• 제목/요약/키워드: Regional prediction

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Development and Verification of NEMO based Regional Storm Surge Forecasting System (NEMO 모델을 이용한 지역 폭풍해일예측시스템 개발 및 검증)

  • La, Nary;An, Byoung Woong;Kang, KiRyong;Chang, Pil-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2020
  • In this study we established an operational storm-surge system for the northwestern pacific ocean, based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean). The system consists of the tide and the surge models. For more accurate storm surge prediction, it can be completed not only by applying more precise depth data, but also by optimal parameterization at the boundaries of the atmosphere and ocean. To this end, we conducted several sensitivity experiments related to the application of available bathymetry data, ocean bottom friction coefficient, and wind stress and air pressure on the ocean surface during August~September 2018 and the case of typhoon SOULIK. The results of comparison and verification are presented here, and they are compared with POM (Princeton Ocean Model) based Regional Tide Surge forecasting Model (RTSM). The results showed that the RTSM_NEMO model had a 29% and 20% decrease in Bias and RMSE respectively compared to the RTSM_POM model, and that the RTSM_NEMO model had a lower overall error than the RTSM_POM model for the case of typhoon SOULIK.

Identification of a conservative site in the African swine fever virus p54 protein and its preliminary application in a serological assay

  • Xu, Lingyu;Cao, Chenfu;Yang, Zhiyi;Jia, Weixin
    • Journal of Veterinary Science
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.55.1-55.12
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    • 2022
  • Background: ASF was first reported in Kenya in 1910 in 1921. In China, ASF spread to 31 provinces including Henan and Jiangsu within six months after it was first reported on August 3, 2018. The epidemic almost affected the whole China, causing direct economic losses of tens of billions of yuan. Cause great loss to our pig industry. As ELISA is cheap and easy to operate, OIE regards it as the preferred serological method for ASF detection. P54 protein has good antigenicity and is an ideal antigen for detection. Objective: To identify a conservative site in the African swine fever virus (ASFV) p54 protein and perform a Cloth-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting the ASFV antibody in order to reduce risks posed by using the live virus in diagnostic assays. Method: We used bioinformatics methods to predict the antigen epitope of the ASFV p54 protein in combination with the antigenic index and artificially synthesized the predicted antigen epitope peptides. Using ASFV-positive serum and specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), we performed indirect ELISA and blocking ELISA to verify the immunological properties of the predicted epitope polypeptide. Results: The results of our prediction revealed that the possible antigen epitope regions were A23-29, A36-45, A72-94, A114-120, A124-130, and A137-150. The indirect ELISA showed that the peptides A23-29, A36-45, A72-94, A114-120, and A137-150 have good antigenicity. Moreover, the A36-45 polypeptide can react specifically with the mAb secreted by hybridoma cells, and its binding site contains a minimum number of essential amino acids in the sequence 37DIQFINPY44. Conclusions: Our study confirmed a conservative antigenic site in the ASFV p54 protein and its amino acid sequence. A competitive ELISA method for detecting ASFV antibodies was established based on recombinant p54 and matching mAb. Moreover, testing the protein sequence alignment verified that the method can theoretically detect antibodies produced by pigs affected by nearly all ASFVs worldwide.

A Regional Study for Low-Income Affordable Housing Plan - With a Focus on Lansing Metropolitan Area in Michigan, USA - (미국 지방정부의 저소득층을 위한 부담가능주택 수요분석 및 정책사례 연구 - 미시건주 및 랜싱도시권을 사례로 -)

  • Lee, Jae Choon
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2016
  • This paper introduced the affordable housing support programs and system of the State of Michigan and Lansing Metropolitan Area and reviewed the affordable housing plan of Lansing area. This paper also examined their challenges and efforts to solve the affordable housing issues with additional analysis. The affordable housing planning process was also presented with a comprehensive analysis and future prediction of demographic characteristics and housing supply and demand for affordable housing. Especially, the trend and future forecast of the elderly and low-income households who have a significant impact on the affordable housing demand are considered. The U.S. and South Korea have different housing characteristics and situations. A part of the plan and suggestions of Lansing are somewhat unfamiliar, and it is difficult to introduce their suggestions into our policies. However, the affordable housing plan of Lansing Metropolitan Area suggested various solutions to solve the issues, and some of them deserve to be considered on our housing policy making.

