• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rating Methods

Search Result 2,090, Processing Time 0.038 seconds

A Study on Setup for Preliminary Decision Criterion of Continuum Rock Mass Slope with Fair to Good Rating (양호한 연속체 암반사면의 예비 판정기준 설정 연구)

  • Kim, Hyung-Min;Lee, Su-gon;Lee, Byok-Kyu;Woo, Jae-Gyung
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.85-97
    • /
    • 2019
  • It can be observed that steep slopes ($65^{\circ}$ to $80^{\circ}$) consist of rock masses were kept stable for a long time. In rock-mass slopes with similar ground condition, steeper slopes than 1 : 0.5 ($63^{\circ}$) may be applied if the discontinuities of rock-mass slope are distributed in a direction favorable to the stability of the slope. In making a decision the angle of the slope, if the preliminary rock mass conditions applicable to steep slope are quantitatively setup, they may be used as guidance in design practice. In this study, the above rock mass was defined as a good continuum rock mass and the quantitative setup criterion range was proposed using RMR, SMR and GSI classifications for the purpose of providing engineering standard for good continuum rock mass conditions. The methods of study are as follows. The stable slope at steep slopes ($65^{\circ}$ to $80^{\circ}$) for each rock type was selected as the study area, and RMR, SMR and GSI were classified to reflect the face mapping results. The results were reviewed by applying the calculated shear strength to the stable analysis of the current state of rock mass slope using the Hoek-Brown failure criterion. It is intended to verify the validity of the preliminary criterion as a rock mass condition that remains stable on a steep slope. Based on the analysis and review by the above research method, it was analyzed that a good continuum rock mass slope can be set to Basic RMR ${\geq}50$ (45 in sedimentary rock), GSI and SMR ${\geq}45$. The safety factor of the LEM is between Fs = 14.08 and 67.50 (average 32.9), and the displacement of the FEM is 0.13 to 0.64 mm (average 0.27 mm). This can be seen as a result of quantitative representation and verification of the stability of a good continuum rock mass slope that has been maintained stable for a long period of time with steep slopes ($65^{\circ}$ to $80^{\circ}$). The setup guideline for a good continuum rock mass slope will be able to establish a more detailed setup standard when the data are accumulated, and it is also a further study project. If stable even on steep slopes of 1 : 0.1 to 0.3, the upper limit of steep slopes is 1 : 0.3 with reference to the overseas design standards and report, thus giving the benefit of ensuring economic and eco-friendlyness. Also, the development of excavation technology and plantation technology and various eco-friendly slope design techniques will help overcome psychological anxiety and rapid weathering and relaxation due to steep slope construction.

Association between Medial Temporal Atrophy, White Matter Hyperintensities, Neurocognitive Functions and Activities of Daily Living in Patients with Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment (알츠하이머병 및 경도인지장애 환자에서 내측두엽 위축, 대뇌백질병변, 신경인지기능과 일상생활 수행능력과의 연관성)

  • An, Min hyuk;Kim, Hyun;Lee, Kang Joon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.67-76
    • /
    • 2021
  • Objectives : The aim of this study was to compare activities of daily living (ADLs) according to degenerative changes in brain [i.e., medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA), white matter hyperintensities] and to examine the association between neurocognitive functions and ADLs in Korean patients with dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods : Participants were 111 elderly subjects diagnosed with AD or MCI in this cross-sectional study. MTA in brain MRI was rated with standardized visual rating scales (Scheltens scale) and the subjects were divided into two groups according to Scheltens scale. ADLs was evaluated with the Korean version of Blessed Dementia Scale-Activity of daily living (BDS-ADL). Neurocognitive function was evaluated with the Korean version of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease assessment packet (CERAD-K). Independent t-test was performed to compare ADLs with the degree of MTA. Pearson correlation and hierarchical multiple regression analyses were performed to analyze the relationship between ADLs and neurocognitive functions. Results : The group with high severity of the MTA showed significantly higher BDS-ADL scores (p<0.05). The BDS-ADL score showed the strongest correlation with the word list recognition test among sub-items of the CERAD-K test (r=-0.568). Findings from the hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that the scores of MMSE-K and word list recognition test were factors that predict ADLs (F=44.611, p<0.001). Conclusions : ADLs of AD and MCI patients had significant association with MTA. Our study, which identifies factors correlated with ADLs can provide useful information in clinical settings. Further evaluation is needed to confirm the association between certain brain structures and ADLs.

