• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Model

Search Result 5,506, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

A Empirical Validation of Risk Analysis Model in Electronic Commerce (전자상거래환경에서 위험분석방법론의 타당성에 대한 연구)

  • 김종기;이동호;서창갑
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.61-74
    • /
    • 2004
  • Risk analysis model is systematic and structural process that considers internal security problems and threat factors of the information systems to find optimal level of security control. But, the risk analysis model is just only defined conceptually and there are not so many empirical studies. This research used structural equation modeling(SEM) research methodology with rigorously validated research instrument. Based on results of this study, risk analysis methodology was proved to be practically useful in e-commerce environment. Factors like threat and control were significantly related to risk. In conclusion, the results of this study can be applied to general situation or environment of information security for analyzing and managing the risk and providing new approach to comprehend concept of risk in e-commerce environment.

A Stochastic Model to Quantify the Risk of Introduction of Abalone Herpes-like Virus Through Import of Abalones (활 전복 수입에 의한 전복허피스바이러스감염증 (abalone herpes-like virus) 유입 위험평가)

  • Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
    • /
    • v.31 no.1
    • /
    • pp.40-45
    • /
    • 2014
  • Abalone herpes-like virus (AbHV) is a fatal disease of abalones that impose severe economic impacts on the industry of infected regions due to high mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of introducing AbHV into Korea through the importation of live abalones for human consumption by import risk analysis (IRA). Monte Carlo simulation models were developed to provide estimates of the probability that a ton of imported abalone contains at least one AbHV-infected individual, using historical trade data and relevant literatures. A sensitivity analysis with 5,000 iterations was also conducted to determine the extent to which input parameters affect the outcome of the model. Although many uncertainties were present in the data, the results indicated that, if 5,000 tons of abalone were imported from a hypothetical exporting country with low prevalence of AbHV (model 1), there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 4,816 of those tons (96.3%), while there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 100% of those tons imported from country with high prevalence (model 2). Sensitivity analysis indicated that for model 1, prevalence was the strongest influence factor on the predicted number of infections. For model 2, background mortality and washing to reduce the risk of surface contamination during processing were the major contributing factors. Risk management strategies need to be enforced to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in that at least one infected abalone would remain in a consignment from country even with a low prevalence of AbHV infection. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the development of AbHV management program, and with more accurate data this IRA model will aid science-based decision-making on mitigation strategies to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in Korea.

Analysis Model on Risk Factors of RCB Construction in Nuclear Power Plant (원자력 발전 플랜트 RCB 시공의 리스크 요인에 관한 분석 모델)

  • Shin, Dae-Woong;Shin, Yoonseok;Kim, Gwang-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2014.11a
    • /
    • pp.212-213
    • /
    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest analysis model of RCB construction in nuclear power plant. For the objective, This study drew the risk factors of RCB construction from existing literature. The results of the study proposed analysis model made hierarchy in rebar, form, and concrete work. These will be baseline data for risk management in construction project of nuclear power plant.

  • PDF

Selecting Information Technology Projects in Non-linear Risk/Return Relationships of IT Investment

  • Cho, Wooje;Song, Minseok
    • Journal of Information Technology and Architecture
    • /
    • v.9 no.1
    • /
    • pp.21-31
    • /
    • 2012
  • We focus on the issues of the non-linear return/risk relationship of IT investment and the balance between return and risk of IT portfolio. We develop an IT project selection model by integrating DEA models with Markowitz portfolio selection theory. The project data collected from a Fortune 100 company are used to illustrate the implementation of the model. In addition, computational experiments are conducted to demonstrate the validity of the proposed model.

A Study on the Factors Affecting the Information Systems Security Effectiveness of Password (패스워드의 정보시스템 보안효과에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Ki;Kang, Da-Yeon
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-26
    • /
    • 2008
  • Rapid progress of information technology and widespread use of the personal computers have brought various conveniences in our life. But this also provoked a series of problems such as hacking, malicious programs, illegal exposure of personal information etc. Information security threats are becoming more and more serious due to enhanced connectivity of information systems. Nevertheless, users are not much aware of the severity of the problems. Using appropriate password is supposed to bring out security effects such as preventing misuses and banning illegal users. The purpose of this research is to empirically analyze a research model which includes a series of factors influencing the effectiveness of passwords. The research model incorporates the concept of risk based on information systems risk analysis framework as the core element affecting the selection of passwords by users. The perceived risk is a main factor that influences user's attitude on password security, security awareness, and intention of security behavior. To validate the research model this study relied on questionnaire survey targeted on evening class MBA students. The data was analyzed by AMOS 7.0 which is one of popular tools based on covariance-based structural equation modeling. According to the results of this study, while threat is not related to the risk, information assets and vulnerability are related to the user's awareness of risk. The relationships between the risk, users security awareness, password selection and security effectiveness are all significant. Password exposure may lead to intrusion by hackers, data exposure and destruction. The insignificant relationship between security threat and perceived risk can be explained by user's indetermination of risk exposed due to weak passwords. In other words, information systems users do not consider password exposure as a severe security threat as well as indirect loss caused by inappropriate password. Another plausible explanation is that severity of threat perceived by users may be influenced by individual difference of risk propensity. This study confirms that security vulnerability is positively related to security risk which in turn increases risk of information loss. As the security risk increases so does user's security awareness. Security policies also have positive impact on security awareness. Higher security awareness leads to selection of safer passwords. If users are aware of responsibility of security problems and how to respond to password exposure and to solve security problems of computers, users choose better passwords. All these antecedents influence the effectiveness of passwords. Several implications can be derived from this study. First, this study empirically investigated the effect of user's security awareness on security effectiveness from a point of view based on good password selection practice. Second, information security risk analysis framework is used as a core element of the research model in this study. Risk analysis framework has been used very widely in practice, but very few studies incorporated the framework in the research model and empirically investigated. Third, the research model proposed in this study also focuses on impact of security awareness of information systems users on effectiveness of password from cognitive aspect of information systems users.