Self-image as a Component of 'Theory of Planned Behavior' for Prediction of Indian Mall Patronage Intention

  • Singh, Devinder Pal
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - This study aims to examine the Indian consumers'mall shopping patronage with the application of theory of planned behavior (TPB). The research intends to extend the TPB components (attitude, self-efficacy, subjective norms) with the addition of self-image and study their effect on Indian consumers' mall patronage intention. Research design, data and methodology - The research employed factor analysis to verify correct loading of items on corresponding factors and to confirm the applicability of constructs in the Indian context. The model was tested using stepwise regression analysis. Results -The results indicate a positive relationship between self-efficacy and intention to mall patronage. The findings show that self-image, attitude, self-efficacy, subjective norm significantly influence the mall patronage intention. Self-efficacy, which signifies self-competence and confidence in one's ability as a mall shopper indicates that as the self-efficacy increases Indian consumers' will eventually patronize malls. Conclusions - Self-image congruency plays a salient role in predicting mall-shopping patronage. The mall management should ensure that the mall marketing strategies incorporate it along with the other components of TPB to warrant decent footfall.

Erosion Control Line (ECL) Establishment Using Coastal Erosion Width Prediction Model by High Wave Height (고파랑 해안 침식폭 예측모델을 이용한 침식한계선(ECL) 설정)

  • Park, Seung-Min;Park, Seol-Hwa;Lee, Jung-Lyul;Kim, Tae-Kon
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.526-534
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    • 2019
  • The average coastline and the erosion control line introduced as the management coastline, and the average shoreline (MSL) was established from the observed coastline. Also, the median grain size and the wave height of 30-years return period were applied. The erosion control line (ECL) was established through the model, HaeSaBeeN. These two lines set the coastline for evaluation. Based on the observed monitoring data along the coastline, the 1-day variation according to the normal distribution was used to estimate the regional variation, and the width of the erosion was calculated by applying the median grain size (D50) and the wave height of 30-years return period through the high-wave coastal erosion width model, i.e., HaeSaBeeN.

Development and Validation of the Coupled System of Unified Model (UM) and PArameterized FOG (PAFOG) (기상청 현업 모형(UM)과 1차원 난류모형(PAFOG)의 접합시스템 개발 및 검증)

  • Kim, Wonheung;Yum, Seong Soo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.149-154
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    • 2015
  • As an attempt to improve fog predictability at Incheon International Airport (IIA) we couple the 3D weather forecasting model currently operational in Korea Meteorological Administration (regional Unified Model, UM_RE) with a 1D turbulence model (PAFOG). The coupling is done by extracting the meteorological data from the 3D model and properly inserting them in the PAFOG model as initial conditions and external forcing. The initial conditions include surface temperature, 2 m temperature and dew point temperature, geostrophic wind at 850 hPa and vertical profiles of temperature and dew point temperature. Moisture and temperature advections are included as external forcing and updated every hr. To validate the performance of the coupled system, simulation results of the coupled system are compared to those of the 3D model alone for the 22 sea fog cases observed over the Yellow Sea. Three statistical indices, i.e., Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), linear correlation coefficient (R) and Critical Success Index (CSI), are examined, and they all indicate that the coupled system performs better than the 3D model alone. These are certainly promising results but more improvement is required before the coupled system can actually be used as an operational fog forecasting model. For the RMSE, R, and CSI values for the coupled system are still not good enough for operational fog forecast.

A numerical study of the orographic effect of the Taebak mountains on the increase of the downslope wind speed near Gangnung area (태백산맥의 지형적인 효과와 관련된 강릉 지역의 강풍 사례에 대한 수치모의 연구)

  • 이재규
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.1245-1254
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    • 2003
  • A numerical simulation for 11 February 1996 has been done to grasp main mechanisms of the occurrence of strong downslope winds near Gangnung area. The simulation performed by using ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) showed that enhanced surface winds were not related with a reflection of vertically propagating gravity waves. Froude numbers were about 1.0, 0.4 and 0.6 for the atmosphere above Daekwanryoung and above a place located 220km upstream, and above another place located 230km downstream from the Taebak mountains, respectively. This suggested that as a subcritical flow ascended the upslope side of the Taebak mountains, Froude numbers would tend to increase according to the increase in wind speed, and near the crest the flow would become supercritical and continue to accelerate as it went down the downslope side until it was adapted back to the ambient subcritical conditions in a turbulent hydraulic jump. Simulated Froude numbers corroborated the hydraulic jump nature of the strong downslope wind. In addition, the inversion was found near the mountain top height upstream of the mountains, and it was favorable for the occurrence of strong downslope winds.

