• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.111-126
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• 2020

Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.27-54
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• 2011

This research attempted to present the efficiency of culture marketing to the organizations producing culture-art products and to the companies utilizing art and suggest the practical viewpoints to the culture and art policy agencies. The methodology used was to take an in-depth look at the consumer value cognition and benefits of culture-art products in contemporary consumption culture from a social context by conducting a total of 12 Focus Group Interviews, consisting of 58 males and females in their 10s~50s who can represent culture-art product consumers. The culture-art products refer to the artist's spiritual, actual act of creating or to the end products with economic exchange value. They are also sense goods and merit goods that affect the mental state of consumers. By looking at culture-art products as consumer merit goods, this research examined consumer value cognition of culture-art products based on the characteristics culture-art products. As a result, this research determined that consumers view culture-art products largely as 'aesthetic and sensuous merit goods', 'actual and individual merit goods', and 'social public property'. As 'aesthetic and sensuous merit goods', culture-art products are considered as the products of an artist's creative activities; as 'social public property', culture-art products have a public value in terms of ownership; and as 'actual and individual merit goods', culture-art products act on the spirit and reality of a consumer in terms of consumption. As a result of analyzing the benefits of culture-art products based on the above-mentioned consumer value cognition, it was observed that the benefits of culture-art-product consumption are chiefly divided into 'aesthetic character-oriented', 'social relationships-oriented', and 'individual benefits-oriented' depending on how consumers see culture-art products. A 3-conceptional structures model was constructed according to the relationship between consumer value cognition of culture-art products and the benefits. This research revealed that consumers who pursue the aesthetic value or sense of beauty as the central reason experience culture-art products themselves, enjoy intellectual quests, and pursue their satisfaction by expressing affection for and interests in culture-art products. On the other hand, consumers who pursue social value as the central reason as a means of communication by perceiving culture-art products as a public property of society, pursue sympathy with people close to them through the symbolic power of culture-art product consumption or the joy of self-display. Consumers who perceive art products as spiritual and actual merit goods and pursue consumer value as a central reason want to express their own personality, develop themselves, and differentiate themselves or identify themselves with others in the context of social relations for the ultimate goal of living a happy and satisfied life while pursuing to satisfy imminent and actual necessities as emotional stability and rest. The fact that culture-art product benefits could vary according to how a consumer perceives them implies that consumer value cognition of culture-art products and their benefits significant affect consumers' decision in choosing and consuming various culture-art products. It turned out that such benefits from the consumption of culture-art products reflect the complex contemporary consumption culture of rational consumption, symbolic consumption, experiential consumption, and social reflective consumption. This research identified conceptional structures of consumer value cognition on culture-art products and benefits that can be used for studying and understanding culture-art products consumers who pursue a variety of consumption values. They can also be used by private companies in utilizing art, as well as by national agencies in enhancing the population's quality of life. However, since this research could only conceptually grasp consumer perception of culture-art products and reveal the dimension of classification due to its own limitations arising from characteristic investigation, quantitative data on the benefits of culture-art product consumers should be measured in future studies through a quantitative investigation, while using the value cognition of culture-art products and the individual characteristics of consumers as variables based on this research.

• Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.1-34
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• 1974

