• Title/Summary/Keyword: Resource Evaluation

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Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

Effects of Dietary Supplementation of Yacon (Polymnia sonchifolia) by-products on Performance and Physico-chemical Properties of Chicken Thigh Meat (사료에 야콘 부산물을 첨가 급여한 육계의 생산성 및 닭다리육의 이화학적 특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Young-Jik
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2013
  • This study was investigated the effects of dietary supplementation of Yacon by-product powder on performance, pH, total phenol contents, DPPH (1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl) radical scavenging activity, TBARS, WHC, shear force, meat color, and sensory evaluation of chicken thigh meat. Broiler chicks were fed diets for five weeks containing 0% Yacon by-products powder (Control), 0.5% Yacon by-products powder (T1), 1.0% Yacon by-products powder (T2), and 2.0% Yacon by-products powder (T3). There was no significant difference in performance among treatments, but mortality was decreased in diets by the supplementation of Yacon by-product powder than that of control. The total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and triglyceride of control were higher than treatment groups and HDL-cholesterol and glucose of control was lower than treatment. The pH and TBARS were significantly decreased by the supplementation of Yacon by-product powder compared to the control (P<0.05). The total phenol contents and DPPH radical scavenging activity were significantly increased by the supplementation of Yacon by-product powder compared to those of the control group (P<0.05), and especially, T3 was significantly (P<0.05) more effective in improving freshness compared to other treatment groups. The WHC (water holding capacity) and shear force were not significantly different. CIE $L^*$ and $a^*$ value of treatment groups showed significantly higher value compare to the control, however, no difference in the CIE $b^*$ values was observed among treatment groups. In conclusion, a supplementation of Yacon by-product powder was effective in decreasing pH and TBARS (thiobarbituric acid reactive substance), and increasing total phenol contents and DPPH radical scavenging activity.

The Effects of Bilateral Chewing Exercise on Occlusion Force and Masseter Muscle Thickness in Community-Dwelling Elderly (양측저작 운동이 지역사회 거주 노인의 교합력과 깨물근에 미치는 효과)

  • Hong, Jun-Yong;Jung, Young-Jin;Kim, Min-Ji;Hwang, Se-Hyun;Park, Ji-Su;Lee, Gi-Hyoun;Kim, Tae-Hoon;Jung, Nam-Hae;Yoon, Tae-Hyung
    • The Journal of Korean society of community based occupational therapy
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2020
  • Objective : The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of bilateral chewing exercise applied for 6 weeks on occlusion force and masseter muscle thickness in the elderly living in the community. Methods : This study recruited 25 community residents. All participants performed bilateral chewing exercise using equipment developed for the purpose of oral chewing exercise. The chewing exercise was divided into isometric and isotonic type and applied for about 20 minutes a day, five times a week for six weeks. For the evaluation, the masseter muscle thickness and the maximum occlusion force were measured three times at three week intervals using a portable ultrasound instrument and an occlusion force gauge. Results : As a result of the change in masseter muscle thickness, baseline, 3 weeks later, and 6 weeks later referred to 7.51±0.43, 7.63±0.44, and 7.83±0.46, respectively (F=3.819, p<.05). The post hoc test resulted in a significance between baseline and 6 weeks later (p=0.023). Similarly, as a result of the change in occlusion force, baseline, 3 weeks later, and 6 weeks later referred to 265±9.22, 268±9.57, and 271.59±10.16, respectively (F=3.031, p<.05). The post hoc test resulted in a significance between baseline and 6 weeks later (p=0.048). Conclusion : This study confirmed that bilateral chewing exercise was effective for increasing masseter muscle thickness and occlusion force in the elderly. Therefore, bilateral chewing exercise can be applied as a therapeutic exercise method for improving oral function.

