• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk quantification

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Physical Activity and its Relation to Cancer Risk: Updating the Evidence

  • Kruk, Joanna;Czerniak, Urszula
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권7호
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    • pp.3993-4003
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    • 2013
  • Scientific evidence for the primary prevention of cancer caused by physical activity of regular moderate-intensity or greater is rapidly accumulating in this field. About 300 epidemiologic studies on the association between physical activity and cancer risk have been conducted worldwide. The objectives of this paper were three-fold: (i) to describe briefly the components of physical activity and its quantification; (ii) to summarize the most important conclusions available from comprehensive reports, and reviews of the epidemiologic individual and intervention studies on a role physical activity in cancer prevention; (iii) to present proposed biological mechanisms accounting for effects of activity on cancer risk. The evidence of causal linked physical activity and cancer risk is found to be strong for colon cancer - convincing; weaker for postmenopausal breast and endometrium cancers - probable; and limited suggestive for premenopausal breast, lung, prostate, ovary, gastric and pancreatic cancers. The average risk reductions were reported to be 20-30%. The protective effects of physical activity on cancer risk are hypothesized to be through multiple interrelated pathways: decrease in adiposity, decrease in sexual and metabolic hormones, changes in biomarkers and insulin resistance, improvement of immune function, and reduction of inflammation. As there are several gaps in the literature for associations between activity and cancer risk, additional studies are needed. Future research should include studies dealing with limitations in precise estimates of physical activity and of a lack of consensus on what defines sedentary behavior of individuals and those linked with the proposed biomarkers to cancer risk and controlled exercise intervention trials.

리스크 관리 표준화를 위한 건설실패지수 정량화 시스템 설계 (Design of Construction Failure Index Quantification System for Risk Management Standardization)

  • 김웅보;박석천;김성철
    • 한국정보처리학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보처리학회 2015년도 춘계학술발표대회
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    • pp.518-521
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    • 2015
  • 최근 건설 프로젝트의 대형화 및 다양한 신공법들의 도입으로 불확실한 위험도 요인들이 점점 증가함으로써 일련의 시스템적 절차에 따른 리스크 관리(Risk Management) 체계를 수립하여 활용하고 있다. 하지만 국내 시공사와 발주사들은 과거 자신의 경험과 직관에 의존하여 리스크를 다루고 있을 뿐 공사와 관련된 요인을 체계적으로 분류하고 수치화하여 관리하는 곳은 거의 찾아 볼 수가 없는 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 건설 리스크 관리수준 향상을 위해 건설실패지수를 활용한 기업단위의 정량화 시스템을 설계하고, 이를 표준화하기 위한 정부 연계 시스템 구성에 대해 연구하였다.

FIRE PROPAGATION EQUATION FOR THE EXPLICIT IDENTIFICATION OF FIRE SCENARIOS IN A FIRE PSA

  • Lim, Ho-Gon;Han, Sang-Hoon;Moon, Joo-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제43권3호
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    • pp.271-278
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    • 2011
  • When performing fire PSA in a nuclear power plant, an event mapping method, using an internal event PSA model, is widely used to reduce the resources used by fire PSA model development. Feasible initiating events and component failure events due to fire are identified to transform the fault tree (FT) for an internal event PSA into one for a fire PSA using the event mapping method. A surrogate event or damage term method is used to condition the FT of the internal PSA. The surrogate event or the damage term plays the role of flagging whether the system/component in a fire compartment is damaged or not, depending on the fire being initiated from a specified compartment. These methods usually require explicit states of all compartments to be modeled in a fire area. Fire event scenarios, when using explicit identification, such as surrogate or damage terms, have two problems: (1) there is no consideration of multiple fire propagation beyond a single propagation to an adjacent compartment, and (2) there is no consideration of simultaneous fire propagations in which an initiating fire event is propagated to multiple paths simultaneously. The present paper suggests a fire propagation equation to identify all possible fire event scenarios for an explicitly treated fire event scenario in the fire PSA. Also, a method for separating fire events was developed to make all fire events a set of mutually exclusive events, which can facilitate arithmetic summation in fire risk quantification. A simple example is given to confirm the applicability of the present method for a $2{\times}3$ rectangular fire area. Also, a feasible asymptotic approach is discussed to reduce the computational burden for fire risk quantification.

