 72.7%. As the total risk score increased, the predicted risk for NC-ESD-RG increased from 3.8% to 72.6%. Conclusions: We developed and validated a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG based on pre-ESD variables. Our risk-scoring system can facilitate informed consent and decision-making for preoperative treatment selection between ESD and surgery in patients with EGC.

펀드 위험감소행동과 선택속성이 펀드투자행동에 미치는 영향 (The Effects of the Risk Reduction Behavior and the Choice Attribute on the Fund Investment Behaviors)

  • 장부연;하규수
    • 벤처창업연구
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.161-170
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    • 2015
  • 펀드는 최근 들어 대표적인 금융투자상품으로서 많은 인기를 끌고 있다. 본 연구는 펀드투자에 대한 의사결정과정에서 투자자들이 어떠한 요인을 고려하는지를 분석하였다. 본 연구의 목적은 투자자들의 위험감소행동과 펀드선택속성이 펀드투자행동에 미치는 영향력을 분석하고자 한다. 연구의 대상은 펀드 가입 경험이 있는 투자자를 대상으로 설문조사를 하였으며, 자료수집은 2014년 12월부터 2015년 1월 30일까지 하여 총431개 투자자를 분석의 대상으로 하였다. 본 연구결과 펀드 판매회사, 펀드 이해력, 펀드성과는 펀드만족도에 정적인 영향을 미쳤으며, 상업적 광고는 부적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 펀드 운영회사, 수익성, 펀드이해력, 펀드성과, 주변추천은 펀드의 지속적인 거래의도에 정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과를 통해서 펀드투자 만족도와 지속적인 거래의도를 증가시키기 위해서는 펀드성과에 대한 정보제공을 바탕으로 투자자 스스로 의사결정을 할 수 있도록 유도해야하며, 펀드정보는 펀드 이해력을 향상시킬 수 있도록 투자자에게 제공되어야 할 것이다.

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임상간호사의 윤리적 이슈 경험과 윤리교육 요구 (Experiences of Ethical Issues and Needs for Ethics Education in Clinical Nurses)

  • 신자현;정석희;이명하;양영란
    • 간호행정학회지
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.327-339
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: This study was done to identify the experiences of ethical issues and needs for ethics education in clinical nurses. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was used and data were collected in 2013. Participants were 428 clinical nurses working in the general units of seven medical hospitals. The Ethical Issues in Clinical Practice Tool was used. Data analysis was performed using SPSS/WIN 19.0. Results: 'Providing care with a possible risk to your health' was the most frequent and disturbing ethical problems for nurses. The highest helpful ethical topic was 'the patients' right, autonomy and informed consent'. The ethical issue experience was significantly different according to education level, work units, and type of employment. The necessity of ethics education was statistically different according to age, religion, level of education, duration of working as RN, position, shift type, and continuing education about nursing ethics. Conclusion: The results of this study show that nursing educators need to provide practical ethics education based on frequent ethical issues and helpful education topics. These findings can be used in developing effective education strategies for clinical nurses and nursing organizations to improve nurses' ethical decision-making abilities.

RELIABILITY DATA UPDATE USING CONDITION MONITORING AND PROGNOSTICS IN PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT

  • KIM, HYEONMIN;LEE, SANG-HWAN;PARK, JUN-SEOK;KIM, HYUNGDAE;CHANG, YOON-SUK;HEO, GYUNYOUNG
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제47권2호
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    • pp.204-211
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    • 2015
  • Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has had a significant role in quantitative decision-making by finding design and operational vulnerabilities and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. In particular, it has been widely used as the core methodology for risk-informed applications (RIAs). Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still "conservative" aspects. One of the sources for the conservatism is the assumptions of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, diagnosis, and prognosis (SDP), utilizing massive databases and information technology, is worth highlighting in terms of its capability for alleviating the conservatism in conventional PSA. This article provides enabling techniques to solidify a method to provide time- and condition-dependent risks by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs) and probability of basic events (BEs). Two illustrative examples will be introduced: (1) how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and (2) how the IE frequency for a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of core damage frequency (CDF) depending on operational conditions.

Synthesis of Evidence to Support EMS Personnel's Mental Health During Disease Outbreaks: A Scoping Review

  • Bronson B. Du;Sara Rezvani;Philip Bigelow;Behdin Nowrouzi-Kia;Veronique M. Boscart;Marcus Yung;Amin Yazdani
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.379-386
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    • 2022
  • Emergency medical services (EMS) personnel are at high risk for adverse mental health outcomes during disease outbreaks. To support the development of evidence-informed mitigation strategies, we conducted a scoping review to identify the extent of research pertaining to EMS personnel's mental health during disease outbreaks and summarized key factors associated with mental health outcomes. We systematically searched three databases for articles containing keywords within three concepts: EMS personnel, disease outbreaks, and mental health. We screened and retained original peer-reviewed articles that discussed, in English, EMS personnel's mental health during disease outbreaks. Where inferential statistics were reported, the associations between individual and work-related factors and mental health outcomes were synthesized. Twenty-five articles were eligible for data extraction. Our findings suggest that many of the contributing factors for adverse mental health outcomes are related to inadequacies in fulfilling EMS personnel's basic safety and informational needs. In preparation for future disease outbreaks, resources should be prioritized toward ensuring adequate provisions of personal protective equipment and infection prevention and control training. This scoping review serves as a launching pad for further research and intervention development.