Estimation and evaluation of irrigation water need using net water consumption concept in Jeju Island (순물소모량 개념에 의한 제주도 농업용수 수요량 산정 및 평가)

  • Kim, Chul Gyum;Kim, Nam Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.503-511
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    • 2017
  • In order to estimate the demand for water resources planning and operation, methodology for determining the size of water supply facilities has been mainly applied to agricultural water, unlike living and industrial water, which reflects actual usage trends. This inevitably leads to an overestimation of agricultural water and can lead to an imbalance in the supply and demand of each use in terms of the total water resources plan. In this study, the difference of approaches of concept of net consumption was examined in comparison with the existing methodology and the characteristics of agricultural water demand were analyzed by applying it to whole Jeju Island. SWAT model was applied to estimate the amount of evapotranspiration, which is a key factor in estimating demand, and watershed modeling was performed to reflect geographical features, weather, runoff and water use characteristics of Jeju Island. For the past period (1992~2013), demand of Jeju Island as a whole was analyzed as 427 mm per year, and it showed a relatively high demand around the eastern and western coastal regions. Annual demand and seasonal variation characteristics of 10 river basins with watershed area of $30km^2$ or more were also analyzed. In addition, by applying the cultivated area of each crop in 2020 in the future, it is estimated that the demand corresponding to the 10-year frequency drought is 54% of the amount demanded in the previous research. This is due to the difference in approach depending on the purpose of the demand calculation. From the viewpoint of water resource management and operation, additional demand is expected as much as the net consumption. However, from the actual supply perspective, it can be judged that a facility plan that meets the existing demand amount is necessary. In order to utilize the methodologies and results presented in this study in practice, it is necessary to make a reasonable discussion in terms of policy and institutional as well as engineering verification.

Using Spatial Data and Crop Growth Modeling to Predict Performance of South Korean Rice Varieties Grown in Western Coastal Plains in North Korea (공간정보와 생육모의에 의한 남한 벼 품종의 북한 서부지대 적응성 예측)

  • 김영호;김희동;한상욱;최재연;구자민;정유란;김재영;윤진일
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.224-236
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    • 2002
  • A long-term growth simulation was performed at 496 land units in the western coastal plains (WCP) of North Korea to test the potential adaptability of each land unit for growing South Korean rice cultivars. The land units for rice cultivation (CZU), each of them represented by a geographically referenced 5 by 5 km grid tell, were identified by analyzing satellite remote sensing data. Surfaces of monthly climatic normals for daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation number of rain days and solar radiation were generated at a 1 by 1 km interval by spatial statistical methods using observed data at 51 synoptic weather stations in North and South Korea during 1981-2000. Grid cells felling within a same CZU and, at the same time, corresponding to the satellite data- identified rice growing pixels were extracted and aggregated to make a spatially explicit climatic normals relevant to the rice growing area of the CZU. Daily weather dataset for 30 years was randomly generated from the monthly climatic normals of each CZU. Growth and development parameters of CERES-rice model suitable for 11 major South Korean cultivars were derived from long-term field observations. Eight treatments comprised of 2 transplanting dates $\times$ 2 cropping systems $\times$ 2 irrigation methods were assigned to each cultivar. Each treatment was simulated with the randomly generated 30 years' daily weather data (from planting to physiological maturity) for 496 land units in WCP to simulate the growth and yield responses to the interannual climate variation. The same model was run with the input data from the 3 major crop experiment stations in South Korea to obtain a 30 year normal performance of each cultivar, which was used as a "reference" for comparison. Results were analyzed with respect to spatial and temporal variation in yield and maturity, and used to evaluate the suitability of each land unit for growing a specific South Korean cultivar. The results may be utilized as decision aids for agrotechnology transfer to North Korea, for example, germplasm evaluation, resource allocation and crop calendar preparation.

The Brassica rapa Tissue-specific EST Database (배추의 조직 특이적 발현유전자 데이터베이스)

