• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Threshold

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Establishment of Crowd Management Safety Measures Based on Crowd Density Risk Simulation (군중 밀집 위험도 시뮬레이션 기반의 인파 관리 안전대책 수립)

  • Hyuncheol Kim;Hyungjun Im;Seunghyun Lee;Youngbeom Ju;Soonjo Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.96-103
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    • 2023
  • Generally, human stampedes and crowd collapses occur when people press against each other, causing falls that may result in death or injury. Particularly, crowd accidents have become increasingly common since the 1990s, with an average of 380 deaths annually. For instance, in Korea, a stampede occurred during the Itaewon Halloween festival on October 29, 2022, when several people crowded onto a narrow, downhill road, which was 45 meters long and between 3.2 and 4 meters wide. Precisely, this stampede was primarily due to the excessive number of people relative to the road size. Essentially, stampedes can occur anywhere and at any time, not just at events, but also in other places where large crowds gather. More specifically, the likelihood of accidents increases when the crowd density exceeds a turbulence threshold of 5-6 /m2. Meanwhile, festivals and events, which have become more frequent and are promoted through social media, garner people from near and far to a specific location. Besides, as cities grow, the number of people gathering in one place increases. While stampedes are rare, their impact is significant, and the uncertainty associated with them is high. Currently, there is no scientific system to analyze the risk of stampedes due to crowd concentration. Consequently, to prevent such accidents, it is essential to prepare for crowd disasters that reflect social changes and regional characteristics. Hence, this study proposes using digital topographic maps and crowd-density risk simulations to develop a 3D model of the region. Specifically, the crowd density simulation allows for an analysis of the density of people walking along specific paths, which enables the prediction of danger areas and the risk of crowding. By using the simulation method in this study, it is anticipated that safety measures can be rationally established for specific situations, such as local festivals, and preparations may be made for crowd accidents in downtown areas.

The Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome in Inpatients with Schizophrenia (정신분열병 입원 환자에서의 대사 증후군 유병률 연구)

  • Roh, Jae-Woo;Cho, Yeon-Soo;Cho, Ae-Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.46-54
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    • 2011
  • Objectives : The objective of this study is to assess the prevalence and risk factors of metabolic syndrome (MS) among inpatients with schizophrenia, and to compare with general population. Methods : Nine hundreds seventy inpatients were included to assess the prevalence of MS from two mental hospitals in Yong-in city. Assessment of MS was performed based on modified American Heart Association criteria with abdominal obesity threshold of 90cm for men, 85cm for women. Comparative analysis was performed using age- and gender matched sample from Korea Health and Nutritional Examination Survey III. For evaluating risk factors, analysis included 766 inpatients taking consistent medications at least for 30 days. Results : The prevalence of MS of inpatients with schizophrenia was 26.2%, in females it was 33.2%, compared to 20.2% in males(p < 0.001). Compared to general population, the prevalence of MS was significantly lower in male and higher in female patients. In terms of criteria prevalence, who met abdominal circumference criterion were more prevalent in patient group(p < 0.001). After multivariate analysis, female gender and old age remained as risk factors of MS. Conclusions : The prevalence of MS of inpatients with schizophrenia was 26.2% and significantly low compared to general population. Female gender and old age were risk factors of MS.

An Update on Occupation and Prostate Cancer

  • Doolan, Glenn;Benke, Geza;Giles, Graham
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.501-516
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    • 2014
  • Background: Our aim was to identify gaps and limitations in the current literature and to make recommendations for future research required to address these. Materials and Methods: We reviewed occupational exposures and related factors associated with the risk of prostate cancer between 2000 and 2012. These included chemical, ergonomic, physical or environmental, and psychosocial factors which have been reported by epidemiological studies across a range of industries. Results: The results are inconsistent from study to study and generally this is due to the reliance upon the retrospectivity of case-control studies and prevalence (ecological) studies. Exposure assessment bias is a recurring limitation of many of the studies in this review. Conclusions: We consider there is insufficient evidence to implicate prostate cancer risk for ergonomic, physical, environmental or psychosocial factors, but there is sufficient evidence to implicate toxic metals, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). More research is required to identify specific pesticides that may be associated with risk of prostate cancer.

A Forecast Model for the First Occurrence of Phytophthora Blight on Chili Pepper after Overwintering

  • Do, Ki-Seok;Kang, Wee-Soo;Park, Eun-Woo
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.172-184
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    • 2012
  • An infection risk model for Phytophthora blight on chili pepper was developed to estimate the first date of disease occurrence in the field. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of zoosporangium formation, soil water content, and amount of active inoculum in soil. Daily weather data on air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, and the soil texture data of local areas were used to estimate infection risk level that was quantified as the accumulated amount of active inoculum during the prior three days. Based on the analysis on 190 sets of weather and disease data, it was found that the threshold infection risk of 224 could be an appropriate criterion for determining the primary infection date. The 95% confidence interval for the difference between the estimated date of primary infection and the observed date of first disease occurrence was $8{\pm}3$ days. In the model validation tests, the observed dates of first disease occurrence were within the 95% confidence intervals of the estimated dates in the five out of six cases. The sensitivity analyses suggested that the model was more responsive to temperature and soil texture than relative humidity, rainfall, and transplanting date. The infection risk model could be implemented in practice to control Phytophthora blight in chili pepper fields.

