• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.123-129
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• 2009

The global financial crisis resulting from sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States, beginning in 2007, has had dealt a blow to domestic economy. The economic downturn, coupled with a large number of apartments remaining unsold has resulted in contracted investment sentiment of the builders. Thus it's difficult to even implement the business, unless the investment project is thoroughly verified as well as the accurate profitability is granted. Viewing the current situation, forecasting and evaluating the business profitability is more than important today. The study was planned to identify the factors influencing the business success and to evaluate the sensitivity, relative risk of each factor was measured, and the scope of the study was limited to the commercial buildings among other buildings except apartment buildings. Hence, the study was aimed to analyze the factors affecting the business and the sensitivity so as to be able to systematically materialize the risk management of the commercial buildings. The outcome of the study is expected to serve the useful data in analyzing the business profitability and implementing the investment projects as well.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.11-21
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• 2022

가뭄은 장기간에 걸쳐 광범위하게 발생하며, 사회·경제적으로도 큰 피해를 발생시킨다. 가뭄 위험도는 기상학적 및 수문학적 요소와 더불어 사회적, 환경적, 물리적 및 경제적 요소로 이루어져 있기 때문에, 가뭄 위험도에 대한 영향을 정량적으로 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 충청북도를 대상으로 구조방정식모형을 이용하여 가뭄 노출성, 취약성, 대응능력 및 위험도 사이의 영향 관계를 파악하고, 베이지안 네트워크를 적용하여 가뭄 위험도에 대한 영향을 평가하였다. 또한, 가뭄 위험도 평가 인자별 민감도 분석을 통해 가뭄 위험도의 변화 정도를 분석하였다. 그 결과 과거 가뭄 위험도가 가장 큰 지역은 충주시로, 노출성 및 대응능력을 변화시켰을 때에도 가장 크게 산정되었다. 다만, 취약성을 변화시켰을 때에는 음성군이 위험도가 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다. 위험도에 대한 영향인자들의 민감도 분석을 실시한 결과 증평군이 민감도가 가장 컸으며, 노출성, 취약성 및 대응능력에서 제천시, 음성군, 옥천군이 민감도가 크게 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 통해 가뭄 위험도 및 가뭄 위험도에 대한 영향인자를 확인하였으며, 영향인자별 지역의 특성을 고려한 가뭄 대책 마련이 가능하다.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.205-215
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• 2011

Ozone ($O_3$) is a main component of photochemical oxidants and a phytotoxic air pollutant. Although the current levels of tropospheric $O_3$ in East Asia could adversely affect productivity of forest tree species, risk assessments of $O_3$ impact were limited. In this paper, we summarize the methodology of risk assessment of $O_3$ on forest tree species based on our two previous studies, risk assessments of $O_3$ impact on the growth of Fagus crenata by Watanabe et al. (2012) and on the annual carbon absorption of three representative conifers, Cryptomeria japonica, Pinus densiflora and Larix kaempferi by Watanabe et al. (2010). $O_3$ sensitivity of each tree species obtained from an experimental study, $O_3$ exposure and atmospheric N deposition based on field monitoring and vegetation survey were integrated by geographic information system method. Based on the results, we conclude that the area with high risk of $O_3$ impact does not necessarily correspond to the area with high $O_3$ exposure. The varieties of tree habitat, tree sensitivity to $O_3$ and annual carbon absorption among the tree species, and N deposition-induced change in the $O_3$ sensitivity of F. crenata are raised as the factors of discordance between areas with high risk and those with high $O_3$ exposure. In the last part of this paper, we discuss the present uncertainty and perspectives of risk assessment for the future studies on the impact of $O_3$ on forest tree species in East Asia.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 2th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.498-508
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• 2007

The Build-Transfer-Lease (BTL) projects have rapidly increased under the Government support during recent years. This paper presents the risk analysis of factors affecting BTL projects in the initial phase. This study resulted in 10 significant risk factors influencing on each phase of BTL projects and then factors were grouped into each phase. The sensitivity analysis was also performed to identify risk factors with more significant influence on BTL projects. The results may useful to practitioners in order to cope with risks in initial phase of BTL projects. The paper resulted in the distribution of risks to project parties, thus it can be used as standards for risk assignment to competent authorities and private enterprises of BTL projects.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2008

In this minireview we focus on how males may exploit female's sensitivity to predation risk in the context of mating. It has been shown in studies on guppies and jumping spiders that in response to altered female behaviors, which are adaptations to the unfavorable environment and a consequence of females' higher sensitivity to predator's presence as well as females' higher predation risk, males can adopt condition-dependent mating tactics. It appears that in such cases males do not modify their reproductive behavior directly in response to their own perception of predation risk, but indirectly in response to changes in female behavior induced by predator presence. It has also been recently shown in crabs that males can exploit female behavior by creating safer habitat spots, which increases the male mating success. Hence all the evidence suggests that males not only respond to female sensitivity to the natural variation in predation risk, but that males can also exploit female behavior by altering the environment. As a logical extension of these findings, we present a hypothesis that in certain conditions males can manipulate the environment in order to increase the predation risk and to induce female behaviors that enhance the male's mating success with the increased predation risk. We propose that such a manipulation to increase predation risk is expected to evolve in males of species with a strong sexual conflict and female-biased predation risk. Although empirical evidence has not been yet shown, initial observations in a water strider species in Korea, Gerris gracilicornis, seem to support this hypothesis.