  • Yu, Hee-Ju;Park, Sin-Gi;Oh, Mi-Jin;Hwang, Hyun-Ju;Kim, Nam-Shin;Chung, Hee;Sohn, Seong-Han;Park, Beom-Seok;Mun, Jeong-Hwan
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.633-640
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    • 2011
  • Brassica rapa is an A genome model species for Brassica crop genetics, genomics, and breeding. With the completion of sequencing the B. rapa genome, functional analysis of the genome is forthcoming issue. The expressed sequence tags are fundamental resources supporting annotation and functional analysis of the genome including identification of tissue-specific genes and promoters. As of July 2011, 147,217 ESTs from 39 cDNA libraries of B. rapa are reported in the public database. However, little information can be retrieved from the sequences due to lack of organized databases. To leverage the sequence information and to maximize the use of publicly-available EST collections, the Brassica rapa tissue-specific EST database (BrTED) is developed. BrTED includes sequence information of 23,962 unigenes assembled by StackPack program. The unigene set is used as a query unit for various analyses such as BLAST against TAIR gene model, functional annotation using MIPS and UniProt, gene ontology analysis, and prediction of tissue-specific unigene sets based on statistics test. The database is composed of two main units, EST sequence processing and information retrieving unit and tissue-specific expression profile analysis unit. Information and data in both units are tightly inter-connected to each other using a web based browsing system. RT-PCR evaluation of 29 selected unigene sets successfully amplified amplicons from the target tissues of B. rapa. BrTED provided here allows the user to identify and analyze the expression of genes of interest and aid efforts to interpret the B. rapa genome through functional genomics. In addition, it can be used as a public resource in providing reference information to study the genus Brassica and other closely related crop crucifer plants.

Prospects for development of cosmetic industry using natural products in Chungbuk (충북지역의 천연 자원을 활용한 화장품 산업의 발전 전망)

  • Hwang, Hyung seo
    • Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2018.10a
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    • pp.26-27
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    • 2018
  • With entry into force of the Nagoya Protocol to promote the fair sharing of the benefits of accessing and utilizing genetic resources, much support has been given to research on the development of biomaterials and products using domestic natural resources. Conservation and resource-saving of native species became very important through Nagoya Protocol enactment. The trend of cosmetic industry has been shifing from use synthetic chemicals to natural biomaterials, due to the safety regulations on new materials, ban on animal experiments, and expansion of cosmeceuticals range. In addition, functional cosmetic range has been expanded from whitening, wrinkle improvement, and ultraviolet shielding, to hair loss, hair loss alleviation, acne relaxation, and moisturizing of atopic skin, thus causing the activation of research about field of efficacy evaluation on natural biomaterials and commercialization. Chungbuk province is fostering the bio industry as a key industry for regional economic growth. For this purpose, Osong Biotechnology Complex/Ochang Science Industrial Complex in middle area, Jecheon biovalley in northern region, and Chungju Enterprise city have been established, thus playing a pivotal role in Bio innovative cluster in Korea. In particular, it was established the osong cosmetics clinical research support center to develop the cosmetics industry in chungbuk, thereby supporting clinical trials, efficacy evaluations, overseas certification, and overseas market entry in order to advance into the global market. In addition, oriental plants such as astragalus propinquus, schisandra chinensis, eucommia, alpiniae oxyphyllae fructus and biancaea sappan are being actively studied as global cosmetic ingredients through the promotion of various national research and development projects using natural materials in chungbuk province. The chungbuk natural product industry is expected to grow further throughout cosmetics industry development in the future, as companies and research institutes are actively promoting the secure index of effective material in natural products and effective material commercialization.

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The Study of Antioxidant Properties, and Physicochemical and Sensory Characteristics of Steamed Barley Bread added with Ramie Leaf (모싯잎 가루를 첨가한 찰보리 찐빵의 항산화 활성, 이화학적 특성 및 관능적 품질 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun;Kim, Se-Jung;Yun, Jung-Mi
    • The Korean Journal of Food And Nutrition
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.249-255
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    • 2014
  • Increased consumption of a polysaccharide, ${\beta}$-glucans, in foods may prevent health related problems such as cancer, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. ${\beta}$-glucans is a fibrous polysaccharide having proven both functional and medicinal properties. Recently, the FDA recommends the consumption of oat or oat products containing a total of at least 3 grams of bea-glucans per day for health improvement. The content of ${\beta}$-glucans in barley was almost four times higher than that in oat. In this study, the physicochemical and sensory characteristics and biological properties of steamed barley bread added with ramie leaf powder was investigated. The study of sensory characteristics was performed using the Quantitative Descriptive Analysis (QDA). 30 panelists were selected among our university students. They then evaluated the different sensory characteristics, such as overall preference, color, flavor, chewiness, moistness and taste. The color and texture analyses were determined using a colorimeter and texture analyser, respectively. In the sensory, color and texture evaluation, barley bread with ramie leaf showed higher values than barley bread and wheat bread did. The physiological activities were investigated through the total phenol content and 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl(DPPH) radical scavenging activity. Hence, barley appears to be a suitable food resource for making bread. This study suggests that barley bread added with ramie leaf can be used as one of the processing methods in promoting the consumption of barley. It might also help with the improvement of barley food industry.