Psychosocial Risk Management in the Teaching Profession: A Systematic Review

  • Wischlitzki, Elisabeth;Amler, Nadja;Hiller, Julia;Drexler, Hans
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.385-396
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    • 2020
  • Teachers are facing various job demands with psychosocial aspects being fundamental due to the nature of the occupation. Although teachers' work is associated with different psychosocial health risks, little is known on how to identify and tackle those. Thus, a systematic literature search as per the PRISMA statement was conducted via MEDLINE (PubMed), PSYNDEX (PubPsych), and ScienceDirect. Two reviewers independently screened 2261 titles and abstracts and 169 full-texts. According to the inclusion criteria established a priori, articles from peer-reviewed journals (English or German) on psychosocial risk management in teachers were incorporated. Despite a comprehensive and sensitive search, only four publications could be identified, outlining a process to implement risk management and different assessment tools. Taken together, data presented in the articles were scarce. Recommendations for process steps and the assessment of psychosocial risks can be derived from the findings. To implement effective psychosocial risk management in the teaching profession, further research is needed, though. Effective and practicable approaches, which are accepted by the target group, should be further developed and investigated. Relevant causes of occupational strain in the teaching profession must be identified and assessed reliably. Low-threshold interventions should be implemented, and the outcome must be evaluated afterward.

Risk Assessment of Escherichia coli Infection from Use of Interactive Waterscape Facilities (수경시설 물놀이에 따른 대장균 감염의 위해도 분석)

  • Zo, Young-Gun
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: With the goal of quantifying the risk of children contracting gastroenteritis while playing at interactive waterscape facilities and evaluating the adequacy of current water quality regulations, risk assessment was performed with Escherichia coli as pathogen. Methods: Abundances of E. coli in the waters of interactive water features in South Korea were acquired from survey reports. A gamma distribution describing the volume of water swallowed by children during swimming activities was adopted. Exposure rate and risk were calculated by Monte Carlo simulation and dose-response models for various pathogenic E. coli. Results: E. coli was detected in 25 out of 40 facilities, with range of ~1,600 CFU/100 ml. The abundance fitted an exponential distribution. Simulated exposures ranged ${\sim}1.9{\times}10^{10}$ CFU, varying greater along E. coli abundance than the volume of water. Risk of children being infected by enterohemorrhagic E. coli was high, with range of ~0.85. When E. coli abundance was <200 CFU/100 ml, which is the current government threshold, the risk decreased to <0.43. Although the guideline successfully reduced the risk of adults being infected by a less virulent E. coli strains (<0.03), the risk for children could not be quantified due to lack of dose-response models for those pathogens for children. Conclusions: Under the current guideline, children are at risk of being infected if water is contaminated with by enterohemorrhagic E. coli. For other E. coli strains, the risk appears to be considerably less. The result warrants need for developing dose-response models for children for each pathogenic E. coli strain.

Threshold Primary Tumour Sizes for Nodal and Distant Metastases in Papillary and Follicular Thyroid Cancers

  • Zaman, Maseeh Uz;Fatima, Nosheen;Sajjad, Zafar;Akhtar, Jaweed;Islam, Najmul;Masood, Qamar;Ahmed, Asma
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2473-2476
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    • 2012
  • Background: In papillary and follicular thyroid cancers (PTC, FTC), nodal and distant metastasis are generally considered important determinants of recurrence and survival, respectively. However, there is no consensus about the threshold primary tumour size (PTS) for these determinants. The aim of this study was to assess size relationships for developing nodal, pulmonary, bone and overall distant metastases. Methods: This prospective study covered 139 (93 females and 46 males) consecutive biopsy proven patients with PTC (114/139, mean age $41.0{\pm}15.7$ years, M: F, 35%:65%) and FTC (25/139, mean age $39.2{\pm}14.3$ years, M: F: 24%:76%). Results: Average primary tumor size was $23.4{\pm}11.1$ mm and $26.5{\pm}13.1$ mm for PTC and FTC respectively (p value=0.223). Nodal metastasis was found more common in PTC than FTC (49% vs 28%, p value <0.05), whereas overall distant metastasis was approximately the same (13% and 24%, p value=0.277); however, bone metastasis was significantly higher in FTC than PTC (24% vs 5%, p value <0.05). Cumulative risk for nodal and distant metastases for FTC and PTC starts at PTS <20 mm and may indicate an unusual aggressive tumor behavior in the studied population. Highest cumulative risk for nodal and pulmonary metastases in PTC and for bone metastasis in FTC was found to be ${\geq}50$ mm PTS. Conclusion: We conclude that a PTS of <20 mm may indicate an unusual aggressive tumor behavior with highest cumulative risk for nodal and pulmonary metastases in PTC and for bone metastasis in FTC with a cutoff of ${\geq}50$ mm.

