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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

Intents of Acquisitions in Information Technology Industrie (정보기술 산업에서의 인수 유형별 인수 의도 분석)

  • Cho, Wooje;Chang, Young Bong;Kwon, Youngok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 2016
  • This study investigates intents of acquisitions in information technology industries. Mergers and acquisitions are a strategic decision at corporate-level and have been an important tool for a firm to grow. Plenty of firms in information technology industries have acquired startups to increase production efficiency, expand customer base, or improve quality over the last decades. For example, Google has made about 200 acquisitions since 2001, Cisco has acquired about 210 firms since 1993, Oracle has made about 125 acquisitions since 1994, and Microsoft has acquired about 200 firms since 1987. Although there have been many existing papers that theoretically study intents or motivations of acquisitions, there are limited papers that empirically investigate them mainly because it is challenging to measure and quantify intents of M&As. This study examines the intent of acquisitions by measuring specific intents for M&A transactions. Using our measures of acquisition intents, we compare the intents by four acquisition types: (1) the acquisition where a hardware firm acquires a hardware firm, (2) the acquisition where a hardware firm acquires a software/IT service firm, (3) the acquisition where a software/IT service firm acquires a hardware firm, and (4) the acquisition where a software /IT service firm acquires a software/IT service firm. We presume that there are difference in reasons why a hardware firm acquires another hardware firm, why a hardware firm acquires a software firm, why a software/IT service firm acquires a hardware firm, and why a software/IT service firm acquires another software/IT service firm. Using data of the M&As in US IT industries, we identified major intents of the M&As. The acquisition intents are identified based on the press release of M&A announcements and measured with four categories. First, an acquirer may have intents of cost saving in operations by sharing common resources between the acquirer and the target. The cost saving can accrue from economies of scope and scale. Second, an acquirer may have intents of product enhancement/development. Knowledge and skills transferred from the target may enable the acquirer to enhance the product quality or to expand product lines. Third, an acquirer may have intents of gain additional customer base to expand the market, to penetrate the market, or to enter a foreign market. Fourth, a firm may acquire a target with intents of expanding customer channels. By complementing existing channel to the customer, the firm can increase its revenue. Our results show that acquirers have had intents of cost saving more in acquisitions between hardware companies than in acquisitions between software companies. Hardware firms are more likely to acquire with intents of product enhancement or development than software firms. Overall, the intent of product enhancement/development is the most frequent intent in all of the four acquisition types, and the intent of customer base expansion is the second. We also analyze our data with the classification of production-side intents and customer-side intents, which is based on activities of the value chain of a firm. Intents of cost saving operations and those of product enhancement/development can be viewed as production-side intents and intents of customer base expansion and those of expanding customer channels can be viewed as customer-side intents. Our analysis shows that the ratio between the number of customer-side intents and that of production-side intents is higher in acquisitions where a software firm is an acquirer than in the acquisitions where a hardware firm is an acquirer. This study can contribute to IS literature. First, this study provides insights in understanding M&As in IT industries by answering for question of why an IT firm intends to another IT firm. Second, this study also provides distribution of acquisition intents for acquisition types.

Evaluation of Adsorption Characteristics of the Media for Biofilter Design (바이오필터설계를 위한 바이오필터 담체의 흡착 특성)

  • Lee, Eun-Ju;Lim, Kwang-Hee
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.994-1001
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    • 2008
  • Freundlich isothermal adsorption parameters, applicable to such biofilter-model as process-lumping model(Lim's model), for sterilized granular activated carbon(GAC), sterilized compost and sterilized equal volume mixture of GAC and compost were obtained and were compared each other, assuming that adsorbents are enclosed by water layer, in order to construct robust process-lumping biofilter model effective for wide-range of hydrophilic volatile organic compounds(VOC). In this investigation 0.04, 0.08, 0.12, 0.16, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8 and 1.0ml of ethanol were added to three kinds of adsorbent-media and were placed at $30^{\circ}{\cdots}$ under the wet condition of the media, which was the same as biofilter operating condition, until the adsorption reached the condition of equilibrium before each adsorbed amount of ethanol was obtained. Then adsorption capacity parameters(K) and adsorption exponents of Freundlich adsorption isotherm equation, which simulates the adsorbed amount of ethanol equilibrated with the ethanol concentration of the condensed water in the pore of the media, were constructed for sterilized granular activated carbon(GAC), sterilized compost and sterilized equal volume mixture of GAC and compost as (0.7566 and $5.070{\times}10^{-7}mg-ethanol/mgmedia/(mg-ethanol/m^3)^{0.7566}$), (0.8827 and $1.000{\times}10^{-8}mg-ethanol/mgmedia/(mg-ethanol/m^3)^{0.8827}$) and (0.5688 and $5.243{\times}10^{-6}mg-ethanol/mgmedia/(mg-ethanol/m^3)^{0.5688}$), respectively. These Freundlich isothermal adsorption parameters were applicable to the adsorption characteristics of biofilter media enclosed with bio-layer. The order of magnitude of the ratio of ethanol-air/water partition coefficient and toluene-air/water partition coefficient was almost consistent to that of ethanol-adsorbed amounts in this experiment with compost and in the investigation of Delhomenie et al. on toluene-adsorption to wet compost.

