• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Sensitivity

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Comparative Evaluation of the Risk of Malignancy Index Scoring Systems (1-4) Used in Differential Diagnosis of Adnexal Masses

  • Ozbay, Pelin Ozun;Ekinci, Tekin;Caltekin, Melike Demir;Yilmaz, Hasan Taylan;Temur, Muzaffer;Yilmaz, Ozgur;Uysal, Selda;Demirel, Emine;Kelekci, Sefa
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.345-349
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    • 2015
  • Background: To determine the cut-off values of the preoperative risk of malignancy index (RMI) used in differentiating benign or malignant adnexal masses and to determine their significance in differential diagnosis by comparison of different systems. Materials and Methods: 191 operated women were assessed retrospectively. RMI of 1, 2, 3 and 4; cut-off values for an effective benign or malignant differentiation together with sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values were calculated. Results: Cut-off value for RMI 1 was found to be 250; there was significant (p<0.001) compatibility at this level with sensitivity of 60%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 75%, specificity of 93%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 88% and an overall compliance rate of 85%. When RMI 2 and 3 was obtained with a cut-off value of 200, there was significant (p<0.001) compatibility at this level for RMI 2 with sensitivity of 67%, PPV of 67%, specificity of 89%, NPV of 89%, histopathologic correlation of 84% while RMI 3 had significant (p<0.001) compatibility at the same level with sensitivity of 63%, PPV of 69%, specificity of 91%, NPV of 88% and a histopathologic correlation of 84%. Significant (p<0.001) compatibility for RMI 4 with a sensitivity of 67%, PPV of 73%, specificity of 92%, NPV of 89% and a histopathologic correlation of 86% was obtained at the cut-off level 400. Conclusions: RMI have a significant predictability in differentiating benign and malignant adnexal masses, thus can effectively be used in clinical practice.

Comparative study of Ecological Risk Assessment : Deriving Soil Ecological Criteria (토양생태계 위해성평가기법 비교연구: 토양생태준거치 산정을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Woo-Mi;Kim, Shin Woong;Jeong, Seung-Woo;An, Youn-Joo
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of ecological risk assessment in soil ecosystem is to protect ecological receptors and to provide a scheme of efficient management for soil contaminants. Developed countries have already prepared the methodologies of ecological risk assessment by considering their soil properties, land use, and ecological receptors. In this study, we compared the soil ecological risk assessment processes in the similarity and differences in methodology. Four countries, except for USA, adjusted the toxicological data for ecological risk assessment, based on their representative soil properties because the soil properties affect toxic effects to ecological receptors. The soil ecological risk assessment methodology of Netherlands and UK was based on 'Technical guidance document on risk assessment (TGD)' of European Chemical Bureau (ECB). Australia, USA, and Canada developed their autonomous methodology. In the Netherlands, UK, Australia, and Canada, they employed the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) approach if sufficient toxicity data are available. The USA determined the ecological soil screening level by obtaining the geometric mean of toxicological data for three species. Furthermore, all countries consider secondary poisoning in their soil ecological risk assessment. The latest risk assessment methodology of soil ecosystem that this study investigated can be used to explore what Korea needs to develop the Korean ecological risk assessment methodology of soil ecosystem in the future.

The Sensitivity Comparison of Each Risk Factors Analysis on Renewable Energy and Other Generating Technologies (신재생 에너지와 기존 발전기술과의 투자리스크 요인별 민감도 비교)

  • Koh, Kyung-Ho;Park, Se-Ik
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.10-17
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    • 2011
  • Recently, electricity industry is facing high market uncertainty which has ever had and which increase risks in power market. In this study, we analyze risk factors such as discount rates, initial investment (overnight cost), plant factor, fuel cost, carbon price, etc, for the perspective of investor. For the analysis of risk factors, we used LCOE method. The results of this study show that renewable energy is more affected by plant factor and overnight cost than other risk factors. First, Renewable energy has higher proportion of overnight cost in the total investment than that of other technologies. Second, renewable energy is free of fuel cost and carbon price so plant factor is the most important factor, in other words, competitiveness of renewable energy depends on plant factor. Furthermore, we conducted economic feasibility of wind power and PV in domestic case study. The minimum requirement condition to get profitability is that plant factor 15% and overnight cost \6,000,000/kW and 26%, \2,200,000/kW for PV and Wind Power, respectively.

Assessment Models of Political Risk and the Sensitivity Analysis (정치적 위험의 평가모형과 민감도분석)

  • Moon, Chang-Kuen;Yim, Chun-Ho
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.105-122
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    • 2007
  • This paper identifies the dimensions of political risk on the basis of the classification between risk and uncertainties to implement the precise identification and assessment of the various types of political risk and develop the sound assessment model to accomplish their practical applications. This paper shows the concrete and detailed processes of deriving the assessment models and applying them with the microsoft excel spreadsheet, confirms the result of Butler and Joaquin(1998), and presents the methods of identifying the various combination effects of the political risk impact and the covariance relationship with the market portfolio return through the sensitivity analysis.

