• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk assessment technique

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Development of Risk Evaluation Models for Railway Casualty Accidents (철도사상 사고위험도 평가 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Woo;Kim, Min-Su;Wang, Jong-Bae;Choi, Don-Bum
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1499-1504
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    • 2008
  • This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

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Numerical simulation of turbulent flow around a building complex for development of risk assessment technique for windstorm hazards (강풍피해 위험성 평가를 위한 건물군 주위 유동해석)

  • Choi, Choon-Bum;Yang, Kyung-Soo;Lee, Sung-Su;Ham, Hee-Jung
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05b
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    • pp.2737-2742
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    • 2007
  • Strong wind flow around a building complex was numerically studied by LES. The original motivation of this work stemmed from the efforts to develop a risk assessment technique for windstorm hazards. Lagrangian-averaged scale-invariant dynamic subgrid-scale model was used for turbulence modeling, and a log-law-based wall model was employed on all the solid surfaces including the ground and the surface of buildings to replace the no-slip condition. The shape of buildings was implemented on the Cartesian grid system by an immersed boundary method. Key flow quantities for the risk assessment such as mean and RMS values of pressure on the surface of the selected buildings are presented. In addition, characteristics of the velocity field at some selected locations vital to safety of human beings is also reported.

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A Study on the Risk Assessment Method of Indoor-Impulsive Noise (실내 충격소음 위험 평가 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Sung Hak;Song, Ki Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the operator's safety for the risk assessment method of impulsive noise division. Literature reviews on the basis of the impulsive noise study, the measuring methods and procedures, based on the results of the analysis process presents a risk assessment methods. In this study, analysis of the MIL-STD-1474D, B-duration graph for the peak noise level to cross the line from the measurement results is limited by the risk retracted. It is possible to determine whether there is quick can be determined whether the risk. Measurement positions measured by the microphone is installed on the risk of applying results are so located within the tolerance impulsive noise in the measurement position can interpret subjective safety is ensured. In addition, Proportional Dose technology was the proposed by the Patterson with the risk assessment method was applied to the indoor-impulsive noise. As results of this study, results for the same value of applying the technique of Proportional Dose technology results calculated by MIL-STD-1474D methods allows 1 count once increased in comparison to the result obtained.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Techniques for the Risk Analysis of Construction Projects (건설공사의 위험도분석을 위한 확률적 위험도 평가)

  • 조효남;임종권;박영빈
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, systematic and comprehensive approaches are suggested for the application of quantitative PRA techniques especially for those risk events that cannot be easily evaluated quantitatively In addition, dominant risk events are identified based on their occurrence frequency assessed by both actual survey of construction site conditions and the statistical data related with the probable accidents. Practical FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) models are used for the assessment of the identified risks. When the risk events are lack of statistical data, appropriate Bayesian models incorporating engineering judgement and test results are also introduced in this paper. Moreover, a fuzzy probability technique is used for the quantitative risk assessment of those risk components which are difficult to evaluate quantitatively.

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A Study on Risk Analysis of Manufacturing Process Using the Bow-Tie Method (Bow-Tie기법을 이용한 제조공정의 위험성평가 연구)

  • Tae, Chan Ho;Lee, Heon Seok;Byun, Chul Hyun;Yang, Jae Mo;Park, Chulhwan;Ko, Jae Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.33-38
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    • 2013
  • The chemical industries have used large amounts of chemicals. If an accident occurs, it caused physical and human damage. We intended to investigate risk assessment for the prevention of accidents. The risk assessment by HAZOP technique has been applide to major chemical industries, and that result has been utilized efficiently. In this study, we analyzed Bow-Tie and HAZOP technique, and risk assesment was performed by Bow-Tie on toxic material process. As a result, the risk that can not be found in the risk assessment of the other is derived, and improvements of 14 to remove the dangers derived. Bow-Tie risk assessment is suitable to derive the applicability of risk factors in the field and to establish the improvement measures.

