• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Rating

Search Result 300, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

Developing the Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Using GIS and Mapping Forest Fire Risks (공간분석에 의한 산불발생확률모형 개발 및 위험지도 작성)

  • An, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Si Young;Won, Myoung Soo;Lee, Myung Bo;Shin, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.7 no.4
    • /
    • pp.57-64
    • /
    • 2004
  • In order to decrease the area damaged by forest fires and to prevent the occurrence of forest fires, the forest fire danger rating system was developed to estimate forest fire risk by means of weather, topography, and forest type. Forest fires occurrence prediction needs to improve continually. Logistic regression and spatial analysis was used in developing the forest fire occurrence probability model. The forest fire danger index in accordance to the probability of forest fire occurrence was used in the classification of forest fire occurrence risk regions.

  • PDF

Depression and Related Risk Factors in the Elderly with a Focused on Health Habits, Mental Health, Chronic Diseases, and Nutrient Intake Status: Data from the 2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (우리나라 노인의 우울증과 관련 요인 - 생활습관, 정신건강, 만성질환 및 영양상태 중심으로 - : 2014 국민건강영양조사 자료)

  • Lee, Hye-Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.169-180
    • /
    • 2018
  • Depression is a major health problem that can lead to mortality. This study was conducted to assess the risk factors associated with depression in a group aged over 65 years by analyzing nationally representative Korean survey data. A total of 1,209 subjects were analyzed among the participants of the 2014 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Statistical methods for a complex sample were applied by using SPSS program(windows ver. 24.0). Depression assessments were carried out by using the 9-item depression module of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). Depression ($PHQ-9{\geq}5$) was more frequently found in females (33.2%) compared to males (16.1%). However, there was no evidence suggesting that characteristics such as residence area, income level and age, except for educational level, were related with depression. The results of the logistic regression analysis showed that i) health habits such as smoking (OR: 2.26) and lack of aerobic physical activity (OR: 1.62), ii) mental health status such as bad self-rating of health status (OR: 4.30), more stress (OR: 8.31), and bad health-related quality of life (by EQ_5D, OR: 3.41), iii) chronic diseases such as obesity (OR: 0.66), hypercholesterolemia (OR: 1.57), anemia (OR: 1.91), and iv) low intake of energy (OR: 1.84) and calcium (OR: 1.71) were significantly associated with depression. This study suggests that certain characteristics of health habits, mental health status, chronic diseases and nutrient intake may be associated with depression. Prospective research on long-term control is needed to establish causal connections among those factors with depression.

The Relationships among Chemotherapy-Induced Nausea and Vomiting (CINV), Non-Pharmacological Coping Methods, and Nutritional Status in Patients with Gynecologic Cancer (부인암 환자의 항암화학요법으로 인한 오심과 구토, 비약물적 대처방법과 영양상태간의 관계)

  • Lee, Haerim;ChoiKwon, Smi
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
    • /
    • v.47 no.6
    • /
    • pp.731-743
    • /
    • 2017
  • Purpose: Chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) can cause severe malnutrition. However, relationships between CINV levels, non-pharmacological coping methods, and nutritional status of female cancer patients have rarely been investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze their relationships in gynecologic cancer patients. Methods: Participants receiving a highly and moderately emetogenic chemotherapy were recruited. The level of CINV was assessed using a numeric rating scale. Coping methods were determined using multiple-choice self-report questionnaires and categorized into seven types for statistical analysis. Nutritional status was evaluated using biochemical and anthropometric parameters. Results: Among all the 485 patients, 200 eligible inpatients were included. Despite the administration of prophylactic antiemetics, 157 patients (78.5%) still experienced CINV, and several used nonmedically recommended coping methods, such as just enduring the symptom or rejecting food intake. A total of 181 patients (90.5%) had nutritional disorders. Although the level of CINV was indirectly related to the occurrence of nutritional disorders, patients who rejected food (${\beta}=1.57$, p=.023) and did not use physical measures (${\beta}=-1.23$, p=.041) as coping methods were under the high risk of nutritional disorders. Conclusion: Korean gynecologic cancer patients had high levels of CINV and were at high risk of nutritional disorders, which may be related to the use of nonscientific coping methods, possibly due to cultural backgrounds and lack of proper nutritional program. Therefore, developing a culturally appropriate educational program for the cancer patients with CINV is urgently needed.

