• Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.319-335
• /
• 2014

This study attempts to suggest an economic analysis model for SNG projects, which can reflect the future uncertainty objectively and applies the real option valuation incorporating the flexible investment decision. Based on this analysis model, net present value and internal rate of return were estimated by using preliminary feasibility study report of SNG project. And economic evaluation of SNG project was performed with real option valuation using binomial option model. Through this, the difference of analysis results between the real option valuation model and the discounted cash flow model were compared and the usefulness of the real option valuation model was confirmed. From the actual proof analysis, it is confirmed that the real option valuation model showed higher SNG project value than the discounted cash flow model did. It was confirmed that by applying the real option valuation model, economic analysis can be performed on not only the current straightforward SNG project, but also various future portfolios having options such as expansion, modification, or decommission.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.129-142
• /
• 2001

This paper reviews real option theory and its recent application to management studies involving highly risky business. Three problems are identified in previous studies that created confusions in the application of real option view. It is proposed in this paper that by explicitly stating the underlying real asset on which real option is written, researchers can prevent real option analysis from becoming a tautology and clarify three problems identified in this paper.

• Knowledge Management Research
• /
• v.9 no.4
• /
• pp.113-125
• /
• 2008

Net present value (NPV) and return on investment (ROI) are commonly used to evaluate investment in new technologies. Sometimes, however, measuring the value of investment in new IT becomes very difficult due to its wide scope of application coupled with embedded options in its adoption. Therefore, comprehensive but easily understandable methodologies are needed to solve the complicated problems resulting from the complexity of new technologies. This paper employs a real option analysis to evaluate RFID adoption in the supply chain. Real options analysis should be a better way to evaluate a disruptive technology like RFID. However, the pure (probabilistic) real option rule characterizes the present value of expected cash flows and the expected costs by a single number, which is not realistic in many cases. To solve the problem, this paper considers the real option rule in a more realistic setting, namely, when the present values of expected cash flows and expected costs are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
• /
• v.24 no.2
• /
• pp.125-141
• /
• 2019

This paper provides economic analysis for a residential photovoltaic (PV) power system of 5 districts in China and Thailand, using SAM (System Advisor Model) data. Unlike existing literature, the analysis is conducted from the investment timing perspective, as applying to a real option model which can incorporate the cost uncertainty of the PV system and a resident's option to delay the investment. This study shows that the gap of optimal investment times between a real option model and a generally used net present value model ranges from about 6 to 14 years. Also, we found a contracting result for a particular district that, while the investment is appropriate according to the net present value model, it is more reasonable to delay the PV system investment in terms of the real option model.

• Korean Management Science Review
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.17-26
• /
• 2014

This study presents a new real estate value analysis model considering the changes in the population structure. We propose a new model that takes advantage of the binomial option model one of the techniques of real options and considers the changes in the population structure. The real estate market price data of Seoul city from year 2001 to 2012 were extracted and the correlation analysis between real estate prices and changes in the population structure was performed. The result shows that they have positive correlation with one year time lag. The coefficient between the real estate prices and demographic changes was estimated using the OLS analysis and included in the traditional binomial option model to calculate the value of the property. It is assumed for the future price prediction that real estate invested in Seoul in January, 2013 will be sold within five years. Analysis result shows that the values of real estate in September of 2013 were predicted as 583.5 million won in the new model and as 582.4 million won in the traditional model. This reflects that the new model considering the change of population change gives better realistic performance than the traditional one.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
• /
• v.10 no.2 s.39
• /
• pp.137-145
• /
• 2007

In traditional financial theory, the discount cash flow model(DCF or NPV) operates as the basic framework for most analyses. In doing valuation analysis, the conventional view is that the net present value(NPV) of a project is the measure of the present value of expected net cash flows. Thus, investing in a positive(negative) NPV project will increase(decrease) firm value. Recently, this framework has come under some fire for failing to consider the options of the managerial flexibilities. Real option valuation(ROV) considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding the implementation of investment projects and the deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real assets based on the Black-Sholes option pricing model, the binomial option pricing model, and the Monte Carlo simulation. This paper uses those models to obtain point estimates of real option value with the G7- HSR350X(high-speed train).