Study on LiFePO4 Composite Cathode Materials to Enhance Thermal Stability of Hybrid Capacitor (하이브리드 커패시터의 열안정성 개선을 위한 LiFePO4 복합양극 소재에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Tae-Soon;Park, Ji-Hyun;Kang, Seok-Won;Jeong, Rag-Gyo;Han, Sang-Jin
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.242-246
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    • 2017
  • The application of composite cathode materials including $LiFePO_4$ (lithium iron phosphate) of olivine crystal structure, which has high thermal stability, were investigated as alternatives for hybrid battery-capacitors with a $LiMn_2O_4$ (spinel crystal structure) cathode, which exhibits decreased performance at high temperatures due to Mn-dissolution. However, these composite cathode materials have been shown to have a reduction in capacity by conducting life cycle experiments in which a $LiFePO_4$/activated carbon cell was charged and discharged between 1.0 V and 2.3 V at two temperatures, $25^{\circ}C$ and $60^{\circ}C$, which caused a degradation of the anode due to the lowered voltage in the anode. To avoid the degradation of the anode, composite cathodes of $LiFePO_4/LiMn_2O_4$ (50:50 wt%), $LiFePO_4$/activated carbon (50:50 wt%) and $LiNi_{1/3}Co_{1/3}Mn_{1/3}O_2$ (50:50 wt%) were prepared and the life cycle experiments were conducted on these cells. The composite cathode including $LiNi_{1/3}Co_{1/3}Mn_{1/3}O_2$ of layered crystal structure showed stable voltage behavior. The discharge capacity retention ratio of $LiNi_{1/3}Co_{1/3}Mn_{1/3}O_2$ was about twice as high as that of a $LiFePO_4/LiMn_2O_4$ cell at thermal stability experiment for a duration of 1,000 hours charged at 2.3 V and a temperature of $80^{\circ}C$.

Genome-wide Association Study Identification of a New Genetic Locus with Susceptibility to Osteoporotic Fracture in the Korean Population

  • Hwang, Joo-Yeon;Lee, Seung-Hun;Go, Min-Jin;Kim, Beom-Jun;Kim, Young-Jin;Kim, Dong-Joon;Oh, Ji-Hee;Koo, Hee-Jo;Cha, My-Jung;Lee, Min-Hye;Yun, Ji-Young;Yoo, Hye-Sook;Kang, Young-Ah;Oh, Ki-Won;Kang, Moo-Il;Son, Ho-Young;Kim, Shin-Yoon;Kim, Ghi-Su;Han, Bok-Ghee;Cho, Yoon-Shin;Koh, Jung-Min;Lee, Jong-Young
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.52-58
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    • 2011
  • Osteoporotic fracture (OF), along with bone mineral density (BMD), is an important diagnostic parameter and a clinical predictive risk factor in the assessment of osteoporosis in the elderly population. However, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on OF has not yet been clarified sufficiently. To identify OF-associated genetic variants and candidate genes, we conducted a GWAS in a population-based cohort (Korean Association Resource [KARE], n=1,427 [case: 288 and control: 1139]) and performed a de novo replication study in hospital-based individuals (Asan and Catholic Medical Center [ACMC], n=1,082 [case: 272 and control: 810]). In a combined meta-analysis, a newly identified genetic locus in an intergenic region at 10p11.2 (near genes FZD8 and ANKRD30A ) showed the most significant association (odd ratio [OR] = 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.47~2.74, p=$1.27{\times}10^{-6}$) in the same direction. We provide the first evidence for a common genetic variant influencing OF and genetic information for further investigation in bone metabolism.

Seasonal Variation in Photosynthetic Characteristics and Chlorophyll Content of the Loranthus tanakae, Viscum album var. coloratum and its Hosts in Korea (계절에 따른 국내 자생 꼬리겨우살이, 겨우살이 및 기주목의 광합성 특성과 엽록소 함량)

