• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regime shift

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A development of hierarchical bayesian model for changing point analysis at watershed scale (유역단위에서의 연강수량의 변동점 분석을 위한 계층적 Bayesian 분석기법 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-Guk;Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Yoon-Hee;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 2017
  • In recent decades, extreme events have been significantly increased over the Korean Peninsula due to climate variability and climate change. The potential changes in hydrologic cycle associated with the extreme events increase uncertainty in water resources planning and designing. For these reasons, a reliable changing point analysis is generally required to better understand regime changes in hydrologic time series at watershed scale. In this study, a hierarchical changing point analysis approach that can apply in a watershed scale is developed by combining the existing changing point analysis method and hierarchical Bayesian method. The proposed model was applied to the selected stations that have annual rainfall data longer than 40 years. The results showed that the proposed model can quantitatively detect the shift in precipitation in the middle of 1990s and identify the increase in annual precipitation compared to the several decades prior to the 1990s. Finally, we explored the changes in precipitation and sea level pressure in the context of large-scale climate anomalies using reanalysis data, for a given change point. It was concluded that the identified large-scale patterns were substantially different from each other.

Review of Migration and Distribution of the Common Squid (Todarodes pacificus) in the East Sea and the Yellow Sea (동해와 서해의 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 회유 및 분포에 관한 고찰)

  • Kim, Yoon Ha;Jung, Hae Kun;Oh, Sung-Yong;Kim, Hyun Woo;Lee, Chung Il
    • Journal of Marine Life Science
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.14-21
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    • 2019
  • This review paper discussed the decadal fluctuations in the catch of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus (T. pacificus) by focusing on migration and distribution patterns. Since 1980s, changes in T. pacificus catches were due to climate regime shift in Korean waters. Fluctuation patterns of catches were different between the East Sea and the Yellow Sea. Generally PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) phase shows a negative correlation with strength of warm current to the East Sea. In 1980s when PDO was positive phase (+), T. pacificus catch was higher in the Yellow, but it was lower in the East Sea. In 1990s when PDO was negative phase (-), T. pacificus catch showed opposite trend compared with 1980s. Such spatial and decadal fluctuations of T. pacificus catch were due to its northward migration along with the warm current or southward movement against the current. In the East Sea, strong (weak) warm current period, the current path has been shifted toward the East Sea coast of Korea (central East Sea or the coast of Japan). It has a correlation with PDO. In the positive PDO phase (1980s), the fishing ground was located on the eastern side of Ulleungdo, whereas during negative PDO phase (1990s), they were situated near the southeastern coast of the Korean peninsula. In the 1980s, volume transport passing into the Yellow Sea increased, whereas volume transport in the East Sea decreased. This is one of major reason increasing T. pacificus larvae in the Yellow Sea.

Inquiring the Possibility of Critical Pedagogy as Discourse for 'Zeitgeist' (시대정신을 위한 교육 담론으로서 비판교육학의 가능성 탐구)

  • Hur, Changsoo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.80-91
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    • 2019
  • Korean society is now in the 2017 system. The zeitgeist is now hoping to move into a society where the right to pursue happiness centered on democracy, human rights, and peace is recognized, and to the era of the fourth industrial revolution. The paradigm shifts in the education arena began before the start of this socio-political system. The educational autonomy centered on the progressive education superintendent is accelerating the influx of alternative education, which is part of the civic education movement, through public school reforms. It can be seen that not only the progressive camp but also the conservative government emphasized educational policies such as the liberal semester system, which was gradually adopted by the government. For education that is appropriate for a rapidly changing society, it is necessary to discuss about educational grand-discourse that can alternate current public education. Although it does not mean only one discourse, it is a necessary process to systematically consider alternate education of public education and to suggest the direction for future education. In this regard, this study aims to introduce the discourse that can produce critical consciousness and creativity that emphasize the praxis and practice through critical pedagogy and bricolage.

Stock Identification of Todarodes pacificus in Northwest Pacific (북서태평양에 서식하는 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 계군 분석에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Jeong-Yun;Moon, Chang-Ho;Yoon, Moon-Geun;Kang, Chang-Keun;Kim, Kyung-Ryul;Na, Taehee;Choy, Eun Jung;Lee, Chung Il
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.292-302
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    • 2012
  • This paper reviews comparison analysis of current and latest application for stock identification methods of Todarodes pacificus, and the pros and cons of each method and consideration of how to compensate for each other. Todarodes pacificus which migrates wide areas in western North Pacific is important fishery resource ecologically and commercially. Todarodes pacificus is also considered as 'biological indicator' of ocean environmental changes. And changes in its short and long term catch and distribution area occur along with environmental changes. For example, while the catch of pollack, a cold water fish, has dramatically decreased until today after the climate regime shift in 1987/1988, the catch of Todarodes pacificus has been dramatically increased. Regarding the decrease in pollack catch, overfishing and climate changes were considered as the main causes, but there has been no definite reason until today. One of the reasons why there is no definite answer is related with no proper analysis about ecological and environmental aspects based on stock identification. Subpopulation is a group sharing the same gene pool through sexual reproduction process within limited boundaries having similar ecological characteristics. Each individual with same stock might be affected by different environment in temporal and spatial during the process of spawning, recruitment and then reproduction. Thereby, accurate stock analysis about the species can play an efficient alternative to comply with effective resource management and rapid changes. Four main stock analysis were applied to Todarodes pacificus: Morphologic Method, Ecological Method, Tagging Method, Genetic Method. Ecological method is studies for analysis of differences in spawning grounds by analysing the individual ecological change, distribution, migration status, parasitic state of parasite, kinds of parasite and parasite infection rate etc. Currently the method has been studying lively can identify the group in the similar environment. However It is difficult to know to identify the same genetic group in each other. Tagging Method is direct method. It can analyse cohort's migration, distribution and location of spawning, but it is very difficult to recapture tagged squids and hard to tag juveniles. Genetic method, which is for useful fishery resource stock analysis has provided the basic information regarding resource management study. Genetic method for stock analysis is determined according to markers' sensitivity and need to select high multiform of genetic markers. For stock identification, isozyme multiform has been used for genetic markers. Recently there is increase in use of makers with high range variability among DNA sequencing like mitochondria, microsatellite. Even the current morphologic method, tagging method and ecological method played important rolls through finding Todarodes pacificus' life cycle, migration route and changes in spawning grounds, it is still difficult to analyze the stock of Todarodes pacificus as those are distributed in difference seas. Lately, by taking advantages of each stock analysis method, more complicated method is being applied. If based on such analysis and genetic method for improvement are played, there will be much advance in management system for the resource fluctuation of Todarodes pacificus.