• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-Return Relationship

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Determinants of Profitability in Commercial Banks in Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand

  • DAO, Binh Thi Thanh;NGUYEN, Dung Phuong
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.133-143
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    • 2020
  • The paper investigates the factors affecting the profitability of commercial banks in Asian developing countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. We use panel data of four entities; ten banks in Vietnam, eight banks in Malaysia, nine banks in Thailand and all 27 commercial banks from the period 2012 to 2016. Particularly, Return on Asset, Return on Equity and TOBINQ are defined as profitability indicators, which are impacted by three main types of independent variables, namely bank-specifics, which include CAR, NPL, Cost to income, Liquidity ratio and Bank size, industry-specific variable-concentration HHI and macroeconomic-specific variables, which consist of GDP growth and Inflation. Using panel data regressions, the paper identifies several similarities and differences among empirical results on the models of four entities, each of three countries and the overall sample. The most outstanding similarity is that all entities record the significantly negative relationship between operational risk and banking profitability. Likewise, the significantly negative influence of bank size to profitability is found on models of Vietnam and Thailand and no significant effect on the model of Malaysia. Meanwhile, the most controversial result comes up with the negative relationship between CAR and profitability indicators as well as the positive association between credit risk and banking profitability.

Reclaiming Multifaceted Financial Risk Information from Correlated Cash Flows under Uncertainty

  • Byung-Cheol Kim;Euysup Shim;Seong Jin Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.602-607
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    • 2013
  • Financial risks associated with capital investments are often measured with different feasibility indicators such as the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This paper aims at demonstrating practical applications of probabilistic feasibility analysis techniques for an integrated feasibility evaluation of the IRR and PBP. The IRR and PBP are concurrently analyzed in order to measure the profitability and liquidity, respectively, of a cash flow. The cash flow data of a real wind turbine project is used in the study. The presented approach consists of two phases. First, two newly reported analysis techniques are used to carry out a series of what-if analyses for the IRR and PBP. Second, the relationship between the IRR and PBP is identified using Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that the integrated feasibility evaluation of stochastic cash flows becomes a more viable option with the aide of newly developed probabilistic analysis techniques. It is also shown that the relationship between the IRR and PBP for the wind turbine project can be used as a predictive model for the actual IRR at the end of the service life based on the actual PBP of the project early in the service life.

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Effect of Earnings Management and Stock Options on the Disclosure Effect of Share Repurchases (이익조정과 스톡옵션이 자사주 매입 공시효과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Kyung-Soon;Kim, Yu-jin;Kim, Hong-Ryeol
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.343-359
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between earnings management and the disclosure effect of share repurchase. In addition, we analyze whether the relationship between earnings management and share repurchase is affected by executive stock options. Design/methodology/approach - We calculate the discretionary accrual amount for the year immediately preceding the share repurchase and the cumulative excess return around the announcement of the share repurchase, and examine the relationship between the two by regression analysis. Findings - We confirmed a negative relationship between discretionary accrual in the year immediately preceding the share repurchase and the market response to the share repurchase disclosure. In particular, it was found that the negative relationship between discretionary accrual and stock price return on share repurchase announcement was found to decrease in companies to which executive stock options were granted. Research implications or Originality - When uncertainties exist in the motives for share repurchase, we find that earnings management and executive stock options can be useful tools for reducing the adverse selection risk inherent in share repurchase announcements.

An Analysis of the Relationship between Stock Prices and Trading Volume (거래량 정보와 주가 간의 관계분석)

  • Kwak, Byung-Gwan
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.26
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2008
  • Since Capital Asset Pricing Model(CAPM) was proposed in the early 1960s by William Sharpe(1964) and John Lintner(1965) researchers have investigated the validity of the model. The results of empirical researches do not show that expected returns of stocks seem to be determined solely by systematic risk of the stocks as precicted by CAPM. In this paper the relationship between transaction volume and expected returns of stocks was investigated. Empirical cross-sectional analysis about the data collected from Stock Market of Korea Exchange shows transaction volume and variability of stock returns play an important role in pricing assets. The well-known variables which were used traditionally to explain the differences of expected returns among stocks such as the size and beta of a stock seems to be unimportant in pricing assets.

