• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Sensitivity

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Understanding Relationships Among Risk Factors in Container Port Operation UsingBayesian Network

  • Tsenskhuu Nyamjav;Min-Ho Ha
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.93-99
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to determine relationships among risk factors influencing container port operation using Bayesian network. Risk factors identified from prior studies were classified into five groups: human error, machinery error, environmental risk, security risk, and natural disasters. P anel experts discussed identified risk factors to fulfil conditional probability tables of the interdependence model. The interdependence model was also validated by sensitivity analysis and provided an interrelation of factors influencing the direction of each other. Results of the interdependence model were partially in line with results from prior studies while practices in the global port industry confirmed interrelationships of risk factors. In addition, the relationship between top-ranked risk factors can provide a schematic drawing of the model. Accordingly, results of this study can expand the prior research in the Korean port industry, which may help port authorities improve risk management and reduce losses from the risk.

The Moderating Effects of School Violence Victimization Experiences in the Relationships between Airmen's Rejection Sensitivity, Depression, and Anxiety (공군장병의 거부민감성과 우울 및 불안의 관계에서 학교폭력 피해 경험의 조절효과)

  • Park, Won-Ju
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.353-361
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to examine the effects of rejection sensitivity on depression and anxiety, and the moderating effects of school violence victimization experiences on the relationships between rejection sensitivity and both anxiety and depression. Based on the results, we suggested a method of screening soldiers at high risk of depression and anxiety and interventions for their psychological adaptation. The data about anxiety, depression, rejection sensitivity, and school violence victimization experiences was collected from 126 airmen in S city, South Korea. To test the moderation effects, multiple regression analyses were conducted in which the rejection sensitivity, anxiety, school violence victimization experiences and their interaction terms were hierarchically entered. The moderation of school violence victimization experiences was found in the relationship between rejection sensitivity and school violence victimization experiences. The specific interaction patterns in each of these significant interaction effects were examined. Finally, the importance of school violence victimization experiences as a high-risk factor in army life and the clinical implication of these findings were discussed.

Association between periodontal disease, number of remaining teeth and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein in Korean adults aged 40 and older: Based on data from 2015 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (한국 40세 이상 성인의 치주질환, 잔존 치아 수와 고감도 C-반응성 단백의 연관성: 2015 국민건강영양조사 제6기 자료)

  • Cho, Youn-Young
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.303-312
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between periodontal disease, number of remaining teeth with high-sensitivity C-Reactive protein in Korean adults aged 40 and older. Methods: The study used the Sixth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES VI-3), 2015. The study sample consisted of 3,883 aged 40 years or older who had completed the health survey and the health examination. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the odds ratios of high-sensitivity C-Reactive protein by periodontal disease and number of remaining teeth, adjusting for demographic characteristics, chronic diseases and oral health behavior-related variables. Results: When the demographic and chronic diseases were adjusted, the risk of high-sensitivity C-Reactive protein (hs-CRP) average 1.23 mg/L or higher was 1.36 times higher in patients with periodontal disease between the ages of 40 and 49, but it was not significant (OR=1.36; 95% CI=0.82-2.23). In addition, in the group of 0~23 remaining teeth aged 40~49 years, the risk of higher than the average 1.23 mg/L of high-sensitivity C-Reactive protein was 2.03 times higher (OR=2.03; 95% CI=1.10-3.74), and 1.49 times higher in 60~69 years (OR=1.07; 95% CI=1.04-2.76). Conclusions: This study found that periodontal disease and tooth loss in Korean adults aged 40 and older was significantly associated with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein.

Pre-Operative Evaluation of Ovarian Tumors by Risk of Malignancy Index, CA125 and Ultrasound

