• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권8호
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• pp.3097-3100
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• 2015

Projections of cancer cases are particularly useful in developing countries to plan and prioritize both diagnostic and treatment facilities. In the prediction of cancer cases for the future period say after 5 years or after 10 years, it is imperative to use the knowledge of past time trends in incidence rates as well as in population at risk. In most of the recently published studies the duration for which the time trend was assessed was more than 10 years while in few studies the duration was between 5-7 years. This raises the question as to what is the optimum time period which should be used for assessment of time trends and projections. Thus, the present paper explores the suitability of different time periods to predict the future rates so that the valid projections of cancer burden can be done for India. The cancer incidence data of selected cancer sites of Bangalore, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai PBCR for the period of 1991-2009 was utilized. The three time periods were selected namely 1991-2005; 1996-2005, 1999-2005 to assess the time trends and projections. For the five selected sites, each for males and females and for each registry, the time trend was assessed and the linear regression equation was obtained to give prediction for the years 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. These predictions were compared with actual incidence data. The time period giving the least error in prediction was adjudged as the best. The result of the current analysis suggested that for projections of cancer cases, the 10 years duration data are most appropriate as compared to 7 year or 15 year incidence data.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제20권5호
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• pp.747-755
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• 2011

This study was investigated the relationship between the temperature and the mortality of aged (${\geq}65$ yr) during the winter seasons from 1992 to 2007 in Seoul, Korea by utilizing climate data and death records. The study also estimated the future risks by employing the projections of the population in Seoul, Korea and climate change scenario of Korea from 2011 to 2030. The limitation of this study was the impossibility in the prediction of daily mortality counts. Therefore, daily death numbers could be predicted based on the future population projection for Korea and the death records of 2005. The result indicated that risks increased by 0.27%, 0.52%, 0.32% and 0.41% in association with the $1^{\circ}C$ decrease in daily minimum temperature from the mortality counts of total, respiratory, cardiovascular, and cardiorespiratory in the past date while 0.31%, 0.42%, 0.59% and 0.66% in the future. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is concluded that the risk in the future will be higher than the past date although there is an uncertainty in estimating death counts in the future.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct a drought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in South Korea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contribute to water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.643-661
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• 2015

사학연금은 사립학교 교직원이 의무 가입하는 연금으로, 가입자들이 퇴직, 사망 등으로 경제적 위험에 처한 경우 연금을 수급하여 안정을 보장하기 위한 사회보장제도이다. 따라서 사학연금이 공적연금의 기능을 위해서는 기금의 안정성 및 지속가능성이 확보되어야 하며, 적절한 급여소득을 보장해야 할 것이다. 그러나 가장 대표적 공적연금인 공무원연금은 이미 2001년 재정수지 적자를 기록하였으며, 누적적자폭은 앞으로 더욱 커질 것으로 예상되어 최근 이에 대한 여러 개혁안이 활발히 논의되고 있다. 사학연금 제도는 기본적으로 공무원연금제도를 기초로 하는바, 이러한 국민연금 및 공무원연금 개혁 논의에서 자유롭지 못하다. 뿐만 아니라 한국의 고령화 및 인구구조 추세로 볼 때, 현행제도 하에서는 사학연금 기금 역시 향후 30년 내 기금 고갈이 예상되는 바, 현재의 사학연금 제도가 개선될 필요가 있음을 시사한다. 본 연구는 기존의 사학연금 제도의 문제점을 짚어보고, 이를 개선하기 위한 추계방법 및 개정방안을 제안한다. 이를 위해 사학연금의 장기재정추계를 통한 기금고갈시점 및 재정적자액의 규모를 예측하고, 현재 및 미래의 인구구조를 반영한 수급부담 구조를 비교 분석함으로써, 사학연금의 안정성과 적정성을 유지하기 위한 연금개혁 방안을 논의하고자 한다.