Development of an evaluation tool for dietary guideline adherence in the elderly (노인의 식생활지침 실천 평가도구 개발)

  • Young-Suk Lim;Ji Soo Oh;Hye-Young Kim
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
    • /
    • v.57 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-15
    • /
    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed to develop a comprehensive tool for assessing dietary guideline adherence among older Korean adults, focusing on the domains of food and nutrient intake, eating habits, and dietary culture. Methods: Candidate items were selected through a literature search and expert advice. The degree of adherence to dietary guidelines was then evaluated through a face-to-face survey conducted on 800 elderly individuals across five nationwide regions. The items for dietary guideline adherence evaluation tool were selected through exploratory factor analysis of the candidate items in each of the three areas of the dietary guidelines, and construct validity was verified by performing confirmatory factor analysis. Using the path coefficient of the structural equation model, weights were assigned to each area and item to calculate the dietary guideline adherence score. A rating system for the evaluation tool was established based on national survey results. Results: A total of twenty-eight items were selected for evaluating dietary guideline adherence among the elderly. Thirteen items related to food intake, seven to eating habits, and eight to dietary culture. The average score for dietary guideline adherence was 56.9 points, with 49.8 points in the food intake area, 63.2 points in the eating habits area, and 58.6 points in the dietary culture area. Statistically significant correlations were found between dietary guideline adherence scores and food literacy (r = 0.679) and nutrition quotient scores (r = 0.750). Conclusion: The developed evaluation tool for dietary guideline adherence among Korean older adults can be used as a simple and effective instrument for comprehensively assessing their food and nutrient intake, dietary habits, and dietary culture.

CLINICAL AND NEUROPSYCHOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF DSM-IV SUBTYPES OF ATTENTION DEFICIT HYPERACTIVITY DISORDER (주의력결핍 과잉행동장애의 아형별 신경심리학적 특성 비교)

  • Cheung, Seung-Deuk;Lee, Jong-Bum;Kim, Jin-Sung;Seo, Wan-Seok;Bai, Dai-Seg;Chun, Eun-Jin;Suh, Hae-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.139-152
    • /
    • 2002
  • Objectives:This study was conducted to compare the clinical and neuropsychological characteristics by DSM-IV subtypes of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD) patients who did not have comorbid psychiatric disorders. Methods:5-15 year old children with ADHD were recruited at psychiatric outpatient clinic of Yeungnam University hospital and the patients with comorbidity or neurological abnormalities were excluded. Finally, total 404 children with ADHD were selected for this study. There were 234 subjects of ADHD-C(57.9%), 156 subjects of ADHD-I(38.6%) and 14 subjects of ADHD-HI(3.5%), who fulfilled the DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. The mean age of the total subjects was 9.63±2.49 years old. The psychopathology, IQ, behavioral problems, neuropsychological executive function were evaluated before pharmacological treatment. The measures were Korean Personality Inventory of Child(K-PIC) for psychopathology, 4 behavioral check lists(ADDES-HV, ACTeRS, CAP, SNAP) for behavioral symptoms of ADHD, K-ABC and KEDI-WISC for IQ and Conner's CPT, WCST, SST for neuropsychological executive functions. Results:1) The prevalence of subtypes was ADHD-C, ADHD-I, ADHD-HI in decreasing order. There was no sex difference of prevalence among three subtypes. The mean age of ADHD-I was older than other subtypes. 2) There was significant differences of psychopathology among subtypes, the ADHD-C and ADHD-HI had higher than the ADHD-I in the scores of delinquent, hyperactivity and psychosis;the ADHD-C had higher than the ADHD-I in the scores of family relation and autism, the scores of ego resilience were lower than the ADHD-I. However, there was no difference in anxiety, depression and somatization scores among them. 3) The results of behavioral symptom check lists, the ADHD-C had higher the score of inattention, hyperactivity and impulsivity than the ADHD-I. Meanwhile the results of ACTeRs, which rated by the teachers, were different. 4) There were significant differences of sequential processing scale and arithmetics among subtypes in IQ using K-ABC, but there was no significant difference between the ADHD-C and the ADHD-I after excluding the ADHD-HI due to small numbers. 5) There was numerical difference among subtypes but did not reach statistical significance in three neuropsychological executive function tests. Conclusion:In conclusion, our results revealed that there was significant difference in clinical features among three subtypes but, no significant difference in executive functions.

