• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Management

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Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

The Interrelationship between Riparian Vegetation and Hydraulic Characteristics during the 2020 Summer Extreme Flood in the Seomjin-gang River, South Korea (2020 여름 섬진강 대홍수시 하안식생과 수리 특성의 상호관계)

  • Lee, Cheolho;Lee, Keonhak;Kim, Hwirae;Baek, Donghae;Kim, Won;Kim, Daehyun;Lee, Hyunjae;Woo, Hyoseop;Cho, Kang-Hyun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2021
  • Because active interactions occur among vegetation, hydrology, and geomorphology in riparian systems, any changes in one of these factors can significantly affect the other two. In this study, we evaluated these interactions at four sites (two in Gajeong and two in Hahan) along the Seomjin-gang River that was substantially devastated by an extreme flood in 2020. We examined the relationship between the riparian vegetation and the hydraulic characteristics of the flood using remote sensing, hydraulic modeling, and field surveys combined. The evaluation results showed that the floods caused a record-breaking rise of up to 43.1 m above sea level at the Yeseong-bridge stage gauge station (zero elevation 27.4 m) located between the Gajeong and Hahan sites, with the shear stress being four times higher in Hahan than in Gajeong. Additionally, the water level during the flood was estimated to be a maximum of 1 m higher depending on the location in the presence of riparian plants. Furthermore, both sites underwent extensive biological damage due to the flood, with 78-80% loss in vegetation, with preferential damage observed in large willow species, compared to Quercus acutissima. The above findings imply that all plant species exhibit different vulnerabilities towards extreme floods and do not induce similar behavior towards events causing a disturbance. In conclusion, we developed strategies for effectively managing riparian trees by minimizing flood hazards that could inevitably cause damage.

Prevalence of Microbiological Contamination in the Ready-To-Eat Side Dishes Sold in Gyeongsangnam-do, South Korea (경남지역에서 유통되는 즉석 반찬류의 미생물 오염도 조사)

  • Ji-Yeon Um;Hye-Jeong Jang;Yeon-Ju Choi;So-Young Kim;Areum Jo;Min Young Kim;Jihee Ahn;Jea-Dong Kim
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 2023
  • The consumption of ready-to-eat side dishes is rapidly growing in South Korea. These foods are particularly vulnerable to microbiological contamination as they are often cooked without any treatment, such as heating or stored at room temperature after cooking. Hence, in 2022, we analyzed the ready-to-eat side dishes sold in Gyeongsangnam-do, South Korea for microbiological contamination. We collected 100 samples from supermarkets in 7 cities, and then examined them for presence of food-borne pathogens and sanitary indicator bacteria. In the analysis of the food-borne pathogens, Bacillus cereus and Clostridium perfringens were isolated from 51 samples (51.0%) and 3 samples (3.0%), respectively. However, both quantitatively met the Korean Food Standards Codex. Genes of five different enterotoxins and one emetic toxin were analyzed from the 51 isolated B. cereus strains. We detected enterotoxin entFM (100.0%), nheA (94.1%), hblC (58.8%), cytK (56.9%), and bceT (41.2%) in 51 isolates, and emetic toxin gene, CER, in only one (2.0%) isolate. We did not detect C. perfringens toxin gene (cpe) that causes food poisoning in any one of the three C. perfringens isolates. In the case of sanitary indicator bacteria, Kimchi had the highest levels of total aerobic bacteria and coliforms, followed by Saengchae, Jeotgal, Jeolim, Namul, and Jorim, respectively. We counted total aerobic bacteria at two different storage temperatures (4℃ and 20℃) to determine the effect of storage temperature. When stored at 20℃, total aerobic bacteria count increased in most of the ready-to-eat side dishes, except for Jeotgal. This result conclusively shows the need for refrigerating the ready-to-eat side dishes after purchase. Further research is needed to assess the risk and safety of the ready-to-eat side dishes available in the market and determine appropriate safety management practices.

