• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제41권5호
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• pp.575-589
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• 2012

This paper presents a reliability analysis of steel I-beams with rectangular web openings, based on a combination of the common probabilistic reliability methods, such as RSM, FORM and SORM and using data obtained from experimental tests performed at the Istanbul Technical University. A procedure is proposed to obtain the optimum design load that can be applied to this type of structural members, by taking into account specified target values of reliability indices for ultimate and serviceability limit states. The goal of the paper is to present an algorithm to obtain more realistic and economical design of beams and to demonstrate that it can be applied efficiently to steel I-beams with web openings. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed allowing to ranking the random variables according to their importance in the reliability analysis.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2006

Many software reliability growth models(SRGM) have been proposed since the software reliability issue was raised in 1972. The technology to estimate and grow the reliability of developing S/W to target value during testing phase were developed using them. Most of these propositions assumed the S/W debugging testing efforts be constant or even did not consider them. A few papers were presented as the software reliability evaluation considering the testing effort was important afterwards. The testing effort forms which have been presented by this kind of papers were exponential, Rayleigh, Weibull, or logistic functions, and one of these 4 types was used as a testing effort function depending on the S/W developing circumstances. I propose the methology to evaluate the SRGM using least square estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for those 4 functions, and then examine parameters applying actual data adopted from real field test of developing S/W.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2010년도 춘계 학술발표회
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• pp.379-389
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• 2010

It is very important to determine a target probability of failure in reliability based design such as an allowable factor of safety in working stress design because they are indices to judge the stability of structures. We have carried out reliability analyses of nationwide gravity type quay walls and found that sliding and foundation failures of quay walls were dominant failure modes for every case of loads. And a target probability of failure for bearing capacity of foundation of quay wall was also determined in this study. Of several approaches which have been suggested until now, a couple of reasonable approaches were used. Firstly, in order to consider the safety margin of structures which have been executed so far, the reliability levels of existing structures were assessed. And then a mean probability of failure for the quay walls was estimated. In addition, life cycle cost(LCC) analyses for representative structures were performed. Probabilities of failure for several quay walls were calculated with changing the width of each quay wall section. LCC of quay wall which is requiring case by case during the service life was evaluated, and also the optimum probability of failure of quay wall which minimizes LCC was found. Finally, reasonable target probabilities of failure were suggested by comparing with mean probability of failure of existing structures.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.225-229
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• 2014

A one-shot device is defined as a product, system, weapon, or equipment that can be used only once. After use, the device is destroyed or must undergo extensive rebuild. Determining the reliability of a one-shot device poses a unique challenge to the manufacturers and users due to the destructive nature and costs of the testing. This paper presents a reliability growth prediction for a one-shot system. It is assumed that 1) test duration is discrete(i.e. trials or rounds); 2) trials are statistically independent; 3) the number of failures for a given system configuration is distributed according to a binomial distribution; and 4) the cumulative expected number of failures through any sequence of configurations is given by AMSAA model. When the system development is represented by three configurations and the number of trials and failures during configurations are given, the AMSAA model parameters and reliability at configuration 3 are estimated by using a reliability growth analysis software. Further, if the reliability growth predictions do not meet the target reliability, the sample size of an additional test is determined for achieving the target reliability.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제38권10호
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• pp.1179-1184
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• 2014

일반적으로 신뢰도 배분은 시스템 개발 초기단계에 시스템의 신뢰도 목표 값을 하위 모듈에 배분하기 위해 사용된다. 본 연구에서는 KTX 승강문 시스템의 목표 신뢰도를 하위 모듈에 배분하기 위해 Comprehensive 배분방법을 제시한다. Comprehensive 배분방법은 시스템의 신뢰도를 배분하기 위해 각 모듈에 대한 고장의 중요도, 작동시간 비율, 위험도, 복잡도, 고장률, 수리/정비성, 개발완성도, 사용환경 가혹도, 신뢰도 달성비용의 평가항목을 고려한다. 승강문 시스템의 목표 신뢰도를 만족하기 위해서 시스템을 구성하는 4 가지 모듈의 $B_{10}$ 수명을 제시한다.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.31-45
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• 2009

