• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk of Collapse

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Risk-based Profit Prediction Model for International Construction Projects (해외건설공사의 리스크 분석에 기초한 수익성 예측모델에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Heon;Kim, Du-Yon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4D
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    • pp.635-647
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    • 2006
  • Korean construction companies first advanced to the international markets in 1960's and so far have brought more than 4,900 projects which account for 193 billion dollars approximately. With the large increase of national employment and income being followed by the achievement, Korea's construction industry has made an enormous contribution to the improvement of domestic economy for the last 40 years. However, recently the increased risk in international markets as well as the sharpening competition with foreign companies promising in terms of advanced technologies and low labor cost have been driving Korean construction away from the market shares. According to ENR (Engineering News Record, 1994~2003), it is revealed that 15.1% of top 225 global contractors are suffering from loss in international construction markets. This phenomenon is largely due to the highly uncertain characteristics of international projects, which are inherently exposed to various and complicated risky situations. Furthermore, especially for Korean construction companies, it is often the case that the failure in an international construction project cannot be offset by even a sufficient number of successful domestic achievements. Therefore, not only the selective screening among the nominated projects which have strong possibility of collapse but the systematic strategies for controlling potential risk factors are also considered indispensable in international construction portfolio management. The purpose of this study is to first analyze the causal relationships of the profit-influencing variables and the project success, and develop the profitability forecasting model in international construction projects.

The Status of Endangered Plants Distributed in the Middle Eastern Area of Korea and Evaluation of the Risk Factors (우리나라 중동부지역에 분포하는 멸종위기야생식물 현황과 위험요인 평가)

  • Kim, Young-Chul;Chae, Hyun-Hee;Hong, Bo-Ram;Oh, Hyun-Kyung;Lee, Kyeong-Hwa;Lee, Kyu-Song
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.291-307
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    • 2016
  • Evaluation of the extinction risk of endangered plants at international, national as well as at regional levels is essential to the implementation of plans for direct conservation activities. Reports indicate that 34 endangered plants are distributed in the middle eastern area of Korea. For each endangered plant, we investigated the sites, area of extents, population size, and factors that affect population extinction. We assessed risk factors based on 10 evaluation criteria including the results from the investigation and the life traits each endangered plant has. As a result of evaluating the risk factors, these 34 endangered plants are classified into 3 groups: the first category comprises 12 endangered plants that require active and urgent conservation of habitats due to multiple risk factors; the second group has 16 endangered plants that should be able to persist with the removal of a few direct risk factors; the third category has 6 endangered plants that can persist with minimal management due to comparatively large distributed area and numerous individuals. It was found that most major risk factors in the population of endangered plants are caused by disruption of habitats and population extinction due to the increase of human habitation in the concerned areas, development and illegal harvesting. Futhermore, ecological collapse from decreasing habitats and malfunctioning mechanism of extinction and regeneration due to the changes of vegetational environment can be the other causes. From the area of the present investigations, we selected 5 regions according to the number of species and the frequency of appearance and importance of conservation measures. Also, we suggested a conservation strategy according to the regional characteristics. We suggest that the method for evaluating extinction risk of endangered plants includes distributional data and life traits of species. In addition, we underscore the necessity for understanding population dynamics and ecological niche of the each target species.

A Biomechanical Analysis of Various Surgical Procedures for Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head using a Finite Element Method (유한요소법을 이용한 대퇴 골두내 무혈성 괴사증의 다양한 수술적 기법에 대한 생체역학적 분석)

  • Kim, J.S.;Lee, S.J.;Shin, J.W.;Kim, Y.S.;Choi, J.B.;Kim, Y.S.
    • Proceedings of the KOSOMBE Conference
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    • v.1997 no.05
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    • pp.374-378
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    • 1997
  • Operative procedures such as core drilling with and without fibular bone grafting have been recognized as the treatment methods for osteonecrosis of femoral head(ONFH) by delaying or preventing the collapse of the femoral head. In addition, core drilling with cementation using polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) has been proposed recently as another surgical method. However, no definite treatment modality has been found yet while operative procedures remain controversial to many clinicians In this study, a finite element method(FEM) was employed to analyze and compare various surgical procedures of ONFH to provide a biomechanical insight. This study was based upon biomechanical findings which suggest stress concentration within the femoral head may facilitate the progression of the necrosis and eventual collapse. For this purpose, five anatomically relevant hip models were constructed in three dimensions : they were (1) intact(Type I), (2) necrotic(Type II), (3) core drilled only(Type III), (4) core drilled with fibular bone graft(Type IV), and (5) core drilled with cementation(Type V). Physiologically relevant loading were simulated. Resulting stresses were calculated. Our results showed that the volumetric percentage subjected to high stress in the necrotic cancellous region was greatest in the core drilled only model(Type III), followed by the necrotic(Type II), the bone graft (Type IV), and the cemented(Type V) models. Von Mises stresses at the tip of the graft(Type IV) was found to be twice more than those of cemented core(Type V) indicating the likelihood of the implant failure. In addition, stresses within the cemented core(Type V) were more evenly distributed and relatively lower than within the fibular bone graft(Type IV). In conclusion, our biomechanical analyses have demonstrated that the bone graft method(Type IV) and the cementation method(Type V) are both superior to the core decompression method(Type III) by reducing the high stress regions within the necrotic cancellous bone. Also it was found that the core region filled with PMMA(Type V) provides far smoother transfer of physiological load without causing the concentration of malignant stresses which may lead to the failure than with the fibular bone graft(Type IV). Therefore, considering the above results along with the degree of difficulties and risk of infection involved with preparation of the fibular bone graft, the cementation method appears to be a promising surgical treatment for the early stage of osteonecrosis of the femoral head.

