• 제목/요약/키워드: Reserve power

검색결과 217건 처리시간 0.024초

회피비용을 고려한 EGEAS 모형 개발과 전원개발계획의 최적화 (A Modified EGEAS Model with Avoided Cost and the Optimization of Generation Expansion Plan)

  • 이재관;홍성의
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.117-117
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    • 1992
  • Pubilc utility industries including the electric utility industry are facing a new stream of privatization com-petition with the private sector and deregulation. The necewssity to solve now and in the future power supply and demand problems has been increasing through the sophisticated generation expansion plan(GEP) approach con-sidering not only KEPCo's supply-side resources but also outside resources such as non-utility generation(NUG) demand-side management (DSM). Under the environmental situation in the current electric utility industry a new approach is needed to acquire multiple resources competitively. This study presents the development of a modified electric generation expansion analysis system(EGEAS) model with avoided cost based on the existing EGEAS model which is a dynamic program to develope an optimal generation expansion plan for the electric utility. We are trying to find optimal GEP in Korea's case using our modified model and observe the difference for the level of reliabilities such as the reserve margin(RM) loss of load probability(LOLP) and expected unserved energy percent(EUEP) between the existing EGEAS model and our model. In addition we are trying to calculate avoided cost for NUG resources which is a criterion to evaluate herem and test possibility of connection calculation of avoided cost with GEP implementation using our modified model. The results of our case study are as follows. First we were able to find that the generation expansion plan and reliability measures were largely influenced by capacity size and loading status of NUG resources, Second we were able to find that avoided cost which are criteria to evaluate NUG resources could be calculated by using our modified EGEAS model with avoided cost. We also note that avoided costs were calculated by our model in connection with generation expansion plans.

옵션 내재 변동성곡선의 정보효과와 금융 유통산업에의 시사점 (Information in the Implied Volatility Curve of Option Prices and Implications for Financial Distribution Industry)

  • 김상수;유원석;손삼호
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제13권5호
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the importance of the slope and curvature of the volatility curve implied in option prices in the KOSPI 200 options index. A number of studies examine the implied volatility curve, however, these usually focus on cross-sectional characteristics such as the volatility smile. Contrary to previous studies, we focus on time-series characteristics; we investigate correlation dynamics among slope, curvature, and level of the implied volatility curve to capture market information embodied therein. Our study may provide useful implications for investors to utilize current market expectations in managing portfolios dynamically and efficiently. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical purpose, we gathered daily KOSPI200 index option prices executed at 2:50 pm in the Korean Exchange distribution market during the period of January 2, 2004 and January 31, 2012. In order to measure slope and curvature of the volatility curve, we use approximated delta distance; the slope is defined as the difference of implied volatilities between 15 delta call options and 15 delta put options; the curvature is defined as the difference between out-of-the-money (OTM) options and at-the-money (ATM) options. We use generalized method of moments (GMM) and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method to verify correlations among level, slope, and curvature of the implied volatility curve with statistical support. Results - We find that slope as well as curvature is positively correlated with volatility level, implying that put option prices increase in a downward market. Further, we find that curvature and slope are positively correlated; however, the relation is weakened at deep moneyness. The results lead us to examine whether slope decreases monotonically as the delta increases, and it is verified with statistical significance that the deeper the moneyness, the lower the slope. It enables us to infer that when volatility surges above a certain level due to any tail risk, investors would rather take long positions in OTM call options, expecting market recovery in the near future. Conclusions - Our results are the evidence of the investor's increasing hedging demand for put options when downside market risks are expected. Adding to this, the slope and curvature of the volatility curve may provide important information regarding the timing of market recovery from a nosedive. For financial product distributors, using the dynamic relation among the three key indicators of the implied volatility curve might be helpful in enhancing profit and gaining trust and loyalty. However, it should be noted that our implications are limited since we do not provide rigorous evidence for the predictability power of volatility curves. Meaning, we need to verify whether the slope and curvature of the volatility curve have statistical significance in predicting the market trough. As one of the verifications, for instance, the performance of trading strategy based on information of slope and curvature could be tested. We reserve this for the future research.