  • PDF

A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.23-46
    • /
    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

Analysis of Quantitative Indices in Tl-201 Myocardial Perfusion SPECT: Comparison of 4DM, QPS, and ECT Program (Tl-201 심근 관류 SPECT에서 4DM, QPS, ECT 프로그램의 정량적 지표 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Dong-Hun;Shim, Dong-Oh;Yoo, Hee-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.67-75
    • /
    • 2009
  • Purpose: As to the analytical method of data, the various programs in which it is used for the quantitative rating of the Tl-201 myocardial perfusion SPECT are reported that there is a difference. Therefore, the measured value error of the mutual program is expected to be generated even if the quantitative analysis is made against data of the same patient. Using quantitative index that able to represent myocardial perfusion defect level, we aimed to determine correlation among three myocardial perfusion analysis programs 4DM (4DMSPECT), QPS (Quantitative Perfusion SPECT), ECT (Emory Cardiac Toolbox) that be used generally in most departments of Nuclear Medicine. Materials and Methods: We analyzed the 145 patients who were examined by Tl-201 gated myocardial perfusion SPECT in department of nuclear medicine at Asan Mediacal Center from December 1th 2008 to February 14th 2008. We sorted as normal group and abnormal group. Normal group consist of 80 patients (Male/Female=38/42, age:$65.1{\pm}9.9$) who have low possibility of cardiovascular disease. And abnormal group consist of 65 patients (Male/Female=45/20, age:$63.0{\pm}8.7$) who were diagnosed cardiovascular disease with reversible perfusion defect or fixed perfusion defect through myocardial perfusion SPECT results. Using the 4DM, QPS, and ECT programs, the total defect extent (TDE) such as LAD, LCX, RCA and the summed stress score (SSS) have been analysed for their correlations and statistical comparison with the paried t-test for the quantitative indices analysed from each group. Results: The correlation of 4DM:QPS, QPS:ECT, ECT:4DM each group result from 145 patients is 0.84, 0.86, 0.82 at SSS, 0.87, 0.84, 0.87 at TDE, and both index showed good correlation. In paired t-test and Bland-Altman analysis results showed no statistically significant difference in the comparison of QPS:ECT at the mean SSS and TDE, 4DM:QPS, ECT:4DM comparative analysis results showed statistically significant difference at SSS and TDE index. The correlation of 4DM:QPS, QPS:ECT, ECT:4DM program results from abnormal group (65 patients) is 0.72, 0.72, 0.70 at SSS and 0.77, 0.70, 0.77 at TDE and TDE and SSS has a good correlation. In abnormal group, paired t-test and Bland-Altman analysis results showed no statistically significant difference at QPS:ECT SSS (p=0.89) and TDE (p=0.23) comparison, 4DM:QPS, ECT:4DM comparative analysis results showed statistically significant difference at SSS and TDE index (p<0.01). In normal group (80 patients), paired t-test and Bland-Altman analysis results showed no statistically significant difference at QPS:ECT SSS (p=0.95) and TDE (p=0.73) comparison. And 4DM:QPS, ECT:4DM comparative analysis results showed statistically significant difference at SSS and TDE index (p<0.01). Conclusions: The perfusion defect of the Tl-201 myocardial perfusion SPECT was analyzed in not only the patient in whom it has the cardiovascular disease but also the patient in whom the possibility of the cardiovascular disease is few. In the comparison of the all group research, the mean of the TDE and SSS, 4DM was lower than QPS and ECT progrms. Each program showed good correlation and the results showed statistically significant difference. However, in this way, it is determined to be compatible about the analysis value in which the large-scale side between the programs uses each program a difference in a clinical in the Bland-Altman analyzed result in spite of the good correlation and cannot use. but, this analyzed result will be able to be usefully used as the reference material for the clinical read and is expected.

