• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• 제43권4호
• /
• pp.337-351
• /
• 2010

There is a growing dissatisfaction with use of conventional statistical methods for the prediction of extreme events. Conventional methodology for modeling extreme event consists of adopting an asymptotic model to describe stochastic variation. However asymptotically motivated models remain the centerpiece of our modeling strategy, since without such an asymptotic basis, models have no rational for extrapolation beyond the level of observed data. Also, this asymptotic models ignored or overestimate the uncertainty and finally decrease the reliability of uncertainty. Therefore this article provide the research example of the extreme rainfall event and the methodology to reduce the uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian MCMC (Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) and the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) methods using a quadratic approximation are applied to perform the at-site rainfall frequency analysis. Especially, the GEV distribution and Gumbel distribution which frequently used distribution in the fields of rainfall frequency distribution are used and compared. Also, the results of two distribution are analyzed and compared in the aspect of uncertainty.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• 제34권2호
• /
• pp.261-277
• /
• 2020

The main objective of this research paper is to consider vibration analysis of vacancy defected graphene sheet as a nonisotropic structure via molecular dynamic and continuum approaches. The influence of structural defects on the vibration of graphene sheets is considered by applying the mechanical properties of defected graphene sheets. Molecular dynamic simulations have been performed to estimate the mechanical properties of graphene as a nonisotropic structure with single- and double- vacancy defects using open source well-known software i.e., large-scale atomic/molecular massively parallel simulator (LAMMPS). The interactions between the carbon atoms are modelled using Adaptive Intermolecular Reactive Empirical Bond Order (AIREBO) potential. An isogeometric analysis (IGA) based upon non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) is employed for approximation of single-layered graphene sheets deflection field and the governing equations are derived using nonlocal elasticity theory. The dependence of small-scale effects, chirality and different defect types on vibrational characteristic of graphene sheets is investigated in this comprehensive research work. In addition, numerical results are validated and compared with those achieved using other analysis, where an excellent agreement is found. The interesting results indicate that increasing the number of missing atoms can lead to decrease the natural frequencies of graphene sheets. It is seen that the degree of the detrimental effects differ with defect type. The Young's and shear modulus of the graphene with SV defects are much smaller than graphene with DV defects. It is also observed that Single Vacancy (SV) clusters cause more reduction in the natural frequencies of SLGS than Double Vacancy (DV) clusters. The effectiveness and the accuracy of the present IGA approach have been demonstrated and it is shown that the IGA is efficient, robust and accurate in terms of nanoplate problems.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
• /
• 제31권4호
• /
• pp.157-166
• /
• 1994

Recently. the excessive diesel engine torsional excitation of typical energy saving ships has resulted in severe damages of the propeller shaft. Up to now the design and torsional vibration analysis of the marine diesel shafting system has been performed on the assumption that excitations are deterministic. But a diesel engine excitation varies randomly from cylinder to cylinder and from cycle to cycle, due to the imperfect operation of the engine components due to engine misfiring. consequently, a more rational analysis method for the propulsion shafting torsional vibration is required. In this paper probabilistic analysis method of the marine diesel engine shafting system under torsional vibration is presented. First a response surface representing maximum shear stresses in a shafting system is built. Then Monte Carlo simulation with subsequent approximation of the results by one of Pearson's curves, is performed. Some numerical results based on the proposed method are compared with t도 some numerical data available. They show acceptable agreements with the data.