• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.147-165
• /
• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
• /
• v.53 no.3
• /
• pp.307-313
• /
• 2010

Purpose : Results of the Korea National Health Screening Program for Infants and Children, which was launched in November 2007, were evaluated for future research and policy development. Methods : Data from a total of 2,729,340 cases were analyzed. Five visiting ages, such as 4, 9, 18, 30, and 60 months, were included. Several parameters such as stunting, obesity, and positive rate of developmental screening were also analyzed. Telephone survey was performed in 1,035 users. For the provider survey, 262 doctors participated in our study. Results : The overall participation rate of users was 35.3%. This participation rate showed a decrement tendency to old age and low income. Only 6.9% of users participated in oral screening. Health screening was performed mainly in private clinics (82.6%). The recall rate of 4 months program users at the age of 9 months was 57.3%. The positive rate of screening was 3.1%, and was higher in the low-income group. By telephone survey, users reported that questionnaires were not difficult (94%) and overall satisfaction was good (73%). Longer duration of counseling was related with more satisfied users. Counseling and health education were helpful to users (73.2%). Doctors agreed that this program was helpful to children (98.5%). Conclusion : Korea National Health Screening Program for Infants and Children was launched successfully. Participation rate should be improved, and a quality control program needs to be developed. More intensive support following this program for children of low-income families may lead to effective interventions in controlling health inequality. Periodic update of guidelines is also needed.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
• /
• v.50 no.1
• /
• pp.85-97
• /
• 2017

Purpose: This study was conducted to investigate dietary habits related to weight reduction and snack intake habits of $4^{th}$ to $5^{th}$ grade elementary students located in Jeju-si, Jeju, South Korea. Methods: The $4^{th}$ and $5^{th}$ grade elementary school students (total n = 234, equally matched numbers of normal weight children and overweight/obese children (n = 117/group)) were surveyed using a questionnaire and a 24-hour dietary recall method in Oct 2015. Results: The percentage of students who experienced reduced food intake to control weight was 26.3% in the normal weight group (NG) and 77.6% in the obese group (OG). Most frequently answered meal for reduced intake was snacks in the NG and dinner in the OG. Percentages of daily calorie intake among subjects were 17.2% for breakfast, 33.8% for lunch, 29.7% for dinner, and 19.3% for snacks. Frequency of snack intake was 2.1 times a week in NG and 1.6 times a week in OG, which showed a statistical difference between body weight groups. Types of snack foods were distinctly different depending on where children consumed them, although no difference was observed between NG and OG. In addition, snack intake level of low energy and nutrient-dense foods was significantly lower in the OG compared to the NG, whereas snack intake level of energy dense and low-nutritive foods was not different between the OG and NG. Conclusion: Taken together, snack intake level with consideration of frequency and amount of snack intake showed that children in the OG consumed significantly less low energy and nutrient-dense foods compared to the NG. Therefore, nutritional education for choosing healthy snack foods for children regardless of body weight status is crucial based on family-school links.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
• /
• v.52 no.5
• /
• pp.449-464
• /
• 2019

Purpose: North Koreans could be at higher risk for their bone health because of previous periods of severe famine and the continuing low availability of food. This study determined the bone mineral density (BMD) status and its relationship with dietary behaviors and nutrient intake of North Korean refugees (NKR) in South Korea (SK). Methods: This cross-sectional study analyzed 110 female NKR from a NORNS cohort of a non-probability sample of adult NKR in Seoul. BMD examined by DEXA was used to divide participants into the normal group (NG) and the non-normal group (NNG) according to the WHO guideline. A self-administered questionnaire included questions on age, the socioeconomic situation in North Korea (NK) and SK, the food security in NK and SK, and the health behaviors, dietary behaviors, and food frequency questionnaire administered in SK. A one-day 24-hr recall was conducted and the results were analyzed by using CanPro. SPSS was used to analyze whether BMD and related dietary behaviors and nutrient intakes differed according to the groups. Results: NG (62.7%) was significantly younger and had a lower abdominal obesity score than NNG (p < 0.001). While 14.5% of NG reported experiencing menopause, all of NNG reported experiencing menopause. The NG more frequently consumed the dairy group of foods (9.6 times a week) than did the NNG (4.8 times a week) after the statistics were adjusted for age (p < 0.007). The NG consumed significantly more animal protein and animal calcium than did the NNG (p = 0.01, p = 0.009, respectively). Calcium intake was low with 49.3% of NG, and 78.0% of the NNG reported consuming calcium lower than the estimated average requirement. Only calcium showed an index of nutrient quality lower than one in both groups. Conclusion: These results showed that NKR women and possibly all North Korean women are at high risk for bone health and they consumed low levels of bone-related nutrients, and this should be considered for the nutrition policy for NKR and North Korea.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.111-136
• /
• 2018

