• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk-Informed

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불확실성 분석을 이용한 $^{99m}Tc$ 발생기 사용의 방사선위험도 평가 (Radiological Risk Assessment for $^{99m}Tc$ Generator using Uncertainty Analysis)

  • 장한기;김주연;이재기
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2004
  • 의료 및 산업체에서 중형방사선 선원의 사용증가는 정규 및 사고시 작업자와 일반인에 대해 방사선 노출의 위험을 초래한다. 본 연구에서는 중형 의료용 선원을 사용하는 $^{99m}Tc$ 발생기에 대한 위험도 평가를 수행하였다. 사건수목기법을 활용하여 국내 현실에 적합한 시나리오를 도출하였으며, 정규 및 사고시로 나누어 작업자와 일반인에 대해서 몬테칼로 기법에 의거한 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 아울러 위험도결과에 가장 영향을 미치는 인자를 알아보기 위해 5가지 독립변수에 대한 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 빈도수의 기여로 인해 정규작업에 대한 위험도가 사고시 위험도보다 높게 평가되었다. $^{99m}Tc$ 발생기의 경우 정규작업 시 작업자 $0.6mSvy^{-1}$, 일반인 $0.014mSvy^{-1}$ 이며 사고시 작업자 $3.96mSvy^{-1}$, 일반인 $0.0016mSvy^{-1}$로 평가되었다. 정규작업 보다 사고시의 불확실성 범위가 10배 정도 더 높게 나타났다. 또한 민감도 분석 결과 선원의 강도, 작업거리, 작업시간이 위험도에 가장 영향을 미치는 인자로 나타났다. 이리한 위험도 평간 방법론과 결과는 중대형 선원에 대한 위험도 정보 활용 규제 (Risk-Informed Regulation)에 유용할 것으로 기대한다.

리스크정보를 활용한 비상디젤발전기 허용정지시간 연장시 안전성평가 (Safety Assessment for Emergency Diesel Generator(EDG) Allowed Outage Time(AOT) Extension using Risk-informed)

  • 임혁순;김두현
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.118-122
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    • 2010
  • 원자력발전소의 운전 유연성 증대, 안전성 및 경제성 향상, 정비 부담을 완화하기 위해 비상디젤발전기의 허용정지시간 연장이 요구된다. 확률론적안전성평가(probabilistic safety assessment) 기법으로 현재의 비상디젤발전기의 허용정지 시간을 3일에서 7일, 10일, 14일로 연장시 안전성 영향을 평가하였다. 종합적으로 평가결과, 비상디젤발전기의 허용정지시간 연장시 EDG 점검 또는 정비기간 중 인적실수으로 인한 발전소 불시정지 예방 및 안전성을 향상 시키는 것으로 분석되었다.

Review of the regulatory periodic inspection system from the viewpoint of defense-in-depth in nuclear safety

  • Lim, Jihan;Kim, Hyungjin;Park, Younwon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제50권7호
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    • pp.997-1005
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    • 2018
  • The regulatory periodic safety inspection system is one of the most important methods for confirming the safety of nuclear power plants and the defense in depth in nuclear safety is the most important basic means for accident prevention and mitigation. Recently, a new regulatory technology based on risk-informed and safety performance has been developed and used in advanced countries. However, since the domestic periodic inspection system is being used in the same way over 30 years, it is necessary to know how the inspection contributes to the safety confirmation of the nuclear power plants. In this study, the domestic periodic inspection system currently in use was analyzed from the perspective of defense in depth in nuclear safety. In addition, the analysis results were compared to the U.S. NRC's safety inspection system to obtain consistency and lessons in this study. As a result of analysis, the NRC's safety inspections were distributed almost evenly at the all levels of defense in depth, while in the case of domestic inspection, they were heavily focused on the level 1 of defense in depth. Therefore, it appeared urgent to improve the inspection system to strengthen the other levels of defense in depth in nuclear safety.

