• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.29-45
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• 2012

Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.20 no.1 s.21
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• pp.165-203
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• 1987

This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.452-461
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• 1994

Background: Tumor necrosis factor(TNF)-$\alpha$ and Interleukin(lL)-$1{\beta}$ are thought to play a major role in the pathogenesis of the septic syndrome, which is frequently associated with adult respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS). In spite of many reports for the role of TNF-$\alpha$ in the pathogenesis of ARDS, including human studies, it has been reported that TNF-$\alpha$ is not sensitive and specific marker for impending ARDS. But there is a possibility that the results were affected by the diversity of pathogenetic mechanisms leading to the ARDS because of various underlying disorders of the study group in the previous reports. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the roles of TNF-$\alpha$ and IL-$1{\beta}$ as a predictable marker for development of ARDS in the patients with septic syndrome, in which the pathogenesis is believed to be mainly cytokine-mediated. Methods: Thirty-six patients of the septic syndrome hospitalized in the intensive care units of the Asan Medical Center were studied. Sixteens suffered from ARDS, whereas the remaining 20 were at the risk of developing ARDS(acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, AHRF). In all patients venous blood samples were collected in heparin-coated tubes at the time of enrollment, at 24 and 72 h thereafter. TNF-$\alpha$ and IL-$1{\beta}$ was measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). All data are expressed as median with interquartile range. Results: 1) Plama TNF-$\alpha$ levels: Plasma TNF-$\beta$ levels were less than 10pg/mL, which is lowest detection value of the kit used in this study within the range of the $mean{\pm}2SD$, in all of the normal controls, 8 of 16 subjects of ARDS and in 8 in 20 subjects of AHRF. Plasma TNF-$\alpha$ levels from patients with ARDS were 10.26pg/mL(median; <10-16.99pg/mL, interquartile range) and not different from those of patients at AHRF(10.82, <10-20.38pg/mL). There was also no significant difference between pre-ARDS(<10, <10-15.32pg/mL) and ARDS(<10, <10-10.22pg/mL). TNF-$\alpha$ levels were significantly greater in the patients with shock than the patients without shock(12.53pg/mL vs. <10pg/mL) (p<0.01). There was no statistical significance between survivors(<10, <10-12.92pg/mL) and nonsurvivors(11.80, <10-20.8pg/mL) (P=0.28) in the plasma TNF-$\alpha$ levels. 2) Plasma IL-$1{\beta}$ levels: Plasma IL-$1{\beta}$ levels were less than 0.3ng/mL, which is the lowest detection value of the kit used in this study, in one of each patients group. There was no significant difference in IL-$1{\beta}$ levels of the ARDS(2.22, 1.37-8.01ng/mL) and of the AHRF(2.13, 0.83-5.29ng/mL). There was also no significant difference between pre-ARDS(2.53, <0.3-8.34ngfmL) and ARDS(5.35, 0.66-11.51ng/mL), and between patients with septic shock and patients without shock (2.51, 1.28-8.34 vs 1.46, 0.15-2.13ng/mL). Plasma IL-$1{\beta}$ levels were significantly different between survivors(1.37, 0.4-2.36ng/mL) and nonsurvivors(2.84, 1.46-8.34ng/mL). Conclusion: Plasma TNF-$\alpha$ and IL-$1{\beta}$ level are not a predictable marker for development of ARDS. But TNF-$\alpha$ is a marker for shock in septic syndrome. These result could not exclude a possibility of pathophysiologic roles of TNF-$\alpha$ and IL-$1{\beta}$ in acute lung injury because these cytokine could be locally produced and exert its effects within the lungs.

• Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.30-40
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• 2000

Purpose: During the first year of life, cow's milk protein is the major offender causing food allergy. Cow's milk allergy (CMA) affects 2~7% of infants, of which approximately one-half show predominantly gastrointestinal symptoms. We studied the clinical types of cow's milk allergy with predominantly gastrointestinal symptoms (CMA-GI) of childhood. Methods: The retrospective study was performed on 30 (male 22, female 8) patients who had diagnosed as CMA-GI during 2 years and 3 months from March 1995 to June 1997. Results: 1) Children with CMA-GI presented in the three types of clinical manifestation on the basis of time to reaction to milk ingestion: Quick (Q) onset (5 cases), Slow (S) onset (20 cases), Quick & Slow (Q&S) (5 cases). 2) Age on admission of the three groups was significantly different (p<0.05): (Q onset: $81.4{\pm}67.1$ days, S onset: $31.9{\pm}12.7$ days, Q&S: $366.0{\pm}65.0$ days). Although the body weight at birth was 10~95 percentile in all patients, body weight on admission was different: (Q onset: 10~50 percentile, S onset: below 10 percentile, Q&S: 10~25 percentile). S onset group was significantly different compared with other groups (p<0.05) and 90% of this one was failure to thrive below 3 percentile. 3) Peripheral leukocyte counts were as followings: (Q onset: $5,700{\sim}12,300/mm^3$, S onset: $10,000{\sim}33,400/mm^3$, Q&S: $5,200{\sim}14,900/mm^3$). Slow onset group was significantly different compared with other groups (p<0.05). Serum albumin levels on admission were as followings: (Q onset: $4.2{\pm}0.4\;g/dl$, S onset: $3.0{\pm}0.3\;g/dl$, Q&S: $4.0{\pm}0.3\;g/dl$). S onset group was significantly different compared with other groups (p<0.05) and 85% of this one was below 3.5 g/dl. 4) Although morphometrical analysis on small intestinal mucosa did not show enteropathy in Q onset and Q&S groups, all cases of S onset revealed enteropathy: 45% of this one showed subtotal villous atrophy, 55 % showed partial villous atrophy. 5) Allergic reaction test to other foods was not performed in S onset group because of ethical problem and high risk in general condition. In Q onset group, allergic reaction to one or two other foods: soy formula, weaning formula and eggs. Q&S goup revealed allergic reactions to several foods or to most of all foods except protein hydrolysate formula: eggs, potatos, some kinds of sea food, apples, carrots, beef and chicken. 6) Serum IgE level, peripheral eosinophil counts, milk RAST, soy RAST, skin test were not significantly different among groups. Conclusion: CMA-GI may present in three clinical ways on the basis of time to reaction to milk ingestion, typical clinical findings and morphologic changes in the small bowel mucosal biopsy specimens. This clinical subdivision might be helpful in diagnostic and therapeutic approaches in CMA-GI. Early suspicion is mandatory especially in S onset type because of high risks with malnutrition and enteropathy.