• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk assessment Model

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Slow Sorption of Hydrophobic Organic Contaminants in Natural Soils (자연토양에서의 소수성 유기오염물질의 느린 흡착)

  • Shin, Won Sik;Park, Taehyo;Ahn, Taebong;Chun, HeeDong
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2001
  • Sorption studies were conducted to determine if slow sorption fraction is observed in recent1y deposited organic matter by studying wetland soils explicitly. Sorption characteristics of hydrophobic organic compounds (chlorobenzene and phenanthrene) in recently deposited freshwater marsh soils were determined using a batch sorption procedure. Relative indicators of organic matter age were assessed using several techniques including the ratio of elemental oxygen to carbon in the organic matter. Slow sorption characteristics for both surface marsh soil (top 0-2 cm, <5 years old) and deeper marsh soil (below 10-cm, >20 years old) were compared against relatively older PPI (Petro Processors, Inc. Superfund site) and BM (Bayou Manchac) soils to investigate whether soil age can cause differences in sorption of organic compounds in wetland soils. Increases in sorption non-linearity of slow sorption model parameters (increase in KF and decrease in N) explain the existence of slow sorption fraction. The results of slow sorption model indicates the presence of a sizable slow sorption fraction; 25.4 - 26.3% (chlorobenzene) and 1.4 - 1.9% (phenanthrene) of the sorbed mass in wetland soils and 40.0 - 55.93% (chlorobenzene) and 2.9 - 3.19% (phenanthrene) of the sorbed mass in PPI and BM soils, respectively. The slow sorption fraction increased in the order of surface < deeper < PPI < BM soil indicating that size of the slow sorption fraction increases with soil organic matter age.

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Study of flood prevention alternative priorities using MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) (MCDM을 이용한 홍수방어대안 우선순위 정립에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Donghwa;Jeong, Soonchan;Lee, Eunkyung;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.169-179
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    • 2017
  • Recently, due to global warming and climate change in Korea, local heavy storm occurs frequently. In this study, the risky areas for flooding in urban areas are analyzed for flood inundation based on two-dimensional urban flood runoff model (XP-SWMM) focusing on coastal high flood-risk urban areas. In addition, the MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) technique is utilized in order to establish the flood defense structural measures. The alternative flood reduction method are compared and the optimum flood defense measures are selected. A simulation model was used with three structural flood prevention measures (drainage pipe construction, water detention, flood pumping station). In order to decrease the flooding area, flood assessment criteria are suggested (flooded area, maximum inundation depth, damaged residential area, construction cost). Priorities of alternatives are determined by using compromise programming. As a result, the optimal flood defence alternative suggested for Janghang Zone 1 is flood pumping station and for Janghang Zone 2, 3 are drainage pipe construction.

The Application of Fuzzy Logic to Assess the Performance of Participants and Components of Building Information Modeling

  • Wang, Bohan;Yang, Jin;Tan, Adrian;Tan, Fabian Hadipriono;Parke, Michael
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2018
  • In the last decade, the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) as a new technology has been applied with traditional Computer-aided design implementations in an increasing number of architecture, engineering, and construction projects and applications. Its employment alongside construction management, can be a valuable tool in helping move these activities and projects forward in a more efficient and time-effective manner. The traditional stakeholders, i.e., Owner, A/E and the Contractor are involved in this BIM system that is used in almost every activity of construction projects, such as design, cost estimate and scheduling. This article extracts major features of the application of BIM from perspective of participating BIM components, along with the different phrases, and applies to them a logistic analysis using a fuzzy performance tree, quantifying these phrases to judge the effectiveness of the BIM techniques employed. That is to say, these fuzzy performance trees with fuzzy logic concepts can properly translate the linguistic rating into numeric expressions, and are thus employed in evaluating the influence of BIM applications as a mathematical process. The rotational fuzzy models are used to represent the membership functions of the performance values and their corresponding weights. Illustrations of the use of this fuzzy BIM performance tree are presented in the study for the uninitiated users. The results of these processes are an evaluation of BIM project performance as highly positive. The quantification of the performance ratings for the individual factors is a significant contributor to this assessment, capable of parsing vernacular language into numerical data for a more accurate and precise use in performance analysis. It is hoped that fuzzy performance trees and fuzzy set analysis can be used as a tool for the quality and risk analysis for other construction techniques in the future. Baldwin's rotational models are used to represent the membership functions of the fuzzy sets. Three scenarios are presented using fuzzy MEAN, AND and OR gates from the lowest to intermediate levels of the tree, and fuzzy SUM gate to relate the intermediate level to the top component of the tree, i.e., BIM application final performance. The use of fuzzy MEAN for lower levels and fuzzy SUM gates to reach the top level suggests the most realistic and accurate results. The methodology (fuzzy performance tree) described in this paper is appropriate to implement in today's construction industry when limited objective data is presented and it is heavily relied on experts' subjective judgment.

