• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.161-169
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• 2012

The RCP 8.5 scenario based temperature outlook (12.5 km resolution) was combined with high-definition gridded temperature maps (30 m grid spacing) across the Korean Peninsula in order to reclassify the cold hardiness zone for winter barley, a promising grain crop in the future under warmer winter conditions. Reference maps for the January minimum and mean temperature were prepared by applying the watershed-specific geospatial climate prediction schemes to the synoptic observations from 1981 to 2010 across North and South Korea. Decadal changes in the January minimum and mean temperatures projected by a regional version of RCP8.5 climate change scenario were prepared for the 2011-2100 period at 12.5 km grid spacing and were subsequently added to the reference maps, producing the 30 m resolution temperature surfaces for 9 decades from 2011 to 2100. A criterion for threshold temperature to grow winter barley safely in Korea was applied to the future temperature surfaces and the resulting maps were used to predict the production potential of 3 cultivar groups for the 9 future decades under the projected temperature conditions. By 2020s, hulled barley cultivars could be grown safely at the southern part of North Korea as well as the mountainous Gangwon province. Furthermore, most of South Korean rice paddies will be safe for growing naked barley after harvesting rice. Also, dual cropping systems such as 'winter-barley after rice' could be possible at most of the North Korean rice paddies by 2040s. Additional grain production in North Korea could increase up to 4 million tons per year if dual cropping systems can be fully operated, i.e., winter barley after rice at all lowlands and winter barley after maize or potato at all uplands.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.218-233
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• 2022

The long-term (1986~2020) predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean is evaluated using the daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) data produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Predictability evaluation methods for the number of days of damages are Normalized Standard Deviations (NSD), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Hit Rate (HR), and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). First, we verified the simulation performance of the Tmax and Tmin, which are the variables that define the heat and cold damages of soybean. As a result, although there are some differences depending on the month starting with initial conditions from January (01RUN) to May (05RUN), the result after a systematic bias correction by the Variance Scaling method is similar to the observation compared to the bias-uncorrected one. The simulation performance for correction Tmax and Tmin from March to October is overall high in the results (ENS) averaged by applying the Simple Composite Method (SCM) from 01RUN to 05RUN. In addition, the model well simulates the regional patterns and characteristics of the number of days of heat and cold damages by according to the growth stages of soybean, compared with observations. In ENS, HR and HSS for heat damage (cold damage) of soybean have ranged from 0.45~0.75, 0.02~0.10 (0.49~0.76, -0.04~0.11) during each growth stage. In conclusion, 01RUN~05RUN and ENS of PNU CGCM-WRF Chain have the reasonable performance to predict heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.408-417
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• 2016

The frequent regional torrential or heavy rain and typhoon mostly caused by climate change has resulted in sediment disasters particularly in mountainous or hilly areas. More than 65% of South Korea is mountainous and development and rapid urbanization has brought lots of steep sloping industrial complexes, which are adjacent to cities. Such continuous urbanization and industrialization can result in an increase in serious damage to those places. Korea has very high population density so sediment disaster could result in a tremendous loss of property and life. A recent 10-year (2001~2010) study of the average annual loss shows 68 casualties and property loss of 1.7044 trillion Won(?), which indicates a 20% and 25% decrease for both life and property, respectively, but urban areas are experiencing increasing damage. In this paper, a comprehensive simulator composed by references, analyses, and the recent technologies was applied to visualize the scale of the damaged Woomyeon-san (Mt.) and verify the performance of the simulator.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.33 no.6_1
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• pp.901-915
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• 2017

Recently, global climate change has caused a catastrophic event in the Arctic Ocean, directly and indirectly. The air-sea interaction has caused the significant sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean, and has been accelerating the Arctic warming. Many scientists are worried about the Arctic environment change, suggesting that many of anomalous events will produce direct or indirect biophysical effects on the Arctic. The aim of this study is to understand the inter-annual variability of the Arctic Ocean in wide-view using multi-satellite-derived measurements. Sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) data were obtained from Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) and ECMWF ERA-Interim, respectively. Chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL) was obtained from Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Aqua sensor from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-Aqua) sensor which has continuously observed since 1998. From 1998 to 2016 summer in the Arctic Ocean which was defined as regions over $60^{\circ}N$ in this study, there were three consequences that CHL increase ($0.15mg\;m^{-3}\;decade^{-1}$), SST warming ($0.43^{\circ}C\;decade^{-1}$) and SIC decrease ($-5.37%\;decade^{-1}$). While SST and SIC highly correlated each other (r = -0.76), a relationship between CHL and SIC was very low ($r={\pm}0.1$) because of data limitations. And a relationship between CHL and SST shows meaningful results ($r={\pm}0.66$) with regional differences.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.11-19
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• 2023

Alien species are known to threaten regional biodiversity globally, which has increased global interest regarding introduction of alien species. The Ministry of Environment of Korea designated species that have not yet been introduced into the country with potential threat as alert alien species to prevent damage to the ecosystem. In this study, potential habitats of Esox lucius and Maccullochella peelii, which are predatory and designated as alert alien fish, were predicted on a national basis. Habitat suitability was evaluated using EHSM (Ecological Habitat Suitability Model), and water temperature data were input to calculate Physiological Habitat Suitability (PHS). The prediction results have shown that PHS of the two fishes were mainly controlled by heat or cold stress, which resulted in biased habitat distribution. E. lucius was predicted to prefer the basins at high latitudes (Han and Geum River), while M. peelii preferred metropolitan areas. Through these differences, it was expected that the invasion pattern of each alien fish can be different due to thermal preference. Further studies are required to enhance the model's predictive power, and future predictions under climate change scenarios are required to aid establishing sustainable management plans.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.55-64
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• 2019

The flowering seasons can be advanced due to climate change that would cause an abnormally warm winter. Such warm winter would increase the frequency of crop damages resulted from sudden occurrences of low temperature before and after the vegetative growth stages, e.g., the period from germination to flowering. The degree and pattern of freezing damage would differ by the development stage of each individual fruit tree even in an orchard. A critical temperature, e.g., killing temperature, has been used to predict freeze damage by low-temperature conditions under the assumption that such damage would be associated with the development stage of a fruit flower bud. However, it would be challenging to apply the critical temperature to a region where spatial variation in temperature would be considerably high. In the present study, a phenological model was used to estimate major bud development stages, which would be useful for prediction of regional risks for the freeze damages. We also derived a linear function to calculate a probabilistic freeze risk in spring, which can quantitatively evaluate the risk level based solely on forecasted weather data. We calculated the dates of freeze damage occurrences and spatial risk distribution according to main production areas by applying the spring freeze risk function to apple, peach, and pear crops in 2018. It was predicted that the most extensive low-temperature associated freeze damage could have occurred on April 8. It was also found that the risk function was useful to identify the main production areas where the greatest damage to a given crop could occur. These results suggest that the freezing damage associated with the occurrence of low-temperature events could decrease providing early warning for growers to respond abnormal weather conditions for their farm.