Development of disaster severity classification model using machine learning technique (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 재해강도 분류모형 개발)

  • Lee, Seungmin;Baek, Seonuk;Lee, Junhak;Kim, Kyungtak;Kim, Soojun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.261-272
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    • 2023
  • In recent years, natural disasters such as heavy rainfall and typhoons have occurred more frequently, and their severity has increased due to climate change. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) currently uses the same criteria for all regions in Korea for watch and warning based on the maximum cumulative rainfall with durations of 3-hour and 12-hour to reduce damage. However, KMA's criteria do not consider the regional characteristics of damages caused by heavy rainfall and typhoon events. In this regard, it is necessary to develop new criteria considering regional characteristics of damage and cumulative rainfalls in durations, establishing four stages: blue, yellow, orange, and red. A classification model, called DSCM (Disaster Severity Classification Model), for the four-stage disaster severity was developed using four machine learning models (Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and XGBoost). This study applied DSCM to local governments of Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi Province province. To develop DSCM, we used data on rainfall, cumulative rainfall, maximum rainfalls for durations of 3-hour and 12-hour, and antecedent rainfall as independent variables, and a 4-class damage scale for heavy rain damage and typhoon damage for each local government as dependent variables. As a result, the Decision Tree model had the highest accuracy with an F1-Score of 0.56. We believe that this developed DSCM can help identify disaster risk at each stage and contribute to reducing damage through efficient disaster management for local governments based on specific events.

Revision of Nutrition Quotient for Korean adolescents 2021 (NQ-A 2021) (청소년 영양지수 (NQ-A 2021) 개정에 관한 연구)

  • Ki Nam Kim;Hyo-Jeong Hwang;Young-Suk Lim;Ji-Yun Hwang;Sehyug Kwon;Jung-Sug Lee;Hye-Young Kim
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.247-263
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to update the Nutrition Quotient for Adolescents (NQ-A), which is used to assess the overall dietary quality and food behavior among Korean adolescents. Methods: The first 30 candidate items of the measurable eating behavior checklist were obtained based on a previous NQ-A checklist, the results of the seventh Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, Korea Youth Risk Behavior Survey data, national nutrition policies and dietary guidelines, and literature reviews. A total of 100 middle and high school students residing in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province participated in a pilot study using the 25-item checklist. Factor analysis and frequency analysis were conducted to determine if the checklist items were organized properly and whether the responses to each item were distributed adequately, respectively. As a result, 22 checklist items were selected for the nationwide survey, which was applied to 1,000 adolescent subjects with stratified sampling from 6 metropolitan cities. The construct validity of the updated NQ-A 2021 was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis. Results: Twenty checklist items were determined for the final NQ-A 2021. The items were composed of three factors: balance (8 items), moderation (9 items), and practice (3 items). The standardized path coefficients were used as the weights of items to determine the nutrition quotients. NQ-A 2021 and 3-factor scores were calculated according to the weights of questionnaire items. The weight for each of the 3 factors was determined as follows: balance, 0.15; moderation, 0.30; and practice, 0.55. Conclusion: The updated NQ-A 2021 is a useful instrument for easily and quickly evaluating the dietary qualities and eating behaviors of Korean adolescents.

Detection of Salmonella spp. in Seafood via Desalinized DNA Extraction Method and Pre-culture (전배양과 탈염과정을 포함하는 DNA 추출법을 이용한 분자생물학적 방법으로 수산물 중 오염된 Salmonella spp.의 검출)

  • Ye-Jun Song;Kyung-Jin Cho;Eun-Ik Son;Du-Min Jo;Young-Mog Kim;Seul-Ki Park
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2023
  • Salmonella spp. are prevalent foodborne pathogens that are infective at relatively low concentrations, thus posing a serious health threat, especially to young children and the elderly. In several countries, the management and regulation of Salmonella spp. in food, including seafood, adhere to a negative detection standard. The risk of infection is particularly high when seafood is consumed raw, which underscores the importance of timely detection of pathogenic microorganisms, such as Salmonella. Accordingly, this study aimed to develop a combined pre-treatment and detection method that includes pre-culture and DNA extraction in order to detect five species of Salmonella at concentrations below 10 CFU/mL in seafood. The effectiveness of the proposed method was assessed in terms of the composition of the enrichment (pre-culture) medium, minimum incubation time, and minimum cell concentration for pathogen detection. Furthermore, a practical DNA extraction method capable of effectively handling high salt conditions was tested and found to be successful. Through polymerase chain reaction, Salmonella spp. Were detected and positively identified in shellfish samples at cell concentrations below 10 CFU/g. Thus, the proposed method, combining sample pre-treatment and cell culture with DNA extraction, was shown to be an effective strategy for detecting low cellular concentrations of harmful bacteria. The proposed methodology is suitable as an economical and practical in situ pre-treatment for effective detection of Salmonella spp. in seafood.