Estimation of Ventilation Rates in Korean Homes Using Time-activity Patterns and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentration (시간활동양상 및 이산화탄소 농도를 이용한 한국 주택 환기량 추정)

  • Park, Jinhyeon;Ryu, Hyeonsu;Heo, Jung;Cho, Mansu;Yang, Wonho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the ventilation rate of residential homes in Korea through tracer gas methods using indoor and outdoor concentrations of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) and $CO_2$ generation rates from breathing. Methods: In this study, we calculated the number of occupants in a home by time through data on the average number of people per household from the Korean National Statistical Office and also measured the amount of $CO_2$ generation by breathing to estimate the indoor $CO_2$ generation rate. To estimate the ventilation rate, several factors such as the $CO_2$ generation rate and average volume of residential house provided by the Korean National Statistical Office, indoor $CO_2$ concentrations measured by sensors, and outdoor $CO_2$ concentrations provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration, were applied to a mass balance model for residential indoor environments. Results: The average number of people were 2.53 per household and Koreans spend 61.0% of their day at home. The $CO_2$ generation rate from breathing was $13.9{\pm}5.3L/h$ during sleep and $15.1{\pm}5.7L/h$ in a sedentary state. Indoor and outdoor $CO_2$ concentrations were 849 ppm and 407 ppm, respectively. The ventilation rate in Korean residential houses calculated by the mass balance model were $42.1m^3/h$ and 0.71 air change per hour. Conclusions: The estimated ventilation rate tended to increase with an increase in the number of occupants. Since sensor devices were used to collect data, sustainable data could be collected to estimate the ventilation rate of Korean residential homes, which enables further studies such as on changes in the ventilation rate by season resulting from the activities of occupants. The results of this study could be used as a basis for exposure and risk assessment modeling.

Predicting the Fetotoxicity of Drugs Using Machine Learning (기계학습 기반 약물의 태아 독성 예측 연구)

  • Myeonghyeon Jeong;Sunyong Yoo
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.490-497
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    • 2023
  • Pregnant women may need to take medications to treat preexisting diseases or diseases that develop during pregnancy. However, some drugs may be fetotoxic and lead to, for example, teratogenicity and growth retardation. Predicting the fetotoxicity of drugs is thus important for the health of the mother and fetus. The fetotoxicity of many drugs has not been established because various challenges hinder the ability of researchers to determine their fetotoxicity. The need exists for in silico-based fetotoxicity assessment models, as they can modernize the testing paradigm, improve predictability, and reduce the use of animals and the costs of fetotoxicity testing. In this study, we collected data on the fetotoxicity of drugs and constructed fetotoxicity prediction models based on various machine learning algorithms. We optimized the models for more precise predictions by tuning the hyperparameters. We then performed quantitative performance evaluations. The results indicated that the constructed machine learning-based models had high performance (AUROC >0.85, AUPR >0.9) in fetotoxicity prediction. We also analyzed the feature importance of our model's predictions, which could be leveraged to identify the specific features of drugs that are strongly associated with fetotoxicity. The proposed model can be used to prescreen drugs and drug candidates at a lower cost and in less time. It provides a predictive score for fetotoxicity risk, which may be beneficial in the design of studies on fetotoxicity in human pregnancy.

Study on the Consequence Effect Analysis & Process Hazard Review at Gas Release from Hydrogen Fluoride Storage Tank (최근 불산 저장탱크에서의 가스 누출시 공정위험 및 결과영향 분석)

