• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk Severity

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표준강수지수와 강수 부족량을 이용한 이변량 가뭄빈도해석: 한강유역을 중심으로 (Drought assessment by bivariate frequency analysis using standardized precipitation index and precipitation deficit: focused on Han river basin)

  • 권민성;성장현;김태웅;안재현
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제51권10호
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    • pp.875-886
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구에서는 표준강수지수를 이용하여 가뭄사상을 정의하고, 가뭄심도와 부족 강수량을 대상으로 이변량 가뭄빈도해석을 수행하였다. 부족강수량은 표준강수지수의 가뭄기준인 -1에 해당하는 강수량을 기준으로 산정하였다. 지금까지 연구에서 가뭄지수의 심도와 지속기간 이용한 빈도해석을 통한 가뭄의 평가가 주를 이루었다. 하지만 이 두 변량은 선형적인 관계가 매우 높아 각 변량에 대한 단변량 빈도해석과 비교하여 정보의 확장성은 크지 않다. 2015년 가뭄의 경우, 서울, 양평, 충주지점의 '가뭄심도-부족 강수량'량의 재현기간은 모두 300년 이상의 극심한 가뭄을 나타내고 있지만, '가뭄심도-지속기간'에서는 재현기간을 약 10년, 50년, 50년으로 평가하여 큰 차이를 나타냈다. 우기를 포함한 가뭄은 강수량 부족이 심각할지라도 가뭄심도는 가뭄을 상대적으로 낮게 평가할 수 있어 실제 가뭄의 심각성을 나타내는데 한계가 있었다. '가뭄심도-부족 강수량' 빈도해석 결과는 강수량의 절대적인 부족량 정보를 함께 포함하고 있어, 가뭄에 대응하기 위한 지표로 활용성이 높을 것으로 판단된다.

남성 건강검진 수진자들에서 알코올성 및 비알코올성 지방간과 대사증후군과의 관련성 (Association of Alcoholic & Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease with Metabolic Syndrome in Health Screen Examinees of Men)

  • 정의경;강영한;박재용
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제9권6호
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    • pp.237-246
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    • 2009
  • 최근 성인 남성에서 비만 인구가 늘어나며, 심혈관질환을 야기하는 대사증후군 유병률이 증가하고 있고, 증상이 없지만 지방간으로 진단되는 환자가 늘고 있다. 본 연구는 알코올성 또는 비알코올성 지방간 질환과 대사증후군과의 관련성이 있는지 알아보고자 하였다. 799명의 남성을 대상으로 평소 음주량을 조사하였고, 초음파 검사를 통해 지방간 유무를 확인 한 결과 297명은 정상군이었고, 206명은 알코올성 지방간, 296명은 비알코올성 지방간이었다. IDF(international diabetes federation) 기준을 적용한 대사증후군과 구성요소들을 독립변수로, AFLD(alcoholic fatty liver disease) 및 NAFLD(nonalcoholic fatty liver disease)을 종속변수로 하여 로지스틱 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 정상군과 AFLD 또는 NAFLD에서 대사증후군의 분포는 각각 7.4%, 48.8%, 34.9%이었고, 대사증후군 구성요소 중 고혈압, 고혈당, 고중성지방, 비만은 AFLD 또는 NAFLD의 위험인자였고, AFLD에선 고중성지방과 복부비만이, NAFLD에서는 복부비만이 영향력이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다. 또한 AFLD군의 경우 대사증후군과 비만, 저HDL-콜레스테롤의 이상범위에서 지방간 중증의 교차비가 높았고, NAFLD군에서는 대사증후군과 고중성지방군의 이상범위에서 지방간 중증의 교차비가 높았다. 결론적으로 AFLD 및 NAFLD는 대사증후군 구성요소 각각의 기준과 밀접한 관련성이 있었고, 지방간 관리를 위해 꾸준하고 포괄적인 접근이 필요하다.