Risk Assessment for Pneumatic Braking of EMU (철도차량 제동장치의 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Sung-Kwun;Kim, Jong-un;Koo, Jeong-Seo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.114-122
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    • 2015
  • FMEA and FTA have been widely applied to the safety studies for railway systems respectively. But it would be more effective to use these two methods at a same time because these are complementary. This article suggests a FMEA-FTA combined analysis technique to evaluate the risk for railway systems. A FMEA-FTA combined risk evaluation model and process are proposed and a case study is dealt with for PBU(Pneumatic Breaking Unit), a major subsystem of a railway vehicle.

UNCERTAINTY IN DAM BREACH FLOOD ROUTING RESULTS FOR DAM SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT

  • Lee, Jong-Seok
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.215-234
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    • 2002
  • Uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results was analyzed in order to provide the basis fer the investigation of their effects on the flood damage assessments and dam safety risk assessments. The Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin Hypercube Sampling technique was used to generate random values for two uncertain input parameters (i.e., dam breach parameters and Manning's n roughness coefficients) of a dam breach flood routing analysis model. The flood routing results without considering the uncertainty in two input parameters were compared with those with considering the uncertainty. This paper showed that dam breach flood routing results heavily depend on the two uncertain input parameters. This study indicated that the flood damage assessments in the downstream areas can be critical if uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results are considered in a reasonable manner.

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Improvement of Post-earthquake Risk Assesment System for Damaged Buildings by Case Study on '11.15 Earthquake' (11.15 지진 사례를 통한 지진피해 시설물 위험도 평가 체계 개선)

  • Kang, Hyeong Gu;Yun, Nu-Ri;Kim, David;Lee, Jung Han;Kim, Hye Won;Oh, Keum Ho
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.185-191
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    • 2018
  • Post-earthquake risk assessment technique in Korea is developed in 2013 by National Disaster Management Research Institute, at the same time, related manual and standard regulation is distributed to every local government by National Emergency Management Agency. The objectives of this research are to investigate and evaluate the post-earthquake risk assessment of 9.12 Earthquake (M5.8, Gyeongju City, 2016) and 11.15 Earthquake (M5.4, Pohang City, 2017). To suggest and improve the assessment process of post-earthquake risk, first post-earthquake risk assessment method of advanced foreign countries including US, New Zealand and Japan are compared, and post-earthquake evaluation activities in 9.12 Earthquake and 11.15 Earthquake are analyzed. From the results, it is needed to expand the adapted building and structure types and strengthen the earthquake disaster response capacity of local government.

Risk Analysis System in Fuzzy Set Theory (퍼지 집합론을 이용한 위험분석 시스템)

  • 홍상우
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.13 no.21
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 1990
  • An assessment of risk in industrial and urban environments is essential in the prevention of accident and in the analysis of situations which are hazardous to public health and safety. The risk imposed by a particular hazard increases with the likelihood of occurence of the event, the exposure and the possible consequence of that event. In a traditional approach, the calculation of a quantitative value of risk is usually based on an assignment of numerical values of each of the risk factors. Then the product of the values of likelihood, exposure and consequences called risk score is derived. However vagueness and imprecision in mathematical quantification of risk are equated with fuzziness rather than randomness. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the area of systems safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique based on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

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A Case Study on the Estimation of the Risk based on Statistics (산업재해통계기반 Risk 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Woo, Jong-Gwon;Lee, Mi-Jeong;Seol, Mun-Su;Baek, Jong-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2021
  • Risk assessment techniques are processes used to evaluate hazardous risk factors in construction sites, facilities, raw materials, machinery, and equipment, and to estimate the size of risk that could lead to injury or disease, and establish countermeasures. The most important thing in assessing risk is calculating the size of the risk. If the size of the risk cannot be calculated objectively and quantitatively, all members who participated in the evaluation would passively engage in establishing and implementing appropriate measures. Therefore, this study focused on predicting accidents that are expected to occur in the future based on past occupational accident statistics, and quantifying the size of the risk in an overview. The technique employed in this study differs from other risk assessment techniques in that the subjective elements of evaluators were excluded as much as possible by utilizing past occupational accident statistics. This study aims to calculate the size of the risk, regardless of evaluators, such as a manager, supervisor, safety manager, or employee. The size of the risk is the combination of the likelihood and severity of an accident. In this study, the likelihood of an accident was evaluated using the theory of Bud Accident Chainability, and the severity of an accident was calculated using the occupational accident statistics over the past five years according to the accident classification by the International Labor Organization.