  • Lee, Sugwang;Lee, Seong Han;Woo, Su Young;Kang, Hoduck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.1
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    • pp.50-59
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    • 2015
  • We investigated seasonal variation in photosynthetic characteristics and chlorophyll content of the Loranthus tanakae, Viscum album var. coloratum and its hosts in Korea. The maximum photosynthesis and transpiration rate of L. tanakae were $9.36{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$ at $941{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$ PAR (photosynthetically active radiation) in June, $5.06{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$ at $1,596{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$ PAR in July, respectively. The maximum photosynthesis and transpiration rate of V. album var. coloratum were $6.51{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$ at $418{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$ PAR in Autumn, $3.91{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$ at $1,735{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$ PAR in Autumn, respectively. V. album var. coloratum was able to conduct photosynthesis in November whereas its host and L. tanakae were not able to conduct photosynthesis. Especially transpiration rate of L. tanakae were always higher than its host and V. album var. coloratum. The chlorophyll a+b contents of L. tanakae was $8.23mg{\cdot}g^{-1}$ in July, V. album var. coloratum was $10.27mg{\cdot}g^{-1}$ in June, and chlorophyll a/b ratio of L. tanakae was 1.7~3.7, V. album var. coloratum was 1.1~4.5, depend on season.

A Comparative Analysis of Cognitive Levels of 11th Grade Students and Cognitive Levels Required by High School Chemistry I Textbooks (고등학교 2학년 학생들의 인지수준과 화학 I 교과서 내용이 요구하는 인지수준 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Eun-Suk;Park, Kwang-Seo;Oh, Chang-Ho;Kim, Dong-Jin;Park, Kuk-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.645-653
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to compare and analyze the cognitive levels of 11th grade students and those required in high school chemistry I textbooks standardized by the 7th national education curriculum. For this study, the cognitive development stages of 456 11th grade students were surveyed using short-version GALT (group assessment of logical thinking). Furthermore, 15 basic concepts were extracted from the contents on water and air, 2 units in chemistry I order to analyze the cognitive levels necessary for understanding high school textbooks, using CAT (curriculum analysis taxonomy). The results showed that 52.5% of the surveyed 11th grade students reached the formal operational level, 28.3% transitional levels, and 19.5% concrete operational levels. 68.9% of the academic high school students and 6.6% of the technical high school students reached the formal operational levels, and the ratio of formation was very different in each logics. As a result of the analyzing the cognitive levels needed for understanding chemistry I textbook contents, in spite of a change in national education curriculum, there were no great change in cognitive levels required by scientific concept except some inquiry activities. The cognitive levels in high school chemistry I textbooks by the 7th national education curriculum appeared higher than the cognitive levels of 11th grade student, but cognitive levels of inquiry activities were similar to the cognitive levels of the students. Chemistry teachers thought of chemistry I textbooks by the 7th national education curriculum as desirable because scientific concepts were reduced and a lot of real life materials were adapted. However, they pointed out a problem of difference in contents levels compared with chemistry I textbooks because scientific concepts were greatly reduced in chemistry I textbooks. The cognitive levels required in chemistry I textbooks still appeared higher than those of the students. Consequently, various teaching and learning methods and materials will have to be developed to be suitable for the students' cognitive levels.

Studies on the Strength of Briquette Ash Hardened by Cement (연탄재를 시멘트로서 경화(硬化)시켰을 때의 강도(强度)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Seong-Wan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 1979
  • This study made to find the variation of strengths of briquette ash which were hardened into cement. The briquette ash were mixed with the cement, ((cement (90%)+slaked lime (10%)) and ((cement (80%)+fly ash (20%)) in the ratio of 1:2, 1:3, 1:4, 1:5, 1:7 and 1:9, respectively, and these were compared with the one made of cement plus standard sand in the strengths of compression, tension and bending at the ages of 7 days and 28 days. The results from the study conducted preliminary without studying the economical aspects or duration of the products are summarized as follows: 1. The compressive strengths of mortar made of 1 to 2 ratios of cement to briquette ash, (cement+slaked lime) to briquette ash and (cement+fly ash) to briquette ash were 84%, 90% and 75% at the age of 7 days and 84.9%, 73.5% and 69.8%, respectively of those of Korean Standard values. 2. The compressive strength s of mortar made of 1 to 2 ratios of cement to briquette ash, (cement+slaked lime) to briquette ash and (cement+fly ash) to briquette ash were 69.3%, 75.1% and 41.3% at the age of 7 days and 56.4%, 49%, and 46.5% at the age of 28 days, respectively of the mortar made of standard sand. 3. The tension strengths of mortar made of 1 to 2 ratios of cement to briquette ash, (cement+slaked lime) to briquette ash, and (cement+fly ash) to briquette ash were 64.4%, 47.1% and 35.4% at the age of 7days and 69.6%, 64.8%, and 57.3%, respectively of that of the mort ar produced with standard sand. 4. The bending strengths of mortar made of 1 to 2 ratios of cement to briquette ash, (cement+slaked lime) to briquette ash, and (cement+fly ash) to briquette ash were 46.3%, 65.9% and 39.1% at the age of 7 days and 89.9%, 96.7%, and 85.1%, respectively of that of mortar produced with standard sand. 5. The bending strength of the mortar was lower than that of cement mortar, when the briquette ash were harqened into cement. However, the mortar produced by such method seemed to be used as the secondary products of cement or concrete. The additional usefullness of the hardened biquette ash can be found in contributing toward the solving the various pollution problems, the saving the labor costs needed to clean-up waste materials, and the saving the construction materials.