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Analysis of Influence for Breach Flow According to Asymmetry of Breach Cross-section (제방붕괴 형상의 비대칭성에 따른 붕괴흐름의 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Sooyoung;Choi, Seo-hye;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.557-565
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    • 2016
  • The risk of collapse in hydraulic structures has become more elevated, due to the increased probability and scale of flooding caused by global warming and the resulting abnormal climatic conditions. When a levee, a typical hydraulic structure, breaks, an enormous breach flow pours into the floodplain and much flood damage then occurs. It is important to accurately calculate the breach discharge in order to predict this damage. In this study, the variation of the breach discharge with the asymmetry in the cross-section of the levee breach was analyzed. Through hydraulic experiments, the cross-section of the breach was analyzed during the collapse using the BASD (Bilateral ASymmetry Degree), which was developed to measure the degree of asymmetry. The relationship of the breach discharge was identified using the BASD. Additionally, the variation of the breach flow measured by the BASD was investigated through a 3-D numerical analysis under the same flow conditions as those in the experiment. It was found that the assumption of a rectangular breach cross-section, which is generally used for the estimation of the inundation area, can cause the breach discharge to be overestimated. According to the BASD, the breach flow is decreased by the interference effect in the breach section of the levee. If the breach flow is calculated while considering the BASD in the numerical analysis of the flooding, it is expected that the predicted inundation area can be estimated accurately.

Deep Learning Based Rescue Requesters Detection Algorithm for Physical Security in Disaster Sites (재난 현장 물리적 보안을 위한 딥러닝 기반 요구조자 탐지 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Da-hyeon;Park, Man-bok;Ahn, Jun-ho
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2022
  • If the inside of a building collapses due to a disaster such as fire, collapse, or natural disaster, the physical security inside the building is likely to become ineffective. Here, physical security is needed to minimize the human casualties and physical damages in the collapsed building. Therefore, this paper proposes an algorithm to minimize the damage in a disaster situation by fusing existing research that detects obstacles and collapsed areas in the building and a deep learning-based object detection algorithm that minimizes human casualties. The existing research uses a single camera to determine whether the corridor environment in which the robot is currently located has collapsed and detects obstacles that interfere with the search and rescue operation. Here, objects inside the collapsed building have irregular shapes due to the debris or collapse of the building, and they are classified and detected as obstacles. We also propose a method to detect rescue requesters-the most important resource in the disaster situation-and minimize human casualties. To this end, we collected open-source disaster images and image data of disaster situations and calculated the accuracy of detecting rescue requesters in disaster situations through various deep learning-based object detection algorithms. In this study, as a result of analyzing the algorithms that detect rescue requesters in disaster situations, we have found that the YOLOv4 algorithm has an accuracy of 0.94, proving that it is most suitable for use in actual disaster situations. This paper will be helpful for performing efficient search and rescue in disaster situations and achieving a high level of physical security, even in collapsed buildings.

GIS-based Subsidence Hazard Map in Urban Area (GIS 기반의 도심지 지반침하지도 작성 사례)

  • Choi, Eun-Kyeong;Kim, Sung-Wook;Cho, Jin-Woo;Lee, Ju-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.33 no.10
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    • pp.5-14
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    • 2017
  • The hazard maps for predicting collapse on natural slopes consist of a combination of topographic, hydrological, and geological factors. Topographic factors are extracted from DEM, including aspect, slope, curvature, and topographic index. Hydrological factors, such as soil drainage, stream-power index, and wetness index are most important factors for slope instability. However, most of the urban areas are located on the plains and it is difficult to apply the hazard map using the topography and hydrological factors. In order to evaluate the risk of subsidence of flat and low slope areas, soil depth and groundwater level data were collected and used as a factor for interpretation. In addition, the reliability of the hazard map was compared with the disaster history of the study area (Gangnam-gu and Yeouido district). In the disaster map of the disaster prevention agency, the urban area was mostly classified as the stable area and did not reflect the collapse history. Soil depth, drainage conditions and groundwater level obtained from boreholes were added as input data of hazard map, and disaster vulnerability increased at the location where the actual subsidence points. In the study area where damage occurred, the moderate and low grades of the vulnerability of previous hazard map were 12% and 88%, respectively. While, the improved map showed 2% high grade, moderate grade 29%, low grade 66% and very low grade 2%. These results were similar to actual damage.

