• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.187-199
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• 2022

Kriging metamodel, as a flexible machine learning method for approximating deterministic analysis models of an engineering system, has been widely used for efficiently estimating slope reliability in recent years. However, the autocorrelation function (ACF), a key input to Kriging that affects the accuracy of reliability estimation, is usually selected based on empiricism. This paper proposes an adaption of the Kriging method, named as Genetic Algorithm optimized Whittle-Matérn Kriging (GAWMK), for addressing this issue. The non-classical two-parameter Whittle-Matérn (WM) function, which can represent different ACFs in the Matérn family by controlling a smoothness parameter, is adopted in GAWMK to avoid subjectively selecting ACFs. The genetic algorithm is used to optimize the WM model to adaptively select the optimal autocorrelation structure of the GAWMK model. Monte Carlo simulation is then performed based on GAWMK for a subsequent slope reliability analysis. Applications to one explicit analytical example and two slope examples are presented to illustrate and validate the proposed method. It is found that reliability results estimated by the Kriging models using randomly chosen ACFs might be biased. The proposed method performs reasonably well in slope reliability estimation.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산유체공학회 2005년도 추계 학술대회논문집
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• pp.99-104
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• 2005

For the efficient reliability analysis, Bi-direction two-point approximation(BTPA) method is developed which solves shortcomings of conventional two-point approximation(TPA) methods that generate an approximate surface with low accuracy or sometimes do an unstable approximate surface. The conventional reliability based design optimization(RBDO) methods require high computational cost compared with the deterministic design optimization(DO) methods. To overcome the computational inefficiency of RBDO, the approximate reliability analysis approaches on the TPA surface are proposed. Using these FORM and SORM analysis strategies, multi-point aerodynamic-structure interacted shape design optimizations with uncertainty are performed very efficiently.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.87-106
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• 2016

This paper deals with the reliability analysis of design formulations derived for predicting the punching shear capacity of FRP-reinforced two-way slabs. Firstly, a new design code formulation was derived by means of gene expression programming. This formulation differs from the existing ones as the slab length (L) was introduced in the equation. Next, the proposed formulation was tested for its generalization capability by a parametric study. Then, the stochastic analyses of derived and existing formulations were performed by Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the reliability analyses of these equations were carried out based on the results of stochastic analysis and the ultimate state function of ASCE-7 and ACI-318 (2011). The results indicate that the prediction performance of new formulation is significantly higher as compared to available design equations and its reliability index is within acceptable limits.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 1990년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.85-90
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• 1990

Current steel pile foundation design is bared an WSD, but the reliability based design method is more rational than the WSD. For this reason, this study proposes a reliability Index of the pile foundation by LFD which is most common type of pile foundation, and also proposes the theoretical bases of nominal safety factors of stability analysis by introducing the reliability theory. The measured bearing capacity data are analyzed to the descriptive statistics and classified into the four models of uncorrelated -normal(UNNO), uncorrelated -nonnormal(UNNN), correlated -normal(CONO), and correlated nonnormal (CONN). This study presents the comparisons of reliability index and check points using the AFSOM with respect to the four models as well as BASIC program.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2007년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.803-808
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• 2007

LCCA module enabling to estimate LCC and analyze time-variant reliability index of a plate girder bridge was developed. The developed module was based on the designed data structure following the standardized methodology of ISO/STEP, LCCA module consisted of LCC estimation module, which is composed of six sub modules according to the cost category, and reliability index analysis module, which is composed of time-variant corrosion sub module, time-variant live load sub module, and element reliability analysis sub module, The effectiveness of the developed LCCA module was verified by estimating LCC and analyzing time-variant reliability index of a plate girder bridge on the basis of the constructed test database.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.121-132
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• 2009

A systematic reliability evaluation approach for torsional divergence analysis of long span suspension bridges is proposed, consisting of the first order reliability method and a simplified torsional divergence analysis method. The proposed method was implemented in the deterministic torsional divergence analysis program SIMTDB through a new strategy involving interfacing the proposed method with SIMTDB via a freely available MATLAB software tool (FERUM). A numerical example involving a detailed computational model of a long span suspension bridge with a main span of 888 m is presented to demonstrate the applicability and merits of the proposed method and the associated software strategy. Finally, the most influential random variables on the reliability of long span suspension bridges against torsional divergence failure are identified by a sensitivity analysis.

• 항공우주기술
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.183-193
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• 2008

본 논문은 KSLV-I 상단부에 대한 고장모드 분석 결과와 시스템 수준의 비행시험 신뢰도 모델을 기술한다. 먼저, KSLV-I 상단부의 14개의 주요 기능과 비행시험 임무 프로파일을 분석하고, 기능 분석 결과와 임무 구간별 수행 기능 목록을 바탕으로 시스템 체계에 따른 상단부의 고장모드 계층 구조와 시스템 수준의 비행시험 신뢰도 모델을 구성한다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2008

The conventional design of bridge piers against scour uses scour equations which involve number of uncertain flow, sediments and structural parameters. The inherent high uncertainties in these parameters suggest that the reliability of piers must be assessed to ensure desirable safety of bridges against scour. In the present study, a procedure for the reliability assessment of bridge piers, installed in main and flood channels, against scour has been presented. To study the influence of various random variables on piers' reliability sensitivity analysis has been carried out. To incorporate the reliability in the evaluation of safety factor, a simplified relationship between safety factor and reliability index has been proposed. Effects of clear water (flood channel) and live bed scour (main channel) are highlighted on pier reliability. In addition to these, an attempt has also been made to explain the failure of Black mount bridge of New Zealand based on its pier's reliability analysis. Some parametric studies have also been included to obtain the results of practical interest.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.175-186
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• 2018

With the continuous increase of span lengths, modern bridges are becoming much more flexible and more prone to flutter under wind excitations. A reasonable probabilistic flutter analysis of long-span bridges involving random and uncertain variables may have to be taken into consideration. This paper presents a method for estimating the reliability index and failure probability due to flutter, which considers the very important variables including the extreme wind velocity at bridge site, damping ratio, mathematical modeling, and flutter derivatives. The Aizhai Bridge in China is selected as an example to demonstrate the numerical procedure for the flutter reliability analysis. In the presented method, the joint probability density function of wind speed and wind direction at the deck level of the bridge is first established. Then, based on the fundamental theories of structural reliability, the reliability index and failure probability due to flutter of the Aizhai Bridge is investigated by applying the Monte Carlo method and the first order reliability method (FORM). The probabilistic flutter analysis can provide a guideline in the design of long-span bridges and the results show that the structural damping and flutter derivatives have significant effects on the flutter reliability, more accurate and reliable data of which is needed.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.70-79
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• 2020

This paper describes a comparative study of characteristics of probabilistic design using various reliability analysis methods in the structure design of an automatic salt collector. The thickness sizing variables of the main structural member were considered to be random variables, including the uncertainty of corrosion, which would be an inevitable hazard in the work environment of the automatic salt collector. Probabilistic performance functions were selected from the strength performances of the automatic salt collector structure. First-order reliability method, second-order reliability method, mean value reliability method, and adaptive importance sampling method were applied during the reliability analyses. The probabilistic design performances such as reliability probability and numerical costs based on the reliability analysis methods were compared to the Monte Carlo simulation results. The adaptive importance sampling method showed the most rational results for the probabilistic structure design of the automatic salt collector.