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Predicting Crime Risky Area Using Machine Learning (머신러닝기반 범죄발생 위험지역 예측)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.64-80
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    • 2018
  • In Korea, citizens can only know general information about crime. Thus it is difficult to know how much they are exposed to crime. If the police can predict the crime risky area, it will be possible to cope with the crime efficiently even though insufficient police and enforcement resources. However, there is no prediction system in Korea and the related researches are very much poor. From these backgrounds, the final goal of this study is to develop an automated crime prediction system. However, for the first step, we build a big data set which consists of local real crime information and urban physical or non-physical data. Then, we developed a crime prediction model through machine learning method. Finally, we assumed several possible scenarios and calculated the probability of crime and visualized the results in a map so as to increase the people's understanding. Among the factors affecting the crime occurrence revealed in previous and case studies, data was processed in the form of a big data for machine learning: real crime information, weather information (temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, sunshine, insolation, snowfall, cloud cover) and local information (average building coverage, average floor area ratio, average building height, number of buildings, average appraised land value, average area of residential building, average number of ground floor). Among the supervised machine learning algorithms, the decision tree model, the random forest model, and the SVM model, which are known to be powerful and accurate in various fields were utilized to construct crime prevention model. As a result, decision tree model with the lowest RMSE was selected as an optimal prediction model. Based on this model, several scenarios were set for theft and violence cases which are the most frequent in the case city J, and the probability of crime was estimated by $250{\times}250m$ grid. As a result, we could find that the high crime risky area is occurring in three patterns in case city J. The probability of crime was divided into three classes and visualized in map by $250{\times}250m$ grid. Finally, we could develop a crime prediction model using machine learning algorithm and visualized the crime risky areas in a map which can recalculate the model and visualize the result simultaneously as time and urban conditions change.

A Mobile Landmarks Guide : Outdoor Augmented Reality based on LOD and Contextual Device (모바일 랜드마크 가이드 : LOD와 문맥적 장치 기반의 실외 증강현실)

  • Zhao, Bi-Cheng;Rosli, Ahmad Nurzid;Jang, Chol-Hee;Lee, Kee-Sung;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2012
  • In recent years, mobile phone has experienced an extremely fast evolution. It is equipped with high-quality color displays, high resolution cameras, and real-time accelerated 3D graphics. In addition, some other features are includes GPS sensor and Digital Compass, etc. This evolution advent significantly helps the application developers to use the power of smart-phones, to create a rich environment that offers a wide range of services and exciting possibilities. To date mobile AR in outdoor research there are many popular location-based AR services, such Layar and Wikitude. These systems have big limitation the AR contents hardly overlaid on the real target. Another research is context-based AR services using image recognition and tracking. The AR contents are precisely overlaid on the real target. But the real-time performance is restricted by the retrieval time and hardly implement in large scale area. In our work, we exploit to combine advantages of location-based AR with context-based AR. The system can easily find out surrounding landmarks first and then do the recognition and tracking with them. The proposed system mainly consists of two major parts-landmark browsing module and annotation module. In landmark browsing module, user can view an augmented virtual information (information media), such as text, picture and video on their smart-phone viewfinder, when they pointing out their smart-phone to a certain building or landmark. For this, landmark recognition technique is applied in this work. SURF point-based features are used in the matching process due to their robustness. To ensure the image retrieval and matching processes is fast enough for real time tracking, we exploit the contextual device (GPS and digital compass) information. This is necessary to select the nearest and pointed orientation landmarks from the database. The queried image is only matched with this selected data. Therefore, the speed for matching will be significantly increased. Secondly is the annotation module. Instead of viewing only the augmented information media, user can create virtual annotation based on linked data. Having to know a full knowledge about the landmark, are not necessary required. They can simply look for the appropriate topic by searching it with a keyword in linked data. With this, it helps the system to find out target URI in order to generate correct AR contents. On the other hand, in order to recognize target landmarks, images of selected building or landmark are captured from different angle and distance. This procedure looks like a similar processing of building a connection between the real building and the virtual information existed in the Linked Open Data. In our experiments, search range in the database is reduced by clustering images into groups according to their coordinates. A Grid-base clustering method and user location information are used to restrict the retrieval range. Comparing the existed research using cluster and GPS information the retrieval time is around 70~80ms. Experiment results show our approach the retrieval time reduces to around 18~20ms in average. Therefore the totally processing time is reduced from 490~540ms to 438~480ms. The performance improvement will be more obvious when the database growing. It demonstrates the proposed system is efficient and robust in many cases.

