• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.107-118
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• 2020

Chloral hydrate is the oldest and most common sedative drug used in moderate sedation for pediatric dental patients. Hence, the purpose of this article is to review the safety and possible adverse events of this drug when used for pediatric dental treatment. A bibliographic search in PubMed, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library and KMbase, KISS, DBpia, KoreaMed, and RISS databases was performed. Using the keywords "dental sedation," "chloral hydrate," and "children or adolescent," 512 scientific articles were found. Subsequently, 183 studies were individually assessed for their suitability for inclusion in this literature review. Altogether, 24 studies were selected. They included 12 cases of death before, during, or after chloral hydrate sedation for dental treatment, majorly due to dosing error and use of multiple sedatives. Additionally, intraoperative adverse events were mostly respiratory problems such as hypoxia and apnea, but most events were temporary. After treatment, prolonged sedation, including excessive sleep and less activity were the most common postoperative adverse events, and even death cases were reported. Despite the wide acceptance of chloral hydrate as a sedative-hypnotic agent, the risk of adverse events and adequate dose should be of great concern when using it for pediatric dental sedation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.1024-1031
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• 2019

The Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) with its liquid circulating fuel and its fast neutron spectrum calls for a new safety approach including technological neutral methodologies and analysis tools adapted to early design phases. In the frame of the Horizon2020 program SAMOFAR (Safety Assessment of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor) a safety approach suitable for Molten Salt Reactors is being developed and applied to the MSFR. After a description of the MSFR reference design, this paper focuses on the identification of the Postulated Initiating Events (PIEs), which is a core part of the global assessment methodology. To fulfil this task, the Functional Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FFMEA) and the Master Logic Diagram (MLD) are selected and employed separately in order to be as exhaustive as possible in the identification of the initiating events of the system. Finally, an extract of the list of PIEs, selected as the most representative events resulting from the implementation of both methods, is presented to illustrate the methodology and some of the outcomes of the methods are compared in order to highlight symbioses and differences between the MLD and the FFMEA.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.121-121
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• 2020

Varying dominant processes, including Tropical Cyclone (TC) and non-TC rainfall events, have been known to drive the occurrence of precipitation in South Korea. With the changes in the pattern of the Earth's climate due to anthropogenic activities, nonstationarity or changes in the magnitude and frequency of these dominant processes have been separately observed for the past decades and are expected to continue in the coming years. These changes often cause unprecedented hydrologic events such as extreme flooding which pose a greater risk to the society. This study aims to take into account a more reliable future climate condition with two dominant processes. Diverse statistical models including the hidden markov chain, K-nearest neighbor algorithm, and quantile mappings are utilized to mimic future rainfall events based on the recorded historical data with the consideration of the varying effects of TC and non-TC events. The data generated is then utilized to the hydrologic model to conduct a flood frequency analysis. Results in this study emphasize the need to consider the nonstationarity of design rainfalls to fully grasp the degree of future flooding events when designing urban water infrastructures.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.129-139
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• 2005

This paper proposes a framework of Operational Risk-based Business Continuity System(ORBCS), and develops protection system for operational risk through operational risk assessment and loss distribution approach based on risk management guideline announced in the basel II. In order to find out financial operational risk, business processes of domestic bank are assorted by seven event factors and eight business activities so that we can construct the system. After we find out KRI(Key Risk Indicator) index, tasks and risks, we calculated risk possibility and expected cost by analyzing quantitative data, questionnaire and qualitative approach for AHP model from the past events. Furthermore, we can assume unexpected cost loss by using loss distribution approach presented in the basel II. Each bank can also assume expected loss distributions of operational risk by seven event factors and eight business activities. In this research, we choose loss distribution approach so that we can calculate operational risk. In order to explain number of case happened, we choose poisson distribution, log-normal distribution for loss cost, and estimate model for Monte-Carlo simulation. Through this process which is measured by operational risk. of ABC bank, we find out that loss distribution approach explains closer unexpected cost directly compared than internal measurement approach, and makes less unexpected cost loss.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.203-209
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• 2014

This research designed and implemented a supply chain risk management platform and applied it to a case study of reduced-fat Lanna pork sausage as a new product development project. The proposed framework has three stages: risk identification, risk assessment, and risk mitigation. Seventeen risk agents with 17 risk events were identified based on SWOT analysis and the Porter Five Forces concept through the process of planning, sourcing, making and delivering, partially captured from the supply chain operations reference model in the first stage. In the second stage, an house of risk (HOR) framework was applied to present the impacts of each risk agent. In the third stage, eight risk agents with high impact were selected to design 21 preventive actions. Finally, three preventive actions with the highest effectiveness to difficulty ratio scores-'sales evaluation of familiar products', 'increasing distribution channels and promotions to improve sales', and 'work flow improvement for work safety'-were then recommended for this new product development.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.1231-1236
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• 2005