Heavy Snow Vulnerability in South Korea Using PSR and DPSIR Methods (PSR과 DPSIR을 이용한 대한민국 대설 취약성 분석)

  • Keunwoo Lee;Hyeongjoo Lee;Gunhui Chung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2023
  • Recently, the risk of snow disasters has been increasing South Korea. The damages of heavy snow were categorized into direct and indirect. Direct damage is usually the collapse of buildings as houses, greenhouse or barns. Indirect damage is various, for example, traffic congestion, traffic acident, drop damage, and so on. In South Korea, direct damage is severe in rural area, mosty collapse of greenhouse or barns. However, indirect damage such as traffic accident is mostly occurred in urban area. Therefore, the regional characteristics should be considered when vulnerability is evaluated. Therefore, in this study, the PSR and DPSIR method were applied by regional scale in South Korea. The PSR evaluation method is divided into pressure, state, and reaction index. however, the DPSIR evaluation method is divided into Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response index. the DPSIR evaluation method is divided into Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response index. Data corresponding to each indicator were collected, and the weight was calculated using the entropy method to calculate the snowfall vulnerability index by regional scale in South Korea. Calculated heavy snow damage vulnerabilities from the two methods were compared. The calculated vulnerabilities were validated using the recent snow damage in South Korea from 2018 to 2022. Snow vulnerability index calculated using the DPSIR method showed more reliable results. The results of this study could be utilized as an information to prepare the mitigation of heavy snow damage and to establish an efficient snow removal response system.

A Case of Pulmonary Embolism Associated with Hepatocellular Carcinoma (원발성 간암과 동반된 폐동맥 색전증 1예)

  • Lee, Young-Ho;Kown, Oh-Sang;Lee, Su-Eun;Suh, Hong-Suk;Sim, Jae-Jung;Cho, Jae-Yeon;In, Kwang-Ho;Yu, Sae-Hwa;Kang, Kyoung-Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.742-746
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    • 1993
  • Recent literature reveals that pulmonary embolism secondary of pulmonary tumor embolism are dyspnea, hemoptysis, pulmonary hypertension, and circulatory collapse. We experienced a case of pulmonary embolism secondary to hepatocelluar cancer in 53-year-old man. From 2 months before admission, he began to experience cough and mild shortness of breath. Within a few days these symptoms progressed to near total incapacity. Pulmonary embolism was confirmed by angiography and the diagnosis of hepatocellular cancer was estabillished by abdomen CT and $\alpha$-FP(21,000 ng/ml). There was no evidence of intravascular cogulation elsewhere in deep vein of the extremities or risk factors of deep vein thrombosis. Thus we consider that pulmonary embolism in this patients is related to hepatocellular cancer rather than deep vein thrombosis. Therefore we report the first case which hepatocellular cancer initially presented as pulmonary embolism in Korean literature.

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Analysis of Lateral Behavior of PSC Bridge Girders under Wind Load During Construction (시공 중 풍하중에 의한 PSC 교량 거더의 횡방향 거동 해석)

  • Lee, Jong-Han;Kim, Kyung Hwan;Cho, Baiksoon
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.377-385
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    • 2015
  • The span-lengthening of PSC I girder has increased the risk of lateral instability of the girder with the increases in the aspect ratio and self-weight of the girder. Recently, collapses of PSC I girder during construction raise the necessity of evaluating the lateral instability of the girder. Thus, the present study evaluated the lateral behavior and instability of PSC I girders under wind load, regarded as one of the main causes of the roll-over collapse during construction. Lateral instability of the girder is mainly dependent on the length of the girder and the stiffness of the support. The analysis results of this study showed the decrease in the critical wind load and the increase in the critical deformation and angle of the girder, leading to the lateral instability of the girder. Finally, this study proposed analytical equations that can predict the critical amount of wind load and lateral deformation of the girder, which would provide quantitative management values to maintain lateral stability of PSC I girder during construction.

Nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis and fragility curves of tall steel buildings with buckling restrained braces and tuned mass dampers

  • Verki, Amir Masoumi;Preciado, Adolfo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.169-184
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    • 2022
  • The importance of seismicity in developing countries and the strengthening of buildings is a topic of major importance. Therefore, the study of several solutions with the development of new technologies is of great importance to investigate the damage on retrofitted structures by using probabilistic methods. The Federal Emergency Management Agency considers three types of performance levels by considering different scenarios, intensity and duration. The selection and scaling of ground motions mainly depends on the aim of the study. Intensity-based assessments are the most common and compute the response of buildings for a specified seismic intensity. Assessments based on scenarios estimate the response of buildings to different earthquake scenarios. A risk-based assessment is considered as one of the most effective. This research represents a practical method for developing countries where exists many active faults, tall buildings and lack of good implementable approaches. Therefore, to achieve the main goal, two high-rise steel buildings have been modeled and assessed. The contribution of buckling-restrained braces in the elastic design of both buildings is firstly verified. In the nonlinear static range, both buildings presented repairable damage at the central top part and some life safety hinges at the bottom. The nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis was applied by 15 representative/scaled accelerograms to obtain levels of performance and fragility curves. The results shown that by using probabilistic methods, it is possible to estimate the probability of collapse of retrofitted buildings by buckling-restrained braces and tuned mass dampers, which are practical retrofitting options to protect existing structures against earthquakes.