• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk ratio

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Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Considering the Saturation Depth Ratio by Rainfall Change (강우변화에 따른 토층 내 침투깊이를 고려한 산사태위험지수 개발)

  • Kwak, Jae Hwan;Kim, Man-Il;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.687-699
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    • 2018
  • Understanding rain infiltration into the ground is an important feature of landslide risk evaluation. In this study, a landslide risk index for the study area is suggested, wherein the result of the landslide risk evaluation, based on the factor of safety (FS), is used. The landslide risk index is a landslide risk prediction index that utilizes the saturated depth ratio of the ground. Based on the landslide risk result for the study area, it was found that the FS was first to decrease. However, it gradually became convergent over the 50-year rainfall intensity study period, a result that is similar to the relationship between the saturated depth ratio and soil thickness. Moreover, saturated depth was also found to be deeper on gentle slopes than steep slopes. As such, the landslide risk index, based on the Inhu-ri study result, is thus suggested. Additionally, the suggested landslide risk index was compared and analyzed against the rainfall intensity of previous landslide experience. Results thus revealed that almost all landslides that occurred were over 0.7, which is the second grade, based on the landslide risk index.

Impact of Multiple Cardiovascular Risk Factors on the Carotid Intima-media Thickness in Young Adults: The Kangwha Study

  • Chang, Hoo-Sun;Kim, Hyeon-Chang;Ahn, Song-Vogue;Hur, Nam-Wook;Suh, Il
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.411-417
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    • 2007
  • Objectives: Although risk factors for coronary artery disease are also associated with increased carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), there is little information available on the asymptomatic, young adult population. We examined the association between multiple cardiovascular risk factors and the common carotid IMT in 280 young Korean adults. Methods: The data used for this study was obtained from 280 subjects (130 men and 150 women) aged 25 years who participated in the Kangwha Study follow-up examination in 2005. We measured cardiovascular risk factors, including anthropometries, blood pressure, blood chemistry, carotid ultrasonography, and reviewed questionnaires on health behaviors. Risk factors were defined as values above the sex-specific 75th percentile of systolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, fasting blood glucose and smoking status. Results: The mean carotid IMT${\pm}$standard deviation observed was $0.683{\pm}0.079mm$ in men and $0.678{\pm}0.067mm$ in women (p=0.567) and the evidence of plaque was not observed in any individuals. Mean carotid IMT increased with an increasing number of risk factors(p for trend <0.001) and carotid IMT values were 0.665 mm, 0.674 mm, 0.686 mm, 0.702 mm, and 0.748 mm for 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 to 5 risk factors, respectively. The odds ratio for having the top quartile carotid IMT in men with 3 or more risk factors versus 0-2 risk factors was 5.09 (95% CI, 2.05-12.64). Conclusions: Current findings indicate the need for prevention and control of cardiovascular risk factors in young adults and more focus on those with multiple cardiovascular risk factors.

Optimal Hedge Strategy Using Future Contract in the Vesting Contract Electricity Market (베스팅계약 전력시장에서 선물 최적헷지전략 연구)

  • 맹근호;송광재;박종근
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.414-419
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    • 2004
  • In TWBP new uncertainty will be increased. Risk management is risen to a important problem. Vesting contract makes market Players trade at fixed price in TWBP early stages. In the case of advanced country, market players manage risk with a future contract. When a risk management method moves from vesting contract to future contract, it may have to use together two contracts for schedule period. In this paper, risk management strategy that use vesting contract and forward contract at the same time is proposed.

Association between Alcohol Drinking and Cardiovascular disease Mortality and All-cause Mortality - Kangwha Cohort Study - (음주와 순환기계질환 사망 및 전체사망과의 관련성)