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Risk and Sensitivity Analysis during the Low Power and Shutdown Operation of the 1,500MW Advanced Power Reactor (1,500MW대형원전 정지/저출력 안전성향상을 위한 설계개선안 및 민감도 분석)

  • Moon, Ho Rim;Han, Deok Sung;Kim, Jae Kab;Lee, Sang Won;Lim, Hak Kyu
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2019
  • An 1,500MW advanced power reactor required the standard design approval by a Korean regulatory body in 2014. The reactor has been designed to have a 4-train independent safety concept and a passive auxiliary feedwater system (PAFS). The full power risk or core damage frequency (CDF) of 1,500MW advanced power reactor has been reduced more than that of APR1400. However, the risk during the low power and shutdown (LPSD) operation should be reduced because CDF of LPSD is about 4.7 times higher than that of internal full power. The purpose of paper is to analysis design alternatives to reduce risk during the LPSD. This paper suggests design alternatives to reduce risk and presents sensitivity analysis results.

The Default Risk of the Research Funding with Uncertain Variable in South Korea, Along with the Greeks (옵션민감도를 고려한 기술자금의 경제적 가치와 실패확률)

  • Sim, Jaehun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2021
  • As a nation experiencing rapid economic growth, South Korea and its government have made a continuous effort toward efficient research investments to achieve transformation of the Korean industry for the fourth industrial revolution. To achieve the maximum effectiveness of the research investments, it is necessary to evaluate its funding's worth and default risk. Thus, incorporating the concepts of the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the Greeks, this study develops a default-risk evaluation model in the foundation of a system dynamics methodology. By utilizing the proposed model, this study estimates the monetary worth and the default risks of research funding in the public and private sectors of Information and Communication technologies, along with the sensitivity of the R&D economic worth of research funding to changes in a given parameter. This study finds that the public sector has more potential than the private sector in terms of monetary worth and that the default risks of three types of research funding are relatively high. Through a sensitivity analysis, the results indicate that uncertainty in volatility, operation period, and a risk-free interest rate has trivial impacts on the monetary worth of research funding, while volatility has large impacts on the default risk among the uncertain factors.

Generation of Corporate risk Contents using Financial Data (국제경쟁력 강화를 위한 중소규모기업 부실예측 콘텐츠)

  • Kim, Young-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.951-953
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    • 2007
  • Generation of Corporate risk Contents using Financial Data The purpose of this paper is to capture risk profiles of smaller-sized Korean firms vis-$\grave{a}$-vis larger-sized firms during the Asian financial crisis. For this purpose, risk profiles are provided by estimating expected default risks and by tracking how these have changed during this period with respect to their magnitude, volatility, and sensitivity measures. Methodology used in this study employs the Black-Scholes-Merton model for producing estimates of default risks. And the conventional trans-log function is utilized for obtaining sensitivity measures of the estimated default risks. According to empirical evidence obtained here, it is revealed that contractions of corporate loans associated with IMF austerity policy was the main factor responsible for the drastic change in the default risk profile of Korean firms after occurrence of the Asian financial crisis.

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Evaluation of a Fall Risk Assessment Tool to Establish Continuous Quality Improvement Process for Inpatients' Falls (낙상예방 활동의 지속적 질 관리 프로세스 확립을 위한 위험 사정도구 평가)

  • Park, Ihn-Sook;Cho, In-Sook;Kim, Eun-Man;Kim, Min-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.484-492
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: The aims of study were; (1) to evaluate the validity and sensitivity of a fall-risk assessment tool, and (2) to establish continuous quality improvement (CQI) methods to monitor the effective use of the risk assessment tool. Methods: A retrospective case-control cohort design was used. Analysis was conducted for 90 admissions as cases and 3,716 as controls during the 2006 and 2007 calendar years was conducted. Fallers were identified from the hospital’s Accident Reporting System, and non-fallers were selected by randomized selection. Accuracy estimates, sensitivity analysis and logistic regression were used. Results: At the lower cutoff score of one, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 82.2%, 19.3%, 0.03%, and 96.9%, respectively. The area under the ROC was 0.60 implying poor prediction. Logistic regression analysis showed that five out of nine constitutional items; age, history of falls, gait problems, and confusion were significantly associated with falls. Based on these results, we suggested a tailored falls CQI process with specific indexes. Conclusion: The fall-risk assessment tool was found to need considerable reviews for its validity and usage problems in practice. It is also necessary to develop protocols for use and identify strategies that reflect changes in patient conditions during hospital stay.

The Effects of Pavement Markings on High-risk Drivers' Speeds (사고위험성이 높은 운전자에 대한 노면표시 효과 연구)

  • Lee, Jong Hak;Noh, Kwan Sub;Kim, Jong Min;Choi, Jai-Sung
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2013
  • PURPOSES: Speeding is often the primary contributor to fatal crashes. Surprisingly, driving behaviors are indirectly affected by personal factors such as law-abidance, risk sensitivity, and situational adaptability. This research aims to verify the effectiveness of pavement markings at reducing the speeds of high-risk drivers. The purpose of this study is to establish how drivers (including law-abiding or law-breaking, high-risk or low-risk) react to different pavement markings in a driving simulator. METHODS: The five different pavement markings were selected from markings used in other nations. The forty-two drivers were then surveyed, via questionnaires, and placed into the corresponding groups. Finally, statistical analysis was conducted to determine the extent of speed reduction for each pavement marking. RESULTS: Higher speeds were linked to the high-risk drivers. Furthermore, after analysis of the mean difference of average speeds by pavement marking, it was determined that Dragon's Teeth had the greatest speed reducing effect on these drivers. CONCLUSIONS: Perceptual countermeasures are unlikely to strongly affect high-risk drivers' perception of speed on the curves. This statistically demonstrates that Dragon's Teeth have a subtle effect on reducing speeds in the driving simulator. This study's significance lies in the improved understanding of high-risk drivers in terms of road facilities. It approaches the effects of various patterns of pavement markings for high-risk drivers.