Comparative Study on the Methodology of Motor Vehicle Emission Calculation by Using Real-Time Traffic Volume in the Kangnam-Gu (자동차 대기오염물질 산정 방법론 설정에 관한 비교 연구 (강남구의 실시간 교통량 자료를 이용하여))

  • 박성규;김신도;이영인
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2001
  • Traffic represents one of the largest sources of primary air pollutants in urban area. As a consequence. numerous abatement strategies are being pursued to decrease the ambient concentration of pollutants. A characteristic of most of the these strategies is a requirement for accurate data on both the quantity and spatial distribution of emissions to air in the form of an atmospheric emission inventory database. In the case of traffic pollution, such an inventory must be compiled using activity statistics and emission factors for vehicle types. The majority of inventories are compiled using passive data from either surveys or transportation models and by their very nature tend to be out-of-date by the time they are compiled. The study of current trends are towards integrating urban traffic control systems and assessments of the environmental effects of motor vehicles. In this study, a methodology of motor vehicle emission calculation by using real-time traffic data was studied. A methodology for estimating emissions of CO at a test area in Seoul. Traffic data, which are required on a street-by-street basis, is obtained from induction loops of traffic control system. It was calculated speed-related mass of CO emission from traffic tail pipe of data from traffic system, and parameters are considered, volume, composition, average velocity, link length. And, the result was compared with that of a method of emission calculation by VKT(Vehicle Kilometer Travelled) of vehicles of category.

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Creation of Actual CCTV Surveillance Map Using Point Cloud Acquired by Mobile Mapping System (MMS 점군 데이터를 이용한 CCTV의 실질적 감시영역 추출)

  • Choi, Wonjun;Park, Soyeon;Choi, Yoonjo;Hong, Seunghwan;Kim, Namhoon;Sohn, Hong-Gyoo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.5_3
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    • pp.1361-1371
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    • 2021
  • Among smart city services, the crime and disaster prevention sector accounted for the highest 24% in 2018. The most important platform for providing real-time situation information is CCTV (Closed-Circuit Television). Therefore, it is essential to create the actual CCTV surveillance coverage to maximize the usability of CCTV. However, the amount of CCTV installed in Korea exceeds one million units, including those operated by the local government, and manual identification of CCTV coverage is a time-consuming and inefficient process. This study proposed a method to efficiently construct CCTV's actual surveillance coverage and reduce the time required for the decision-maker to manage the situation. For this purpose, first, the exterior orientation parameters and focal lengths of the pre-installed CCTV cameras, which are difficult to access, were calculated using the point cloud data of the MMS (Mobile Mapping System), and the FOV (Field of View) was calculated accordingly. Second, using the FOV result calculated in the first step, CCTV's actual surveillance coverage area was constructed with 1 m, 2 m, 3 m, 5 m, and 10 m grid interval considering the occluded regions caused by the buildings. As a result of applying our approach to 5 CCTV images located in Uljin-gun, Gyeongsnagbuk-do the average re-projection error was about 9.31 pixels. The coordinate difference between calculated CCTV and location obtained from MMS was about 1.688 m on average. When the grid length was 3 m, the surveillance coverage calculated through our research matched the actual surveillance obtained from visual inspection with a minimum of 70.21% to a maximum of 93.82%.

Development of Geometric Moments Based Ellipsoid Model for Extracting Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Rainfall Field (강우장의 시공간적 특성 추출을 위한 기하학적 모멘트 기반 등가타원 모형 개발)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;So, Byung-Jin;Kim, Min-Ji;Pack, Se-Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.6B
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    • pp.531-539
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    • 2011
  • It has been widely acknowledged that climate system associated with extreme rainfall events was difficult to understand and extreme rainfall simulation in climate model was more difficult. This study developed a new model for extracting rainfall filed associated with extreme events as a way to characterize large scale climate system. Main interests are to derive location, size and direction of the rainfall field and this study developed an algorithm to extract the above characteristics from global climate data set. This study mainly utilized specific humidity and wind vectors driven by NCEP reanalysis data to define the rainfall field. Geometric first and second moments have been extensively employed in defining the rainfall field in selected zone, and an ellipsoid based model were finally introduced. The proposed geometric moments based ellipsoid model works equally well with regularly and irregularly distributed synthetic grid data. Finally, the proposed model was applied to space-time real rainfall filed. It was found that location, size and direction of the rainfall field was successfully extracted.