  • PDF

Review of Sexual Dysfunction in Male Schizophrenics (남자 정신분열병 환자에서 성기능장애에 대한 검토)

  • Choi, Yeong Tae;Cheon, Jin Sook;Oh, Byoung Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.85-98
    • /
    • 2000
  • Objective : There are four possible explanations for the sexual dysfunction of schizophrenics. The first is the possibility of a real structural aspect. The second possibility is that sexual function changes secondary to the illness. The third possibility is that there are medical and sociocultural barriers to sexual expression for chronic schizophrenics. The fourth possibility is that sexual dysfunction due to antipsychotic medication. However, we didn't know the precise cause of sexual dysfunction in schizophrenics. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to explore the mechanism of illness itself and antipsychotics on sexual dysfunction in male schizophrenics. Methods : The serum prolactin(PRL), testosterone(TST), and the plasma serotonin(5-HT) concentrations were measured by radioimmunoassay and high performance liquid chromatography method for 100 healthy male schizophrenics according to the DSM-IV. Concomitantly, the severity of psychotic symptoms using Clinical Global Impression(CGI), Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale(BPRS), Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale(PANSS), and the severity of side effects for antipsychotics using Extrapyramidal Side Effects Scale(EPSE), Anticholinergic Side Effects Scale(ACSE), the cognitive function using PANSS-Cognitive Function(PANSS-CF), Mini Mental State Exam-Korean(MMSE-K), and the sexual dysfunction using Sexual Functioning Questionnaire(SFQ), Questionnaire for Sexual Dysfunction in Men were assessed. The PRL, TST, and 5-HT levels of 50 healthy male controls who had no medical, neurological, and psychiatric illnesses were evaluated. The sexual function using SFQ(items FGa, FNa) were also assessed. Furthermore, the correlation with age, education, religion, economic status, age at onset, duration of illnesses, duration of admission, levels of PRL, TST, 5-HT, antipsychotic dosages, potency, benztropine, total duration of medication, EPSE, ACSE, CGI, BPRS, PANSS, PANSS-CF, MMSE-K and sexual dysfunctions were identified in male schizophrenics. Results : 1) The frequencies of sexual dysfunctions for schizophrenics(80%) were significantly(p<0.001) higher than those for controls(42%). The sexual dysfunctions according to sexual response cycle were 'low sexual desire' 76%, 'impairment of achieving erection' 75%, 'impairment of maintaining erection' 75%, 'impairment of obtaining orgasm' 32%, 'impairment in the quality of orgasm' 61%, 'impairment in quantity of ejaculate' 44%, 'premature ejaculation' 15%, and 'delayed ejaculation' 50%. 2) The PRL, 5-HT levels of schizophrenics($28.5{\pm}20.6ng/ml$, $298.5{\pm}89.1ng/ml$) were significantly(p<0.001) higher than those of controls($10{\pm}5.6ng/ml$, $169.2{\pm}37.8ng/ml$), while the TST levels of schizophrenics($4.3{\pm}1.5ng/ml$) and controls($4.5{\pm}1.2ng/ml$) were not significantly different. The sexual dysfunctions of schizophrenics who had abnormal 5-HT levels($4.7{\pm}1.3$ scores) were significantly(p<0.05) higher than those of who had normal 5-HT levels($3.8{\pm}1.6$ scores) on item D7. 3) The sexual dysfunctions of unmarried schizophrenics were significantly(p<0.01 : p<0.05) higher than those of married schizophrenics($6.1{\pm}2.8$ scores, $4.7{\pm}1.3$ scores on item FGa : ${\beta}$=-0.211 on item FNa). The sexual dysfunctions were positively correlated with the rise of 5-HT levels(r=0.209, p<0.05 on item D4 and r=0.241, p<0.05 on item D7), the higher age at onset(r=0.275, p<0.01 on item FNa : r=-0.202, p<0.05 on item FDa), the longer duration of illnesses(r=0.237, p<0.05 on item D6), the longer duration of admission(r=0.234, p<0.05 on item D4 : r=0.328, p<0.05 on item D6), the longer total duration of medication(r=0.237, p<0.05 on item D6). However, age, education, religion, economic status, PRL, TST levels, antipsychotics dosage, potency, benztropine, ACSE, CGI, BPRS, PANSS, PANSS-CF, MMSE-K scores were not correlated with increased sexual dysfunctions. Conclusions : Male schizophrenics have significantly more sexual dysfunction to compare with controls. The higher frequencies of sexual dysfunctions were low sexual desire and erectile disorder. The unmarried, higher age at onset, and longer duration of diseases were positively correlated with increased sexual dysfunctions. Also high 5-HT levels were positively correlated with increased sexual dysfunctions. This means that studies of plasma 5-HT levels, albeit questionable indicators of central 5-HT function, offer some additional support for the association of sexual dysfunction with excess 5-HT activity as primary pathology of schizophrenia. Our findings suggest that excess 5-HT activity seems to affect the patient's sexual function.