A Nonparametric Additive Risk Model Based on Splines

  • Park, Cheol-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.97-105
    • /
    • 2007
  • We consider a nonparametric additive risk model that is based on splines. This model consists of both purely and smoothly nonparametric components. As an estimation method of this model, we use the weighted least square estimation by Huller and Mckeague (1991). We provide an illustrative example as well as a simulation study that compares the performance of our method with the ordinary least square method.

  • PDF

A Nonparametric Additive Risk Model Based On Splines

  • Park, Cheol-Yong
    • 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2006.11a
    • /
    • pp.49-50
    • /
    • 2006
  • We consider a nonparametric additive risk model that are based on splines. This model consists of both purely and smoothly nonparametric components. As an estimation method of this model, we use the weighted least square estimation by Huffer and McKeague (1991). We provide an illustrative example as well as a simulation study that compares the performance of our method with the ordinary least square method.

  • PDF

SIMPLIFIED APPROACH TO VALUATION OF VULNERABLE EXCHANGE OPTION UNDER A REDUCED-FORM MODEL

  • Huh, Jeonggyu;Jeon, Jaegi;Kim, Geonwoo
    • East Asian mathematical journal
    • /
    • v.37 no.1
    • /
    • pp.79-85
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this paper, we investigate the valuation of vulnerable exchange option that has credit risk of option issuer. The reduced-form model is used to model credit risk. We assume that credit event is determined by the jump of the counting process with stochastic intensity, which follows the mean reverting process. We propose a simple approach to derive the closed-form pricing formula of vulnerable exchange option under the reduced-form model and provide the pricing formula as the standard normal cumulative function.

Two Models to Assess Fuzzy Risk of Natural Disaster in China

  • Chongfu, Huang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.16-26
    • /
    • 1997
  • China is one of the few countries where natural disaster strike frequently and cause heavy damage. In this paper, we mathematically develop two models to assess fuzzy risk of natural disaster in China. One is to assess the risk based on database of historical disaster effects by using information diffusion method relevant in fuzzy information analysis. In another model, we give an overview over advanced method to calculate the risk of release, exposure and consequence assessent, where information distribution technique is used to calculate basic fuzzy relationships showing historical experience of natural disasters, and fuzzy approximate inference is employed to study loss risk based on these basic relationships. We also present an examples to show how to use the first model. Result show that the model is effective for natural disaster risk assessment.

  • PDF

A Trust Model in a Distributor-Supplier e-Partnership: The Mediating Role of Perceived Risk

  • Kim, Jin-Baek
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-23
    • /
    • 2010
  • Some researches insist that, to participate in an e-partnership, a distributor needs a given level of trust to reduce the perceived risk of an e-partnership to his/her own threshold. However, other researches insist that if a distributor has only a given level of trust in his/her suppliers, irrelevant of the perceived risk level, he/she participates in the e-partnership. Thus, from the perspective of a distributor, this study built a trust model in which these two viewpoints were reflected. And then this study examined whether or not perceived risk mediates an influence of trust to e-partnership. The proposed trust model was tested with 265 questionnaires about a distributor-supplier e-partnership in food wholesale markets. The analysis results Indicated that perceived risk partially had a mediating effect between trust and e-partnership Intention. That is, of the two risk types, only perceived performance risk mediated an influence from competence trust to e-partnership intention. Relational risk did not play a mediating role between goodwill trust and e-partnership intention. This result Implies two managerial meanings. First, a distributor Intends to engage In e-partnership with his/her supplier, irrelevant of relational risk's level if goodwill trust level surpasses his/her own threshold. Thus, suppliers should concentrate more effort in developing goodwill trust than in reducing relational risk. To develop goodwill trust, they should endeavor to establish mutual interests and individual trust with their distributor, and to utilize institutional trust bases. Second, a distributor requires a certain competence In his/her suppliers to sufficiently reduce performance risk caused bye-partnership. Thus, to develop competence trust in e-partnership, suppliers should improve on any lack of competence and build a good reputation.