A Correlation Analysis between International Oil Price Fluctuations and Overseas Construction Order Volumes using Statistical Data (통계 데이터를 활용한 국제 유가와 해외건설 수주액의 상관성 분석)

  • Park, Hwan-Pyo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.273-284
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    • 2024
  • This study investigates the impact of international oil price fluctuations on overseas construction orders secured by domestic and foreign companies. The analysis employs statistical data spanning the past 20 years, encompassing international oil prices, overseas construction orders from domestic firms, and new overseas construction orders from the top 250 global construction companies. The correlation between these variables is assessed using correlation coefficients(R), determination coefficients(R2), and p-values. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between international oil prices and overseas construction orders. The correlation coefficient between domestic overseas construction orders and oil prices is found to be 0.8 or higher, signifying a significant influence. Similarly, a high correlation coefficient of 0.76 is observed between oil prices and new orders from leading global construction companies. Further analysis reveals a particularly strong correlation between oil prices and overseas construction orders in Asia and the Middle East, potentially due to the prevalence of oil-related projects in these regions. Additionally, a high correlation is observed between oil prices and orders for industrial facilities compared to architectural projects. This suggests an increase in plant construction volumes driven by fluctuations in oil prices. Based on these findings, the study proposes an entry strategy for navigating oil price volatility and maintaining competitiveness in the overseas construction market. Key recommendations include diversifying project locations and supplier bases; utilizing hedging techniques for exchange rate risk management, adapting to local infrastructure and market conditions, establishing local partnerships and securing skilled local labor, implementing technological innovations and digitization at construction sites to enhance productivity and cost reduction The insights gained from this study, coupled with the proposed overseas expansion strategies, offer valuable guidance for mitigating risks in the global construction market and fostering resilience in response to international oil price fluctuations. This approach is expected to strengthen the competitiveness of domestic and foreign construction firms seeking success in the international arena.

Literature Review on Applying Digital Therapeutic Art Therapy for Adolescent Substance Addiction Treatment (청소년 마약류 중독 치료를 위한 디지털치료제 예술치료 적용을 위한 문헌연구)

  • Jiwon Kim;Daniel H. Byun
    • Trans-
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    • v.16
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2024
  • The advent of digital media has facilitated easy access for adolescents to environments conducive to the purchase of narcotics. In particular, there's an increasing trend in the purchase and consumption of narcotics mediated through Social Network Services (SNS) and messenger services. Adolescents, sensitive to such environments, are at risk of experiencing neurological and mental health issues due to narcotic addiction, increasing their exposure to criminal activities, hence necessitating national-level management and support. Consequently, the quest for sustainable treatment methods for adolescents exposed to narcotics emerges as a critical challenge. In the context of high relapse rates in narcotic addiction, the necessity for cost-effective and user-friendly treatment programs is emphasized. This study conducts a literature review aimed at utilizing digital platforms to create an environment where adolescents can voluntarily participate, focusing on the development of therapeutic content through art. Specifically, it reviews societal perceptions and treatment statuses of adolescent drug addiction, analyzes the impact of narcotic addiction on adolescent brain activity and cognitive function degradation, and explores approaches for developing digital therapeutics to promote the rehabilitation of the addicted brain through analysis of precedential case studies. Moreover, the study investigates the benefits that the integration of digital therapeutic approaches and art therapy can provide in the treatment process and proposes the possibility of enhancing therapeutic effects through various treatment programs such as drama therapy, music therapy, and art therapy. The application of art therapy methods is anticipated to offer positive effects in terms of tool expansion, diversification of expression, data acquisition, and motivation. Through such approaches, an enhancement in the effectiveness of treatments for adolescent narcotic addiction is anticipated. Overall, this study undertakes foundational research for the development of digital therapeutics and related applications, offering economically viable and sustainable treatment options in consideration of the societal context of adolescent narcotic addiction.