  • Yi, Sang-Wook;Yoo, Sang-Hyun;Sull, Jae-Woong;Ohrr, Hee-Choul
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.120-126
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    • 2004
  • Objectives : This study sought to examine relationships between alcohol drinking and cardiovascular disease mortality and all-cause mortality. Methods : From March 1985 through December 1999, 2,696 males and 3,595 females aged 55 or over as of 1985 were followed up for their mortality until 31 December 1999. We calculated the mortality risk ratios by level of alcohol consumption. Among the drinker, the level of alcohol consumption was calculated by the frequency of alcohol comsumption and the type of alcohol. Cox proportional hazard model was used to adjust for confounding factors. Results : Among males, compared to abstainer, heavy drinker had significantly higher mortality in all cause(Risk ratio=1.35), cardiovascular disease(Risk ratio=1.52) and cerebrovascular disease(Risk ratio =1.66). Although not significant, moderate drinker had lower ischemic heart disease mortality(Risk ratio =0.38). Among females, there was no statistically significant association between alcohol comsumption and mortality. Conclusion : The results of this study suggest that alcohol drinking has harmful effect on all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality and cerebrovascular disease mortality among males, especially in heavy drinker among males. Minimal evidence on protective effect for cardiovascular disease mortality in low or moderate drinker is observed.

Comparisons of the Falls and Intrinsic Fall Risk Factors according to Gender in the elderly at Ttransitional Periods of Life (생애전환 초기 노인의 성별에 따른 낙상경험 및 내재적 요인 비교)

  • Yim, Eunshil;Kim, Dosuk;Kim, Bohwan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.12
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    • pp.276-290
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    • 2013
  • PURPOSE: This study compared the elderly falls and the intrinsic fall risk factors according to gender. METHODS: This descriptive cross-sectional study was a secondary analysis of the data collected for medical checkups for the Transitional Periods of Life supported from the National Health Insurance. The subjects examined were 255,505 people aged 66 years in Korea between January and December, 2008. RESULTS: The elderly people aged 66 when in the transitional periods of life experienced 10.6% of their first falls. The first falls of women (12.4%) was greater than that of men (8.5%) in the elderly. The risk factors for falls included dysuria with an odds ratio of 6.2 to 6.6, depression with an odds ratio of 1.5 to 1.8, gait disturbance with an odds ratio of 1.3 to 1.5, and blindness with an odds ratio of 1.3 to 1.4 in both elderly women and men. CONCLUSIONS: Effective fall prevention should focus on dysuria because it is a more important predictor of falls, even though many intrinsic fall risk factors can affect falls in elderly people.

Falls in the General Hospital Inpatients: Incidence, Associated Factors (일개 종합병원 입원환자의 낙상 실태 및 관련 요인)

  • Yang, Hwa-Mi;Chun, Byung-Chul
    • Quality Improvement in Health Care
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2009
  • Background : To estimate fall incidence rate and associated factors in inpatients from a general hospital. Method : The data were collected from 104 fall incident reports developed by the patient safety committee in a general hospital in Seoul from 01 January 2007 to 31 December 2008. Information included general characteristics of patients, factors related to fall, types, places, circumstances and outcomes of fall. Result : The incidence rate of fall, which was 4.4 per 1,000 total discharged patients and 0.5 per 1,000 patient-days, was much lower than that of several hospitals in the United States. The difference may reflect the different incidence reporting system of each hospital. Fall-prone patients were, in general, $$\geq_-$$65 years of age, had an alert mental status, were ambulatory with some assistance, and were dependent on and ambulatory device. High incidence of falls was associated with patients with circulatory disease. The majority of fall events usually occurred in bed or at the bedside in the patient's room, and occurred more often during the night than during the day or evening. Risk factors of fall were use of drugs (antihypertensive or neuropsychiatric drugs) and environmental factors (e.g., overly high bed height, surrounding objects, inadequate fitness shoes and slippery floor). Physical injury occurred in 43.3% of fall events, which typically required diagnosis of injury and treatment such as suturing. Risk factors for repeated falls were use of a neuropsychiatric drug (odds ratio=13.9) and gait disturbance (odds ratio=91.2). Risk factors for fall-related injury were alert mental status (odds ratio=3.3 times more likely to fall than those who were drowsy or in a stupor) and general weakness(odds ratio=3.3 times more likely to fall than those who were not generally weak). Conclusion : Medical and nursing staff should be aware of the fall risk factors of hospitalized patients and should intensively pursue preventative strategies. Development of fall prevention education based on these results is recommended.