• 성인간호학회지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.29-38
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• 2015

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to validate fall risk assessment scales among hospitalized adult patients in South Korea using the electronic medical records by comparing sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values of Morse Fall Scale (MFS), Bobath Memorial Hospital Fall Risk Assessment Scale (BMFRAS), and Johns Hopkins Hospital Fall Risk Assessment tool (JHFRAT). Methods: A total of 120 patients who experienced fall episodes during their hospitalization from June 2010 to December 2013 was categorized into the fall group. Another 120 patients, who didn't experience fall episodes with age, sex, clinical departments, and the type of wards matched with the fall group, were categorized to the comparison group. Data were analyzed for the comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the area under the curve of the three tools. Results: MFS at a cut-off score of 48 had .806 for ROC curves, 76.7% for sensitivity, 77.5% for specificity, 77.3% for positive predictive value, and 76.9% for negative predictive value, which were the highest values among the three fall assessment scales. Conclusion: The MFS with the highest score and the highest discrimination was evaluated to be suitable and reasonable for predicting falls of inpatients in med-surg units of university hospitals.

• 한국전문물리치료학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.63-70
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• 2016

Background: The Pediatric Balance Scale (PBS) and the Fullerton Advanced Balance (FAB) scale were used to assess balance function in patients with balance problem. These multidimensional clinical balance scales provide information about potential risk factors for falls. Objects: The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the predictive properties of the PBS and FAB scales relative to fall risk in children with cerebral palsy (CP) using a receiver operating characteristic analysis. Methods: In total, 49 children with CP (boy=21, girl=28) who were diagnosed with level 1 or 2 according to the Gross Motor Function Classification System participated in this study. The PBS and FAB were performed, and verified cut-off score, sensitivity, specificity, and the area of under the curve (AUC). Results: In this study, the PBS scale was as a predictive measure of fall risk, but the FAB was not significant in children with CP. A cut-off score of 45.5 points provided optimal sensitivity of .90 and specificity of .69 on the PBS, and a cut-off score of 21.5 points provided optimal sensitivity of .90 and specificity of .62 on the FAB. Both scales showed moderately accurate of AUC with .79 and .76, respectively. Conclusion: The PBS is a useful screening tool for predicting fall risk in children with cerebral palsy, and those who score 45.5 or lower indicate a high risk for falls and are in need of balance intervention.

• 한국의료질향상학회지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.27-40
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• 2016

Purpose: Globally, falls are a major public health problem. The study aimed to evaluate the predictive validity of the Timed Up and Go test (TUGT) as a screening tool for fall risk. Methods: An electronic search was performed Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochran Library, KoreaMed and the National Digital Science Library and other databases, using the following keywords: 'fall', 'fall risk assessment', 'fall screening', 'mobility scale', and 'risk assessment tool'. The QUADAS-II was applied to assess the internal validity of the diagnostic studies. Thirteen studies were analyzed using meta-analysis with MetaDisc 1.4. Results: The selected 13 studies reporting predictive validity of TUGT of fall risks were meta-analyzed with a sample size of 1004 with high methodological quality. Overall predictive validity of TGUT was as follows. The pooled sensitivity 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.77), pooled specificity 0.58 (95% CI: 0.54-0.63) and sROC AUC was 0.75 respectively. Heterogeneity among studies was a moderate level in sensitivity. Conclusion: The TGUT's predictive validity for fall risk is at a moderate level. Although there is a limit to interpret the results for heterogeneity between the literature, TGUT is an appropriate tool to apply to all patients at a potential risk of accidental fall in a hospital or long-term care facility.

• Child Health Nursing Research
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.56-64
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• 2019

Purpose: This study was conducted to obtain data for the development of an effective fall risk assessment tool for pediatric inpatients through a systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic test accuracy of existing scales. Methods: A literature search using Medline, Science Direct, CINAHL, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library was performed between March 1 and 31, 2018. Of 890 identified papers, 10 were selected for review. Nine were used in the meta-analysis. Stata version 14.0 was used to create forest plots of sensitivity and specificity. A summary receiver operating characteristic curve was used to compare all diagnostic test accuracies. Results: Four studies used the Humpty Dumpty Falls Scale. The most common items included the patient's diagnoses, use of sedative medications, and mobility. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the nine studies were .79 and .36, respectively. Conclusion: Considering the low specificity of the pediatric fall risk assessment scales currently available, there is a need to subdivide scoring categories and to minimize items that are evaluated using nurses' subjective judgment alone. Fall risk assessment scales should be incorporated into the electronic medical record system and an automated scoring system should be developed.

• Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.213-223
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• 2023

Purpose: Pediatric patients in low-income countries are at a high risk of malnutrition. Numerous screening tools have been developed to detect the risk of malnutrition, including the Subjective Global Nutritional Assessment (SGNA), Pediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS), Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Pediatrics (STAMP), and Screening Tool for Risk of Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids). However, anthropometry remains the main tool for assessing malnutrition. We aimed to identify the value of four nutritional screening tools versus anthropometry for evaluating the nutritional status of children. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 1,000 children aged 1-12 years who visited the outpatient clinic of Cairo University Pediatric Hospital. Each participant was evaluated using anthropometric measurements (weight, length/height, and weight for length/height) as well as the PYMS, STAMP, STRONGkids, and SGNA screening tools. The sensitivities and specificities of these four tools were assessed using anthropometry as the gold standard. Results: Of the patients, 1.7% were underweight, 10.2% were wasted, and 35% were stunted. STRONGkids demonstrated the highest sensitivity (79.4%) and a high specificity (80.2%) for detecting malnutrition compared with weight for height, followed by STAMP, which demonstrated lower sensitivity (73.5%) but higher specificity (81.4%). PYMS demonstrated the lowest sensitivity (66.7%) and the highest specificity (93.5%), whereas SAGA demonstrated higher sensitivity (77.5%) and lower specificity (85.4%) than PYMS. Conclusion: The use of nutritional screening tools to evaluate the nutritional status of children is valuable and recommended as a simple and rapid method for identifying the risk of malnutrition in pediatric patients.