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A Test on the Volatility Feedback Hypothesis in the Emerging Stock Market (신흥주식시장에서의 변동성반응가설 검정)

  • Kim, Byoung-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.191-234
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    • 2009
  • This study examined on the volatility feedback hypothesis through the use of threshold GARCH-in-Mean (GJR-GARCH-M) model developed by Glosten, Jaganathan, and Runkle (1993) in the stock markets of 14 emerging countries during the period of January, 1996 to May, 2009. On this study, I found successful evidences which can support the volatility feedback hypothesis through the following three estimation procedures. First, I found relatively strong positive relationship between the expected market risk premiums and their conditional standard deviations from the GARCH-M model in the basis of daily return on each representative stock market index, which is appropriate to investors' risk-averse preferences. Second, I can also identify the significant asymmetric time-varying volatility originated from the investors' differentiated reactions toward the unexpected market shocks by applying the GJR-GARCH-M model and further find the lasting positive risk aversion coefficient estimators. Third, I derived the negative signs of the regression coefficient of unpredicted volatility on the stock market return by re-applying the GJR-GARCH-M model after I controlled the positive effect of predicted volatility through including the conditional standard deviations from the previous GARCH-M model estimation as an independent explanatory variable in the re-applied new GJR-GARCH-M model. With these consecutive results, the volatility feedback effect was successfully tested to be effective also in the various emerging stock markets, although the leverage hypothesis turned out to be insufficient to be applied to another source of explaining the negative relationship between the unexpected volatility and the ex-post stock market return in the emerging countries in general.

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An Analysis of the Relationship between Market Rates and the Profits of Tramp Shipping (부정기선 해운업의 이윤과 금리의 관계 분석)

  • Choi, Young-Jae;Kim, Hyun-Sok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzes the relationship between shipping profit and market return in the tramp trade from January 2000 to October 2014. First, we carry out the causality test and find a causal relationship between the studied variables. Second, the estimates from the Johansen cointegration test show that shipping profit is cointegrated with market return, which implies that a long-run relationship exists among the variables. The empirical results thus imply that shipping firms need diverse risk management strategies.

Do good return policies work across cultures? Effect of lenient return policies on online shopper perceptions in Eastern culture

  • Yang, SuJin;Choi, Yun Jung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.75-97
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    • 2013
  • While good return policies are suggested as one of the critical services for e-commerce, ambivalence between the burden of the cost and shoppers' satisfaction may prevent e-tailers from increasing their level of leniency. Based on the S-O-R model, this study has attempted to develop a grounded theory to explain how lenient return policies shape online shoppers' perceptions and responses, with a focus on cultural influences in the relationship. In order to check the cultural effects of the lenient return policy, thirty two female and eleven male undergraduate students in South Korean shoppers, who are accustomed to strict return policies, participated in the semi-structured interview. A series of open-ended questions were designed to explore consumers' reactions toward four different levels of the lenient return policy: from the strict type in South Korea to the lenient type in the U.S. Using qualitative research methods, this research has defined three types of dimensions of lenient return policy: return possible period, complexity of progress, and other restrictions. While previous researchers did not pay much attention, the last dimension, other restrictions, is shown to be the most significant in influencing online shoppers' perceptions, especially in South Korea. Also, the impacts on online shoppers' perceptions from the three types of sub-dimensions of return policy were somewhat different. Whereas a longer return possible period was considered more favorable, a medium level of complexity and restrictions were considered more desirable. In summary, this result showed that shoppers in Eastern cultures, i.e. South Korean online shoppers, seem favorable to a medium level of lenient return policies, while allowing for taking precautions against possible fraudulent behaviors and setting other restrictions. Therefore, most of retailers in South Korea recommended that e-tailers who adopt the most lenient return policies raise the bar to guard ethical shoppers from fraudulent users. Next, lenient return policies can enhance ease of use, usefulness, affect, and trust while relieving perceived risk, which is connected to intention to purchase, satisfaction, and loyalty. Interestingly, lenient return policies are more likely to change the behavioral responses of online shoppers, such as return and purchase, rather than change their attitudes or beliefs such as image, satisfaction, and loyalty. This tendency can be seen more clearly in the direct influences of return policy on responses. The reaction to lenient return policy is mostly the intention to return or to purchase. This suggests that return policy serves the e-tailers as a powerful tool in increasing online shoppers' purchase intention at the moment of purchase. Therefore, e-tailers who plan to expand their market to eastern countries, including South Korea, have to build a shield of restrictions around their lenient return policy, rather than immediately applying their original liberalized return policy. Also, e-tailers in South Korea need to review their strict and undifferentiated return policies to deal with the unsatisfied reactions of online shoppers toward their normal return policies. Although the present study was confined to the return policies currently being practiced by popular e-tailers, it would be worthwhile to develop effective return policies separately for each country, especially South Korea, keeping the culture of the relevant country in mind.