• 한국직업건강간호학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.177-185
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• 1998

The purposes of this study were to investigate the effects of farming in greenhouses with respect to subjective fatigue symptoms among farmers and the degree of symptoms. The study compared 176 green-house farmers with 216 open field farmers using a subjective fatigue symptoms rating scale developed by the Industrial Research Institute of Fatigue, Japanese Association for industrial Hygiene. 1. With respect to complaint rates of the subjective fatigue symptoms, the results indicated that greenhouse farmers have, in order of severity, high degrees of low back pain, difficulty in collecting thoughts, and apt to forget. 2. With respect to cumulative scores of fatigue symptoms, the results indicated that both groups of farmers exhibited a lack of attentiveness and a high degree of dullness and sleepiness(category I), body projection of fatigue(category II), and difficulty in concentration(category III). 3. With respect to general characteristics, it was found that the degrees of subjective fatigue symptoms were found to be higher among females, people with lower educational levels, and the elderly, regardless of the group. 4. With respect to work related factors, farmers with more years of experiences were found to have higher degrees of subjective fatigue symptoms, except for open field farmers with less than nine years experience. Both groups of farmers were found to have high degrees of subjective fatigue symptoms when working less than eight hours a day and less than six months a year. 5. With respect to health habits, for people who get less than eight hours of sleep per day exhibited higher fatigue scores than people who get more than eight hours. People who do not smoke and drink also exhibited higher fatigue scores than people who smoke and drink. 6. The results of multiple regression showed that the risk factors related to the subjective fatigue symptoms of farmers in the greenhouse group were ages, levels of education, sex and for the comparison group, were sex. years of farming, and hours of sleep. The R-square were 12.5% in the greenhouse group and 12.1% in the comparison son group. The differences between the greenhouse and open field farmers in the degrees of fatigue symptoms were found not to be statistically significant even if the working conditions of the greenhouse farmers were poor. This may be attributed to non-work related factors, i.e., social, economical, and psychological factors among greenhouse farmers.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.62-72
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• 2017

농경지에서의 증발산량 예측은 농업 분야에서의 기후변화 영향 평가 및 적응 계획 수립에 도움을 줄 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 격자형 국가 표준 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 이용해 잠재 증발산량 (PET)과 가뭄지수 (DI) 전자 기후도의 생산 및 분석을 수행하였다. 특히, 격자형 기상 자료의 처리를 지원하는 도구인 readGrADSWrapper를 기반으로 격자형 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 통계 분석 도구인 R에서 활용하는 기술에 중점을 두었다. FAO-56 공식을 R 스크립트에 구현하여 현재와 미래 조건에서 벼 재배기간 동안의 PET를 계산하였다. 또한, 이를 활용하여 벼 재배에 따른 증발산량 ($PET_{rice}$)과 DI 자료를 생산하고 시공간적 분석을 수행하기 위한 R 스크립트를 구현하였다. 한반도에서 PET의 시공간적 변화 양상은 현재와 미래 조건에서 지역에 따라 차이를 보였다. 전반적으로 한반도에서는 PET와 $PET_{rice}$가 21세기 후반으로 갈수록 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 예측 결과들은 지역과 시기에 따라 증발산량 증가에 대응하기 위한 수자원 관리가 필요하다는 것을 암시하였다. 예를 들어, 현재 조건에서 습윤 지역으로 분류되던 충청남도 지역이 21세기 중반 이후에는 아습윤 지역으로 바뀔 것으로 전망되었다. 이러한 결과들은 PET와 DI 등 수자원과 관련된 변수 값들의 시공간적인 계산과 분석을 통해 미래 기후조건에서 작물 생산성을 증진시키기 위한 적응 대책 수립을 지원할 수 있을 것이다. 또한, readGrADSWrapper와 같은 격자형 기상 자료의 처리도구의 활용을 통해 보다 다양한 응용기후 변수에 대한 전자기후도 생산 및 분석을 원활히 수행할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국학교보건학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.9-21
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• 2003