These experiments pertain to various factors influencing the quantitative characters of cocoon crops in summer and early autumn seasons. Initially, in order to establish the possible ways of the silkworm rearing more than three times a year in Korea, the author attempted to get further information about the various factors affecting the cocoon crop in every silkworm rearing season. The trials were conducted eleven times a year at four places for three years. The field trial was conducted with 19 typical sericultural farmers who had been surveyed. At the same time the author statistically analyzed the various factors in close relation to tile cocoon crop in autumn season. The effect of guidance on 40 sericultural farmers was analyzed, comparing higher level farmers with lower level farmers ; and the author surveyed 758 non-guided farmers near the guided farmers during both spring and autumn seasons. In addition, another trial on the seasonal change of leaf quality was attempted with artificial diets prepared with leaves grown in each season. It was found that related factors to cocoon crops in summer and early autumn seasons appeared to be leaf quality, and temperature for young and grown larvae. A 2$^4$ factorial experiment was designed in summer season, and another design with one more level of varied temperature or hard leaf added to a 24 factorial experiment was conducted in early autumn. The experimental results can be summarized： 1. Study on the cocoon crops in the different rearing seasons 1) It was shown that earlier brushing of silkworm generally produced the most abundant cocoon crop in spring season, and earlier or later than the conventional brushing season, especially earlier brushing was unfavorable for the abundant cocoon crop in autumn season. 2) The cocoon crop was affected by the rearing season, and decreases in order of sire with spring, autumn, late autumn, summer and early autumn seasons. 3) It was Proved that ordinary rearing and branch rearing were possibles 4 times a year ; in the 1st, 3rd, 8th, and 10th brushing season. But the 11th brushing season was more favorable for the most abundant cocoon crop of branch rearing, instead of the 10th brushing season with ordinary rearing. 2. Study on the main factors affecting the cocoon crop in autumn season 1) Accumulated pathogens were a lethal factor leading to a bad cocoon crop through neglect of disinfection of rearing room and instruments. 2) Additional factors leading to a poor cocoon crop were unfavorable for rearing temperature and humidity, dense population, poor choice of moderately ripened leaf, and poor feeding techniques. However, it seemed that there was no relationship between the cocoon crop and management of farm. 3) The percentage of cocoon shell seemed to be mostly affected by leaf quality, and secondarily affected by the accumulation of pathogens. 3. Study on the effect of guidance on rearing techniques 1) The guided farms produced an average yearly yield of 29.0kg of cocoons, which varied from 32.3kg to 25.817g of cocoon yield per box in spring versus autumn, respectively. Those figures indicated an annual average increase of 26% of cocoon yield over yields of non-guided farmers. An increase of 20% of cocoon yield in spring and 35% of cocoon yield in autumn were responsible. 2) On guided farms 77.1 and 83.7% of total cocoon yields in the spring and autumn seasons, respectively, exceeded 3rd grade. This amounted to increases of 14.1 and 11.3% in cocoon yield and quality over those of non-guided farms. 3) The average annual cocoon yield on guided farms was 28.9kg per box, based on a range of 31.2kg to 26.9kg per box in spring and autumn seasons, respectively. This represented an 8% increase in cocoon yield on farms one year after guidance, as opposed to non-guided farms. This yield increase was due to 3 and 16% cocoon yield increases in spring and autumn crops. 4) Guidance had no effect on higher level farms, but was responsible for 19% of the increases in production on lower level farms. 4. Study on the seasonal change of leaf quality 1) In tests with grown larvae, leaves of tile spring crop incorporated in artificial diets produced the best cocoon crop; followed by leaves of the late autumn, summer, autumn, and early autumn crops. 2) The cocoon crop for young larvae as well as for grown larvae varied with the season of leaf used. 5. Study on factors affecting the cocoon crops in summer and early autumn A. Early autumn season 1) Survival rate and cocoon yield were significantly decreased at high rearing temperatures for young larvae 2) Survival rate, cocoon yield, and cocoon quality were adversely affected by high rearing temperatures for grown larvae. Therefore increases of cocoon quantity and improvement of cocoon quality are dependent on maintaining optimum temperatures. 3) Decreases in individual cocoon weight and longer larval periods resulted with feeding of soft leaf and hard leaf to young larvae, but the survival rate, cocoon yield and weight of cocoon shell were not influenced. 4) Cocoon yield and cocoon quality were influenced by feeding of hard leaf to grown larvae, but survival rate was not influenced by the feeding of soft leaf and hard leaf. 5) When grown larvae were inevitably raised at varied temperatures, application of varied temperature in the raising of both young and grown larvae was desirable. Further research concerning this matter must be considered. B. Summer season 1) Cocoon yield and single cocoon weight were decreased at high temperatures for young larvae and survival rate was also affected. 2) Cocoon yield, survival rate. and cocoon quality were considerably decreased at high rearing temperatures for grown larval stages.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.674-684
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• 1999

Background : It has been generally known that the incidence of lung cancer is higher in the patients with idopathic pumonary fibrosis (IPF) than those in general population. The reported incidence was variable from 4.8 to 43.2%. There were controversies on the most frequent cell type (squamous cell carcinoma vs. adenocarcinoma) and no study was done about the real concordance of cancer and the fibrotic lesion. And the pulmonary fibrosis may influence not only the development of cancer but also the treatment and prognosis of the cancer, but there was no report on that point. Method : Total 63 patients ($66.8{\pm}7.8$ year, M : F=61 : 2) were diagnosed as IPF combined with lung cancer (IFF-CA) at Asan Medical Center. A retrospective analysis was done about the risk factors of the lung cancer, pulmonary function test, the site of cancer(especially the relationship of the cancer with the fibrotic lesion), the histologic types, and the stage of cancer. The histologic types were compared with those of 2,660 patients with lung cancer who were diagnosed at the same institute for the same period. The effect of IPF on the treatment of the cancer was evaluated with the survival time after the detection of lung cancer. Results : The lung cancer was found in 63(22.9%) out of 281 patients with IPF. But in most of them(45 patients), lung cancer was detected at the same time with IPF and only in 18 patients, the cancer was diagnosed during the follow-up($25.2{\pm}17.7$ months) of IPF. So in our study, 6.7% of patients with IPF developed lung cancer during the course of the disease. The age ($66.8{\pm}7.84$ vs. $63.4{\pm}11.1$ years), percentage of smoker (88.9 vs. 67.2%), and the male gender (96.8 vs. 67.6%) were significantly higher in IPF-CA compared with lone IPF (p<0.05). The odds ratio of smoking was 4.7 compared with non smoking IPF controls. The lung cancer was located more frequently in the upper lobe and 55.5% was in the periphery of lung. The cancer was developed in the fibrotic lesion in 23 patients (35.9%), and in the majority of the patients, the cancer was separated from the fibrosis. The cell type of the lung cancer in IPF-CA was squamous cell carcinoma 34.9%, adenocarcinoma 30.2%, small cell carcinoma 19.0%, large cell undifferenciated carcinoma 6.3%, and others 9.5%. No significant difference in the distribution of histologic type of the lung cancer was found between IPF-CA and lone lung cancer. There was no significant difference in demographic features, cell types, location and the stage of the cancer between the group with concurrent IPF-CA and the group with cancer diagnosed during the follow up of IPF. There was a tendency (but statistically not significant : p=0.081) of higher incidence of adenocarcinoma among the cancers developed in the fibrotic area(43.5%) (F-CA) than in the cancers in non-fibrotic area (22.5%) (NF-CA). The prognosis of the patients with F-CA was poor (median survival : 4 months) compared with the patients with NF-CA (7 months, p=0.013), partly because the prevalence of severe IPF (the extent of fibrosis in HRCT 50%) was higher in F-CA group. Conclusion : These data suggest that the lung cancer in the patients with IPF has similar features to the ordinary lung cancer.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.215-228
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• 1999