  • Ko, JaeSun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.449-461
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    • 2013
  • As the hydrofluoric acid leak in Gumi-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do or hydrochloric acid leak in Ulsan, Gyeongsangnam-do demonstrated, chemical related accidents are mostly caused by large amounts of volatile toxic substances leaking due to the damages of storage tank or pipe lines of transporter. Safety assessment is the most important concern because such toxic material accidents cause human and material damages to the environment and atmosphere of the surrounding area. Therefore, in this study, a hydrofluoric acid leaked from a storage tank was selected as the study example to simulate the leaked substance diffusing into the atmosphere and result analysis was performed through the numerical Analysis and diffusion simulation of ALOHA(Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres). the results of a qualitative evaluation of HAZOP (Hazard Operability)was looked at to find that the flange leak, operation delay due to leakage of the valve and the hose, and toxic gas leak were danger factors. Possibility of fire from temperature, pressure and corrosion, nitrogen supply overpressure and toxic leak from internal corrosion of tank or pipe joints were also found to be high. ALOHA resulting effects were a little different depending on the input data of Dense Gas Model, however, the wind direction and speed, rather than atmospheric stability, played bigger role. Higher wind speed affected the diffusion of contaminant. In term of the diffusion concentration, both liquid and gas leaks resulted in almost the same $LC_{50}$ and ALOHA AEGL-3(Acute Exposure Guidline Level) values. Each scenarios showed almost identical results in ALOHA model. Therefore, a buffer distance of toxic gas can be determined by comparing the numerical analysis and the diffusion concentration to the IDLH(Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health). Such study will help perform the risk assessment of toxic leak more efficiently and be utilized in establishing community emergency response system properly.

Significance Analysis of Facility Fires Though Spatial Econometrics Assessment (공간계량분석 방법에 따른 시설물 화재 발생 유의성 분석)

  • Seo, Min Song;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.281-293
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    • 2020
  • Recently, large and small fires have been happening more often in Korea. Fire is one of the most frequent disasters along with traffic accidents in korean cities, and this frequency is closely related to the land use and the type of facilities. Therefore, in this study, the significance of fires was analyzed by considering land use, facility types, human and social factors and using 10 years of fire data in Jinju city. Based on this, OLS (Ordinary Least Square) regression analysis, SLM (Spatial Lag Model) and SEM (Spatial Error Model) using space weights, were compared and analyzed considering the location of the fire and each factor, then a statistical model with high suitability was presented. As a result, LISA analysis of spatial distribution patterns of fires in Jinju city was conducted, and it was proved that the frequency of fires was high in the order as follow, central commercial area, industrial area and residential area. Multiple regression analysis was performed by integrating demographic, social, and physical variables. Therefore, the three models were compared and analyzed by applying spatial weighting to the derived factors. As a result of the significance test, the spatial error model was analyzed to be the most significant. The facilities that have the highest correlation with fire occurrence were second type neighborhood facilities, followed by detached house, first type neighborhood facilities, number of households, and sales facilities. The results of this study are expected to be used as significant data to identify factors and manage fire safety in urban areas. Also, through the analysis of the standard deviation ellipsoid, the distribution characteristics of each facility in the residential area, industrial area, and central commercial area among the use areas were analyzed. In, the second type neighborhood facility with the highest fire risk was concentrated in the center. The results of these studies are expected to be used as useful data for identifying factors and managing fire safety in urban areas.

A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs (비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측 모델)

  • Won, Ha-Ram;Shim, Jae-Seung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2019
  • Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

Prediction of Species Distribution Changes for Key Fish Species in Fishing Activity Protected Areas in Korea (국내 어업활동보호구역 주요 어종의 종분포 변화 예측)

  • Hyeong Ju Seok;Chang Hun Lee;Choul-Hee Hwang;Young Ryun Kim;Daesun Kim;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.802-811
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    • 2023
  • Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

The Smartphone User's Dilemma among Personalization, Privacy, and Advertisement Fatigue: An Empirical Examination of Personalized Smartphone Advertisement (스마트폰 이용자의 모바일 광고 수용의사에 영향을 주는 요인: 개인화된 서비스, 개인정보보호, 광고 피로도 사이에서의 딜레마)

  • You, Soeun;Kim, Taeha;Cha, Hoon S.
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.77-100
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the factors that influence the smartphone user's decision to accept the personalized mobile advertisement. As a theoretical basis, we applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) that illustrates how consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. In particular, we investigated how smartphone users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service as benefit-side factor and information privacy risks as a risk-side factor accompanying their acceptance of advertisements. Further, we extend the current PCM by considering advertisement fatigue as a new factor that may influence the user's acceptance. The research model with five (5) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 215 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a mobile advertisement service was provided. The results showed that three (3) out of five (5) hypotheses were supported. First, we found that the intention to accept advertisements is positively and significantly influenced by the perceived value of personalization. Second, perceived advertisement fatigue was also found to be a strong predictor of the intention to accept advertisements. However, we did not find any evidence of direct influence of privacy risks. Finally, we found that the significant moderating effect between the perceived value of personalization and advertisement fatigue. This suggests that the firms should provide effective tailored advertisement that can increase the perceived value of personalization to mitigate the negative impacts of advertisement fatigue.