Precision monitoring of radial growth of trees and micro-climate at a Korean Fir (Abies koreana Wilson) forest at 10 minutes interval in 2016 on Mt. Hallasan National Park, Jeju Island, Korea

  • Kim, Eun-Shik;Cho, Hong-Bum;Heo, Daeyoung;Kim, Nae-Soo;Kim, Young-Sun;Lee, Kyeseon;Lee, Sung-Hoon;Ryu, Jaehong
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.226-245
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    • 2019
  • To understand the dynamics of radial growth of trees and micro-climate at a site of Korean fir (Abies koreana Wilson) forest on high-altitude area of Mt. Hallasan National Park, Jeju Island, Korea, high precision dendrometers were installed on the stems of Korean fir trees, and the sensors for measuring micro-climate of the forest at 10 minutes interval were also installed at the forest. Data from the sensors were sent to nodes, collected to a gateway wireless, and transmitted to a data server using mobile phone communication system. By analyzing the radial growth data for the trees during the growing season in 2016, we can estimate that the radial growth of Korean fir trees initiated in late April to early May and ceased in late August to early September, which indicates that period for the radial growth was about 4 months in 2016. It is interesting to observe that the daily ambient temperature and the daily soil temperature at the depth of 20 cm coincided with the values of about 10 ℃ when the radial growth of the trees initiated in 2016. When the radial growth ceased, the values of the ambient temperature went down below about 15 ℃ and 16 ℃, respectively. While the ambient temperature and the soil temperature are evaluated to be the good indicators for the initiation and the cessation of radial growth, it becomes clear that radii of tree stems showed diurnal growth patterns affected by diurnal change of ambient temperature. In addition, the wetting and drying of the surface of the tree stems affected by precipitation became the additional factors that affect the expansion and shrinkage of the tree stems at the forest site. While it is interesting to note that the interrelationships among the micro-climatic factors at the forest site were well explained through this study, it should be recognized that the precision monitoring made possible with the application of high resolution sensors in the measurement of the radial increment combined with the observation of 10 minutes interval with aids of information and communication technology in the ecosystem observation.

A Design of Integrated Scientific Workflow Execution Environment for A Computational Scientific Application (계산 과학 응용을 위한 과학 워크플로우 통합 수행 환경 설계)

  • Kim, Seo-Young;Yoon, Kyoung-A;Kim, Yoon-Hee
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2012
  • Numerous scientists who are engaged in compute-intensive researches require more computing facilities than before, while the computing resource and techniques are increasingly becoming more advanced. For this reason, many works for e-Science environment have been actively invested and established around the world, but still the scientists look for an intuitive experimental environment, which is guaranteed the improved environmental facilities without additional configurations or installations. In this paper, we present an integrated scientific workflow execution environment for Scientific applications supporting workflow design with high performance computing infrastructure and accessibility for web browser. This portal supports automated consecutive execution of computation jobs in order of the form defined by workflow design tool and execution service concerning characteristics of each job to batch over distributed grid resources. Workflow editor of the portal presents a high-level frontend and easy-to-use interface with monitoring service, which shows the status of workflow execution in real time so that user can check the intermediate data during experiments. Therefore, the scientists can take advantages of the environment to improve the productivity of study based on HTC.

