• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.7-21
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• 1983

For the flexible and rational distribution of limited existing health resources based on measurements of individual risk, the socalled Risk Approach is being proposed by the World Health Organization as a managerial tool in maternal and child health care program. This approach, in principle, puts us under the necessity of developing a technique by which we will be able to measure the degree of risk or to discriminate the future outcomes of pregnancy on the basis of prior information obtainable at prenatal care delivery settings. Numerous recent studies have focussed on the identification of relevant risk factors as the Prior infer mation and on defining the adverse outcomes of pregnancy to be dicriminated, and also have tried on how to develope scoring system of risk factors for the quantitative assessment of the factors as the determinant of pregnancy outcomes. Once the scoring system is established the technique of classifying the patients into with normal and with adverse outcomes will be easily de veloped. The scoring system should be developed to meet the following four basic requirements. 1) Easy to construct 2) Easy to use 3) To be theoretically sound 4) To be valid In searching for a feasible methodology which will meet these requirements, the author has attempted to apply the“Likelihood Method”, one of the well known principles in statistical analysis, to develop such scoring system according to the process as follows. Step 1. Classify the patients into four groups: Group $A_1$: With adverse outcomes on fetal (neonatal) side only. Group $A_2$: With adverse outcomes on maternal side only. Group $A_3$: With adverse outcome on both maternal and fetal (neonatal) sides. Group B: With normal outcomes. Step 2. Construct the marginal tabulation on the distribution of risk factors for each group. Step 3. For the calculation of risk score, take logarithmic transformation of relative proport-ions of the distribution and round them off to integers. Step 4. Test the validity of the score chart. h total of 2, 282 maternity records registered during the period of January 1, 1982-December 31, 1982 at Ewha Womans University Hospital were used for this study and the“Questionnaire for Maternity Record for Prenatal and Intrapartum High Risk Screening”developed by the Korean Institute for Population and Health was used to rearrange the information on the records into an easy analytic form. The findings of the study are summarized as follows. 1) The risk score chart constructed on the basis of“Likelihood Method”ispresented in Table 4 in the main text. 2) From the analysis of the risk score chart it was observed that a total of 24 risk factors could be identified as having significant predicting power for the discrimination of pregnancy outcomes into four groups as defined above. They are: (1) age (2) marital status (3) age at first pregnancy (4) medical insurance (5) number of pregnancies (6) history of Cesarean sections (7). number of living child (8) history of premature infants (9) history of over weighted new born (10) history of congenital anomalies (11) history of multiple pregnancies (12) history of abnormal presentation (13) history of obstetric abnormalities (14) past illness (15) hemoglobin level (16) blood pressure (17) heart status (18) general appearance (19) edema status (20) result of abdominal examination (21) cervix status (22) pelvis status (23) chief complaints (24) Reasons for examination 3) The validity of the score chart turned out to be as follows: a) Sensitivity: Group $A_1$: 0.75 Group $A_2$: 0.78 Group $A_3$: 0.92 All combined : 0.85 b) Specificity : 0.68 4) The diagnosabilities of the“score chart”for a set of hypothetical prevalence of adverse outcomes were calculated as follows (the sensitivity“for all combined”was used). Hypothetidal Prevalence : 5％ 10％ 20％ 30％ 40％ 50％ 60％ Diagnosability : 12% 23% 40% 53% 64% 75% 80%.

• Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.205-210
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• 2014

Atopic sensitization is a complex phenomenon that changes dynamically with age throughout childhood; its prevalence increases with age in young children. Additionally, with increasing age, the prevalence of sensitization to inhalant allergens and the prevalence of polysensitization to allergens increase. It is also well established that the development of atopic sensitization is the result of a complex interplay of genetic and environmental factors. However, there is considerable heterogeneity in the literature in terms of the effect of different environmental exposures in young children on the subsequent risk of atopic sensitization and allergic diseases. Previous studies on the relationship, in early life, between pet ownership, sex, exposure to secondhand smoke, exposure to traffic-related air pollution components, and atopic sensitization have yielded different results. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of gene-environment interactions, especially during early childhood, on the risk of subsequent atopic sensitization and allergic diseases. Therefore, pediatricians should consider the genetic and environmental determinants of atopic sensitization in infants and young children when diagnosing and treating patients with allergic diseases. Determining ways in which early exposure to these risk factors in young children may be reduced could be beneficial in preventing the likelihood of developing atopic sensitization.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.18 no.9
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• pp.31-43
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• 2020