기온과 특수일 효과를 고려하여 시계열 모형을 활용한 일별 최대 전력 수요 예측 연구 (Forecasting daily peak load by time series model with temperature and special days effect)

  • 이진영;김삼용
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.161-171
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    • 2019
  • 일별 최대전력 수요 예측은 국가의 전력 수급운영에 중요한 과제로서 과거부터 다양한 방법들이 끊임없이 연구되어 왔다. 일별 최대전력 수요를 정확히 예측함으로써 발전설비에 대한 일일 운용계획을 작성하고 효율적인 설비 운용을 통해 불필요한 에너지 자원의 소비를 감소하는데 기여할 수 있으며 여름 겨울철 냉난방수요로 인해 발생하는 전력소비 과다로 인한 전력예비율 감소 문제 등에 선제적으로 대비할 수 있는 장점을 가진다. 이러한 일별 최대전력수요 예측을 위하여 본 논문에서는 Seasonal ARIMA, TBATS, Seasonal Reg-ARIMA, NNETAR 모형에 평일, 주말, 특수일에 대한 효과와 온도에 대한 영향을 함께 고려하여 다음날의 일별 최대전력을 예측하는 모형을 연구하였다. 본 논문을 통한 모형들의 예측 성능 평가 결과 요일, 온도를 고려할 수 있는 Seasonal Reg-ARIMA 모형과 NNETAR 모형이 이를 고려할 수 없는 다른 시계열 모형보다 우수한 예측 성능을 나타내었고 그 중 인공신경망을 활용한 NNETAR 모형의 예측 성능이 가장 우수하였다.

남미지역 에너지안보 협력과 통합 가능성 연구 : 브라질의 리더십 역할 고찰 (A Study of Energy Security Cooperation and its Integration Potential in South America through Brazilian Leadership)

  • 하상섭
    • 국제지역연구
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.83-108
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    • 2011
  • 남미지역은 재생에너지 및 비-재생에너지 분야에서 풍부한 에너지 보유량을 자랑하는 지역이다. 하지만 오늘날 이 지역의 에너지 안보는 에너지의 공급과 수요의 지역 간 균형을 맞추지 못하면서 이웃 국가 간 갈등과 분열을 보이고 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 21세기 들어 이 지역에서 일고 있는 남미지역 에너지안보 공동 구축 움직임은 에너지 국제협력과 통합이라는 새로운 움직임을 낳고 있다. 이 논문은 이러한 움직임을 고찰해 보고 남미지역 에너지 협력과 통합의 가능성을 다양한 관점에서 살펴보고자 한다. 특히 이를 주도적으로 리드하고 있는 남미지역 에너지 대국 브라질의 사례를 통해 더욱 심도있게 분석 고찰해 본다. 에너지협력과 통합은 이들 지역 공동체에게 막대한 경제적 이익을 가져다 줄 수 있다. 하지만 문제는 브라질이 이들 지역 공동체 개별 국가들을 에너지협력 및 통합체에 대한 제도적 장치를 얼마나 잘 리드해 가느냐에 달려있다. 이 논문은 이러한 제도적 취약성과 다양한 내부 갈등의 배경들과 원인들을 분석해 향후 통합 가능성을 진단해 보고자 한다.

밭토양(土壤)에 대(對)한 가리(加里) 검정(檢定) (Soil Testing for Potassium in Upland Soils -Review on the Methodologies-)