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.41-66
• /
• 2013

IS outsourcing has an important meaning to the Korean SME's (Small and Medium Enterprises) which want to use the IS Services. The objective of this research is to manage IT risks occurred during IS outsourcing project process. This study tries to identify these risks using real option methodology. In order to perform this objective, this study set up the research model which is composed of two main concepts. The first one is the risk factors occurred during IS outsourcing project process: User's Risks, Supplier's Risks and Transaction's Risks. All of these risks are based on Transaction Cost Theory. The second one is the intention to get (or buy) Real Options to manage the risks. In the research model, two types of real option are included: option to abandon (put option) and option to defer (call option). This study uses questionnaires and statistics methodology (PLS) to analyze the hypotheses proposed in the research model. Compared with prior studies, this study is different in two ways. First, this study restricts the range of IT risks. Prior researches of IT Risk management in MIS area cover various range of IT risks, but this study focuses on the Korean SME's IT outsourcing risks on the basis of Transaction Cost Theory. This study tests the relationship between the risks and real option types. Second, this study tries to test the moderating effect of user's risks and supplier's risks on the relationship between transaction's risks and real option types. In IT outsourcing research area, almost studies focus on the direct relationships between IT risks and outsourcing success. But in reality, the co-relationship among IT risks may occur. There are some findings according to the research analysis. First, risks related with user's risks have strong causal relationships with the intention to get option to abandon (put) and option to defer. But risks related with supplier's risks have causal relationships only with option to abandon (put). Second, user's risks and supplier's risks have no moderating effect on the relationship between transaction's risks and real option types. According to the research results, this research have some important and interesting implications on the IS outsourcing business area. First, this study identifies the effective types of real option to minimize the risks occurred during the IT outsourcing projects. So IS outsourcing service users can manage (or minimize) effectively the risks, which occurred during outsourcing projects, using real options. Second, real option gives benefits to suppliers and users at the same time (i.e., win-win strategies between IS outsourcing service providers and users). Vendors (:IS outsourcing service providers) can offer users the real options which can minimize the occurrence of risks in time. "IN TIME" means that before the IS outsourcing project starts, vendors can offer users the opportunity to buy real options in appropriate prices to manage the possibility of the risks of IS outsourcing project. And users also have chance to minimize the IT outsourcing risks occurred during the project process using real options.

• Plant Journal
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.42-48
• /
• 2012

Under traditional analysis of the capital budgeting, NPV, it is assumed that management cannot react to deviation from the expected scenario of cash flow at the time of evaluation. In practice, however, it is less likely that the expected scenario will come true when new information arrives and uncertainty is resolved. Uncertainty and risk can be influenced through 'managerial flexibility', which becomes a central instrument for value creation. Real option framework including option to defer, option for staged investment, option to alter, option to abandon, option to switch, etc. takes this managerial flexibility into account. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use real option method to evaluate the project than the traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) tool if the firm has high volatility of the expected returns.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.16 no.5
• /
• pp.114-122
• /
• 2015

Real estate development requires significant amount of capital investment. The project duration has been increased according to its enlarged size. For this reason, cost overrun and time delay are important risk factors that should be managed properly. As a method to hedge the risk, varoius real option methods have been presented. However, conventional project value assesment methods such as NPV(Net Present Value) have weakness to support decision making by reflecting dynamic situations in terms of variation of cost and time. Furthermore, the decision making process is serious of actions rather than discrete event. The purpose of this paper is to present a multiple real option valuation method to overcome the deterministic aspect of real option presented in previous research and practice. The method is developed as following: firstly, to select the model that can be applied in the real estate development project through a survey from previous literature on real options analysis; secondly, to apply data from office development case in order to verify the model by applying conventional real option and multiple real option valuation. According to analysis result, multiple real option provides enhanced values comparing to NPV and single real option.

• Korean Management Science Review
• /
• v.31 no.3
• /
• pp.95-111
• /
• 2014

It is essential to carry out an economic analysis on public water supply projects so that policy makers and water enterprises are aware of the actual value of the project. However, many popular approaches based on discounted cash flow analysis do not capture the uncertainties inherent in cash flow. In order to analyze the economic values of the water supply project of local governments, we utilize real option model, which considers uncertainty in future water price behavior and captures the value of real life flexibility. The real option model is designed to incorporate the option to expand and abandon, and it is applied to a local government case. Furthermore, we assess the project by exploring Luehrman's option space to accommodate the more efficient decision making. The results show that substantial amount of potential value is included in the public water supply service, and the overall value is greater than the value obtained from the discounted cash flow model.