The present study was designed to evaluate the factors influential on stress and subjective fatigue symptoms based on school life environments and daily life styles among high school students. The self-administered questionnaires were delivered to 2,381 high school students of both sexes in Taejon Metropolitan city during the period from Mar. 1st to Jun. 30th, 2000. The analysis of study results revealed the following findings: 1. According to the magnitude of stress, the normal subjects were 3.1%, the groups with potential stress were 64.7%, and the groups at high risk for stress were 32.2%. Higher level of stress existed in the female than the male students, and in the third grader than the 1st and 2nd graders. According to the classification of typical constitutional symptoms of fatigue, category III (group with bodily projection of fatigue) was the most frequent and it was followed by category II (group with difficulty in concentration) and category I (group with dullness and sleepiness) in a decreasing order of frequency, which showed that the predominant pattern of fatigue arose from the body parts. 2. With regard to the school life characteristics and stress scores, the higher scores of stress were shown in the groups with the lower grades, with worse friend's relation and with the lower satisfaction with the school life. The scores for the subjective fatigue symptoms were higher in the male, in the low graders, in the better friend's relation, and in the satisfactory group than the respective counterparts. 3. Concerning home life characteristics, the higher scores of stress were associated with the students characterized by the recognized poor economic conditions, lower interests of parents, lack of satisfaction with the home life, the poor subjective health status. On the other hand, the scores for the subjective fatigue symptoms were higher in the student groups with good economic conditions, higher interests of parents, presence of satisfaction with the home life, and good subjective health status. 4. Concerning daily life styles, the higher scores of stress were in the students who had inappropriate sleep hours, skipped breakfasts, daily consumption of intermeal snacks, lack of exercise, daily smoking, normal indices of obesity, and lower indices of health habit. Conversely, the scores of subjective fatigue symptoms were higher in the groups who had daily breakfasts, no intermeal snacks, daily exercise, no smoking than their counterparts. 5. The factors exerting influence upon the stress included the satisfaction with school life, friend's relation, satisfaction with the home life, exercise, school grades, interests of parents, school year, sex, scores of health habit, degree of obesity, economic conditions of home. Those influencing on the degree os stress included stress, intermeal snacks, smoking, friend's relation and satisfaction with the home life.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제47권12호
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• pp.1145-1154
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• 2014

최근, 기상레이더는 돌발적 기상재해들을 예방하고, 기상관측의 공익을 위해 널리 이용되고 있으며 이에 따라 사용자 관점의 레이더 표출 시스템의 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 본 논문은 레이더 관측 자료들을 멀티미디어 콘텐츠로서 재생산하는 방법과 생성된 자료를 이용해 매쉬업 서비스에 적용하는 방법을 제안하였다. 이와 함께 주요 기상현상이 발생중인 지역의 정확한 위치를 추적하기 위한 정밀 GIS 정합기술을 제안하였다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 방법을 통해 기상 레이더로부터 관측된 다양한 레이더 변수들을 재가공함으로써 2차원의 영상 및 벡터 그래픽 자료, 또는 3차원 볼륨 자료 등을 생성할 수 있다. 생성된 멀티미디어 형태의 레이더 자료들은 다양한 래스터 또는 벡터정밀 GIS 맵과 정합된다. 다양한 강수 시나리오에 대한 실험 결과, 제안한 방법에 의한 표출 시스템은 사용자로 하여금 정확한 레이더 차폐영역 분석, 강수이동경로 파악, 강수량 추정에 따른 홍수위험도 분석 등을 쉽고 직관적으로 이해시킬 수 있음을 확인하였다. 제안하는 정밀한 GIS 정합을 통해 재난 관리자가 레이더 관측자료를 명확히 해석하고 이를 통해 보다 효과적인 기상재해 예보가 가능할 것으로 기대한다.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.43-56
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• 1994