  • Arun-Muthuvel, Veluswamy;Jaya, Vijayaraghavan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.2929-2932
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic performances of risk of malignancy index (RMI), CA-125 and ultrasound score in differentiating between benign and borderline or malignant ovarian tumors and find the best diagnostic test for referral of suspected malignant ovarian cases to gynaecologic oncologists. Materials and Methods: This prospective study covered 467 women with pelvic tumors scheduled for surgery at our hospital between July 2011 and July 2013. The RMI was obtained from ultrasound score, CA125 and menopausal status. The diagnostic values of each parameter and the RMI were determined and compared using Statistical Packages for Social Sciences Version 14.0.1. Results: In our study, 61% of ovarian tumors were malignant in the post-menopausal age group. RMI with a cut-off 150 had sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 97% in detecting ovarian cancer. CA-125>30 had a sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 83%. An ultrasound score more than 2 had a sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 81%. RMI had the least false malignant cases thus avoiding unnecessary laparotomies. Ultrasound when used individually had the best sensitivity but poor specificity. Conclusions: Our study has demonstrated the RMI to be an easy, simple and applicable method in the primary evaluation of patients with pelvic masses. It can be used to refer suspected malignant patients to be operated by a gynaecologic oncologist. Other models of preoperative evaluation should be developed to improve the detection of early stage invasive, borderline and non-epithelial ovarian cancers.

Identification of Impact Factors in Ship-to-Ship Mooring Through Sensitivity Analysis

  • Lee, Sang-Won;Lee, Hyeong-Tak;Kim, Dae-Gun;Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.310-319
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    • 2019
  • With the recent increase in the volume of liquid cargo transportation, there is a need for STS( Ship To Ship) globally. In the case of the STS mooring, the safety assessment should be conducted according to other criteria because mooring is different from the general mooring at the quay, but there is no separate standard in Korea. Thus in this study, STS mooring simulation and sensitivity analysis using OPTIMOOR program, the numerical analysis program, was conducted to identify the characteristics of the STS mooring. The target sea modeled the Yeosu port anchorage in Korea and the target ship was selected as the case of VLCC (Very Large Crude Oil Carrier)-VLCC. Through the numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis, the characteristics of STS mooring were identified. Also based on these results, we focused on establishing the standard for STS mooring safety assessment. Numerical simulation results show that the STS mooring safety can be changed according to a ship's cargo loading condition, pre-tension of mooring line, sea depth, encounter angle with the weather, and the weather condition. Additionally, the risk matrix is prepared to establish the safe external force range in the corresponding sea area. This result can be used to understand the mooring characteristics of STS and contribute to the revision of mooring safety assessment criteria.

A Stochastic Model to Quantify the Risk of Introduction of Abalone Herpes-like Virus Through Import of Abalones (활 전복 수입에 의한 전복허피스바이러스감염증 (abalone herpes-like virus) 유입 위험평가)

  • Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.40-45
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    • 2014
  • Abalone herpes-like virus (AbHV) is a fatal disease of abalones that impose severe economic impacts on the industry of infected regions due to high mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of introducing AbHV into Korea through the importation of live abalones for human consumption by import risk analysis (IRA). Monte Carlo simulation models were developed to provide estimates of the probability that a ton of imported abalone contains at least one AbHV-infected individual, using historical trade data and relevant literatures. A sensitivity analysis with 5,000 iterations was also conducted to determine the extent to which input parameters affect the outcome of the model. Although many uncertainties were present in the data, the results indicated that, if 5,000 tons of abalone were imported from a hypothetical exporting country with low prevalence of AbHV (model 1), there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 4,816 of those tons (96.3%), while there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 100% of those tons imported from country with high prevalence (model 2). Sensitivity analysis indicated that for model 1, prevalence was the strongest influence factor on the predicted number of infections. For model 2, background mortality and washing to reduce the risk of surface contamination during processing were the major contributing factors. Risk management strategies need to be enforced to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in that at least one infected abalone would remain in a consignment from country even with a low prevalence of AbHV infection. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the development of AbHV management program, and with more accurate data this IRA model will aid science-based decision-making on mitigation strategies to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in Korea.