Risk and protective factors affecting sensory recovery after breast reconstruction

  • Bae, Jae Young;Shin, Ha Young;Song, Seung Yong;Lee, Dong Won
    • Archives of Plastic Surgery
    • /
    • v.48 no.1
    • /
    • pp.26-32
    • /
    • 2021
  • Background Although loss of sensation in patients with breast cancer after mastectomy followed by breast reconstruction is an important factor affecting patients' quality of life, the mechanism of sensory recovery is still unclear. Our study aimed to identify variables that affect sensory recovery, especially pain, in reconstructed breasts. Methods All patients with breast cancer who underwent mastectomy followed by immediate breast reconstruction, including nipple reconstruction or areolar tattooing, were included in this study. Sensation was evaluated in the nipple as an endpoint of sensation recovery of the whole breast. Patients rated pain severity using a 3-point verbal rating scale (VRS): grade 0, no pain; grade 1, mild to moderate pain; and grade 2, severe pain. The VRS was assessed by a single experienced plastic surgeon. Results In the univariate analysis, the odds ratio (OR) for sensation recovery was 0.951 for age (P=0.014), 0.803 for body mass index (P=0.001), 0.996 for breast volume before surgery (P=0.001), 0.998 for specimen weight after mastectomy (P=0.040), and 1.066 for the period between mastectomy and sensory assessment (P=0.003). In the multivariate analysis, the variables that showed a significant effect were age (OR, 0.953; P=0.034), the period between mastectomy and sensory assessment (OR, 1.071; P=0.006), and reconstruction using abdominal tissue instead of prosthetic reconstruction (OR, 0.270; P=0.004). Conclusions Based on our results, it can be inferred that aging has a negative impact on the recovery of sensation, breast sensation improves with time after surgery, and the recovery of sensation is better in prosthetic reconstruction.

The Effectiveness and Safety of Acupuncture on Occipital Neuralgia: A Study Protocol for Systematic Review and/or Meta-Analysis

  • Jeong-Hyun Moon;Gyoungeun Park;Jung Eun Jang;Hyo-Rim Jo;Seo-Hyun Park;Won-Suk Sung;Yongjoo Kim;Yoon-Jae Lee;Seung Deok Lee;Eun-Jung Kim
    • Journal of Acupuncture Research
    • /
    • v.40 no.3
    • /
    • pp.238-244
    • /
    • 2023
  • Background: Occipital neuralgia (ON) is an established risk factor for headaches in the posterior cervical region. Several conservative treatments by nerve decompression and pain relief are available for ON, but these treatments have limitations. Acupuncture treatment, which is known to demonstrate analgesic effects, involves various stimulation methods, and several studies have reported their clinical benefit. No recent systematic review (SR) has compared each acupuncture type for ON treatment. Thus, this SR aims to investigate the clinical effectiveness of each acupuncture type for treating ON. Methods: We will identify relevant studies using electronic databases, including EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Korean Studies Information Service System (KISS), Korean Medical Database, KoreaMed, and National Digital Science Library (NDSL) from the inception until August 2023. The primary outcome will include the numerical change of pain symptoms (visual analog scale and numerical rating scale) and effective rate. Safety and secondary outcomes will include adverse events and quality of life. We will compare the conservative treatment with the acupuncture treatment using network meta-analysis. The Cochrane Collaboration "risk of bias" tools will be used to assess the quality of included trials. The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation will be used to examine the evidence level. Conclusion: This study will provide clinical evidence of several acupuncture types for ON and help clinicians decide on the best.