Relationship between Exposure Index and Overheating Index in Complex Terrain (복잡지형에서 사면 개방도과 계절별 과열지수 사이의 관계)

  • 정유란;황범석;서형호;윤진일
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.200-207
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    • 2003
  • '||'||'||'&'||'||'||'quot;Overheating index'||'||'||'&'||'||'||'quot;, the normalized difference in incident solar energy between a target surface and a level surface, is helpful in estimating the spatial variation in daily maximum temperature at the landscape scale. It can be computed as the ratio of the 4-hour cumulative solar irradiance surplus or deficit from that over a level surface to the maximum possible deviation (15 MJ $m^{-2}$ ) during the midafternoon. Ecosystem models may, for simplicity, use an empirical proxy (exposure index) variable combining slope and aspect in place of the overheating index to account for the variation of midafternoon solar irradiance. A comparative study with real-world landscape data was carried out to evaluate the performance of exposure index in replacing the overheating index. Overheating indices for summer solstice, fall equinox and winter solstice were calculated at 573,650 grid cells constituting the land surface of Donggye-Myun, Sunchang County in Korea, based on a 10-m DEM. Exposure index was also calculated for the same area and fitted for the variation of overheating index to derive a 2$^{nd}$ -order linear regression equation. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.50 on summer solstice, 0.56 on fall equinox, and 0.44 on winter solstice, respectively. These are much lower than the theoretically calculated $R^2$ values ranging from 0.7 in summer to 0.9 in autumn. According to our study, exposure index failed to accurately predict the cumulative solar irradiance over a complex terrain, hindering its application to daily maximum temperature estimation. We suggest direct calculation of the overheating index in preference to using the exposure index.

Performance of Northern Exposure Index in Reducing Estimation Error for Daily Maximum Temperature over a Rugged Terrain (북향개방지수가 복잡지형의 일 최고기온 추정오차 저감에 미치는 영향)

  • Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Kwang-Hoe;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.195-202
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    • 2007
  • The normalized difference in incident solar energy between a target surface and a level surface (overheating index, OHI) is useful in eliminating estimation error of site-specific maximum temperature in complex terrain. Due to the complexity in its calculation, however, an empirical proxy variable called northern exposure index (NEI) which combines slope and aspect has been used to estimate OHI based on empirical relationships between the two. An experiment with real-world landscape and temperature data was carried out to evaluate performance of the NEI - derived OHI (N-OHI) in reduction of spatial interpolation error for daily maximum temperature compared with that by the original OHI. We collected daily maximum temperature data from 7 sites in a mountainous watershed with a $149 km^2$ area and a 795m elevation range ($651{\sim}1,445m$) in Pyongchang, Kangwon province. Northern exposure index was calculated for the entire 166,050 grid cells constituting the watershed based on a 30-m digital elevation model. Daily OHI was calculated for the same watershed ana regressed to the variation of NEI. The regression equations were used to estimate N-OHI for 15th of each month. Deviations in daily maximum temperature at 7 sites from those measured at the nearby synoptic station were calculated from June 2006 to February 2007 and regressed to the N-OHI. The same procedure was repeated with the original OHI values. The ratio sum of square errors contributable by the N-OHI were 0.46 (winter), 0.24 (fall), and 0.01 (summer), while those by the original OHI were 0.52, 0.37 and 0.15, respectively.

The application of fuzzy spatial overlay method to the site selection using GSIS (GSIS를 이용한 입지선정에 있어 퍼지공간중첩기법의 적용에 관한 연구)

  • 임승현;조기성
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.177-187
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    • 1999
  • Up to date, in many application fields of GSIS, we usually have used vector-based spatial overlay or grid-based spatial algebra for extraction and analysis of spatial data. But, because these methods are based on traditional crisp set, concept which is used these methods. shows that many kinds of spatial data are partitioned with sharp boundary. That is not agree with spatial distribution pattern of data in the real world. Therefore, it has a error that a region or object is restricted within only one attribution (One-Entity-one-value). In this study, for improving previous methods that deal with spatial data based on crisp set, we are suggested to apply into spatial overlay process the concept of fuzzy set which is good for expressing the boundary vagueness or ambiguity of spatial data. two methods be given. First method is a fuzzy interval partition by fuzzy subsets in case of spatially continuous data, and second method is fuzzy boundary set applied on categorical data. with a case study to get a land suitability map for the development site selection of new town, we compared results between Boolean analysis method and fuzzy spatial overlay method. And as a result, we could find out that suitability map using fuzzy spatial overlay method provide more reasonable information about development site of new town, and is more adequate type in the aspect of presentation.

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