Purpose: This study examined a comprehensive model for assessing the success probability of electric vehicle (EV) commercialization in the Korean market. The study identified three risks associated with successful commercialization which were technology, social, policy, environmental, and consumer risk. Research design, methodology: The assessment of the riskiness was represented by a Bayes belief network, where the probability of success at each stage is conditioned on the outcome of the preceding stage. Probability of success in each stage is either dependent on input (i.e., investment) or external factors (i.e., air quality). Initial input stages were defined as the levels of investment in product R&D, battery technology, production facilities and battery charging facilities. Results: Reasonable levels of investment were obtained by expert opinion from industry experts. Also, a survey was carried out with 78 experts consisting of automaker engineers, managers working at EV parts manufacturers, and automobile industry researchers in government think tanks to obtain the conditional probability distributions. Conclusion: The output of the model was the likelihood of success - expressed as the probability of market acceptance - that depended on the various input values. A model is a useful tool for understanding the EV industry as a whole and explaining the likely ramifications of different investment levels.

• Korean Journal of Cleft Lip And Palate
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.81-86
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• 2005

Cleft palate patients with congenital anomalies have an increased risk of airway problems following palatoplasty. Factors that were related included presence of associated congenital anomalies, duration of surgery, age at time of surgery, history of previous airway problem, and excessive pressure exerted on the base of the tongue by Dingman retractor. This report described a complication of post-operative Pneumonia after palatoplasty (Furlow technique), which resulted in a life-threatening acute airway obstruction in an infant with cleft palate. Patient has a history of previous mild airway problems. In addition to this problem, we speculate that Furlow technique involves more extensive surgical dissection than other techniques may increase risk for upper airway obstruction. Awareness of this risk permits identifying those patients prior to surgery so that they can be monitored and managed properly, minimizing the likelihood of major complications or possibility of death.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.10-21
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• 2018

Many construction projects involve a plethora of safety-related problems that can cause loss of productivity, diminished revenue, time overruns, and legal challenges. Incorporating data collection and analytics methods can help overcome the root causes of many such problems. However, in a dynamic construction workplace collecting data from a large number of resources is not a trivial task and can be costly, while many contractors lack the motivation to incorporate technology in their activities. In this research, an Android-based mobile application, Preemptive Construction Site Safety (PCS2) is developed and tested for real-time location tracking, trajectory prediction, and prevention of potential collisions between workers and site hazards. PCS2 uses ubiquitous mobile technology (smartphones) for positional data collection, and a robust trajectory prediction technique that couples hidden Markov model (HMM) with risk-taking behavior modeling. The effectiveness of PCS2 is evaluated in field experiments where impending collisions are predicted and safety alerts are generated with enough lead time for the user. With further improvement in interface design and underlying mathematical models, PCS2 will have practical benefits in large scale multi-agent construction worksites by significantly reducing the likelihood of proximity-related accidents between workers and equipment.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.897-907
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to investigate the quality of entrepreneurship - motivation, entrepreneurial orientation, and risk behavior - in relation to the odds of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises' (MSMEs) financial performance in Indonesia. Additionally, this paper investigates how these qualities apply for the current challenges perceived by MSMEs' entrepreneurs in Indonesia due to Covid-19 crisis; specifically, this paper examines the odds of MSMEs' financial performance during the pandemic in respect to when these qualities are implemented by the entrepreneurs. The empirical data was obtained from an online survey by means of a structured questionnaire. MSMEs surveyed were randomly selected on a national scale. To test the hypotheses, a quantitative approach is employed, using multinomial regression. The main result shows that, under normal economic environment, the more intrinsically-motivated and continuity-driven entrepreneur is, the more likely the MSME will achieve financial growth compared to remaining stagnant. To our surprise, innovativeness leads to less likelihood of MSME's financial growth, suggesting the significance of innovation does not apply to MSMEs in Indonesia. Lastly, MSMEs' risk behavior to operate in a stable business environment is found more likely to result in a better performance and is true for operational and financial risks, but not marketing risks.