Managing Mental Health during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Recommendations from the Korean Medicine Mental Health Center

  • Hyo-Weon Suh;Sunggyu Hong;Hyun Woo Lee;Seok-In Yoon;Misun Lee;Sun-Yong Chung;Jong Woo Kim
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
    • /
    • v.43 no.4
    • /
    • pp.102-130
    • /
    • 2022
  • Objectives: The persistence and unpredictability of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and new measures to prevent direct medical intervention (e.g., social distancing and quarantine) have induced various psychological symptoms and disorders that require self-treatment approaches and integrative treatment interventions. To address these issues, the Korean Medicine Mental Health (KMMH) center developed a field manual by reviewing previous literature and preexisting manuals. Methods: The working group of the KMMH center conducted a keyword search in PubMed in June 2021 using "COVID-19" and "SARS-CoV-2". Review articles were examined using the following filters: "review," "systematic review," and "meta-analysis." We conducted a narrative review of the retrieved articles and extracted content relevant to previous manuals. We then created a treatment algorithm and recommendations by referring to the results of the review. Results: During the initial assessment, subjective symptom severity was measured using a numerical rating scale, and patients were classified as low- or moderate-high risk. Moderate-high-risk patients should be classified as having either a psychiatric emergency or significant psychiatric condition. The developed manual presents appropriate psychological support for each group based on the following dominant symptoms: tension, anxiety-dominant, anger-dominant, depression-dominant, and somatization. Conclusions: We identified the characteristics of mental health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic and developed a clinical mental health support manual in the field of Korean medicine. When symptoms meet the diagnostic criteria for a mental disorder, doctors of Korean medicine can treat the patients according to the manual for the corresponding disorder.

Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.29-45
    • /
    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

High tendency to the substantial concern on body shape and eating disorders risk of the students majoring Nutrition or Sport Sciences

  • Nergiz-Unal, Reyhan;Bilgic, Pelin;Yabanci, Nurcan
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
    • /
    • v.8 no.6
    • /
    • pp.713-718
    • /
    • 2014
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Studies have indicated that university students majoring in nutrition and dietetics or sport sciences may have more obsessions associated with eating attitudes and body shape perception compared to other disciplines i.e. social sciences. Therefore, this study aimed to assess and compare the risk of eating disorders and body shape perception. MATERIALS/METHODS: Data was collected from 773 undergraduate students at the Departments of Nutrition and Dietetics (NDD) (n = 254), Physical Education and Sports (PESD) (n = 263), and Social Sciences (SOC) (n = 256).A socio-demographic and personal information questionnaire, Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-40), Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ-34), Perceived Figure Rating Scale (FRS) were applied; and body weights and heights were measured. RESULTS: Mean EAT-40 scores showed that, both male and female students of PESD had the highest scores ($7.4{\pm}11.6$) compared with NDD ($14.3{\pm}8.3$) and SOC ($13.0{\pm}6.2$) (P < 0.05). According to EAT-40 classification, high risk in abnormal eating behavior was more in PESD (10.7%) compared to NDD (2.9%) and SOC (0.4%) students (P < 0.05). Students of PESD, who skipped meal, had higher tendency to the risk of eating disorders (P < 0.05). In parallel, body shape perception was found to be marked with higher scores in NDD ($72.0{\pm}28.7$) and PESD ($71.5{\pm}32.8$) compared with SOC ($64.2{\pm}27.5$) students (P < 0.05). Considering BSQ-34 classification, high concern (moderate and marked) for body shape were more in PESD (7.4 %) compared to NDD (5.2%) and SOC (1.9%) students (P < 0.05). The body size judgement via obtained by the FRS scale were generally correlated with BMI. The Body Mass Index levels were in normal range (Mean BMI: $21.9{\pm}2.8kg/m^2$) and generally consistent with FRS data. CONCLUSIONS: Tendency to the abnormal eating behavior and substantial body shape perception were higher in PESD students who have more concern on body shape and were not well-educated about nutrition. In conclusion, substantial concern on physical appearance might affect eating behavior disorders in PESD students.