무인교통단속장비 설치 판단 기준 및 설치대수 산정 연구 (Study on Estimation of Unmanned Enforcement Equipment Installation Criteria and Proper Installation Number)

  • 소형준;김용만;김남선;황재성;이철기
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제19권6호
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 2020
  • 교통사고 예방을 위해 설치되는 무인교통단속장비의 운영대수는 매년 경찰청과 지방자치단체의 지속적인 설치로 해마다 증가하고 있다. 하지만 공학적, 체계적인 분석결과가 아닌 민원 위주의 정성적인 판단을 기반으로 설치하고 있어 정량적인 설치기준이 필요한 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 도로 유형별 사고 심각도를 고려한 설치 판단기준을 제시하고 필요 설치대수를 산출하여 향후 추가 설치대수를 도출하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 사고건수와 KSI를 활용하여 교통사고 심각도를 나타낼 수 있는 ARI 지표를 개발하였으며, 일원배치 분산분석과 군집분석을 통해 도로유형을 4가지 유형으로 분류하고, 도로 유형별 사고 잦은 곳의 사고정보를 분석하여 교통사고 심각도가 높은 군집의 ARI를 도출하였다. 도로 유형별 단속장비의 설치 판단을 위한 ARI 값을 제시하였고, 사고 잦은 곳 중 교통단속장비가 기 설치된 구간을 제외하고 5,244대의 추가 설치가 필요한 것으로 분석되었다.

머신러닝 기법을 이용한 재해강도 분류모형 개발 (Development of disaster severity classification model using machine learning technique)

  • 이승민;백선욱;이준학;김경탁;김수전;김형수
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제56권4호
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    • pp.261-272
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    • 2023
  • 최근 급격한 도시화와 기후변화에 따라 재난에 의한 피해가 증가하고 있다. 국내 기상청에서는 표준 경보(주의보, 경보)를 전국적으로 통일된 표준 경보 기준(3시간 및 12시간 최대 누적강우량)에 따라 발령하여 재해에 따른 지역별, 재난 사상별 특성이 고려되지 않은 문제점이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 서울특별시, 인천광역시, 경기도의 호우·태풍에 대한 재해 피해액 및 누적강우량을 활용하여 대상지역별 재해강도에 따른 단계별 기준을 설정하고, 강우에 따라 발생할 수 있는 재해의 강도를 분류하는 모형을 개발하고자 하였다. 즉, 본 연구에서는 호우·태풍에 의한 재해 피해액 누적 분포 함수의 분위별로 재해강도의 범주(관심, 주의, 경계, 심각 단계)를 분류하였고, 재해강도의 범주에 따른 누적강우량 기준을 대상 지자체별로 제시하였다. 그리고 지자체별 재해강도 분류모형 개발을 위해 4가지(의사결정나무, 서포트 벡터 머신, 랜덤 포레스트, XGBoost)의 머신러닝 모형을 활용하였는데 강우량, 누적강우량, 지속시간 최대 강우량(3시간, 12시간), 선행강우량을 독립변수로 이용하여 종속변수인 지자체별 재해강도를 분류하였다. 각 모형별 F1 점수를 이용한 정확도 평가 결과, 의사결정나무의 F1 점수가 0.56으로 가장 우수한 정확도를 보였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 머신러닝 기반 재해강도 분류모형을 활용하면 호우·태풍에 의한 재해에 대한 지자체별 위험 상태를 단계별로 파악할 수 있어, 재난 담당자들의 신속한 의사결정을 위한 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Whole Genome Analysis of Human Papillomavirus Type 16 Multiple Infection in Cervical Cancer Patients

  • Chansaenroj, Jira;Theamboonlers, Apiradee;Junyangdikul, Pairoj;Swangvaree, Sukumarn;Karalak, Anant;Poovorawan, Yong
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.599-606
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    • 2012
  • The characterization of the whole genome of human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) from cervical cancer specimens with multiple infections in comparison with single infection samples as the oncogenic potential of the virus may differ. Cervical carcinoma specimens positive for HPV16 by PCR and INNO-LiPA were randomly selected for whole genome characterization. Two HPV16 single infection and six HPV16 multiple infection specimens were subjected to whole genome analysis by using conserved primers and subsequent sequencing. All HPV16 whole genomes from single infection samples clustered in the European (E) lineage while all multiple infection specimens belonged to the non-European lineage. The variations in nucleotide sequences in E6, E7, E2, L1 and Long control region (LCR) were evaluated. In the E6 region, amino acid changes at L83V were related to increased cancer progression. An amino acid variation N29S within the E7 oncoprotein significantly associated with severity of lesion was also discovered. In all three domains of the E2 gene non synonymous mutations were found. The L1 region showed various mutations which may be related to conformation changes of viral epitopes. Some transcription factor binding sites in the LCR region correlated to virulence were shown on GRE/1, TEF-1, YY14 and Oct-1. HPV16 European variant prone to single infection may harbor a major variation at L83V which significantly increases the risk for developing cervical carcinoma. HPV16 non-European variants prone to multiple infections may require many polymorphisms to enhance the risk of cervical cancer development.