Application of Decision Tree to Classify Fall Risk Using Inertial Measurement Unit Sensor Data and Clinical Measurements

  • Junwoo Park;Jongwon Choi;Seyoung Lee;Kitaek Lim;Woochol Joseph Choi
    • Physical Therapy Korea
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.102-109
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    • 2023
  • Background: While efforts have been made to differentiate fall risk in older adults using wearable devices and clinical methodologies, technologies are still infancy. We applied a decision tree (DT) algorithm using inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensor data and clinical measurements to generate high performance classification models of fall risk of older adults. Objects: This study aims to develop a classification model of fall risk using IMU data and clinical measurements in older adults. Methods: Twenty-six older adults were assessed and categorized into high and low fall risk groups. IMU sensor data were obtained while walking from each group, and features were extracted to be used for a DT algorithm with the Gini index (DT1) and the Entropy index (DT2), which generated classification models to differentiate high and low fall risk groups. Model's performance was compared and presented with accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity were 77.8%, 80.0%, and 66.7%, respectively, for DT1; and 72.2%, 91.7%, and 33.3%, respectively, for DT2. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the fall risk classification using IMU sensor data obtained during gait has potentials to be developed for practical use. Different machine learning techniques involving larger data set should be warranted for future research and development.

Ship Collision Risk Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis for Sea-crossing Bridges (해상교량에 대한 선박충돌 위험도 평가 및 민감도 분석)

  • Bae, Yong Gwi;Lee, Seong Lo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.1753-1763
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    • 2013
  • In the design phase of sea-crossing bridge projects, ship collision problem is mostly participated in decision of substructure section and it would be performed by risk assessment and impact simulations. Ship collision risk is assessed by probability model which is similar to method II of Guide Specification and Commentary for Vessel Collision Design of Highway Bridge(AASHTO, 2009). However, several factors used in the applicable code are limited to inland waterways or have many local characteristics. Accordingly, it should be needed judgement of engineer or referred to related criteria, research finding. In this study risk assessment for In-cheon bridge and review of existing substructure's impact risk and resistance capacity are performed using the 2010's ship passage data. And then consideration regarding to presumption and applied instance of factors needed for risk assessment and related research findings are performed on the basis of AASHTO Guide's Method. As a result of study, adequate variable region of factors needed for risk assessment is defined and sensitivity analysis for appropriate region is performed. Consequently, factors that should be applied carefully or needed for direct analysis of local data are confirmed. This research could be fundamental material to risk assessment related to design for sea-crossing bridge taken into account ship collision.

Predictive Validity of the Braden Scale for Pressure Ulcer Risk: A Meta-analysis (Braden 욕창위험사정도구의 예측 타당도 메타분석)

  • Park, Seong-Hi;Park, Yu-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.595-607
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The Braden Scale is one of the most intensively studied risk assessment scales used in identifying the risk of developing pressure sore. However, not all studies show that the predictive validity of this scale is sufficient. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Braden Scale for predicting pressure ulcer development. Methods: Articles published 1946 and 2013 from periodicals indexed in Ovid Medline, Embase, CINAHL, KoreaMed, NDSL and other databases were selected, using the following keywords: 'pressure ulcer'. The QUADAS-II was applied to assess the internal validity of the diagnostic studies. Selected studies were analyzed using meta-analysis with MetaDisc 1.4. Results: Thirty-eight diagnostic studies with high methodological quality, involving 17,934 patients, were included. Results of the meta-analysis showed that the pooled sensitivity and specificity of the Braden Scale were 0.74 (95% CI: 0.72-0.76), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74-0.76) respectively. However the predictive validity of the Braden Scale has limitation because there was high heterogeneity between studies. Conclusion: The Braden Scale's predictive validity of risk for pressure ulcer is interpreted as at a moderate level. However there is a limitation to the interpretation of the results, because of high heterogeneity among the studies.

Risk-informed approach to the safety improvement of the reactor protection system of the AGN-201K research reactor

  • Ahmed, Ibrahim;Zio, Enrico;Heo, Gyunyoung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.764-775
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    • 2020
  • Periodic safety reviews (PSRs) are conducted on operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) and have been mandated also for research reactors in Korea, in response to the Fukushima accident. One safety review tool, the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aims to identify weaknesses in the design and operation of the research reactor, and to evaluate and compare possible safety improvements. However, the PSA for research reactors is difficult due to scarce data availability. An important element in the analysis of research reactors is the reactor protection system (RPS), with its functionality and importance. In this view, we consider that of the AGN-201K, a zero-power reactor without forced decay heat removal systems, to demonstrate a risk-informed safety improvement study. By incorporating risk- and safety-significance importance measures, and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, the proposed method identifies critical components in the RPS reliability model, systematically proposes potential safety improvements and ranks them to assist in the decision-making process.