  • 홍종운
    • 한국토양비료학회지
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.153-170
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    • 1977
  • 밭 토양(土壤)에 대(對)한 가리검정(加里檢定) 방법(方法)의 발전(發展) 방향(方向)을 염두(念頭)에 두고 이제까지 알려진 토양(土壤)의 가리(加里) 공급능(供給能) 평가(評價) 방법(方法) 및 토양유효가리(土壤有效加里) 검정(檢定) 방법(方法)들의 원리(原理)와 실제(實際) 활용성(活用性)들을 고찰(考察)했으며, 우리나라 밭 토양(土樓)의 가리(加里) 공급능(供給能)과 관련(關聯)된 화학적(化學的) 성질(性質) 및 밭 작물(作物)들의 가리(加里) 요구(要求) 특성(特性) 등(等)을 검토(檢討)했다. 다음은 본고찰(本考察)의 요지(要旨)이다. 1. 이제까지 상당(相當)히 많은 방법(方法)들이 토양(土壤)의 가리공급능(加里供給能) 평가(評價)와 유효가리(有效加里) 검정방법(檢定方法)으로 제안(提案)돼 왔다. 이들은 성질상(性質上) 두 가지로 크게 나뉘는데, 하나는 용량인자(容量因子)를 측정(測定)하는 방법(方法)과 다른 하나는 강도인자(强度因子)를 측정(測定)하는 방법(方法)이 그것이다. 용량인자(容量因子)의 경우(境遇)에는 대개(大槪) 치환성(置換性) 가리(加里)와 비치환성(非置換性) 가리(加里) 일부(一部)를 측정(測定)하고, 강도인자(强度因子)의 경우(境遇)에는 주요(主要) 양(陽)이온의 활동도비(活動度比) 및 가리(加里) 치환(置換) Enegy에 대(對)해 관심(關心)을 둔다. 2. 관심(關心)의 대상(對象)이 되는 부분(部分)의 가리(加里)의 침출(浸出) 방법(方法)으로는 화학적(化學的)로는 침출법(浸出法), 전기접근법(電氣送析法) 및 이온 교환법(交換法) 등(等)이 알려져 있다. 그러나 방법(方法)의 간이성(簡易性) 때문에 화학적(化學的) 침출법(浸出法)이 널리 쓰이고 있다. 새로이 제안(提案)된 전기고도여과법(Electro-Ultra-Filtration)도 방법(方法)의 간이성(簡易性)과 이론적(理論的) 타당성(妥當性)을 고려(考慮)할 때 고찰(考察) 활용(活用)을 위(爲)해 연구(硏究)할 필요(必要)가 있다. 3. 강도인자(强度因子)를 고려(考慮)한 방법(方法)들은 이론적(理論的) 타당성(妥當性)은 높으나 수행상(逢行上)의 복잡성(複雜性)때문에 다량(多量)의 업무(業務)를 효(要)하는 토양검정(土壤檢定)에 활용(活用)키는 힘들다. 4. 치환성(置換性) 가리(加里)는 수용성(水溶性) 가리(加里)의 제1차(第一次) 급원(給源)이며 장기간(長期間)에 걸쳐 작물(作物)에게 유효(有效)한 것으로 알려진 비치환성(非置換性) 가리함량(加里含量)에 대(對)한 지표(指標)도 되며 측정법(測定法)의 간이성(簡易性)이 높은 점(點)으로 보아 토양검정(土壤檢定)에서 채택(採擇)하기 알맞은 검정(檢定) 대상(對象)이다. 5. 작물(作物)에 의(依)한 가리흡수(加里吸收)의 난이도(難易度)는 유효가리(有效加里)의 함량(含量)에만 의(依)해 결정(決定)되지 않으므로 이 측정치(測定値)를 작물(作物)에 대(對)한 가리비료(加里肥料) 시용양(施用量) 추천(推薦)을 위(爲)해 활용(活用)코저 할 때는 총(總) CEC에 대(對)한 치환성(置換性) 가리(加里) 포화도(飽和度)로 따지는 것이 무난(無難)한 것 같다. 6. 수개(數個)의 포장(團場) 시험(試驗) 성적(成績)과 pot 시험성적(試驗成績)들은 토양(土壤)의 가리(加里) 포화도(飽和度)가 비교적(比較的) 무난(無難)한 가리비료(加里肥料) 소요량(所要量) 추천(推薦)의 지표(指標)가 됨을 시사(示唆)한 바도 있다.