Although the officially confirmed incidence of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome(AIDS) has remained low thus far in Korea, the progression of the pandemic has been rapid, concerned about an eventual increase in transmission. Until a vaccine or cure is found, public information and education remain an important weapon against AIDS. For the year 2000, the current WHO projection is that there will be a cumulative total of 40 million HIV infections in man, woman and children, of which more than 90％ will be in the developing countries. The incerased mortality among adults and children has raised concerns that AIDS may become so devastaing as to reverse positive population growth rates and wipe out entire population. In order to plan for the rising incidence of patient with AIDS, an assessment of AIDS-related cognition and behavior, attitude of the recognized high-risk groups is necessary. Considering that undergraduates have sexuality active and more oriented toward sexual concerns than other ages. Adolescents today are more sexually involved than in the past: The media, including films, music, and television, reinforce sexual concerns by preseating images of highly sexual adolescents. Incidence of both petting and sexual intercourse in higher and occurs at earlier ages, they are important reservoir of AIDS infection. Hence, it has become important to emymerats and describe the knowledge, attitude and behavior of them, I want.. This information will eventually guide the direction of change in public policies and education programs to meet the challenges of AIDS. The objective of this study were to identity Knowledge, Attitude, Experience of Sex and AIDS in Korea. The data were collected by survey at Korean Federation for AIDS Affairs, INC. and J university, K junior college. After October in 1993, surveyed with 507 student during their's college days in Seoul. The questionnaire was designed to provide information on sex and AIDS-related knowledge and attitudes and experience. AIDS-related knowledge was measured by using 26 questions on mode of transmission and AIDS-related attitudes were measured by 7 questions, AIDS-related experience was measured by 5 questions. There were the main dependent variables in our study, In conclusion, students during their university day need to develop AIDS-preventive education programs. Clearly, the many AIDS-prevention educational effort need to be guided by well trained health agents. Financial supports from all sectors (i.e., public and private) of our society are required to achieve that end. Further researches on AIDS-related Knowledge and Attitude and behaviors of undergraduates are needed for the development of comprehensive AIDS prevention programs.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• 제54권5호
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• pp.621-629
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• 2016

EU의 REACH 제도 도입에 따라 각종 화학물질에 대한 독성 및 활성 정보 확보를 위해 화학물질의 분자구조 정보를 기반으로 화학물질의 독성 및 활성을 예측하는 정량적구조활성관계(QSAR)에 대한 연구가 최근 활발히 진행되고 있다. QSAR 모델에 사용되는 분자표현자는 매우 다양하기 때문에 화학물질의 물성 및 활성을 잘 표현할 수 있는 주요한 분자표현자를 선택하는 과정은 QSAR 모델 개발에 있어 중요한 부분이다. 본 연구에서는 화학물질의 분자구조 정보를 나타내는 주요 분자표현자의 통계적 선택 방법과 부분최소자승법(Partial least square: PLS) 기반의 새로운 QSAR 모델을 제안하였다. 제안된 QSAR 모델은 130종의 폴리염화바이페닐(Polychlorinated biphenyl: PCB)에 대한 분배계수(log P)와 14종의 PCBs에 대한 반수 치사 농도(Lethal concentration 50%: $LC_{50}$) 예측에 사용되고, 제안된 QSAR 모델 예측 정확도는 기존의 OECD QSAR Toolbox에서 제공하는 QSAR 모델과 비교하였다. 관심 화학물질의 분자표현자와 활성정보 간의 높은 상관관계를 갖는 주요 분자표현자를 선별하기 위해서, 상관계수(r)와 variable importance on projections (VIP)기법을 적용하였으며, 화학물질의 독성 및 활성정보를 예측하기 위해 선별된 분자표현자와 활성정보를 이용해 부분최소자승법(PLS)를 사용하였다. 회귀계수($R^2$)와 prediction residual error sum of square (PRESS)을 이용한 성능평가결과, 제안된 QSAR 모델은 OECD QSAR Toolbox의 QSAR 모델보다 PCBs의 log P와 $LC_{50}$에 대하여 각각 26%, 91% 향상된 예측력을 나타내었다. 본 연구에서 제안된 계산독성학 기반의 QSAR 모델은 화학물질의 독성 및 활성정보에 대한 예측력을 향상시킬 수 있고 이러한 방법은 유독 화학물질의 인체 및 환경 위해성 평가에 기여할 것으로 판단된다.