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A Study on the Biology of Primary Parasites of the Cow-pea aphid, Aphis craccivora Koch (Aphididae, Homo.) and its Hyperparasites (아카시아진딧물에 기생하는 진디벌과 이의 중기생봉에 관한 연구)

  • Chang Young-Duck;Youn Young-Nam
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.22 no.4 s.57
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    • pp.237-243
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    • 1983
  • A biological study was done on primary parasites and hyperparasites of cow-pea aphid, Aphis craccivora Koch, collected from Mt. Gyeryong and Daejeon area during the period from April to September 1983 was. The results of mummification of primary parasites, host selectivity between primary parasites and hyperparasites and ratio of mummification, no. of ar chegonia and longevity of important species were obtained as follows; Eight species of Aphidiidae were identified and listed and four of them, Binodoxys nearactaphidis Mackauer, Lipolexis scutellaris Mackauer, Lysiphlebus salicaphis(Fitch)and Trioxys hokkaidensis Takada found for the first time in Korea. Among the 509 mummies collected in the field, adult Aphidiid and adult hyperparasites were $44.8\%,\;and\;43.8\%$, respectively. Lysiphlebus ambiguus, Lysiphlebus salicaphis, Lysiphlebia japonica and Lipolexis scutellaris were a few of important species attacking cow-pea aphid and the rate of their occurrences were $31.6\%,\;18.8\%,\;16.7\%\;and\;11.4\%$, respectively. All the hyperparasites collected from cow-pea aphid were recorded for the first time in Korea; those were Lygocerus testaceimonus Kieffer, Protaphelinus nikolskajae (Jasnosh), Eucoila sp., Gastranscistrus sp., Ardilea convexa(Walker), Asaphes vulgaris Walker. Among the collected hyperparasites, Eucoila sp., A. vulgaris and A. Convexa were dominant species and their occurence rate was $39.9\%,\;34.1\%\;and\;19.7\%$, respectively. As a results of analysis on parasite-hyperparasite interrelationship in cow-pea aphid, Lipolexis scutellaris was attacked from 3 out of 6 hyperparasites and the others was attacked from almost all the hyperparasites. Lysiphlebus ambiguus was higher than Lysiphlebia japonica in the ability of parasitism. There was no difference between Lysiphlebus ambiguus(272) and Lysiphlebia japonica(279) in number of archegonia, but L. ambiguus$(66.9\%)$ was higher than L. japonica$(43.0\%)$ in the rate of mummification to archegonia. The longevity of Aphidiidae and hyperparasites was investigated by feeding honey. The results showed that hyperparasites had lived 15.8 to 21. 5 days, while Aphiidiidae lived only 2 to 3 days.

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Studies on the Resistance of Green Peach Aphids to Insecticides(II) -Local Differences in Susceptibility- (복숭아혹진딧물의 살충제(殺蟲劑) 저항성(抵抗性)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(II) 감수성(感受性)의 지역적(地域的) 차이(差異))

  • Choi, Seung-Yoon;Kim, Gil-Hah
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.24 no.4 s.65
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    • pp.223-230
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    • 1986
  • A series of experiments were carried out to evaluate the differences in susceptibility of the 13-aphidicidial insecticides in the green peach aphids(Myzus persicae) collected from 13 different localities. The aphids were reared and increased on the potted tobacco plants in the laboratory. The susceptibility to insecticides was compared at the $LC_{50}$ levels with the resistant ratio by a leaf-dip method with a laboratory strain reared for 2 years in the laboratory without exposure to insecticides. The susceptibility to the insecticides was greatly varied with the local strains. The local strains demonstrated relatively high resistance to the insecticides over the laboratory strain at the $LC_{50}$ level; in resistant fold, 2.3 to 519.0 to cypermenthrin, 2.3 to 494.5 to decamethrin, 2.8 to 442.4 to fenvalerate, 2.5 to 170.6 to formothion, 1.5 to 494.5 to decamethrin, 2.8 to 442.4 to fenvalerate, 2.5 to 170.6 to formothion, 1.5 to 231.8 to phosphamidon, 3.1 to 42.1 to monocrotophos, 1.0 to 30.9 to phenthoate+dimethoate, 1.8 to 21.0 to heptanophos, 2.1 to 24.8 to oxydemeton-methyl, 1.0 to 24.9 to thiometon, 1.6 to 4.7 acephate, 0.8 to 4.1 to pirimicarb.

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