• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.111-126
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• 2020

Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.131-157
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• 2012

Despite the voluminous research on switching barriers, the notion that they can generate negative responses has not been investigated. Further, a critical question is what determines the strength of such negative responses. To address this question, the classic theory of psychological reactance is briefly reviewed, and the idea of switching barrier is advanced. This study attempts to suggest a model on the negative effects of switching- frustrated situation, based on the studies on psychological reactance. According to psychological reactance theory(Brehm 1966), whenever a freedom is threatened or removed, individuals are motivated, at least temporarily, to restore their freedom. For example, if individuals think they are free to engage in behaviors .v, y, or z, then threatening their freedom to engage in x would cause psychological reactance. This reactance could be reduced by an increase in the perceived attractiveness of engaging in, the threatened behavior(Kivetz 2005). This investigation seeks to extend existing switching barrier research in three important ways. First, while the past research has emphasized only positive role of switching barrier, this study address negative role of it by applying psychological reactance theory. Second, to find negative results of switching barrier, I suggest negative psychological response including regret to the past choice, resentment to the present provider, and strong desire to the alternative provider. Third, I suggest the perceived severity of the switching barriers, the attractiveness of the alternative as switching-frustrated situation which can lead to negative results. And, in addition to these relationships, I added moderated effects of perceived justice for better explanation. So this study includes the following hypotheses. H1-1 ~ H1-3: The attractiveness of the alternative has a positive effect regret to the past choice (h1-1), resentment to the present provider (h1-2), and strong desire to the alternative provider (h1-3). H2-1 ~ H2-3 : The perceived severity of the switching barrier has a positive effect regret to the past choice (h2-1), resentment to the present provider (h2-2), and strong desire to the alternative provider (h2-3). H3-1 ~ H3-3 : The positive relationships between the attractiveness of the alternative and consumer' negative responses will be stronger at low level of perceived justice than at high level of perceived justice. H4-1 ~ H4-3 : The positive relationships between the perceived severity of the switching barrier and consumer' negative responses will be stronger at low level of perceived justice than at high level of perceived justice. Survey research is employed to test hypotheses involving perceived severity of the switching barrier(Hess 2008), attractiveness of the alternative(Anderson and Narus 1990; Ohanian 1990),regret(Glovich and Medvec 1995), resentment, strong desire(Alcohol Urge Questionaire: Bohn et al. 1995), perceived justice(Bies and Moag 1986; Clemmer 1993; Lind and Tyler 1998). Previous researches, such as reactance theory, emotion and service failure, have been referenced to measure constructs. All items were measured on a 7-point Likert scale ranging from "strongly disagree" to "strongly agree". We collected data involving various service field, and used 249 respondents to analyze these data using the moderated regression. The results of our analysis suggest, as expected, that the perceived severity of the switching barrier had positive effects on regret to the past choice(b = .197, p< .01), resentment to the present provider(b = .214, p< .01), and strong desire to the alternative provider(b = .254, p< .001). And the attractiveness of the alternative had positive effects on regret to the past choice(b = .353, p<.001), resentment to the present provider(b = .174, p< .01), and strong desire to the alternative provider(b = .265, p< .001). However, our findings indicate perceived justice partly moderates relationship between switching-frustrated situation and psychological negative response. The study has brought to light a number of insights between switching barriers and consumer' negative responses that have been subject to little prior research. In particular, this study adds to the existing understanding of the psychological responses to switching barriers in switching- frustrated situation. This research therefore has significance to marketers for strategic marketing programs, particularly in terms of customer retention and switching barrier strategies. Since consumers could exhibit negative responses to switching barrier, companies would be able to lose their customer when they thoughtlessly use switching barrier for remaining customer. Although the study has these contributions, there are several limitations including unsupported hypotheses and research method. So, we need to make up for these limitations in the future researches.