MRI Findings to Predict Neurodevelopmental Outcomes in Preterm Infants Near Term-Equivalent Age

  • Hong, Hyun Sook;Kim, Sung Shin;Park, Ga Young
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.30-37
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: Preterm infants are at high risk for adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been proposed as a means of predicting neurodevelopmental outcomes in this population. It is controversial whether diffuse excessive high signal intensity (DEHSI) represents damage to the white matter or delayed myelination in preterm infants. This study investigated MRI findings for predicting the severity of neurodevelopmental outcomes and assessing whether preterm infants with DEHSI near term-equivalent age have abnormal neurodevelopmental outcomes. Materials and Methods: Preterm infants (n = 64, gestational age at birth < 35 weeks) undergoing brain MRI near term-equivalent age and subsequent neurodevelopmental outcomes were evaluated between 18 and 24 months of age. The associations of MRI findings and the risk of severe cognitive delay, severe psychomotor delay, cerebral palsy (CP), and neurosensory impairment were analyzed. The associations of DEHSI with risks of severe cognitive delay, severe psychomotor delay, CP, and neurosensory impairment (hearing or visual impairment) were analyzed. Outcome data were evaluated by logistic regression and the Fisher's exact test. Results: There were significant associations between abnormal white matter findings and delayed mental development, delayed psychomotor development, neurosensory impairment, and presence of CP. The presence of DEHSI was not correlated with delayed neurodevelopmental outcomes or presence of CP. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, cystic encephalomalacia, punctate lesion, loss of white matter volume and ventricular dilation were significantly associated with CP. Conclusion: Abnormal MRI findings near term-equivalent age in preterm infants predict adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. No significant association between DEHSI and adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes was demonstrated.

구미 불산 누출사고로 인한 주변지역 환경영향권 설정에 관한 연구 (Defining Area of Damage of 2012 Hydrofluoric Acid Spill Accident in Gumi, Korea)

  • 고도현;김정수;최경호
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제40권1호
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: On September 27, 2012, leakage of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid occurred in a chemical plant in the Gumi National Industrial Complex. Following the accident, local factory workers and residents complained of abnormal health conditions. In addition, visual discolorations were widely observed in crops and trees in surrounding areas. The main objectives of the present study were to identify the area that was affected by the spill using data obtained from plants, soil, and water samples after the accident. Methods: Fluoride concentrations were analyzed in pine tree needles, soil, nearby streams, ponds and reservoirs collected from an area within a radius of three kilometers from the plant where the leak occurred. Fluoride concentrations in the air at the time of leakage were then estimated from fluoride concentrations that were measured in the pine tree needles. A Kriged map was developed to describe the spatial distribution of hydrofluoric acid at the time of the leakage and was compared with the area designated as a Special Disaster Zone by the government. Results: The Special Disaster Zone did not include all the affected area that was estimated by the Kriged map. Analytical results of the environmental samples also supported this discrepancy. Conclusion: Using plants, atmospheric concentrations of fluoride at the time of the leakage could be estimated. For the area that was identified as affected, further public health risk assessment and environmental risk assessment should be considered. Also, in the absence of air monitoring at the time of leakage, studies employing plants may be conducted in order to better understand the spatial extent and severity of the contamination.