  • PDF

Relationship between Insomnia and Depression in Type 2 Diabetics (2형 당뇨병 환자에서 불면증과 우울 증상의 관련성)

  • Lee, Jin Hwan;Cheon, Jin Sook;Choi, Young Sik;Kim, Ho Chan;Oh, Byoung Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.50-59
    • /
    • 2019
  • Objectives : Many of the patients with type 2 diabetes are associated with sleep problems, and the rate of insomnia is known to be higher in the general population. The aims of this study were to know the frequency and clnical characteristics of insomnia, and related variables to insomnia in patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Methods : For 99 patients from 18 to 80 years of age (65 males and 34 females) with type 2 diabetes, interviews were performed. Total sleep time and sleep latency was evaluated. Insomnia was evaluated using the Korean Version of the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI-K). Severity of depressive symptoms were evaluted using the Korean version of the Hamilton Depression Scale (K-HDRM). According to the cutoff score of 15.5 on the ISI-K, subjects were divided into the group of type 2 diabetics with insomnia (N=34) and those without insomnia (N=65) at first, and then statistically analyzed. Results : TInsomnia could be found in 34.34% of type 2 diabetics. Type 2 diabetics with insomnia had significantly more single or divorced (respectively 11.8%, p<0.05), higher total scores of the K-HDRS ($11.76{\pm}5.52$, p<0.001), shorter total sleep time ($5.35{\pm}2.00hours$, p<0.001), and longer sleep latency ($50.29{\pm}33.80minutes$, p<0.001). The all item scores of the ISI-K in type 2 diabetics with insomnia were significantly higher than those in type 2 diabetics without insomnia, that is, total ($18.38{\pm}2.69$), A1 (Initial insomnia) ($2.97{\pm}0.76$), A2 (Middle insomnia) ($3.06{\pm}0.69$), A3 (Terminal insomnia) ($2.76{\pm}0.61$), B (Satisfaction) ($3.18{\pm}0.72$), C (Interference) ($2.09{\pm}0.97$), D (Noticeability) ($2.12{\pm}1.09$) and E (Distress) ($2.21{\pm}0.81$) (respectively p<0.001). Variables associated with insomnia in type 2 diabetics were as following. Age had significant negative correlation with A3 items of the ISI-K (${\beta}=-0.241$, p<0.05). Total scores of the K-HDRS had significant positive correlation, while total sleep time had significant negative correlation with all items of the ISI-K (respectively p<0.05). Sleep latency had significant positive correlation with total,, A1, B and E item scores of the ISI-K (respectively p<0.05). Conclusions : Insomnia was found in about 1/3 of type 2 diabetics. According to the presence of insomnia, clinical characteristics including sleep quality as well as quantity seemed to be different. Because depression seemed to be correlated with insomnia, clinicians should pay attention to early detection and intervention of depression among type 2 diabetics.

Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.67-83
    • /
    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

A Study on Forest Insurance (산림보험(山林保險)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Tai Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-38
    • /
    • 1972
  • 1. Objective of the Study The objective of the study was to make fundamental suggestions for drawing a forest insurance system applicable in Korea by investigating forest insurance systems undertaken in foreign countries, analyzing the forest hazards occurred in entire forests of Korea in the past, and hearing the opinions of people engaged in forestry. 2. Methods of the Study First, reference studies on insurance at large as well as on forest insurance were intensively made to draw the characteristics of forest insurance practiced in main forestry countries, Second, the investigations of forest hazards in Korea for the past ten years were made with the help of the Office of Forestry. Third, the questionnaires concerning forest insurance were prepared and delivered at random to 533 personnel who are working at different administrative offices of forestry, forest stations, forest cooperatives, colleges and universities, research institutes, and fire insurance companies. Fourth, fifty three representative forest owners in the area of three forest types (coniferous, hardwood, and mixed forest), a representative region in Kyonggi Province out of fourteen collective forest development programs in Korea, were directly interviewed with the writer. 3. Results of the Study The rate of response to the questionnaire was 74.40% as shown in the table 3, and the results of the questionaire were as follows: (% in the parenthes shows the rates of response; shortages in amount to 100% were due to the facts of excluding the rates of response of minor respondents). 1) Necessity of forest insurance The respondents expressed their opinions that forest insurance must be undertaken to assure forest financing (5.65%); for receiving the reimbursement of replanting costs in case of damages done (35.87%); and to protect silvicultural investments (46.74%). 2) Law of forest insurance Few respondents showed their views in favor of applying the general insurance regulations to forest insurance practice (9.35%), but the majority of respondents were in favor of passing a special forest insurance law in the light of forest characteristics (88.26%). 3) Sorts of institutes to undertake forest insurance A few respondents believed that insurance companies at large could take care of forest insurance (17.42%); forest owner's mutual associations would manage the forest insurance more effectively (23.53%); but the more than half of the respondents were in favor of establishing public or national forest insurance institutes (56.18%). 4) Kinds of risks to be undertaken in forest insurance It would be desirable that the risks to be undertaken in forest insurance be limited: To forest fire hazards only (23.38%); to forest fire hazards plus damages made by weather (14.32%); to forest fire hazards, weather damages, and insect damages (60.68%). 5) Objectives to be insured It was responded that the objectives to be included in forest insurance should be limited: (1) To artificial coniferous forest only (13.47%); (2) to both coniferous and broad-leaved artificial forests (23.74%); (3) but the more than half of the respondents showed their desire that all the forests regardless of species and the methods of establishment should be insured (61.64%). 6) Range of risks in age of trees to be included in forest insurance The opinions of the respondents showed that it might be enough to insure the trees less than ten years of age (15.23%); but it would be more desirous of taking up forest trees under twenty years of age (32.95%); nevertheless, a large number of respondents were in favor of underwriting all the forest trees less than fourty years of age (46.37%). 7) Term of a forest insurance contract Quite a few respondents favored a contract made on one year basis (31.74%), but the more than half of the respondents favored the contract made on five year bases (58.68%). 8) Limitation in a forest insurance contract The respondents indicated that it would be desirable in a forest insurance contract to exclude forests less than five hectars (20.78%), but more than half of the respondents expressed their opinions that forests above a minimum volume or number of trees per unit area should be included in a forest insurance contract regardless of the area of forest lands (63.77%). 9) Methods of contract Some responded that it would be good to let the forest owners choose their forests in making a forest insurance contract (32.13%); others inclined to think that it would be desirable to include all the forests that owners hold whenerver they decide to make a forest insurance contract (33.48%); the rest responded in favor of forcing the owners to buy insurance policy if they own the forests that were established with subsidy or own highly vauable growing stock (31.92%) 10) Rate of premium The responses were divided into three categories: (1) The rate of primium is to be decided according to the regional degree of risks(27.72%); (2) to be decided by taking consideration both regional degree of risks and insurable values(31.59%); (3) and to be decided according to the rate of risks for the entire country and the insurable values (39.55%). 11) Payment of Premium Although a few respondents wished to make a payment of premium at once for a short term forest insurance contract, and an annual payment for a long term contract (13.80%); the majority of the respondents wished to pay the premium annually regardless of the term of contract, by employing a high rate of premium on a short term contract, but a low rate on a long term contract (83.71%). 