The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Financial Conditions of Emerging Economies

  • BAJAJ, Namarta Kumari;AZIZ, Tariq;KUMARI, Sonia;ALENEZI, Marim;MATHKUR, Naif Mansour
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.133-143
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    • 2023
  • The detrimental impacts of financial instability on the world economy during the financial crisis highlighted the requirement to understand the existing financial circumstances. Stability and developments in financial conditions are important for economic prosperity. This study analyses the impact of geopolitical risk on the economic conditions of some specific emerging economies using monthly data from January 1999 to September 2016 by applying a fixed-effects panel data model. The estimation results demonstrated that geopolitical risk has a significant, negative impact on financial conditions. It shows geopolitical risk could be seen as a key factor that contributes towards financial conditions. Further, it implies that negative shocks of high geopolitical risk experienced by emerging economies are one of the primary reasons for the financial conditions' deterioration. The findings provide important insights for governments, policymakers, and investors. For instance, governments and politicians should refrain from expressing or producing tension, economic discomfort, or news that is likely to increase a high geopolitical risk. Maintaining a close eye on geopolitical risk and its sources may also help to stabilize financial conditions and develop a well-functioning financial system. As a result, investors would be better informed about an economy's economic and financial conditions, allowing them to diversify their international portfolios and devise investing strategies during uncertain economic times.

CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE DELAY RISK ASSESSMENT BY USING COMBINED AHP-RII METHODOLOGY FOR AN INTERNATIONAL NPP PROJECT

  • HOSSEN, MUHAMMED MUFAZZAL;KANG, SUNKOO;KIM, JONGHYUN
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제47권3호
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    • pp.362-379
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    • 2015
  • In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

다중 선박에서 효율적인 충돌 회피를 위한 베이지안 충돌 위험도 추정 알고리즘 (Bayesian Collision Risk Estimation Algorithm for Efficient Collision Avoidance against Multiple Traffic Vessels)

  • 송병호;이경효;정민아;이성로
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제36권3B호
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    • pp.248-253
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    • 2011
  • 선박의 충돌회피 알고리즘은 인적 요인에 의한 해난사고를 방지하고, 보다 효과적이고 안전한 운항을 위해 개발되어 왔다. 본 논문에서는 충돌사고의 위험성을 줄이고, 안전운항을 지원하기 위하여, 베이지안 추정 이론을 이용하여 충돌 위험도를 추정하는 알고리즘을 고안한다. 기존의 선박 충돌 회피를 시스템보다 안전한 충돌 회피를 위해서 베이지안 추정 이론을 이용하여 충돌 위험도를 계산하고 일정 시간 이후에 타선들의 위치 및 속도정보와 자선의 위치 및 속도정보를 이용하여 충돌 위험도를 예측함으로써 보다 안전하고 효율적인 충돌 위험도를 결정한다. 본 논문에서 타선박의 항해정보는 AIS 정보를 가정하였고, 기존의 DCPA와 TCPA를 이용한 퍼지 추론 방법보다 효율적으로 충돌 위험도를 추정할 수 있다.

Are Primary Health Care Workers Aware of Cervical Cancer Risk?

  • Can, Huseyin;Erdem, Ozgur;Oztekin, Coskun;Celik, Sercan Bulut;Onde, Mete;Celepkolu, Tahsin;Ongel, Kurtulus
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권16호
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    • pp.6669-6671
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    • 2014
  • Background: We here examined the awareness of female health employees (doctors, nurses, midwives) working in primary health care service about cervical cancer and its risk factors. Additionally attitude and behavior for gynecologic examination and pap smear screening wwere researched. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional, descriptive study con cerned female health employees working at primary health care services in two southern cities of Turkey, over a four month period in 2013. Participants were recently or previously sexually active research was explained and verbal informed consent was obtained face to face. The questionnaire consisted of two parts; socio-demographic characteristics and level of knowledge about cervical cancer and its risk factors. Results: The average age of the participants (midwives 43.7%, n=143; nurses 40.4%, n=132; doctors 6.4%, n=21; emergency medical technicians and others, 9.5%, n=31; total, n=327) was $30.9{\pm}6.41$ years. 64.2% (n=210) were working in Diyarbakir and 35.8% (n=117) in Batman. A large proportion reported low knowledge and inadequate screening practice Conclusions: Health employees should be better informed about the importance of screening for cancers, given their preventive roles for the general population.