Feasibility of the Threshold-Based Quantification of Myocardial Fibrosis on Cardiac CT as a Prognostic Marker in Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

  • Na Young Kim;Dong Jin Im;Yoo Jin Hong;Byoung Wook Choi;Seok-Min Kang;Jong-Chan Youn;Hye-Jeong Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제25권6호
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    • pp.540-549
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    • 2024
  • Objective: This study investigated the feasibility and prognostic relevance of threshold-based quantification of myocardial delayed enhancement (MDE) on CT in patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM). Materials and Methods: Forty-three patients with NIDCM (59.3 ± 17.1 years; 21 male) were included in the study and underwent cardiac CT and MRI. MDE was quantified manually and with a threshold-based quantification method using cutoffs of 2, 3, and 4 standard deviations (SDs) on three sets of CT images (100 kVp, 120 kVp, and 70 keV). Interobserver agreement in MDE quantification was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Agreement between CT and MRI was evaluated using the Bland-Altman method and the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). Patients were followed up for the subsequent occurrence of the primary composite outcome, including cardiac death, heart transplantation, heart failure hospitalization, or appropriate use of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate event-free survival according to MDE levels. Results: Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) was observed in 29 patients (67%, 29/43), and the mean LGE found with the 5-SD threshold was 4.1% ± 3.6%. The 4-SD threshold on 70-keV CT showed excellent interobserver agreement (ICC = 0.810) and the highest concordance with MRI (CCC = 0.803). This method also yielded the smallest bias with the narrowest range of 95% limits of agreement compared to MRI (bias, -0.119%; 95% limits of agreement, -4.216% to 3.978%). During a median follow-up of 1625 days (interquartile range, 712-1430 days), 10 patients (23%, 10/43) experienced the primary composite outcome. Event-free survival significantly differed between risk subgroups divided by the optimal MDE cutoff of 4.3% (log-rank P = 0.005). Conclusion: The 4-SD threshold on 70-keV monochromatic CT yielded results comparable to those of MRI for quantifying MDE as a marker of myocardial fibrosis, which showed prognostic value in patients with NIDCM.

A quantitative assessment method of network information security vulnerability detection risk based on the meta feature system of network security data

  • Lin, Weiwei;Yang, Chaofan;Zhang, Zeqing;Xue, Xingsi;Haga, Reiko
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제15권12호
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    • pp.4531-4544
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    • 2021
  • Because the traditional network information security vulnerability risk assessment method does not set the weight, it is easy for security personnel to fail to evaluate the value of information security vulnerability risk according to the calculation value of network centrality, resulting in poor evaluation effect. Therefore, based on the network security data element feature system, this study designed a quantitative assessment method of network information security vulnerability detection risk under single transmission state. In the case of single transmission state, the multi-dimensional analysis of network information security vulnerability is carried out by using the analysis model. On this basis, the weight is set, and the intrinsic attribute value of information security vulnerability is quantified by using the qualitative method. In order to comprehensively evaluate information security vulnerability, the efficacy coefficient method is used to transform information security vulnerability associated risk, and the information security vulnerability risk value is obtained, so as to realize the quantitative evaluation of network information security vulnerability detection under single transmission state. The calculated values of network centrality of the traditional method and the proposed method are tested respectively, and the evaluation of the two methods is evaluated according to the calculated results. The experimental results show that the proposed method can be used to calculate the network centrality value in the complex information security vulnerability space network, and the output evaluation result has a high signal-to-noise ratio, and the evaluation effect is obviously better than the traditional method.

국내 원자력발전소의 화재사건 확률론적안전성평가에서 다중오동작 분석 연구 (A Study on the Multiple Spurious Operation Analysis in Fire Events Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Domestic Nuclear Power Plant)

  • 강대일;정용훈;최선영;황미정
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we conducted a pilot study on the multiple spurious operations (MSO) analysis in the fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) to identify the degree of influence of the operator actions used in the MSO mitigation strategies. The MSO scenario of the domestic reference NPP selected for this study is refueling water tank (RWT) drain down event. It could be caused by spurious operations of the containment spray system (CSS) of the reference NPP. The RWT drain down event can be stopped by the main control room (MCR) operator actions for stopping the operation of CSS pump or closing the CSS motor operated valve if the containment spray actuation signal (CSAS) is spuriously actuated. Outside the MCR, it can be stopped by operator actions for closing the CSS manual valves or motor operated valve or stopping the operation of CSS pump. The quantification result of a fire PSA model that takes into account all recovery actions for the RWT drain down event lead to risk reduction by about 95%, compared with quantification result of fire PSA model without considering them. Among the various operator actions, the recovery action for the spurious CSAS operations and the operator action for the manual valve are identified as the most important operator actions. This study quantitatively showed the extent to which the operator actions used as MSO countermeasures have affected the fire PSA quantification results. In addition, we can see the rank of importance among the operator recovery actions in quantitative terms.