Surface Wind Regionalization Based on Similarity of Time-series Wind Vectors

  • Kim, Jinsol;Kim, Hyun-Goo;Park, Hyeong-Dong
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.80-89
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    • 2016
  • In the complex terrain where local wind systems are formed, accurate understanding of regional wind variability is required for wind resource assessment. In this paper, cluster analysis based on the similarity of time-series wind vector was applied to classify wind regions with similar wind characteristics and the meteorological validity of regionalization method was evaluated. Wind regions in Jeju Island and Busan were classified using the wind resource map of Korea created by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction modeling. The evaluation was performed by comparing wind speed, wind direction, and wind variability of each wind region. Wind characteristics, such as mean wind speed and prevailing wind direction, in the same wind region were similar and wind characteristics in different wind regions were meteor-statistically distinct. It was able to identify a singular wind region at the top area of Mt. Halla using the inconsistency of wind direction variability. Furthermore, it was found that the regionalization results correspond with the topographic features of Jeju Island and Busan, showing the validity.

Study on the Current status and prospects of China aviation industry (중국 항공산업현황 및 전망에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ki-Heon;Hwang, Ho-Won;Oh, Young-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2014
  • According to the prediction of Aviation Industry Corporation of China, in the next 20 years, China will have an increase of 4,583 civilian airliners, including 3,682 jumbo jets and 901 regional aircrafts. Chinese commercial aviation aircraft market will undoubtedly grow rapidly. until the year 2030, China's share of the global aircraft fleet will increase from 9% to 15%. In addition, the business jet market has a huge growing room in the global industry, the deliveries will reach 10,000 units in the next 10 years, and the Chinese market deliveries will reach 23,600 in the next 20 years. China's aviation market, is and will be enormous in the future. It is one of the main engines of economic growth in the field. China's civil aviation transportation is based on dazzling economic development. Air transport is the fastest growing power for the time being. China's aviation sector will have an average annual gross of about 10%, and more likely to continued growing and it is expected to be world's major aviation market around the world. As the result, since one of future the important industries will be emerged, Air policy enforcement and considering the reality of our future prospects for the airline industry presented.

Inflow Forecasting for Reservoir Operation using Artificial Neural Network with RDAPS (인공신경망과 RDAPS 자료를 이용한 유입량 예측)

  • Choi, Gi-An;Lee, Kyoung-Joo;Kim, Tae-Soon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.23-26
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    • 2009
  • 효과적인 저수지 운영을 위해 가장 중요한 절차는 저수지 유입량을 적절하게 모의하는 것이다. 실시간 저수지 운영의 경우 기존의 물리적인 강우-유출현상에 기초한 수학적인 모형을 이용해서 유입량을 예측하는데 한계가 있으므로 인공신경망과 같이 자료의 특성에 기반한 모형이 효율적인 대안이 될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 인공신경망(Artificial neural network, ANN)을 이용하여 실시간 저수지 운영을 위해 현재시간을 기준으로 3시간 후, 6시간 후, 9시간 후, 12시간 후의 유입량을 예측하였다. 본 연구의 대상지역은 한강수계의 화천댐 유역으로 기상청 수치예보자료인 RDAPS(Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System)자료 중에서 강우예측자료를 사용하였다. RDAPS 강우예측자료를 이용한 예측값 결과와 비교하기 위해 지점 강우자료를 사용하였으며, 이 지점 강우자료는 화천댐 유역에 있는 AWS, 기상청, 국토해양부의 지점자료을 이용하였다. RDAPS 강우예측값만을 이용한 유입량 예측결과가 과거 12시간 강우 누적값을 이용한 유입량 예측값과 비슷한 정확도를 가지는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 자료의 효율적인 취득을 고려해야만 하는 실시간 운영의 경우, RDAPS 강우예측자료와 인공신경망을 이용한 모형이 충분히 효과적인 대안이 될 수 있음을 알 수 있다.

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