The effect of CYP1A2 gene polymorphisms on Theophylline metabolism and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Turkish patients

  • Uslu, Ahmet;Ogus, Candan;Ozdemir, Tulay;Bilgen, Turker;Tosun, Ozgur;Keser, Ibrahim
    • BMB Reports
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    • 제43권8호
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    • pp.530-534
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    • 2010
  • Cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A2 gene polymorphisms are thought to be involved in the metabolism of theophylline (TP). We aimed to investigate the effect of CYP1A2*1C, CYP1A2*1D, CYP1A2*1E, and CYP1A2*1F polymorphisms of the CYP1A2 on TP metabolism by PCR-RFLP in 100 Turkish patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) receiving TP. One hundred and one healthy volunteers were included as control group. The genotype frequencies of the CYP1A2*1D and CYP1A2*1F were found to be significantly different in the patients compared to the controls. The "T" allele at -2467 delT and the "C" allele at -163 C > A in the CYP1A2 displayed association with a significantly increased risk for COPD. "T" allele at -2467 delT was also associated with a high risk of disease severity in COPD. In conclusion, our data suggest that genetic alterations in CYP1A2 may play a role both in the pharmacogenetics of TP and in the development of COPD.

외상성 십이지장 손상의 치료 성적 (Treatment Outcomes of Traumatic Duodenal Injury)

  • 유병혁;조자윤;임경훈;박진영
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.129-133
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the surgical outcome of duodenal injuries and to analyze the risk factors related to the leakage after surgical treatment. Methods: A retrospective review of 31 patients with duodenal injuries who managed by surgical treatment was conducted from December 2000 to May 2014. The demographic characteristics, injury mechanism, site of duodenal injury, association of intraabdominal organ injuries, injury severity score (ISS), abdominal abbreviated injury scale (AIS), injury-operation time lag, surgical treatment methods, complications, and mortality were reviewed. Results: Duodenal injury was more common in male. Twenty four (77.4%) patients were injured by blunt trauma. The most common injury site was in the second portion of the duodenum (n=19, 58.6%). Fourteen patients (45.2%) had other associated intraabdominal organ injuries. The mean ISS is $13.6{\pm}9.6$. The mean AIS is $8.9{\pm}6.5$. Eighteen patients (58.1%) were treated by primary closure. The remaining 13 patients underwent various operations, including exploratory laparotomy (n=4), pancreaticoduodenectomy (n=3), pyloric exclusion (n=3), Resection with end-to-end anastomosis (n=2), and duodenojejunostomy (n=1). Most common postoperative complications were intraabdominal abscess (n=9) and renal failure (n=9). Mortality rate was 9.7%. Conclusion: ISS, AIS>10, operative time, pancreaticoduodenectomy, sepsis, and renal failure are significant predictors of a postoperative leak after duodenal injury. Careful management is needed to prevent a potential leak in patient with these findings.

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Clinical Factors and Perioperative Strategies Associated with Outcome in Preinjury Antiplatelet and Anticoagulation Therapy for Patients with Traumatic Brain Injuries

  • Pang, Chang Hwan;Lee, Soo Eon;Yoo, Heon
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제58권3호
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    • pp.262-270
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    • 2015
  • Objective : Long-term oral anticoagulation or antiplatelet therapy has been used with increasing frequency in the elderly. These patients are at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from expansion of intracranial hemorrhage. We conducted a single-center retrospective case control study to evaluate risk factors associated with outcomes and to identify the differences in outcome in traumatic brain injury between preinjury anticoagulation use and without anticoagulation. Methods : A retrospective study of patients who underwent craniotomy or craniectomy for acute traumatic cerebral hemorrhage, between January 2005 and December 2014 was performed. Results : A consecutive series of 50 patients were evaluated. The factors significantly differed between the two groups were initial Prothrombin Time-International Normalized Ratio, initial platelet count, initial Glasgow Coma Scale score, and postoperative intracranial bleeding. Mean Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score were similar between the two groups. In the patient with low-energy trauma only, no significant differences in GOS score, postoperative bleeding and many other factors were observed. The contributing factors to postoperative bleeding was preinjury anticoagulation and its adjusted odds ratio was 12 [adjusted odds ratio (OR), 12.242; p=0.0070]. The contributing factors to low GOS scores, which mean unfavorable neurological outcomes, were age (adjusted OR, 1.073; p=0.039) and Rotterdam scale score for CT scans (adjusted OR, 3.123; p=0.0020). Conclusion : Preinjury anticoagulation therapy contributed significantly to the occurrence of postoperative bleeding. However, preinjury anticoagulation therapy in the patients with low-energy trauma did not contribute to the poor clinical outcomes or total hospital stay. Careful attention should be given to older patients and severity of hemorrhage on initial brain CT.