Assessment and Prediction of Stand Yield in Cryptomeria japonica Stands (삼나무 임분수확량 평가 및 예측)

  • Son, Yeong Mo;Kang, Jin Taek;Hwang, Jeong Sun;Park, Hyun;Lee, Kang Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.3
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    • pp.421-426
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this paper is to look into the growth of Cryptomeria japonica stand in South Korea along with the evaluation on their yields, followed by their carbon stocks and removals. A total of 106 sample plots were selected from Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and Jeju, where the groups of standard are grown. We only used 92 plots data except outlier. As part of the analysis, the Weibull diameter distribution was applied. In order to estimate the diameter distribution, the growth estimation equation for each of the growth factors including the height, the diameter at breast height, and the basal area was drafted out and the verification for each equation was examined. The site index for figuring out the forest productivity of Cryptomeria japonica stand for each district was also developed as a Schumacher model and 30yr was used as a reference age for the estimation of the site index. It was found that the site index for Cryptomeria japonica stand in South Korea ranges from 10 to 16 and this result was used as a standard for developing the stand yield table. According to the site 14 in the stand yield table, the mean annual increment (MAI) of the Cryptomeria japonica reaches $7.6m^3/ha$ on its 25yr and its growing stock is estimated to be at $190.1m^3/ha$. This volume is about $20m^3$ as high as that of the Chamaesyparis obtusa. Furthermore, the annual carbon absorptions for a Cryptomeria japonica stand reached the peak at 25yr, which is 2.14 tC/ha/yr, $7.83tCO_2/ha/yr$. When compared to the other conifers, this rate is slightly higher than that of a Chamaecyparis obtusa ($7.5tCO_2/ha/yr$) but lower than that of the Pinus koraiensis ($10.4tCO_2/ha/yr$) and Larix kaempferi ($11.2tCO_2/ha/yr$). With such research result as a base, it is necessary to come up with the ways to enhance the utilization of Cryptomeria japonica as timbers, besides making use of their growth data.

Evaluation of the Storage Characteristics of Kangjung Added with Gromwell Extracts (지치 추출물 첨가에 의한 강정의 저장성 연장 효과)

  • Kim, Jin-Sook;Kim, Tae-Young;Kim, Sang-Bum
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.791-800
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    • 2006
  • This study examined the effects of gromwell (Lithospermum erythrorhizon) extracts on the storage characteristics of Kangjung. At an increase of $0{\sim}0.25%$, there was no significant difference in the moisture content of wild and cultivated gromwell extract added to Kangjung, whereas there was a significant difference when increased to 0.5%. When compared, the occurrence of lipid oxidation among the controlled gromwell extract group stored at $60^{\circ}C$, resulted in peroxide values exceeding 40 meq/kg which is a maximum value for Hankwa within 12 hours of storage. However, at an increase of 0.25%, the cultivated gromwell extract added group reached limits within 16 hours. Furthermore, at a 0.5% increase in cultivated gromwell and 0.25% in wild gromwell, extract added groups exceeded this limit within 20 hours of storage. Gromwell added Kangjung, a fried food, showed efficiency in suppressing oxidation of fat, more so in the wild gromwell than the cultivated gromwell. In addition, efficiency in suppressing oxidation of fat increased at the 0.5% level than the 0.25% level. In conclusion, it is believed that an unused pigment resource called Lithospermum erythrorhizon, normally reserved for medicinal use, can be distributed as a safe food additive. In addition, as Lithospermum erythrorhizon is a natural antioxidant in fried foods, we believe this satisfies the demand for natural food.