COVID-19 Rapid Antigen Test Results in Preschool and School (March 2 to May 1, 2022) (유치원·학교 구성원의 코로나19 신속항원검사 결과(2022년 3월 2일부터 5월 1일까지))

  • Gowoon Yun;Young-Joon Park;Eun Jung Jang;Sangeun Lee;Ryu Kyung Kim;Heegwon Jeong;Jin Gwack
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: In response to the surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) omicron variant cases, we have implemented preemptive testing for preschool and school. The purpose is to quickly detect COVID-19 cases using a rapid antigen test (RAT) kit so that normal school activities can continue. Methods: The results entered in The Healthcare Self-Test App were merged with the information on the status of confirmed cases in the COVID-19 Information Management System by Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) for preschool and school of students and staffs March 2 to May 1, 2022 to analyze the RAT positive rate and positive predictive value of RAT. Results: In preschool and school 19,458,575 people were tested, weekly RAT positive rate ranged from 1.10% to 5.90%, positive predictive value of RAT ranged from 86.42% to 93.18%. By status, RAT positive rate ranged from 1.13% to 6.16% for students, 0.99% to 3.93% for staffs, positive predictive value of RAT ranged from 87.19% to 94.03% for students, 77.55% to 83.10% for staffs. RAT positive rate by symptoms ranged from 76.32% to 88.02% for those with symptoms and 0.34% to 1.11% for those without symptoms. As a result of preschool and school RAT, 943,342 confirmed cases were preemptively detected, before infection spread in preschool and school. Conclusions: RAT was well utilized to detect confirmed cases at an early stage, reducing the risk of transmission to minimize the educational gap in preschool and school. To compensate for the limitations of RAT, further research should continue to reevaluate the performance of RAT as new strains of viruses continue to emerge. We will have to come up with various ways to utilize it, such as performing periodic and repeated RAT and parallel polymerase chain reaction.

An Analysis of Accessibility to Hydrogen Charging Stations in Seoul Based on Location-Allocation Models (입지배분모형 기반의 서울시 수소충전소 접근성 분석)

  • Sang-Gyoon Kim;Jong-Seok Won;Yong-Beom Pyeon;Min-Kyung Cho
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.339-350
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study analyzes accessibility of 10 hydrogen charging stations in Seoul and identifies areas that were difficult to access. The purpose is to re-analyze accessibility by adding a new location in terms of equity and safety of location placement, and then draw implications by comparing the improvement effects. Method: By applying the location-allocation model and the service area model based on network analysis of the ArcGIS program, areas with weak access were identified. The location selection method applied the 'Minimize Facilities' method in consideration of the need for rapid arrival to insufficient hydrogen charging stations. The limit distance for arrival within a specific time was analyzed by applying the average vehicle traffic speed(23.1km/h, Seoul Open Data Square) in 2022 to three categories: 3,850m(10minutes), 5,775m(15minutes), 7,700m(20minutes). In order to minimize conflicts over the installation of hydrogen charging stations, special standards of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy applied to derive candidate sites for additional installation of hydrogen charging stations among existing gas stations and LPG/CNG charging stations. Result: As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that accessibility was significantly improved by installing 5 new hydrogen charging stations at relatively safe gas stations and LPG/CNG charging stations in areas where access to the existing 10 hydrogen charging stations is weak within 20 minutes. Nevertheless, it was found that there are still areas where access remains difficult. Conclusion: The location allocation model is used to identify areas where access to hydrogen charging stations is difficult and prioritize installation, decision-making to select locations for hydrogen charging stations based on scientific evidence can be supported.