Background: Sarcoidosis is a chronic granulomatous inflammatory disease of unknown etiology often involving the lungs and intrathoracic lymph nodes. The natural course of sarcoidosis is variable from spontaneous remission to significant morbidity or death. But, the mechanisms causing the variable clinical outcomes or any single parameter to predict the prognosis was not known. In sarcoidosis, the number and the activity of CD4 + lymphocytes are significantly increased at the loci of disease and their oligoclonality suggests that the CD4 + lymphocytes hyperreactivity may be caused by persistent antigenic stimulus. Recently, it has been known that CD4+ lymphocytes can be subdivided into 2 distinct population(Th1 and Th2) defined by the spectrum of cytokines produced by these cells. Th1 cells promote cellular immunity associated with delayed type hypersensitivity reactions by generating IL-2 and IFN-$\gamma$. Th2 cells playa role in allergic responses and immediate hypersensitivity reactions by secreting IL-4, IL-5, and IL-10. CD4+ lymphocytes in pulmonary sarcoidosis were reported to be mainly Th1 cells. IL-12 has been known to play an important role in differentiation of undifferentiated naive T cells to Th1 cells. And, Moller et al. observed increased IL-12 in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid(BALF) in patients with sarcoidosis. So it is possible that the elevated level of IL-12 is necessary for the continuous progression of the disease in active sarcoidosis. This study was performed to test the assumption that IL-12 can be a marker of active pulmonary sarcoidosis. Methods: We measured the concentration of IL-12 in BALF and in conditioned medium of alveolar macrophage(AM) using ELISA(enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) method in 26 patients with pulmonary sarcoidosis(10 males, 16 females, mean age: $39.8{\pm}2.1$ years) and 11 normal control. Clinically, 14 patients had active sarcoidosis and 12 patients had inactive. Results: Total cells counts, percentage and number of lymhocytes, number of AM and CD4/CD8 lymphocyte ratio in BALF were significantly higher in patients with sarcoidosis than in control group. But none of these parameters could differentiate active sarcoidosis from inactive disease. The concentration of IL-12 in BALF was significantly increased in sarcoidosis patients ($49.3{\pm}9.2$ pg/ml) than in normal control ($2.5{\pm}0.4$ pg/ml) (p<0.001). Moreover it was significantly higher in patients with active sarcoidosis ($70.3{\pm}14.8$ pg/ml) than in inactive disease ($24.8{\pm}3.l$ pg/ml) (p=0.001). Also, the concentration of IL-12 in BALF showed significant correlation with the percentage of AM(p<0.001), percentage(p<0.001) and number of lymphocyte(p<0.001) in BALF, suggesting the close relationship between the level of IL-12 in BALF and the inflammatory cell infiltration in the lungs. Furthermore, we found a significant correlation between the level of IL-12 and the concentration of soluble ICAM-1 : in serum(p<0.001) and BALF (p=0.001), and also between IL-12 level and ICAM-1 expression of AM(p<0.001). The AM from patients with pulmonary sarcoidosis secreted significantly larger amount of IL-12 ($206.2{\pm}61.9$ pg/ml) than those of control ($68.3{\pm}43.7$ pg/ml) (p<0.008), but, there was no difference between inactive and active disease group. Conclusion : Our data suggest that the BALF IL-12 level can be used as a marker of the activity of pulmonary sarcoidosis.