12) Institutes in charge of forest insurance business A few respondents showed their desire that forest insurance be taken care of at the government forest administrative offices (18.75%); others at insurance companies (35.76%); but the rest, the largest number of the respondents, favored forest associations in the county. They also wanted to pay a certain rate of premium to the forest associations that issue the insurance (44.22%). 13) Limitation on indemnity for damages done In limitation on indemnity for damages done, the respondents showed a quite different views. Some desired compesation to cover replanting costs when young stands suffered damages and to be paid at the rate of eighty percent to the losses received when matured timber stands suffered damages(29.70%); others desired to receive compensation of the actual total loss valued at present market prices (31.07%); but the rest responded in favor of compensation at the present value figured out by applying a certain rate of prolongation factors to the establishment costs(36.99%). 14) Raising of funds for forest insurance A few respondents hoped to raise the fund for forest insurance by setting aside certain amount of money from the indemnity paid (15.65%); others wished to raise the fund by levying new forest land taxes(33.79%); but the rest expressed their hope to raise the fund by reserving certain amount of money from the surplus money that was saved due to the non-risks (44.81%). 15) Causes of fires The main causes of forest fires 6gured out by the respondents experience turned out to be (1) an accidental fire, (2) cigarettes, (3) shifting cultivation. The reponses were coincided with the forest fire analysis made by the Office of Forestry. 16) Fire prevention The respondents suggested that the most important and practical three kinds of forest fire prevention measures would be (1) providing a fire-break, (2) keeping passers-by out during the drought seasons, (3) enlightenment through mass communication systems. 4. Suggestions The writer wishes to present some suggestions that seemed helpful in drawing up a forest insurance system by reviewing the findings in the questionaire analysis and the results of investigations on forest insurance undertaken in foreign countries. 1) A forest insurance system designed to compensate the loss figured out on the basis of replanting cost when young forest stands suffered damages, and to strengthen credit rating by relieving of risks of damages, must be put in practice as soon as possible with the enactment of a specifically drawn forest insurance law. And the committee of forest insurance should be organized to make a full study of forest insurance system. 2) Two kinds of forest insurance organizations furnishing forest insurance, publicly-owned insurance organizations and privately-owned, are desirable in order to handle forest risks properly. The privately-owned forest insurance organizations should take up forest fire insurance only, and the publicly-owned ought to write insurance for forest fires and insect damages. 3) The privately-owned organizations furnishing forest insurance are desired to take up all the forest stands older than twenty years; whereas, the publicly-owned should sell forest insurance on artificially planted stands younger than twenty years with emphasis on compensating replanting costs of forest stands when they suffer damages. 4) Small forest stands, less than one hectare holding volume or stocked at smaller than standard per unit area are not to be included in a forest insurance writing, and the minimum term of insuring should not be longer than one year in the privately-owned forest insurance organizations although insuring period could be extended more than one year; whereas, consecutive five year term of insurance periods should be set as a mimimum period of insuring forest in the publicly-owned forest insurance organizations. 5) The forest owners should be free in selecting their forests in insuring; whereas, forest owners of the stands that were established with subsidy should be required to insure their forests at publicly-owned forest insurance organizations. 6) Annual insurance premiums for both publicly-owned and privately-owned forest insurance organizations ought to be figured out in proportion to the amount of insurance in accordance with the degree of risks which are grouped into three categories on the basis of the rate of risks throughout the country. 7) Annual premium should be paid at the beginning of forest insurance contract, but reduction must be made if the insuring periods extend longer than a minimum period of forest insurance set by the law. 8) The compensation for damages, the reimbursement, should be figured out on the basis of the ratio between the amount of insurance and insurable value. In the publicly-owned forest insurance system, the standard amount of insurance should be set on the basis of establishment costs in order to prevent over-compensation. 9) Forest insurance business is to be taken care of at the window of insurance com pnies when forest owners buy the privately-owned forest insurance, but the business of writing the publicly-owned forest insurance should be done through the forest cooperatives and certain portions of the premium be reimbursed to the forest cooperatives. 10) Forest insurance funds ought to be reserved by levying a property tax on forest lands. 11) In order to prevent forest damages, the forest owners should be required to report forest hazards immediately to the forest insurance organizations and the latter should bear the responsibility of taking preventive measures.

  • PDF