• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.53-73
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• 2012

In this study we investigate the ability of the yield spread to predict economic recessions in two Asian economies. For our purpose we use the data from two emerging economies (South Korea and Thailand) that are also known for their openness in terms of exports and imports. We employ both two-regime Markov-Switching model (MS) and three-regime MS model to estimate the probability of recessions during Asian crisis. We found that the yield spread is confirmed to be a reliable recession predictor for Thailand but not for South Korea. The three-regime MS model is better for capturing the Asian financial crisis than two-regime MS model. We also tried to find the duration of economic expansions and recessions. We tested the hypothesis of asymmetric movements of business cycles. The MS results are also compared with that of the standard probit model for comparison. The MS model does not significantly improve the forecasting ability of the yield spread in forecasting business cycles.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.299-319
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• 2022

Since 2010, there have been phenomena that the recession of key industries has spreaded into a regional crisis, affecting the overall regional economy in Korea. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the regional industrial structure and manufacturing competitiveness has been changed in Gunsan, which is in crisis due to the decline of the shipbuilding and automobile industries. As a result, the pace of change in industrial structure of Gunsan has accelerated, and this is because the mass employment released from the key industries has been absorbed into other industries, but there were no manufacturing fields that could replace the recession of the key industries. Among the manufacturing of Gunsan, the degree of specialization of the basic industries has been gradually weakened, and in addtion, the weakening of location competitiveness has brought a negative impact on the growth rate differential of the manufacturing. It is necessary to closely examine changes in characteristics of regional industrial structure for Gusan to find an alternative direction in order to respond to the manufacturing crisis.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2001.06e
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• pp.282-287
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• 2001

The CSCM Upwind method and Material Transport Analysis (MTA) have been used to predict the thermal response and ablation rate for non-charring material to be used as thermal protection material (TPM) in KSR-III test rocket nozzle. The thermal boundary conditions such as cold wall heat-transfer rate and recovery enthalpy for MTA code are obtained from the upwind Navier-Stokes solution procedure. The heat transfer rate and temperature variations at rocket nozzle wall were studied with shape change of the nozzle surface as time goes by. The surface recession was severely occurred at nozzle throat and this affected nozzle performance such as thrust coefficient substantially.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.4724-4731
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• 1978

Using hydrometric data from an upland river in North Wales, a relationship between rate of river flow and water stored within the catchment area (catchment storage) is assumed to exist, and is evaluated from an analysis of winter recession curves. This storage/river flow relationship, when combined with water balance equations, produces a set of equations which may be used for "routing" input of rainfall through a storage with defined outflow characteristics, providing a straightforward method of flood prediction and analysis from rainfall data. Recorded and predicted flood hydrographs are compared, and the effectiveness and limitations of the method are considered. The development of a complete mathematical model, embodying the storage/river flow relationship, and suitable for generation of continuous run-off records from rainfall and evaporation data, is also considered.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.21-39
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• 2016

Although the demand for IT outsourcing (ITO) has increased recently because of the recent recession, concerns about business discontinuity in the transition phase cause companies to hesitate to adopt ITO. Therefore, a guideline to improve the prospects is needed. However, studies on the success factors of the transition phase in ITO are lacking. In this study, we develop an expert hierarchical value map (HVM) of the success of the transition phase in ITO by using cognition scientific methodologies. We empirically verify how success factors affect the success of the transition phase. Specifically, we derive an HVM of main stakeholders by using in-depth interviews and approaches, such as repertory grid technique (RGT) and laddering, based on means-end chain theory. We validate the success factors empirically through a bipolar analysis of RGT. Finally, we determine the most important cluster of success factors through cluster analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.15-20
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• 1996

The potential and the available amount of groundwater are defined precisely based on the hydrologic concept, of which terms are prescribed but not defined in the groundwater law. A simple method to estimate the available amount of groundwater is proposed by the comparison and analysis of the previous methods. The proposed method is based on separations of the groundwater components from the hydrograph for the recession period and the recharge period, and may be applied to the hydrograph analysis consistently.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Tobacco Science
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.115-122
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• 1981

Data for this study were obtained from Burley 21 (Nicotiana tabacum L.) grown under various densities on the field in 1978 and 1979 at the Jeonju Experiment Station, Korea Ginseng & Tobacco Research Institute. Interrelations between yield and its components were statistically studied by correlation, regression, and pathway analysis. Correlation of yield with plant population was significant and positive. Quadratic functions for yield vs. plant population and the length of the largest leaf were fitted to the data. Multiple recession equation between yield and its components (leaf number ($X_1$), a leaf area ($X_5$), weight per unit leaf area ($X_9$), plant population ($X_14$)), was significant at the 5% level. Measuring the relative importance of its components on yield, plant population was 49.5%, weight per unit leaf area 25.3%, a leaf 15.6%, and leaf number 9.8%.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1176-1182
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• 2009

Due to recession in real estate market, interest of risk analysis is increasing. Feasibility study in the first stage takes a great role in a project. There are not objectified tools which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected method of determinism does not include liquidity of weight risk. Also, shortage of consideration for subjective and atypical external factors causes inappropriate results. Therefore, this study proposes feasibility study model focused on risk factor influences in construction cost and sales cost. Considering effective level of cost based on objective risk factors and probable weight of risk by this model, real workers are able to bring correct and scientific decisions better than former method based on selective analysis of real estate development.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.354-356
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• 2015

As domestic recession has had an adverse impact on many Korean companies in Korea, financial soundness has become a critical issues. It is essential to identify financial risk factors to prevent workout as well as to improve the financial condition of domestic construction companies. Therefore, this study derived important management indicators and the financial ratios that belong to each indicator through a comparative analysis between healthy companies and workout companies with financial statement. As a consequence, key financial ratios are derived into 3 of 25 ratios; Equity Ratio in stability indicator, Total Asset Turnover Ratio in activity indicator, and Labor Equipment Ratio in productivity indicator. So, Korean construction firms are required close monitoring these critical financial ratios indicating variation between construction companies which have opposing statuses in finance in order to keep sound financial condition and increase productivity.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.851-868
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• 2012

After the financial crisis in 2008, the financial market still seems to be unstable with expanding the insolvency of the financial companies' real estate project financing loan in the aftermath of the lasted real estate recession. Especially after the illegal actions of people's financial institutions disclosed, while increased the anxiety of economic subjects about financial markets and weighted in the confusion of financial markets, the potential risk for the overall national economy is increasing. Thus as economic recession prolongs, the people's financial institutions having a weak profit structure and financing ability commit illegal acts in a variety of ways in order to conceal insolvent assets. Especially it is hard to find the loans of shareholder and the same borrower sharing credit risk in advance because most of them usually use a third-party's name bank account. Therefore, in order to effectively detect the fraud under other's name, it is necessary to analyze by clustering the borrowers high-related to a particular borrower through an analysis of association between the whole borrowers. In this paper, we introduce Analysis Techniques for detecting financial loan frauds in advance through an analysis of association between the whole borrowers by extending SNA(social network analysis) which is being studied by focused on sociology recently to the forensic accounting field of the financial frauds. Also this technique introduced in this pager will be very useful to regulatory authorities or law enforcement agencies at the field inspection or investigation.