ShareSafe: An Improved Version of SecGraph

  • Tang, Kaiyu;Han, Meng;Gu, Qinchen;Zhou, Anni;Beyah, Raheem;Ji, Shouling
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제13권11호
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    • pp.5731-5754
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we redesign, implement, and evaluate ShareSafe (Based on SecGraph), an open-source secure graph data sharing/publishing platform. Within ShareSafe, we propose De-anonymization Quantification Module and Recommendation Module. Besides, we model the attackers' background knowledge and evaluate the relation between graph data privacy and the structure of the graph. To the best of our knowledge, ShareSafe is the first platform that enables users to perform data perturbation, utility evaluation, De-A evaluation, and Privacy Quantification. Leveraging ShareSafe, we conduct a more comprehensive and advanced utility and privacy evaluation. The results demonstrate that (1) The risk of privacy leakage of anonymized graph increases with the attackers' background knowledge. (2) For a successful de-anonymization attack, the seed mapping, even relatively small, plays a much more important role than the auxiliary graph. (3) The structure of graph has a fundamental and significant effect on the utility and privacy of the graph. (4) There is no optimal anonymization/de-anonymization algorithm. For different environment, the performance of each algorithm varies from each other.

Uncertainty Minimization in Quantitative Electron Spin Resonance Measurement: Considerations on Sampling Geometry and Signal Processing

  • Park, Sangeon;Shim, Jeong Hyun;Kim, Kiwoong;Jeong, Keunhong;Song, Nam Woong
    • 한국자기공명학회논문지
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.53-58
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    • 2020
  • Free radicals including reactive oxygen species (ROS) are important chemicals in the research area of biology, pharmaceutical, medical, and environmental science as well as human health risk assessment as they are highly involved in diverse metabolism and toxicity mechanisms through chemical reactions with various components of living bodies. Electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy is a powerful tool for detecting and quantifying those radicals in biological environments. In this work we observed the ESR signal of 2,2,6,6-Tetra-methyl piperidine 1-oxyl (TEMPO) in aqueous solution at various concentrations to estimate the uncertainty factors arising from the experimental conditions and signal treatment methods. As the sample position highly influences the signal intensity, dual ESR tube geometry (consists of a detachable sample tube and a position fixed external tube) was adopted. This type of measurement geometry allowed to get the relative uncertainty of signal intensity lower than 1% when triple measurements are averaged. Linear dependence of signal intensity on the TEMPO concentration, which is required for the quantification of unknown sample, could be obtained over a concentration range of ~103 by optimizing the signal treatment method depending on the concentration range.

Novel Approaches to Monitoring and Remediation of Veterinary Antibiotics in Soil and Water: A Review

  • Awad, Yasser M.;Lee, Sang-Soo;Kim, Sung-Chul;Yang, Jae-E.;Ok, Yong-Sik
    • 한국환경농학회지
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.315-327
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    • 2010
  • A vast increase of antibiotics usage in concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) over the last few decades has led to an environmental risk due to the presence of antibiotic residuals in different environmental compartments. Especially in Korea, the use of antibiotics in CAFOs is much greater than in other developed countries. One of the primary adverse impacts of antibiotic residuals in the environment is that they readily produce antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB), which exert detrimental effects on the ecosystem as well as human health. In this article, the impacts of veterinary antibiotic residuals with regard to their quantification and management, and desirable remediation technologies have been widely reviewed. This review article concluded that the continuous monitoring should be required to ensure the safety of antibiotic residuals in the surrounding environments. Furthermore, the management guidelines of antibiotic residuals need to be developed in the future.

Analytical Quality by Design Methodology Approach for Simultaneous Quantitation of Paeoniflorin and Decursin in Herbal Medicine by RP-HPLC Analysis

  • Kim, Min Kyoung;Park, Geonha;Hong, Seon-Pyo;Jang, Young Pyo
    • Natural Product Sciences
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.264-273
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    • 2021
  • Simultaneous quantification of multiple marker compounds in herbal medicine by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis is still a challenge due to the complexity in various parameters to be considered and co-existing multi-components. As a case study, a reliable HPLC method for simultaneous quantification of paeoniflorin from Paeoniae Radix and decursin from Angelicae Gigantis Radix in various commercial herbal medicine was developed based on analytical quality by design (AQbD) strategy. As a first step, risk assessment was performed to select the critical method parameters (CMPs) which were decided as organic mobile phase ratio and column oven temperature. In order to evaluate the effect of the CMPs on critical method attributes (CMAs) of peak resolution and tailing, central composite design (CCD) was employed. The final chromatographic conditions were optimized as follows: column- C18, 4.6 × 250 mm, 5 ㎛ particle size; mobile phase- A: acetonitrile, B: 0.1% acetic acid water; detection wavelength- 235 nm for paeoniflorin, 325 nm for decursin; column oven temperature- 25℃; flow rate- 1.0 mL/min; gradient mobile phase system as Time (min) : % A, 0:14, 25:14, 30:50, 60:50, 61:100, 65:100, 66:14, 75:14. The method was successfully validated according to the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) guidelines and piloted for ten commercial herbal medicines.