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Wearable Computers

  • Cho, Gil-Soo;Barfield, Woodrow;Baird, Kevin
    • 섬유기술과 산업
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    • 제2권4호
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    • pp.490-508
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    • 1998
  • One of the latest fields of research in the area of output devices is tactual display devices [13,31]. These tactual or haptic devices allow the user to receive haptic feedback output from a variety of sources. This allows the user to actually feel virtual objects and manipulate them by touch. This is an emerging technology and will be instrumental in enhancing the realism of wearable augmented environments for certain applications. Tactual displays have previously been used for scientific visualization in virtual environments by chemists and engineers to improve perception and understanding of force fields and of world models populated with the impenetrable. In addition to tactual displays, the use of wearable audio displays that allow sound to be spatialized are being developed. With wearable computers, designers will soon be able to pair spatialized sound to virtual representations of objects when appropriate to make the wearable computer experience even more realistic to the user. Furthermore, as the number and complexity of wearable computing applications continues to grow, there will be increasing needs for systems that are faster, lighter, and have higher resolution displays. Better networking technology will also need to be developed to allow all users of wearable computers to have high bandwidth connections for real time information gathering and collaboration. In addition to the technology advances that make users need to wear computers in everyday life, there is also the desire to have users want to wear their computers. In order to do this, wearable computing needs to be unobtrusive and socially acceptable. By making wearables smaller and lighter, or actually embedding them in clothing, users can conceal them easily and wear them comfortably. The military is currently working on the development of the Personal Information Carrier (PIC) or digital dog tag. The PIC is a small electronic storage device containing medical information about the wearer. While old military dog tags contained only 5 lines of information, the digital tags may contain volumes of multi-media information including medical history, X-rays, and cardiograms. Using hand held devices in the field, medics would be able to call this information up in real time for better treatment. A fully functional transmittable device is still years off, but this technology once developed in the military, could be adapted tp civilian users and provide ant information, medical or otherwise, in a portable, not obstructive, and fashionable way. Another future device that could increase safety and well being of its users is the nose on-a-chip developed by the Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee. This tiny digital silicon chip about the size of a dime, is capable of 'smelling' natural gas leaks in stoves, heaters, and other appliances. It can also detect dangerous levels of carbon monoxide. This device can also be configured to notify the fire department when a leak is detected. This nose chip should be commercially available within 2 years, and is inexpensive, requires low power, and is very sensitive. Along with gas detection capabilities, this device may someday also be configured to detect smoke and other harmful gases. By embedding this chip into workers uniforms, name tags, etc., this could be a lifesaving computational accessory. In addition to the future safety technology soon to be available as accessories are devices that are for entertainment and security. The LCI computer group is developing a Smartpen, that electronically verifies a user's signature. With the increase in credit card use and the rise in forgeries, is the need for commercial industries to constantly verify signatures. This Smartpen writes like a normal pen but uses sensors to detect the motion of the pen as the user signs their name to authenticate the signature. This computational accessory should be available in 1999, and would bring increased peace of mind to consumers and vendors alike. In the entertainment domain, Panasonic is creating the first portable hand-held DVD player. This device weight less than 3 pounds and has a screen about 6' across. The color LCD has the same 16:9 aspect ratio of a cinema screen and supports a high resolution of 280,000 pixels and stereo sound. The player can play standard DVD movies and has a hour battery life for mobile use. To summarize, in this paper we presented concepts related to the design and use of wearable computers with extensions to smart spaces. For some time, researchers in telerobotics have used computer graphics to enhance remote scenes. Recent advances in augmented reality displays make it possible to enhance the user's local environment with 'information'. As shown in this paper, there are many application areas for this technology such as medicine, manufacturing, training, and recreation. Wearable computers allow a much closer association of information with the user. By embedding sensors in the wearable to allow it to see what the user sees, hear what the user hears, sense the user's physical state, and analyze what the user is typing, an intelligent agent may be able to analyze what the user is doing and try to predict the resources he will need next or in the near future. Using this information, the agent may download files, reserve communications bandwidth, post reminders, or automatically send updates to colleagues to help facilitate the user's daily interactions. This intelligent wearable computer would be able to act as a personal assistant, who is always around, knows the user's personal preferences and tastes, and tries to streamline interactions with the rest of the world.

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한국전쟁의 교훈과 대비 -병력수(兵力數) 및 부대수(部隊數)를 중심으로- (The lesson From Korean War)

  • 윤일영
    • 안보군사학연구
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    • 통권8호
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    • pp.49-168
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    • 2010
  • Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.

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