원전 이용률의 의의 및 증진방안 고찰 (A Study on the Significance of Unit Capacity Factor (Utilization Rate) of Nuclear Power Plants and Measures for Increasing)

  • 이돈국;반치범
    • 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2022
  • Unit capacity factor (utilization rate) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is an important performance indicator. Since the first commercial operation of Kori Unit 1 began in April 1978, the utilization rate of domestic NPPs has gradually increased, reaching 90% from the end of the 1990s. However, due to various issues such as the Fukushima accident in 2011, corrosion of the CLP, the utilization rate dropped to 65~80%. In the early 1980s, the utilization rate of the U.S. NPPs was around 60%. However, since 2004, it has been consistently maintained above 90%. Therefore, in this study, we first examined the causes of declining the utilization rate in domestic NPPs. Next, the significances of the utilization rates are reviewed in five aspects: investment capability, electricity rate, safety and export, etc., with discussion on the current status of the utilization rates in the U.S. Based on this, three key factors are derived as the reasons of the increasing: equipment reliability program, on-line maintenance and the pursuit of institutional rationality. And finally, by synthesizing above results, the measures for increasing the utilization rate of domestic NPPs are proposed in terms of equipment management, institutional improvements, and personnel resources.

온도와 시간을 주요 변수로 한 냉장 돈육에서의 native isolated Listeria monocytogenes에 대한 성장예측모델 (Predictive Growth Model of Native Isolated Listeria monocytogenes on raw pork as a Function of Temperature and Time)

  • 홍종해;심우창;천석조;김용수;오덕환;하상도;최원상;박경진
    • 한국식품과학회지
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    • 제37권5호
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    • pp.850-855
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구는 냉장돈육에서의 식중독 원인균이면서 냉장온도에서 성장이 가능한 병원성균인 L. monocytogenes에 대한 적절한 위생관리를 제시하기 위하여 포장돈육 작업장 원료돈육에서 분리된 야생균주 L. monocytogenes 이용하여 돈육포장공정 및 유통조건에서의 L. mnocytogenes에 대한 성장예측모델을 제시하고자 실시하였다. 성장실험은 온도 5, 10, 15, $20^{\circ}C$ 시간은 0, 1, 2, 3, 18, 48, 120시간에서 실시하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 온도별 Gompertz value인 A, C, B, M의 값과 Growth kinetic인 exponential growth rate(EGR), generation time(GT), lag phase duration(LPD), maximum population density(MPD)를 산출하였다. GT, LPD는 온도가 상승할수록 그 값이 점점 낮아지는 경향을 나타났으며, EGR의 경우는 반대로 온도가 높아질수록 점점 높아지는 경향을 나타냈다. Gompertz value중 B와 M 값을 이용하여 온도를 주요 control factor로 선정한 반응표면분석(Response surface analysis)을 실시하여 온도에 따른 다항식을 산출하였고 이 식을 Gompertz 식에 적용하여 온도와 시간에 따른 냉장돈육에서의 L. monocytogenes에 대한 성장정도를 예측할 수 있는 성장예측모델을 제시하였다. 개발된 성장예측모델에 대한 검증은 GT, LPD, EGR에 대한 실험값과 예측값의 비교를 통하여 실시하였으며, 그 결과 GT, LPD, EGR 모두 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났다(p<0.01). 따라서 이 모델은 risk assessment 중 exposure assessment를 위한 성장예측모델로 충분히 이용가능 한 것으로 보이며, 추후 냉장돈육 위성관리기준에 대한 과학적 근거자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측 (The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF)

  • 양수연;이채록;원종관;홍태호
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.237-262
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구는 개인투자자들의 투자의사결정에 도움을 주고자, 증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용해 공모주의 상장 5거래일 이후 주식 가격 등락을 예측하는 모델을 제시한다. 연구 표본은 2009년 6월부터 2020년 12월 사이에 신규 상장된 691개의 국내 IPO 종목이다. 기업, 공모, 시장과 관련된 다양한 재무적 및 비재무적 IPO 관련 변수와 증권신고서의 어조를 분석하여 예측했고, 증권신고서의 어조 분석을 위해서 TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency)에 기반한 텍스트 분석을 이용해 신고서의 투자위험요소란의 텍스트를 긍정적 어조, 중립적 어조, 부정적 어조로 분류하였다. 가격 등락 예측에는 로지스틱 회귀분석(Logistic Regression), 랜덤 포레스트(Random Forest), 서포트벡터머신(Support Vector Machine), 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Network) 기법을 사용하였고, 예측 결과 IPO 관련 변수와 증권신고서 어조 변수를 함께 사용한 모델이 IPO 관련 변수만을 사용한 모델보다 높은 예측 정확도를 보였다. 랜덤 포레스트 모형은 1.45%p 높아진 예측 정확도를 보였으며, 인공신공망 모형과 서포트벡터머신 모형은 각각 4.34%p, 5.07%p 향상을 보였다. 추가적으로 모형간 차이를 맥니마 검정을 통해 통계적으로 검증한 결과, 어조 변수의 유무에 따른 예측 모형의 성과 차이가 유의확률 1% 수준에서 유의했다. 이를 통해, 증권신고서에 표현된 어조가 공모주의 가격 등락 예측에 영향을 미치는 요인이라는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.