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The Role of Franchising on the Restaurant Firms' Performance during COVID-19 (코로나-19 팬데믹 상황에서 외식기업의 경영성과와 프랜차이즈의 역할)

  • SUN, Kyung-A;KIM, Seung-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: COVID-19 has negatively influenced the financial performance of restaurant firms. Previous literature suggests that the franchising strategy effectively helps restaurant firms recover from difficult business conditions through various methods for expanding business size and enhancing business efficiency. According to risk-sharing theory, restaurant franchisors may minimize operational risks by sharing the risks with their franchisees. For instance, restaurant franchisors could generate more stable cash flow using franchise fees from their franchisees. However, research on the effect of franchise's risk reduction factor on business performance during pandemic is scarce. Thus, this study aims to examine the positive moderating effect of franchising between COVID-19 and restaurants' financial performance. Research design, data, and methodology: Panel data including financial information and franchising status of restaurant firms were collected for analysis. In order to control for unobserved firm-specific factors, generalized least squared estimation in fixed effects model was conducted. Huber-White robust standard errors were used to deal with heteroscedasticity issues. Results: It was found that COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on the restaurants' financial performance such as ROA (return on assets), ROE (return on equity), and PM (profit margins), which confirms the findings from existing literature. More importantly, results show that the degree of franchising has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between COVID-19 and financial performance of restaurant firms. This suggests that more active engagement in franchising may decrease negative impacts of COVID-19 on the restaurants' financial performance. Conclusions: The study supports existing literature related to risk-sharing theory, by confirming that pandemics, such as COVID-19, negatively affect financial performance of the restaurants. Furthermore, it was found that franchising strategy can help lessen negative impacts of pandemics on the firm performance. These findings can contribute to the franchise and restaurant management literature by suggesting the role of franchising in reducing business risks, thereby positively affecting financial performance. Moreover, this study offers business managers of franchisors and franchisees insights for utilizing franchising in restaurant risk management. Policymakers may also gain information on aiding restaurant firms during global crisis, such as COVID-19.

A Study on the Risk Assessment of Small Reservoirs using Reliability Analysis Methods (신뢰도 분석기법을 이용한 소규모 저수지의 위험도 분석)

  • Kim, Mun-Mo;Park, Chang-Eon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.15-30
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    • 2000
  • This study is to develop the applied method of reliability analysis to present risk - initial water level relationship in the small reservoir. To determine the reliability, the grasping of uncertainty sources is prerequisited and performance function is formulated. Reliability analysis method is a statistical method and the basic procedure of risk evaluation for overtopping of reservoir is as follows. 1. Define the risk criterion and performance function for the overtopping. 2. Determine the uncertainties of all the variables in the performance function. 3. Perform the risk analysis with suitable risk calculation method. Reliability analysis method such as Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method and mean value first order second moment(MVFOSM) method are used to calculate the risk for reservoir. Finally, risk - initial water level relationship is established according to return period and it is useful for reservoir operation and safety assessment.ssment.

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A Study on Oil Price Risk Affecting the Korean Stock Market (한국주식시장에 파급되는 국제유가의 위험에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Ji-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.75-106
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    • 2007
  • In this study, it is analyzed whether oil price plays a major role in the pricing return on Koran stock market and examined why the covariance risk between oil and return on stock is different in each industry. Firstly, this study explores whether the expected rate of return on stock is pricing due to global oil price factors as a function of risk premium by using a two-factor APT. Also, it is examined whether spill-over effects of oil price volatility affect the beta risk to oil price. Considering the asymmetry of oil price volatility, we use the GJR model. As a result, it shows that oil price is an independent pricing factor and oil price volatility transmits to stock return in only electricity and electrical equipment. Secondly, the two step-analyzing process is introduced to find why the covariance between oil price factor and stock return is different in each industry. The first step is to study whether beta risk exists in each industry by using two proxy variables like size and liquidity as control variables. The second step is to grasp the systematic relationship between the difference of liquidity and size and beta to oil price factor by using the panel-data model which can be analyzed efficiently using the cross-sectional data formed with time series. Through the analysis, we can argue that oil price factor is an independent pricing factor in only electricity and electrical equipment having the greatest market capitalization, and know that beta risk to oil price factor is a proxy of size in the other industries. According to the result of panel-data model, it is argued that the beta to oil price factor augments when market capitalization increases and this fact supports the first assertion. In conclusion, the expected rate of return of electricity and electrical equipment works as a function of risk premium to market portfolio and oil price, and the reason to make beta risk power differentiated in each industry attributes to the size.

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