Evaluation of Biomechanical Movements and Injury Risk Factors in Weight Lifting (Snatch)

  • Moon, YoungJin
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.369-375
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    • 2016
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the possibility of injuries and the types of movement related to damage by body parts, and to prepare for prevention of injuries and development of a training program. Method: For this study, the experiment was conducted according to levels of 60 percentages (ST) and 85 percentages (MA) and 10 subjects from the Korean elite national weightlifting team were included. Furthermore, we analyzed joint moment and muscle activation pattern with three-dimensional video analysis. Ground reaction force and EMG analyses were performed to measure the factors related to injuries and motion. Results: Knee reinjuries such as anterior cruciate ligament damage caused by deterioration of the control ability for the forward movement function of the tibia based on the movement of the biceps femoris when the rectus femoris is activated with the powerful last-pull movement. In particular, athletes with previous or current injuries should perceive a careful contiguity of the ratio of the biceps femoris to the rectus femoris. This shows that athletes can exert five times greater force than the injury threshold in contrast to the inversion moment of the ankle, which is actively performed for a powerful last pull motion and is positively considered in terms of intentional motion. It is activated by excessive adduction and internal rotation moment to avoid excessive abduction and external rotation of the knee at lockout motion. It is an injury risk to muscles and ligaments, causing large adduction moment and internal rotation moment at the knee. Adduction moment in the elbow joint increased to higher than the injury threshold at ST (60% level) in the lockout phase. Hence, all athletes are indicated to be at a high risk of injury of the elbow adductor muscle. Lockout motion is similar to the "high five" posture, and repetitive training in this motion increases the likelihood of injuries because of occurrence of strong internal rotation and adduction of the shoulder. Training volume of lockout motion has to be considered when developing a training program. Conclusion: The important factors related to injury at snatch include B/R rate, muscles to activate the adduction moment and internal rotation moment at the elbow joint in the lockout phase, and muscles to activate the internal rotation moment at the shoulder joint in the lockout phase.

Electroconvulsive Therapy for Psychiatric Disorders in Elderly Adults (노년기 정신장애의 전기경련치료)

  • Joo, Eun-Jeong;Kim, Hee Cheol;Kang, Ung Gu;Lee, Nam Young;Park, Seung Hyun;Kim, Jung Min;Kim, Yong Sik;Chung, In Won
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.42-57
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    • 2020
  • Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is indicated for various mental disorders (e.g., major depressive disorder, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder) and the behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia in elderly patients. Furthermore, ECT is a useful first-line treatment in emergency and crisis situations such as suicide risk, violent behavior, catatonia, and food refusal, which are more frequent in elderly patients. ECT is also effective in the treatment of the motor symptoms of neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease and Huntington's disease. Due to the high risk of various physical diseases, the comorbid physical conditions of elderly patients should be individually controlled to optimize ECT treatment. Compared to young adults, in elderly patients the seizure threshold is higher, the seizure duration is shorter, and the anesthetic dose is lower. On the contrary, the response rate in the elderly is both faster and higher. Considering potential cognitive decline and the prevention of further deterioration of cognitive function in elderly patients, in the absence of significant comorbidities, twice weekly sessions and right unilateral electrode placement with a lower seizure threshold and less cognitive effect are preferred to bilateral electrode placement, which has a high risk of adverse cognitive effects. After an acute course of ECT, continuation and maintenance of ECT, combined with prescription of therapeutic drugs, may prevent possible relapse or recurrence of mental disorders. In conclusion, ECT can be used to treat mental disorders in elderly adults, with safety and effectiveness comparable to that in young adults.

Changes in the Attributable Burden of High Temperatures on Deaths (하절기 기온상승으로 인한 사망의 기여부담 변화)

  • Ha, Jongsik
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.460-471
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: Due to global warming resulting from climate change, there has been increasing interest in the relationship between temperature and mortality. These temperature-related deaths depend on diverse conditions related to a given place and person, as well as on time. This study examined changes in the impact of high temperatures on death in summer, using the effect and burden of elevated temperatures on deaths in Seoul and Daegu. Methods: A Poisson regression model was used to estimate short-term temperature effects on mortality. Temperature-related risks were divided into three time periods of equal length (1996-2000, 2001-2005, and 2006-2010). In addition, in order to compare the impact of high temperatures on deaths, this study calculated the proportion of attributable deaths to population, which simultaneously considers the threshold and the slope above the threshold. Results: The effect and burden of high temperatures on deaths is high in Daegu. However, the impact (i.e. the effect and burden) of elevated summer temperatures on deaths has declined over the past 15 years. Sensitivity analyses using alternative thresholds show the robustness of these findings. Conclusion: This study suggests that the attributable burden of high temperatures on deaths to be more plausible than relative risk or threshold for comparing the health impact of high temperatures across populations. Moreover, these results contain important implications for the development or the adjustment of present and future strategies and policies for controlling the temperature-related health burden on populations.