In this paper, we propose a methodology to extract answer information about queries from various types of unstructured documents collected from multi-sources existing on web in order to expand knowledge base. The proposed methodology is divided into the following steps. 1) Collect relevant documents from Wikipedia, Naver encyclopedia, and Naver news sources for "subject-predicate" separated queries and classify the proper documents. 2) Determine whether the sentence is suitable for extracting information and derive the confidence. 3) Based on the predicate feature, extract the information in the proper sentence and derive the overall confidence of the information extraction result. In order to evaluate the performance of the information extraction system, we selected 400 queries from the artificial intelligence speaker of SK-Telecom. Compared with the baseline model, it is confirmed that it shows higher performance index than the existing model. The contribution of this study is that we develop a sequence tagging model based on bi-directional LSTM-CRF using the predicate feature of the query, with this we developed a robust model that can maintain high recall performance even in various types of unstructured documents collected from multiple sources. The problem of information extraction for knowledge base extension should take into account heterogeneous characteristics of source-specific document types. The proposed methodology proved to extract information effectively from various types of unstructured documents compared to the baseline model. There is a limitation in previous research that the performance is poor when extracting information about the document type that is different from the training data. In addition, this study can prevent unnecessary information extraction attempts from the documents that do not include the answer information through the process for predicting the suitability of information extraction of documents and sentences before the information extraction step. It is meaningful that we provided a method that precision performance can be maintained even in actual web environment. The information extraction problem for the knowledge base expansion has the characteristic that it can not guarantee whether the document includes the correct answer because it is aimed at the unstructured document existing in the real web. When the question answering is performed on a real web, previous machine reading comprehension studies has a limitation that it shows a low level of precision because it frequently attempts to extract an answer even in a document in which there is no correct answer. The policy that predicts the suitability of document and sentence information extraction is meaningful in that it contributes to maintaining the performance of information extraction even in real web environment. The limitations of this study and future research directions are as follows. First, it is a problem related to data preprocessing. In this study, the unit of knowledge extraction is classified through the morphological analysis based on the open source Konlpy python package, and the information extraction result can be improperly performed because morphological analysis is not performed properly. To enhance the performance of information extraction results, it is necessary to develop an advanced morpheme analyzer. Second, it is a problem of entity ambiguity. The information extraction system of this study can not distinguish the same name that has different intention. If several people with the same name appear in the news, the system may not extract information about the intended query. In future research, it is necessary to take measures to identify the person with the same name. Third, it is a problem of evaluation query data. In this study, we selected 400 of user queries collected from SK Telecom 's interactive artificial intelligent speaker to evaluate the performance of the information extraction system. n this study, we developed evaluation data set using 800 documents (400 questions * 7 articles per question (1 Wikipedia, 3 Naver encyclopedia, 3 Naver news) by judging whether a correct answer is included or not. To ensure the external validity of the study, it is desirable to use more queries to determine the performance of the system. This is a costly activity that must be done manually. Future research needs to evaluate the system for more queries. It is also necessary to develop a Korean benchmark data set of information extraction system for queries from multi-source web documents to build an environment that can evaluate the results more objectively.