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Impact of Indebtedness on the Risk of Domestic Violence (가계부채가 부부폭력의 위험에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Jung Min;Park, Ho Jun;Oh, Ukchan
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.33-57
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    • 2017
  • As there is a growing concern about the steady increase in the consumer debt and its potential consequences on individuals and families, this study examined the association between personal debt and the risk of domestic violence, which in this study is referred to as violence between man and woman who have a spousal relationship. We used the data from the Korea Welfare Panel Study collected from 2009 to 2016. We applied a generalized estimating equation approach for the analysis of panel data. The results show that the higher the ratio of personal debt to disposable income and the ratio of debt payment to disposal income is, the greater the risk of domestic violence. While the debt to income ratio played a role regarding was related to a heightened risk of domestic violence among the poor group, the debt payment to income ratio was associated with a higher risk of domestic violence among the non-poor group. Implications of the study were discussed.

Capital Buffer and Determinant Factors of Conventional Banks in Indonesia

  • ANISA, Anisa;SUTRISNO, Sutrisno
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.377-384
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    • 2020
  • Banking is very regulated by the government and even has to follow regulations issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which regulates banking in the world. According to Basel III, banks must provide capital reserves called capital buffers. The purpose of this study is to examine the factors that determine capital buffer. Factors thought to affect the capital buffer studied consisted of profitability (ROA), credit risk (NPL), liquidity risk (LDR), capital adequacy in the previous period (CARt-1), management risk (NIM), and ratio of operating risk (OER). The population in this study is conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, as many as 42 banks, with a sample of 40 banks taken by purposive sampling method with an observation period of four years with quarterly data (2016-2019). To test the hypotheses, regression panel data is used. After being tested, it turns out that the fixed effect model is better than the common effect and random effect. The results of the study with fixed effect models show that ROA, NPL, and OER significantly and negatively affect capital buffer. CARt-1 has a positive and significant effect on capital buffer, while LDR and NIM do not affect capital buffer.

Climate Change-Induced Physical Risks' Impact on Korean Commercial Banks and Property Insurance Companies in the Long Run (기후변화의 위험이 시중은행과 손해보험에 장기적으로 미치는 영향)

  • Seiwan Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.107-121
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    • 2024
  • In this study, we empirically analyzed the impact of physical risks due to climate change on the soundness and operational performance of the financial industry by combining economics and climatology. Particularly, unlike previous studies, we employed the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) method to extract trends of climate-related risk variables and economic-financial variables, conducting a two-stage empirical analysis. In the first stage estimation, we found that the delinquency rate and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) ratio of commercial banks have significant negative effects on the damage caused by natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, average temperature, and number of typhoons. On the other hand, for insurance companies, the damage from natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, frequency of heavy snowfall, and annual average temperature have significant negative effects on return on assets (ROA) and the risk-based capital ratio (RBC). In the second stage estimation, based on the first stage results, we predicted the soundness and operational performance indicators of commercial banks and insurance companies until 2035. According to the forecast results, the delinquency rate of commercial banks is expected to increase steadily until 2035 under assumption that recent years' trend continues until 2035. It indicates that banks' managerial risk can be seriously worsened from climate change. Also the BIS ratio is expected to decrease which also indicates weakening safety buffer against climate risks over time. Additionally, the ROA of insurance companies is expected to decrease, followed by an increase in the RBC, and then a subsequent decrease.

Probabilistic earthquake risk consideration of existing precast industrial buildings through loss curves

  • Ali Yesilyurt;Seyhan O. Akcan;Oguzhan Cetindemir;A. Can Zulfikar
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.565-576
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    • 2024
  • In this study, the earthquake risk assessment of single-story RC precast buildings in Turkey was carried out using loss curves. In this regard, Kocaeli, a seismically active city in the Marmara region, and this building class, which is preferred intensively, were considered. Quality and period parameters were defined based on structural and geometric properties. Depending on these parameters, nine main sub-classes were defined to represent the building stock in the region. First, considering the mean fragility curves and four different central damage ratio models, vulnerability curves for each sub-class were computed as a function of spectral acceleration. Then, probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were performed for stiff and soft soil conditions for different earthquake probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. In the last step, 90 loss curves were derived based on vulnerability and hazard results. Within the scope of the study, the comparative parametric evaluations for three different earthquake intensity levels showed that the structural damage ratio values for nine sub-classes changed significantly. In addition, the quality parameter was found to be more effective on a structure's damage state than the period parameter. It is evident that since loss curves allow direct loss ratio calculation for any hazard level without needing seismic hazard and damage analysis, they are considered essential tools in rapid earthquake risk estimation and mitigation initiatives.