Global construction projects manifest more risks than do other industries. Often, firms doing business in construction markets find these risks intimidating. To secure corresponding profits, many global contractors attempt to forecast the effects of risks and establish risk management strategies. However, one key problem with present-day risk management methods is that they are basically analytical or mathematical-oriented approaches which are not easy to adopt in real business. Based on preliminary investigations and evaluations of current tools, this research elicits more practical algorithms for risk checklist by constructing risk scenarios over the whole period of project execution. For the application of the algorithms, a "SE/RF" (Source-Event/Regular-Floating) checklist is suggested, which sorts out risk sources and their subsequent events, as well as dividing various risk factors into either regular or floating categories. In addition, the "PIS" (Probability-Impact-Significance) method is introduced, in place of traditional "PI" (Probability-Impact) methods, by adding the additional criterion of "risk significance" to determine the degree of risk exposure in a more realistic way. As a result, we draw the significant finding that the "PIS" method presents a closer evaluation regarding degree of risk exposure as compared to the level of expert judgments than those from traditional methods. Finally, we provide an integrated procedure for international project risk management with all of the research achievements being incorporated.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.24-34
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• 2024

Fire, being primarily a natural phenomenon, is impossible to control, although it is feasible to map the forest fire risk zone, minimizing the frequency of fires. The spread of a fire starting in any stand in a forest can be predicted, given the burning conditions. The natural cover of the land and the safety of the population may be threatened by the spread of forest fires; thus, the prevention of fire damage requires early discovery. Satellite data and geographic information system (GIS) can be used effectively to combine different forest-fire-causing factors for mapping the forest fire risk zone. This study mainly focuses on mapping forest fire risk in the Madikhola watershed. The primary causes of forest fires appear to be human negligence, uncontrolled fire in nearby forests and agricultural regions, and fire for pastoral purposes which were used to evaluate and assign risk values to the mapping process. The majority of fires, according to MODIS events, occurred from December to April, with March recording the highest occurrences. The Risk Zonation Map, which was prepared using LULC, Forest Type, Slope, Aspect, Elevation, Road Proximity, and Proximity to Water Bodies, showed that a High Fire Risk Zone comprised 29% of the Total Watershed Area, followed by a Moderate Risk Zone, covering 37% of the total area. The derived map products are helpful to local forest managers to minimize fire risks within the forests and take proper responses when fires break out. This study further recommends including the fuel factor and other fire-contributing factors to derive a higher resolution of the fire risk map.

• Toxicological Research
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.291-296
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• 2018

Chemical carcinogenesis is a multistep process. Genotoxic carcinogens, which are DNA-reactive, induce DNA adduct formation and genetic alterations in target cells, thereby generating mutated cells (initiation). Subsequently, preneoplastic lesions appear through clonal proliferation of the mutated cells and transform into tumors (promotion and progression). Many factors may influence these processes in a dose-dependent manner. Therefore, quantitative analysis plays an important role in studies on the carcinogenic threshold of genotoxic carcinogens. Herein, we present data on the relationship between key carcinogenic events and their deriving point of departure (PoD). Their PoDs were also compared to those of the carcinogenesis pathway. In an experiment, the liver of rats exposed to 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo-(4,5-f)quinoxaline (MeIQx) was examined to determine the formation of MeIQx-DNA adducts, generation of mutations at LacI transgene, and induction of preneoplastic glutathione S-transferase placental form (GST-P)-positive foci and tumors (benign and malignant). The PoDs of the above key events in the carcinogenicity of MeIQx were increased as the carcinogenesis advanced; however, these PoDs were lower than those of tumor induction. Thus, the order of key events during tumor induction in the liver was as follows: formation of DNA adducts ${\ll}$ Mutations ${\ll}$ GST-positive foci (preneoplasia) ${\ll}$ Tumor (adenoma and carcinoma). We also obtained similar data on the genotoxic and carcinogenic PoDs of other hepatocarcinogens, such as 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo(4,5-f)quinoline. These results contribute to elucidating the existence of a genotoxic and carcinogenic threshold.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.104 no.2
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• pp.213-220
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• 2015

This study was carried out to determine the distribution of factors as effected by debris flow in Ulsan and Pusan metropolitan areas because mainly debris flow caused by typhoons and local heavy rainfall events is mainly attributed to damage of human being ad property. The high risk degree of debris flow was to affected by east (20%), northeast (20%) and northwest (20%) slopes with stand age class with elevation (69%) of 100-200 (33%). Also, the risk was high in high erosion collapse degree with slope degree of $20-25^{\circ}$ with over 300 mm (100%) of maximum daily rainfall events and 50-100 mm (50%) or >100 mm (50%) of maximum hourly rainfall events with <5 km of stream path and <50 ha of catchment area. Landslide debris and wood residue flow was also related to igneous rocks (73%) and bank collapse types of debrs flow (57%).