시스템의 성능과 안전성을 보장하기 위해서는 개발 초기부터 신뢰도에 대한 연구가 이루어져야 한다. 시스템의 목표 신뢰도를 수립하고, 이를 달성하기 위하여 하부시스템 및 부분품에 신뢰도를 할당해야 한다. 시스템의 획득 및 개발에 있어서 성능이 우수하고 비용이 저렴하더라도 고장이 빈번하게 발생한다면 원활한 임무 수행에 많은 영향을 미치고, 막대한 운영유지비용이 소요될 것이다. 본 연구에서는 신뢰도 할당 모형과 운영 유지비용과의 관계를 알아보기 위하여 기존의 알려진 신뢰도 할당 모형들을 검토 및 평가하였다. 신뢰도 할당모형의 평가는 차기 개발 함정용 디젤 엔진을 대상으로 하였으며, 다양한 신뢰도 할당 모형에 목표 신뢰도를 고려하여 신뢰도를 할당하고, 현재 운영하는 함정용 디젤 엔진의 자료를 바탕으로 시뮬레이션을 수행하여 운영유지비용을 최소화하는 신뢰도 할당 모형을 선정하였다.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• 제13권 2호
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• pp.191-198
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• 2022

FIB is introduced as the sole guideline for the design purpose that results in a practical relationship for the torsional capacity of concrete beams strengthened with carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP). This study applies first-order reliability method to assess the reliability evaluation of the torsional capacity of CFRP-strengthened beams on the basis of FIB guidelines. In terms of steel reinforcement losses, this study applies a corrosion model to investigate the ceaseless deterioration of the existing structure. Hence, the average of reliability indices varies between 2.68 and 2.80, indicating the reliability viewpoint of the design methodologies. The average values are somehow low compared to the target values of reliability (3.0 or 3.5) applied in the calibration stage of the FIB guideline. In this way, the partial safety factors may change in the forthcoming guideline revisions. For this aim, the reliability of strengthening ratio was applied to assess the variation in the average value of the reliability index with different partial safety factors. The performance of parametric study for the factor proved that minimum values of 1.60 and 2.32 are required for target values of reliability (3.0 and 3.5), respectively.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.201-207
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• 2018

Purpose: To develop the reliability growth planning for a subsystem of guided weapon system using PM2-Continuous model. Methods: The target MTBF of the subsystem is set by allocating the system target MTBF to the lower level, where ARINC method is applied. Other model parameters such as initial MTBF, management strategy ratio and average fix effectiveness factor are chosen from historical growth parameter estimates. Given the values of model parameters, the reliability growth planning curve using PM2-Continuous model is constructed and the sensitivity analyses are performed for the changes of model parameters. Results: We have developed the reliability growth plan for a subsystem of guided weapon system using PM2-Continuous model. It was found that the smaller the ratio of initial MTBF to target MTBF, the smaller the management strategy ratio, the smaller the average fix effectiveness factor, and the shorter the development test period, the higher reliability growth is required. Conclusion: The result of this study will be used as a basis for establishing the reliability growth plan, the test period setting and the budget appropriation for the similar system entering the system development stage in the future.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제18권10호
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• pp.1722-1729
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• 2004

This paper presents a design methodology for determining configurations of slider air bearings considering the randomness of the air-bearing surface (ABS) geometry by using the iSIGHT. A reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problem is formulated to minimize the variations in the mean values of the flying heights from a target value while satisfying the desired probabilistic constraints keeping the pitch and roll angles within a suitable range. The reliability analysis is employed to estimate how the fabrication tolerances of individual slider parameters affect the final flying attitude tolerances. The proposed approach first solves the deterministic optimization problem. Then, beginning with this solution, the RBDO is continued with the reliability constraints affected by the random variables. Reliability constraints overriding the constraints of the deterministic optimization attempt to drive the design to a reliability solution with minimum increase in the objective. The simulation results of the RBDO are listed in comparison with the values of the initial design and the results of the deterministic optimization, respectively. To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the reliability analyses are simply carried out by using the mean value first-order second-moment (MVFO) method. The Monte Carlo simulation of the RBDO's results is also performed to estimate the efficiency of the proposed approach. Those results are demonstrated to satisfy all the desired probabilistic constraints, where the target reliability level for constraints is defined as 0.8.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2008년도 추계 학술발표회
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• pp.508-518
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• 2008

Reliability and sensitivity analysis of the design parameters for a section of caisson type quaywall which is the most applicable in Korea were performed. It was tried to estimate probabilities of failure for the system of the multiple failure modes and to analyze LCC in the quaywall structure. The reliability analysis was performed by FORM. Also, sensitivity indices were estimated using the reliability indices, which may be used inferring effects of each design parameter on the reliability indices. As a result, the coefficient of friction between caisson and rubble, the moment by self weight and the moment of resistance mostly affected on the reliability indices in the sliding, overturning and foundation failure, respectively. System reliability theorem was applied in order to estimate the probabilities of failure for the system of the multiple failure modes. As the results of estimation of the probabilities of failure for the system, all cases were more conservative than those for the elements, according to both failure mode and load combination applied to series system. It entirely exceeded the target reliability index, but it was consistent with the theorem. According to the optimum LCC with the width of the caisson, the probability of failure exceeded the target probability of failure at then time. Therefore, it was judged to be insufficient to the practical application.