• Korean Circulation Journal
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• v.52 no.7
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• pp.485-495
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• 2022

Coronary artery disease is highly prevalent in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is a risk factor for contrast-associated acute kidney injury (CA-AKI), a complication of cardiovascular procedures that require contrast administration (e.g., coronary angiography, percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI]). CA-AKI has a major impact on morbidity, mortality, and healthcare resource utilization. The incidence of CA-AKI is particularly high in patients with pre-existing CKD, advanced age and comorbidities that increase the likelihood of CKD. The focus of the present review is to provide a brief overview on the assessment of the risk for and prevention of CA-AKI in patients undergoing angiography and PCI, including recognition of the important patient- and procedure-related factors that may contribute to CA-AKI. Preventive and treatment strategies, the mainstay of which is volume repletion by normal saline, are briefly discussed. The main focus of the review is placed on technical details of contrast minimization techniques, including ultra-low contrast angiography and zerocontrast PCI. Operator competence in such techniques is important to ensure that procedural challenges in patients with CKD, like vessel calcification, multivessel disease and complex anatomical subsets, are effectively addressed by PCI while minimizing the risk of CA-AKI.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.159-168
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• 2019

This study was designed to investigate the physiological response of humans to alcohol during underwater activity and to complete related risk analysis. After comparing human responses to alcohol during underwater activity, we analyzed physiological changes and risk level using a new risk analysis method developed in this study, 'Risk Assessment and Analysis (RAA)'. RAA is a modified method based on an internal control frame work. It has 3 steps, the first of which is to analyze risk correlation. The second step is to quantify risk and build a risk database. The last step is to analyze the diagramed risk map. Using RAA, the risk levels of alcohol use underwater were calculated and diagramed. The diagramed risk map was then used to analyze the difference between risk levels underwater before and after alcohol use. As a result, it was found that risk level underwater increased after alcohol use. This study shows alcohol use increases the ratio of high risk groups during underwater activity. It also indicates that risk levels can be quantified according to the likelihood and impairment scale, which can potentially help in identifying high risk groups for intensive management underwater.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.15-22
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• 2013

In clinical study or epidemic research, the $2{\times}2$ frequency table is useful to present a summary statistic The values of four cells in $2{\times}2$ table use to calculate the effect measures such as risk ratio, relative ris ratio or odds ratio. In this paper, we suggest that the improved visualization method using a radar diagram supported by MS-office Excel from the $2{\times}2$ frequency table is able to understand and draw easily betweendiagnosti measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictivity, and likelihood ratio. We use some numerical example in order to show the usage of the proposed method.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.609-628
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• 1995

This paper presents a reliability model and a data-analytic procedure for a repairable unit subject to failures due to multiple non-identifiable causes. We regard a failure cause as a state and assume the life distribution for each cause to be exponential. Then we represent the dependency among the causes by a Markov switching model(MSM) and estimate the transition probabilities and failure rates by maximum likelihood(ML) method. The failure data are incomplete due to masked causes of failures. We propose a specific version of EM(expectation and maximization) algorithm for finding maximum likelihood estimator(MLE) under this situation. We also develop statistical procedures for determining the number of significant states and for testing independency between state transitions. Our model requires only the successive failure times of a unit to perform the statistical analysis. It works well even when the causes of failures are fully masked, which overcomes the major deficiency of competing risk models. It does not require the assumption of stationarity or independency which is essential in mixture models. The stationary probabilities of states can be easily calculated from the transition probabilities estimated in our model, so it covers mixture models in general. The results of simulations show the consistency of estimation and accuracy gradually increasing according to the difference of failure rates and the frequency of transitions among the states.