THE STUDY ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PSYCHOPATHOLOGY AND NEUROLOGICAL FACTORS IN CHRONIC EPILEPTIC CHILDREN (경련 질환 환아의 정신병리와 신경학적 요인과의 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Bung-Nyun;Cho, Soo-Churl;Hwang, Yong-Seung
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.92-109
    • /
    • 1996
  • The objectives of the present study were to provide comprehensive assessment of the impact of epilepsy on the psychological well-being of children with epilepsy and to identify the neurological factors associated with the psychopathology. The participant patients were recruited from the population of children and adolescent aged 7 to 16 attending the OPD of department of pediatric neurology in Seoul National University Hospital in Korea. We exclude mental retardation, pervasive developmental disorder and brain organic pathology. As control group, formal students were chosen and their sex, age, achievement, socioeconomic status were matched to patients. The first author interviewed the children and their family members and obtained the developmental history and family information. We used the following 10 scales for assessing psychological and behavioral problems in patients and their family member. The scales were standardized and their validity and reliability were confirmed before. Parent rating scales : Yale children's inventory, Disruptive behavior disorder scale, Parent's attitude to epilepsy questionnaire, Family environment scale, Symptom check-list-90 revision, Children behavior check-list. Children's self rating scales : Children's depression inventory, Spielberger's state-trait anxiety anxiety, Piers-Harris self-concept inventory and Self-administered Dependency questionnaire for Mother. The result showed the risk factors associated depression were early onset, complex partial seizure, lateralized temporal focal abnormality on EEG, Drug polypharmacy, high seizure frequency and sick factors associated anxiety were old age of patient, lateralized temporal focal abnormality EEG, Drug polypharmacy, high seizure frequency. Also the result of this present study indicated that risk factors associated oppositional defiant disorder, conduct disorder and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder were young age, male, early onset, lateral temporal EEG abnormality and high seizure frequency. According to these results, common risk factors associated psychological and behavioral problems were lateralized EEG temporal abnormality, high seizure frequency in neurological factors.

  • PDF

A Funding Source Decision on Corporate Bond - Private Placements vs Public Bond - (기업의 회사채 조달방법 선택에 관한 연구 - 사모사채와 공모사채 발행을 중심으로 -)

  • An, Seung-Cheol;Lee, Sang-Whi;Jang, Seung-Wook
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.99-123
    • /
    • 2004
  • We focus in this study on incremental financing decisions and estimate a logit model for the probability a firm will choose a private placement over a public bond issue. We hypothesize that information asymmetry, financial risk, agent cost, and proprietary information may affect a firm's choice between public debt and private placements. We find that as the size of firm increases, the probability of choosing a private placement declines significantly. The age of the firm, however, is not a significant factor affecting the firm's choice between public and privately-placed bond. The coefficients on the firm's leverage and non-investment grade dummy are significantly positive, meaning firms with high financial risk and credit risk select private placements. The findings regarding agency-related variables, PER and Tobin's Q, are somewhat complex. We find significant evidence that firms with high PER prefer private placements to public bonds, suggesting that borrowers with options to engage in asset substitution or underinvestment are more likely to choose private placements. The coefficient of Tobin's Q is negative, but not significant, which weakly support the hold-up hypothesis. When we construct an interaction term on the Tobin's Q with a non-investment rating dummy, however, the Tobin's Q interaction term becomes positive and significant. Thus, high Tobin's Q firms with a speculative rating are significantly more likely to choose a private placement, regardless of the potential hold-up problems. The ratio of R&D to sales, proxy for proprietary information, is positively significant. This result can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a role for proprietary information in the debt sourcing decision process for these firms.

  • PDF